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RESULTS	
  MEASUREMENT	
  
Proving and Improving Results
Proving	
  Results	
  

Improving	
  Results	
  

M&E	
  system	
  
capable	
  of	
  credibly	
  
demonstra5ng	
  
programme	
  
results	
  

M&E	
  system	
  
supports	
  improved	
  
design	
  and	
  
implementa5on	
  of	
  
interven5ons	
  
System	
  Requirements	
  

ü Well	
  defined	
  indicators	
  
ü Robust	
  measurement	
  tools	
  
ü Robust	
  monitoring	
  plan	
  
ü Baselines	
  
ü Credible	
  a>ribu5on	
  strategy	
  
ü Credible	
  aggrega5on	
  strategy	
  

ü M&E	
  system	
  generates	
  5mely	
  and	
  
relevant	
  informa5on	
  for	
  management	
  
ü Knowledge	
  management	
  
M&E in a Market Systems Context
Market	
  development	
  programmes	
  explicitly	
  acknowledge	
  
that	
  systems	
  are	
  complex	
  
•  M&E	
  needs	
  to	
  integrate	
  complexity	
  into	
  the	
  way	
  it	
  
funcEons,	
  including	
  accommodaEng	
  for:	
  
• 

• 
• 
• 

FormulaEng	
  and	
  tesEng	
  assumpEons,	
  piloEng	
  intervenEons,	
  
proceeding	
  by	
  trial	
  and	
  error	
  
Scaling-­‐up	
  intervenEons	
  that	
  work,	
  modifying	
  or	
  dropping	
  
intervenEons	
  that	
  do	
  not	
  work	
  
Providing	
  credible	
  evidence	
  on	
  sustainability,	
  systemic	
  change	
  and	
  
poverty	
  reducEon	
  
Implications
• 

TradiEonal	
  approaches	
  to	
  M&E	
  are	
  insufficient	
  in	
  market	
  
systems	
  context:	
  
•  Measure	
  results	
  only	
  at	
  the	
  middle	
  and	
  end	
  of	
  the	
  
programme	
  
•  M&E	
  divorced	
  from	
  management	
  funcEon	
  
•  M&E	
  system	
  uses	
  LogFrame	
  only	
  
•  “EvaluaEon”	
  seen	
  as	
  an	
  external	
  acEvity	
  only	
  
•  Use	
  of	
  Randomised	
  Control	
  Trials	
  
Impact Profiles
High-­‐level	
  Impact	
  

SCALE	
  

SUSTAINABILITY	
  

• Market	
  development	
  
programmes	
  will	
  have	
  
different	
  impact	
  profiles	
  
• Can	
  take	
  1-­‐3	
  years	
  to	
  
deliver	
  high-­‐level	
  impact	
  
• Progress	
  can	
  be	
  bumpy!	
  

Time	
  
Project	
  LifeEme	
  

Market	
  Development	
  
Direct	
  Delivery	
  
RESULTS MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

	
  
	
  
	
  

• Theory	
  of	
  Change	
  
• Results	
  Chains	
  
• Monitoring	
  Plans	
  
WHAT IS A THEORY OF CHANGE?
	
  
Theories	
  of	
  Change	
  posit	
  the	
  underlying	
  causes	
  
that	
  are	
  driving	
  poor	
  performance	
  and	
  resul5ng	
  
limited	
  benefits	
  accruing	
  to	
  the	
  poor.	
  	
  
	
  
Theories	
  of	
  Change	
  then	
  provide	
  an	
  overview	
  of	
  
the	
  systemic	
  change	
  needed	
  to	
  improve	
  
performance,	
  with	
  a	
  specific	
  focus	
  on	
  how	
  the	
  
poor	
  will	
  benefit	
  from	
  improved	
  performance.	
  
Monitoring & Results Measurement Cycle
Theory	
  of	
  
Change	
  
1.	
  Draw	
  Interven5on	
  
Results	
  Chain	
  

7.	
  Report	
  
Results	
  

8.	
  Knowledge	
  
Management	
  

6.	
  Data	
  
Analysis	
  

2.	
  Define	
  
Indicators	
  

3.	
  Establish	
  
Baseline	
  

5.	
  Data	
  
Collec5on	
  

4.	
  Predict	
  
Results	
  
Results Chains
Results	
  Chains	
  map	
  the	
  systemic	
  change	
  process	
  of	
  an	
  
intervenEon	
  	
  
•  RCs	
  are	
  more	
  granular	
  and	
  flexible	
  than	
  LogFrames	
  
•  RCs	
  are	
  a	
  key	
  design	
  and	
  monitoring	
  tool	
  
• 

	
  

Best	
  PracEce:	
  
•  RCs	
  developed	
  jointly	
  by	
  the	
  M&E	
  team	
  and	
  

intervenEon	
  team	
  
•  Every	
  RC	
  includes	
  boxes	
  to	
  capture	
  systemic	
  
change:	
  sustainability,	
  copying	
  /	
  crowding-­‐in	
  
Results Chains: Basic Structure
Impact	
  on	
  poor	
  
men	
  and	
  women	
  

• Increased	
  incomes;	
  more	
  secure	
  livelihoods	
  
• Job	
  crea5on	
  
• Economic	
  empowerment	
  

Enterprise	
  
performance	
  

• Improved	
  produc5vity/compe55veness	
  
• E.g.	
  improved	
  yields	
  for	
  small-­‐holder	
  farmers	
  

System-­‐level	
  
change	
  

Ac5vi5es	
  

• Improved	
  linkages	
  between	
  system	
  actors	
  
• Improved	
  market	
  access	
  
• Changes	
  in	
  formal/informal	
  rules	
  
• Introduc5on	
  of	
  new/improved	
  interconnected	
  
systems	
  (e.g.	
  policy,	
  inputs,	
  finance,	
  ICT)	
  
• Programme	
  facilita5on	
  ac5vi5es	
  
Small-­‐holders	
  apply	
  new	
  
prac5ces	
  
Small-­‐holders	
  access	
  new	
  
services	
  
Copying	
  by	
  non-­‐project	
  
supported	
  Millers	
  

Millers	
  increase	
  
incomes	
  

Miller	
  delivers	
  embedded	
  
services	
  to	
  small-­‐holders	
  
Miller	
  adopts	
  new	
  supply	
  chain	
  
prac5ces	
  (incl	
  performance	
  
incen5ves	
  and	
  transparent	
  pricing)	
  
Project	
  facilitates	
  strategic	
  
planning	
  process	
  on	
  new	
  
supply	
  chain	
  prac5ces	
  
Project	
  iden5fies	
  Millers	
  
willing	
  to	
  adopt	
  new	
  supply	
  
chain	
  strategy	
  

IMPACT	
  
ACTIVITIES	
  

Targeted	
  small-­‐holders	
  
achieve	
  higher	
  yields	
  &	
  sales	
  

Copying	
  by	
  non-­‐targeted	
  
Small-­‐holders	
  

ENTERPRISE	
  
PERFORMANCE	
  

Targeted	
  small-­‐holders	
  
increase	
  incomes	
  

SYSTEM	
  CHANGE	
  

SYSTEMIC	
  CHANGE	
  
Establishing Baseline
To	
  assess	
  change,	
  you	
  need	
  to	
  establish	
  a	
  baseline	
  for	
  
each	
  indicator	
  
•  Common	
  mispercepEon	
  is	
  to	
  conduct	
  one	
  big	
  baseline	
  
study	
  of	
  the	
  target	
  populaEon	
  at	
  the	
  beginning	
  of	
  the	
  
programme	
  
• 

“Treatment”	
  group	
  is	
  hard	
  to	
  define	
  at	
  start	
  	
  
AUribuEon	
  consideraEons	
  can	
  be	
  difficult	
  to	
  understand	
  at	
  
start	
  
•  SomeEmes	
  necessary	
  to	
  conduct	
  retrospecEve	
  baselines	
  
• 
• 

• 

Best	
  pracEce:	
  targeted	
  baselines	
  conducted	
  for	
  each	
  
intervenEon,	
  based	
  on	
  clear	
  understanding	
  of	
  change	
  
process	
  
Predicting Results
• 

Predict	
  results	
  for	
  each	
  box	
  in	
  the	
  Results	
  Chain:	
  
What	
  change	
  do	
  you	
  expect?	
  
•  By	
  when?	
  
• 

• 

PredicEng	
  results	
  helps	
  with:	
  

Planning	
  data	
  collecEon	
  
•  TesEng	
  the	
  underlying	
  logic	
  and	
  making	
  	
  
•  	
   assumpEons	
  explicit	
  
•  Monitoring	
  progress	
  	
  
• 

• 

Best	
  pracEce:	
  predicted	
  impact	
  is	
  used	
  to	
  decide	
  
whether	
  to	
  proceed	
  with	
  an	
  intervenEon	
  or	
  not	
  –	
  
intervenEons	
  that	
  offer	
  low	
  predicted	
  Value	
  for	
  
Money	
  (VFM)	
  are	
  dropped	
  or	
  modified	
  
Predicting Results: Rice Example
Average	
  income	
  increase	
  by	
  20%	
  for	
  50	
  Smallholders	
  during	
  
first	
  season	
  
Average	
  yields	
  increase	
  by	
  20%	
  for	
  50	
  Smallholders	
  during	
  
first	
  season	
  
50	
  Smallholders	
  accept	
  service	
  condi5ons	
  	
  
Miller	
  offers	
  services	
  to	
  200	
  Smallholders	
  during	
  first	
  season	
  
1	
  Miller	
  adopts	
  new	
  model	
  
Project	
  supports	
  2	
  Millers	
  
Applying Degrees of Evidence
MSE/Household	
  level:	
  May	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  aUribute	
  
changes	
  to	
  project	
  intervenEon	
  through	
  
staEsEcal	
  and	
  qualitaEve	
  research	
  
Market	
  system	
  level:	
  Use	
  qualitaEve	
  techniques	
  
to	
  determine	
  preponderance	
  of	
  evidence	
  on	
  
effecEveness	
  at	
  market	
  level	
  
Triangulate	
  evidence	
  from	
  all	
  sources	
  
	
  
Summary Check-list
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

M&E	
  system	
  is	
  capable	
  of	
  “proving”	
  and	
  “improving”	
  results	
  
Every	
  intervenEon	
  has	
  a	
  clear	
  results	
  chain	
  
Specific	
  and	
  measureable	
  indicators	
  are	
  defined	
  for	
  each	
  box	
  
in	
  the	
  results	
  chain	
  
Baselines	
  are	
  established	
  for	
  each	
  indicator	
  
Predicted	
  results	
  produced	
  for	
  each	
  intervenEon	
  
Every	
  intervenEon	
  has	
  a	
  measurement	
  plan,	
  with	
  
appropriate	
  aUribuEon	
  strategy	
  
Data	
  analysis	
  is	
  Emely	
  and	
  accessible	
  
Management	
  decisions	
  are	
  made	
  on	
  the	
  basis	
  of	
  evidence/
results	
  
Results	
  are	
  aggregated	
  (controlling	
  for	
  overlap)	
  and	
  reported	
  
in	
  an	
  accessible	
  way	
  

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Results measurement

  • 2. Proving and Improving Results Proving  Results   Improving  Results   M&E  system   capable  of  credibly   demonstra5ng   programme   results   M&E  system   supports  improved   design  and   implementa5on  of   interven5ons   System  Requirements   ü Well  defined  indicators   ü Robust  measurement  tools   ü Robust  monitoring  plan   ü Baselines   ü Credible  a>ribu5on  strategy   ü Credible  aggrega5on  strategy   ü M&E  system  generates  5mely  and   relevant  informa5on  for  management   ü Knowledge  management  
  • 3. M&E in a Market Systems Context Market  development  programmes  explicitly  acknowledge   that  systems  are  complex   •  M&E  needs  to  integrate  complexity  into  the  way  it   funcEons,  including  accommodaEng  for:   •  •  •  •  FormulaEng  and  tesEng  assumpEons,  piloEng  intervenEons,   proceeding  by  trial  and  error   Scaling-­‐up  intervenEons  that  work,  modifying  or  dropping   intervenEons  that  do  not  work   Providing  credible  evidence  on  sustainability,  systemic  change  and   poverty  reducEon  
  • 4. Implications •  TradiEonal  approaches  to  M&E  are  insufficient  in  market   systems  context:   •  Measure  results  only  at  the  middle  and  end  of  the   programme   •  M&E  divorced  from  management  funcEon   •  M&E  system  uses  LogFrame  only   •  “EvaluaEon”  seen  as  an  external  acEvity  only   •  Use  of  Randomised  Control  Trials  
  • 5. Impact Profiles High-­‐level  Impact   SCALE   SUSTAINABILITY   • Market  development   programmes  will  have   different  impact  profiles   • Can  take  1-­‐3  years  to   deliver  high-­‐level  impact   • Progress  can  be  bumpy!   Time   Project  LifeEme   Market  Development   Direct  Delivery  
  • 6. RESULTS MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK       • Theory  of  Change   • Results  Chains   • Monitoring  Plans  
  • 7. WHAT IS A THEORY OF CHANGE?   Theories  of  Change  posit  the  underlying  causes   that  are  driving  poor  performance  and  resul5ng   limited  benefits  accruing  to  the  poor.       Theories  of  Change  then  provide  an  overview  of   the  systemic  change  needed  to  improve   performance,  with  a  specific  focus  on  how  the   poor  will  benefit  from  improved  performance.  
  • 8. Monitoring & Results Measurement Cycle Theory  of   Change   1.  Draw  Interven5on   Results  Chain   7.  Report   Results   8.  Knowledge   Management   6.  Data   Analysis   2.  Define   Indicators   3.  Establish   Baseline   5.  Data   Collec5on   4.  Predict   Results  
  • 9. Results Chains Results  Chains  map  the  systemic  change  process  of  an   intervenEon     •  RCs  are  more  granular  and  flexible  than  LogFrames   •  RCs  are  a  key  design  and  monitoring  tool   •    Best  PracEce:   •  RCs  developed  jointly  by  the  M&E  team  and   intervenEon  team   •  Every  RC  includes  boxes  to  capture  systemic   change:  sustainability,  copying  /  crowding-­‐in  
  • 10. Results Chains: Basic Structure Impact  on  poor   men  and  women   • Increased  incomes;  more  secure  livelihoods   • Job  crea5on   • Economic  empowerment   Enterprise   performance   • Improved  produc5vity/compe55veness   • E.g.  improved  yields  for  small-­‐holder  farmers   System-­‐level   change   Ac5vi5es   • Improved  linkages  between  system  actors   • Improved  market  access   • Changes  in  formal/informal  rules   • Introduc5on  of  new/improved  interconnected   systems  (e.g.  policy,  inputs,  finance,  ICT)   • Programme  facilita5on  ac5vi5es  
  • 11. Small-­‐holders  apply  new   prac5ces   Small-­‐holders  access  new   services   Copying  by  non-­‐project   supported  Millers   Millers  increase   incomes   Miller  delivers  embedded   services  to  small-­‐holders   Miller  adopts  new  supply  chain   prac5ces  (incl  performance   incen5ves  and  transparent  pricing)   Project  facilitates  strategic   planning  process  on  new   supply  chain  prac5ces   Project  iden5fies  Millers   willing  to  adopt  new  supply   chain  strategy   IMPACT   ACTIVITIES   Targeted  small-­‐holders   achieve  higher  yields  &  sales   Copying  by  non-­‐targeted   Small-­‐holders   ENTERPRISE   PERFORMANCE   Targeted  small-­‐holders   increase  incomes   SYSTEM  CHANGE   SYSTEMIC  CHANGE  
  • 12. Establishing Baseline To  assess  change,  you  need  to  establish  a  baseline  for   each  indicator   •  Common  mispercepEon  is  to  conduct  one  big  baseline   study  of  the  target  populaEon  at  the  beginning  of  the   programme   •  “Treatment”  group  is  hard  to  define  at  start     AUribuEon  consideraEons  can  be  difficult  to  understand  at   start   •  SomeEmes  necessary  to  conduct  retrospecEve  baselines   •  •  •  Best  pracEce:  targeted  baselines  conducted  for  each   intervenEon,  based  on  clear  understanding  of  change   process  
  • 13. Predicting Results •  Predict  results  for  each  box  in  the  Results  Chain:   What  change  do  you  expect?   •  By  when?   •  •  PredicEng  results  helps  with:   Planning  data  collecEon   •  TesEng  the  underlying  logic  and  making     •    assumpEons  explicit   •  Monitoring  progress     •  •  Best  pracEce:  predicted  impact  is  used  to  decide   whether  to  proceed  with  an  intervenEon  or  not  –   intervenEons  that  offer  low  predicted  Value  for   Money  (VFM)  are  dropped  or  modified  
  • 14. Predicting Results: Rice Example Average  income  increase  by  20%  for  50  Smallholders  during   first  season   Average  yields  increase  by  20%  for  50  Smallholders  during   first  season   50  Smallholders  accept  service  condi5ons     Miller  offers  services  to  200  Smallholders  during  first  season   1  Miller  adopts  new  model   Project  supports  2  Millers  
  • 15. Applying Degrees of Evidence MSE/Household  level:  May  be  able  to  aUribute   changes  to  project  intervenEon  through   staEsEcal  and  qualitaEve  research   Market  system  level:  Use  qualitaEve  techniques   to  determine  preponderance  of  evidence  on   effecEveness  at  market  level   Triangulate  evidence  from  all  sources    
  • 16. Summary Check-list •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  M&E  system  is  capable  of  “proving”  and  “improving”  results   Every  intervenEon  has  a  clear  results  chain   Specific  and  measureable  indicators  are  defined  for  each  box   in  the  results  chain   Baselines  are  established  for  each  indicator   Predicted  results  produced  for  each  intervenEon   Every  intervenEon  has  a  measurement  plan,  with   appropriate  aUribuEon  strategy   Data  analysis  is  Emely  and  accessible   Management  decisions  are  made  on  the  basis  of  evidence/ results   Results  are  aggregated  (controlling  for  overlap)  and  reported   in  an  accessible  way