This presentation discusses the scalability of telecom networks from a Indian telecom operator in terms of investments, technology - standards and Broad Industry perspective.

1. Scalability challenge of Telecom networks
The India Perspective
Manas Ganguly
31st January 2014

2. Generations of Cellular Technology
1G
2G
2.5G
GPRS
1xRTT
1983
Voice
1991
SMS
1997
Internet
on the
move
2.75G
3G
3.5G
EDGE
eGPRS
UMTS
W-CDMA
EVDO
Rev.A
HSPA
HSDPA
HSUPA
EVDO
Rev.B
HSPA+
WiMAX
1999
2003
2008
High
Speed
data
Video
4G
5G
LTE
TDD LTE
FDD LTE
Cognitive
Radio
2009
2020
???
AI

3. Telecommunication System & Standards
3GPP
802.11
802.16/-2009/m
HSPA+ 21 – 672Mbps
802.11 a
802.11 b
802.11 g
6-54Mbps
1-11Mbps
6-54Mbps
CDMA 2000
GSM
HIPERMAN/ 802.20
1Gbps
802.11 n
802.11 ac
7.2150Mbps
87.6866.7Mbps
WiMax Rel. 1
WiMax Rel. 1.5
WiMax Rel 2
37Mbps
83Mbps
110-365Mbps
Flash OFDM (Mobility upto 200 mph)
Flash - OFDM
UMTS/3GSM
LTE Advanced
LTE 100-300Mbps
5.3- 15.9Mbps
UMTS/ WCDMA
UMTS TDD
.384Kbps-14.4Mbps
16Mbps
Rev.0
Rev.A
Rev.B
2.4Mbps
3.1Mbps
14.7Mbps
GPRS
EDGE
Enhanced EDGE
116 Kbps
116-384Kbps
400Kbps – 1Mbps
HIPERMAN
iBurst /802.2 (Cell Radius 3-12 kms)
56.9Mbps
95Mbps

4. Spectrum, Technology and Standards
2100/ SBand
LTE UTRAN
LTE TDD
UMTS
HSPA+
GSM
CDMA
1900/ PCS
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
AWS/+(2.1
1800/DCS & 1.8 GHz)
P
P
850/+ /
JTACS
2600
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
1500 U/L/ L
700
900 /TACS
Band
ac/c/PS/BC 800 L/U/DD
P
P
P
P
3500
2500
2000 S
Band
P
P
P
1900+
P
P
P
P
P
800/SMR/P
AMR
700APT/de 2300 WCS
P
P
P
450
390
400 PMAR
1800 PCS / European
Korea
PMR
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
1900
LTE UTRAN
LTE TDD
UMTS
HSPA+
GSM
CDMA
1600 L
band
2000
PCS L/U/C
2300
2500
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
2600
3400
P
3600
P
P
P
P
http://niviuk.free.fr/index.html
P

5. Wireless Broadband: Fast Facts
•
•
•
Mobile broadband network deployments
– 532 commercially launched HSPA networks in 203 countries
– 84% of networks support peak downlink of at least 7.2Mbps
– 338 (i.e over 63%) are HSPA+ networks
– 145 (27% of HSPA operators) commercially launched 42Mbps DC-HSPA+ systems in 75 countries
LTE is mainstream
– 508 operators investing in LTE in 144 countries
– 456 network commitments + 52 pre-commit trials
– 263 commercially launched networks/ 97 countries including 28 LTE TDD (TD-LTE)
– 75% YoY
– 1371 LTE user devices launched (by 132 suppliers)
– 705 new products in the past year
– Includes 483 LTE 1800 terminals
– Includes 304 products supporting TDD mode
– 533 LTE smartphones representing 39% share of all devices
Mobile broadband subscriptions
– 1.373 billion WCDMA subs including HSPA
– 157.7 million LTE subs (110.1 million growth in 12 months)

6. •
•
•
•
•
•
705 new LTE devices in 12 months
Number of OEMs: +52% YoY
533 LTE smartphones (39% share of all LTE devices)
42 VoLTE phones
304 LTE TDD User devices
142 Category 4 terminals
Data: GSMA January 24th 2014
304 LTE TDD User Devices
1068 LTE FDD User Devices
LTE Devices Eco-System: 1371 user devices
1800 MHz Band 3 is the most
popular band for LTE deployments
and is poised to have the largest
user devices eco-system

7. The dichotomy of convergence & divergence: The LTE
conundrum
•
•
•
•
•
Harmony : Converging GSM and CDMA?
Complexity: 41 Bands
Scale: CMCC and Jio
Compromises: 2300MHz, Really now?
Trade-offs: Hazards, Investments

8. Indian Telecom
iGDP expected to hit $100 billion by 2015
Internet Subs
Mobility Subs
EOY 2012
135 mln
864 mln
EOY 2013
205+ mln
904 mln
Indian Telecom Vital Stats: COAI/TRAI
•
•
•
No. of Mobile Internet Users: IAMAI
Internet subs - 330 million by 2015
Internet’s contribution to India’s GDP to
grow from 1.6% in 2011 to 3.4% in
2015.
The Indian Telecom Industry accounts
for 13% subscriptions & 2.3% share of
the global telecom revenue.
Source: McKinsey
Smartphone versus Mobile Phone shipments: CMR

9. Indian Telecom: 2G versus 3G
India currently has amongst the lowest wireless broadband penetration in the Asia-Pacific below Malaysia, Philippines
and China and nearly equal to Pakistan.
Merely 16% of ARPU coming from data. Comparison: Japan (64%) , Australia (50%), Indonesia (41%), Malaysia (38%),
China (35%) and even Thailand (22%).

10. Indian Telecom: Current Status
•
•
•
•
Policy Enablers: 2013
– Mergers and acquisitions policy: Dominant players can now hold up-to 50% telecom
market shares.
– Foreign equity participation of 100% in Telecom sector
Low cost driving reach and affordability would be critical but a derivative of a favorable Tax
regime.
– Telecom tower companies given slew of benefits (gap funding, external commercial
borrowing, lower import duties, excise exemptions) with Infrastructure status is a major
step forward in this direction.
Telecom players were looking for market capitalization and consolidation.
– The operators have started to focus on subscriber quality and have done away with the
lucrative dealer commissions and promotional minutes.
– After 2008, for the first time, India has witnessed a surge in voice tariff
Spectrum Re-farming, Lopsided M&A rules

11. Indian Telecom: Current Status
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rs.1,48,792 – Cellular Mobile Industry
Rs.2,50,000 – Industry Debt
Regulatory costs including service tax, license fee,
graded spectrum usage charge and revised
spectrum variable price equals nearly 40% of the
customer tariff
In 2012, Indian telecom sector’s EBITDA was 15%,
comparing poorly with a 36.1% average for Asia’s
telecom sector.
High debt, coupled with regulatory and policy uncertainities have affected long term investments
Average voice tariffs of roughly 35 paise/minute
(arguably the world’s lowest) are responsible for
this wide mismatch between 13% subscriptions
and 2.3% share of the global revenue.
Further, telecom tariffs, the industry points out,
have dropped 30% in the last 4 years, even in the
face of annual inflation of 7-8%.

12. Impact of Spectrum/Band on Network Costs
700MHz
1900MHz
2400MHz
Number of cells per unit
area
1
4
10
Total Network Cost @
$150K/Cell
$1,50,000
$6,00,000
$15,00,000
Network Cost per
Customer
$180
$725
$1820
No.of months for break
even
9 months
36 months
91 months
Cell Radius (Ideal)
10kms
5.5kms
4.7kms
Cell Circle Coverage Area
(Comparative)
1
.3
.22
Source: Aloha Partners

13. 70% cheaper to provide MBB @ 800MHz than over 2100MHz

14. LTE Telco Opex
Key Assumptions
Dense Urban
Not to scale
Urban
Rural
• This is a theoretical exercise and represented as an ideal case
• Utilization of BTS has been assumed to be 100%
• For EVDO Rev A, # carriers on a BTS =2; EVDO Rev B = 3; costs have been
allocated proportionately
• LTE throughput has been taken as 30 Mbps

15. LTE Penetration
Developing
countries
Developed
countries
LTE expected to reach subscriber traction only by 2015 in developed countries, emerging
economies to be in nascence
“LTE will be deployed in developed
markets first, with wide-scale
deployments in emerging
markets expected after costs for
equipment & handsets begin to
decrease. Although potential for
LTE in emerging markets in the
next 5 years is limited.”
Pyramid Research, July 2011
Countries with LTE roll out begun and commercial service available in some regions
Countries with LTE spectrum auctioned but LTE deployments not yet commercial
Countries with planned LTE commercial deployments but spectrum not yet auctioned
Countries with LTE trial systems (pre-commitment)

16. LTE & 3G: The US Case

17. What to expect from LTE?
LTE TO HAVE 2.4X & 44X DATA USAGE PER USER COMPARED TO
WCDMA AND GSM RESP.
OPERATORS EXPECT LTE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT SHARE
OF DATA TRAFFIC
“SK Telecom predicts that around 65% of its
total data traffic will be handled by its LTE
network by 2014, and it expects to have 10
million LTE users by 2015.”
Unwired Insight, Nov 2011
“The average smartphone user on their
(Teliasonera) network consumed 375MB/month
of data. The average broadband user on their
network, largely 3G data cards, consumed 5
GB/month. But the average LTE consumer
(essentially all data cards) used 14 GB –
15GB/month of data.”
Gigaom, Nov 2010
*GSM, WCDMA, HSPA & LTE together expected to comprise ~90% share of all technology subscriptions by 2015; **1 EB=10^18 bytes
Note: GSM share of data traffic is low because a GSM subscriber would mainly utilize a basic phone for access and thus would
not exceed 60 MB data traffic per subscriber per month, even in 2015
Source: Ovum, Jan 2011; Gartner, Jun 2011; Bain analysis; Lit. search

18. LTE in India: Limited Scope in near future
City
Sub density
Attractiveness
Mumbai
4505
Profitable
Delhi
5689
Profitable
Bangalore
2760
Profitable
Chennai
1825
Profitable
Hyderabad
2190
Profitable
Kolkata
1678
Profitable
Pune
1968
Profitable
Ahmadabad
1103
Profitable
Surat
1292
Unprofitable
Coimbatore
1962
Profitable
11-50
1111
17 out of 40 cities profitable
51 -150*
366
7 out of 74 cities profitable
Economics suggest that a rational roll out would be limited to select cities over next 3-5 years
Profitability is function of subscriber density and data usage characteristics

19. LTE in India: Building Scale
•
•
•
•
•
Staggered launch schedule across 33 cities
will limit LTE share of data traffic in the
next 2 years to within 5-10%
LTE on 2300MHz will require high density
of BTS to offer sufficient coverage
– LTE on 2300MHz has limited
coverage with lower wall
penetration
Customers unlikely to perceive high value
in LTE vs 3G
Other LTE spectrum holders like Aircel,
Infotel not likely to launch immediately
BSNL may look to give away its spectrum
slot
Economics of 2300Mhz could strain LTE business case in short-medium term

20. LTE in India: The Operational Challenge
• Economics of 2300Mhz could strain LTE business case in shortmedium term
• LTE on 2300MHz will require high density of BTS to offer sufficient
coverage
– LTE on 2300MHz has limited coverage with lower wall
penetration
• 2300MHz LTS solution – unlikely to benefit from a scale ecosystem
as this will be among few 2300 MHz
• LTE coverage likely to be pocketed, with fallback on 3G
– User Experience is limited because of nomadic coverage through mix of
LTE/3G

21. LTE Deployments: India
•
•
•
LTE deployments will in India will
target heavy users and early adopters
Pricing per MB basis for heavy users
at parity to 3G or even lower
To offset nomadic coverage, 4G
solution will partly be an indoor fixed
Wi-Fi type solution (via CPE
equipment/ IBS)
•
•
Focus target segments:
– Enterprises
– SMEs (SME dense clusters)
– High-end/professional residential
areas
Will try to uptrade, switch heavy
users and early adopters  cream
the 3G/EVDO data market

22. Thanks!
manas.ganguly@gmail.com
@manasganguly
(+91)9654465443

23. References
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Data business: The India perspective - http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/data-business-the-indiancontext
India data traffic: The broadband story
http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/india-data-traffic-the-broadband-story
LTE: The Operational & the deployment challenges
http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/lteoperational-challenges-deployment-conundrum
Data in Indian context: Networks & Traffic
http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/data-in-indian-context-networks-traffic
Digital Dividend
http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/digital-dividend-2451233
GSMA: The Mobile Economy India 2013
http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/gsma-mobile-economy-india-report-2013
Spectrum, Technology & Standards http://niviuk.free.fr/index.html
iGDP expected to hit $100 billion by 2015 http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/2013/12/31/indian-telecom-2013-theyear-that-was-and-the-way-forward/
No. of Mobile Internet Users http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/2013/12/29/driven-by-a-narrowing-price-gapsmartphones-begin-to-penetrate-deep-into-indian-markets/
Smartphone versus Mobile Phone shipments http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/2013/12/29/driven-by-a-narrowingprice-gap-smartphones-begin-to-penetrate-deep-into-indian-markets/
LTE device Ecosystem http://www.gsacom.com/news/gsa_398.php

24. Glossary of Terms
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
GPRS: General Packet Radio Service
EDGE: Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution
1xRTT: Single Radio Transmission technology
eGPRS: Enhanced GPRS
GSM: Global systems for mobile communication
CDMA: Code division multiple access
UMTS: Universal mobile telecommunication systems
WCDMA: WideBand CDMA
SCDMA: Synchronous CDMA
TD-SCDMA: Time division synchronous CDMA
HSPA: High speed packet access
HSDPA: High speed downlink packet access
HSUPA: High speed uplink packet access
HSPA+: Enhanced HSPA
WiMAX: Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access
TD LTE: Time Division LTE
FD LTE: Frequency Division LTE
Cognitive Radio: The cognitive engine is capable of configuring radio-system parameters. These parameters include "waveform,
protocol, operating frequency, and networking"

25. Glossary of Terms
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
3GPP: 3rd Generation Partnership Project
OFDM: Orthogonal frequency Division Multiplexing
WCDMA: Wideband CDMA
802.11: Multi stream modulation techniques
AWS: Advanced Wireless Services
UTRAN: Universal Terrestrial Radio Access Network
S-Band: used by weather radar, surface ship radar, and some communications satellites, especially those used by NASA to
communicate with the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station.
Specialized Mobile Radio (SMR): Analog or digital trunked two-way radio system, operated by a service in the VHF, 220, UHF,
700, 800 or 900 MHz bands
L-Band: refers to four long different bands of the electromagnetic spectrum: 40 to 60 GHz (NATO), 1 to 2 GHz (IEEE), 1565
nm to 1625 nm (optical), and around 3.5 micrometres (infrared astronomy).
APT: Segmentation of the 698–806 MHz band (usually referred to as the 700 MHz band) formalized by the Asia Pacific
Telephony
de: Band or technology with origins in Germany
WCS: Wireless Communication Services usually in the 2300MHz Band
PCS: Personal Communication Services usually in the 1900MHz Band first launched in US, Mexico,Canada
DCS: Digital Cellular Service in US
TACS/ETACS: Total Access Communication System (TACS) and ETACS are mostly-obsolete variants of Advanced Mobile Phone
System(AMPS) which were initially developed by two companies separately, i.e. Vodafone and Cellnet.
PAMR: Public Access Mobile Radio mostly used in the former TV broadcasting spectrums