A series of slides from the NGSA that shows, in essence, they believe the short-term summer price for natural gas in the U.S. to rise over last summer because of depleted stores of natural gas. It will take extra capacity to bump up the "gas in storage" and because of the increased demand, the NGSA says the price will tick up.

1. Summer Outlook
Cooling Season
2014
1

2.  Looking Ahead to Summer 2014
 Market pressure points: demand, economy, weather,
storage & production
 Wild card factors
 Summer expectations
 Summary
2014 Summer Outlook: Outline
2

3. Understanding the Symbols
3
Upward market pressure
Flat market pressure
Downward market pressure

4. Market Pressure Points
2014
4

5. Last Summer
2013 ACTUAL
This Summer
2014 FORECAST
Actual season:
6% cooler than 2012
5% warmer than 30-year average
1,293 Cooling degree days
1% warmer than last year
6% warmer than 30-year average
Summer-to-summer pressure
on natural gas prices
5
Source: NOAA forecast map, May 2014
1,306 Cooling degree days
Weather Demand: Summer SeasonData source: NOAA, EVA

6. 6
Summer Season Last Summer
Period-to-period change 2013
Data source: IHS Global Insight ACTUAL
Summer
2014
FORECAST
Economy Fell short of
expectations Expanding
GDP growth 1.8% 2.4%
Unemployment rate 7.4% 6.5%
Manufacturing 2.4% 3.6%
CPI 1.5% 2.0%
Consumer Sentiment Index 81.6 86.5
Summer-to-summer pressure
on natural gas prices
Pressure Point: Economy/Demand

7. 7
Summer Season Last Summer
Period-to-period change 2013
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; EVA ACTUAL
Summer
2014
FORECAST
Total Demand
 Industrial demand
 Electric demand
 Residential/commercial
60.2 Bcf/d
19.4 Bcf/d
23.8 Bcf/d
11.4 Bcf/d
60.4 Bcf/d
20.3 Bcf/d
23.1 Bcf/d
11.4 Bcf/d
Change from previous year +0.3%
Growth sector
Residential/
Commercial
Industrial
Summer-to-summer pressure
on natural gas prices
Overall Gas Demand/Consumption

8. 8
Note: 2010, 2011 and 2012 denote very hot summers. Coal-to-gas switching in 2014 is forecasted. Source: EVA, May 2014
Portion of Electric Demand Attributable to
Coal-to-Gas Switching Follows Price

9. 9
Source: Energy Ventures Analysis, Outlook for Natural Gas Demand for the Summer of
2014, Exhibit 14 “New U.S. Generation Capacity”
Steady Growth in New Natural Gas-fired
Generation Capacity 2010-2015

10. 10
Total = 4.7 BCF/DAY
Majority of Industrial Growth Occurs in
Fertilizer, Gas-to-Liquids Sectors
Growth by industrial application 2010-2019
Source: Energy Ventures Analysis, 2014

11. 11
Storage/Demand
Summer Season
Period-to-period change
Data source: EIA, EVA
Last Summer
2013
ACTUAL
Summer
2014
FORECAST
Season starting point
(billion cubic feet)
1,687 Bcf 826 Bcf
Average weekly injections 68 Bcf
83 Bcf
projected
End-of injection season 3,816 Bcf
3,400 Bcf
projected
Summer-to-summer pressure
on natural gas prices

12. 12
Note: 2014 is estimated.
Source: EIA and EVA, 2014
Storage Injections 2003-2014
Record-breaking Storage Injections Projected

13. 13
Source: EIA and EVA, 2014
Total = 4.4 Tcf
Two-thirds of Storage Near Consumers
Producing Region Characterized by Flexible Salt Dome Storage

14. 14
Summer Season
Period-to-period change
Data source: EIA, EVA
Last Summer
2013
ACTUAL
Summer
2014
FORECAST
Summer average production 66.6 Bcf/d 68.5 Bcf/d
Canadian imports (net) 5.0 Bcf/d 5.0 Bcf/d
LNG imports 0.3 Bcf/d 0.3 Bcf/d
Mexican exports -1.8 Bcf/d -1.9 Bcf/d
Summer-to-summer pressure
on natural gas prices
Production/Supply

15. 15
Summer Outlook: Wild Cards
 Hot summer could increase electric demand
 End to California drought /mild summer could
decrease electric demand
 Very active hurricane/storm season

16. 16
Summer Season
Period-to-period change
This Summer
2014 FORECAST
Weather
Economy
Overall demand
Storage
Overall supply
Summer 2013-to-summer 2014
Pressure on natural gas prices
This Season’s Summer Outlook

17. 17
Summary
 Increase in natural gas supplies supporting continued
industrial and electric growth
 Natural gas serving demand and storage needs at
record pace
 Fuel switching persists for sixth straight summer -- but
retreats to 2010 levels

18. Summer Outlook
Cooling Season
2014
18
NGSA Staff Contact:
Daphne Magnuson
dmagnuson@ngsa.org