Farifax Financial 2008-2009 Presentation

Annual Meeting
g
April 15, 2009

1
Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless
otherwise noted, in US$ and, except per share data, in $ millions

Forward Looking
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made
pursuant to the “safe harbor” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform
Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks,
forward looking
uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements
of Fairfax to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements
expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited
to: a reduction in net income if our loss reserves are insufficient; underwriting losses on the risks
our subsidiaries insure that are higher or lower than expected; the occurrence of catastrophic
events with a frequency or severity exceeding our estimates; the cycles of the insurance market market,
which can substantially influence our and our competitors’ premium rates and capacity to write
new business; changes in economic conditions, including interest rates and the securities markets,
which could negatively affect our investment portfolio; insufficient reserves for asbestos,
environmental and other latent claims; the inability of our subsidiaries to maintain favourable
financial or claims-paying ability ratings; an inability to realize our investment objectives; exposure
to credit risk in the e ent o r s bsidiaries’ reins rers or ins reds fail to make pa ments a
event our subsidiaries’ reinsurers insureds payments;
decrease in the level of demand for our subsidiaries’ products, or increased competition; an
inability to obtain reinsurance coverage at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect
our subsidiaries; an inability to obtain required levels of capital; an inability to access cash of our
subsidiaries; risks associated with requests for information from government authorities; risks
associated with current government investigations of, and class action litigation related to,
g g g
insurance industry practice; the passage of new legislation; and the failure to realize future income
tax assets. Additional risks and uncertainties are described on pages 150 – 153 in our 2008
Annual Report which is available at www.fairfax.ca. For a fuller detailing of issues and risks
relating to the company, please see Risk Factors in Fairfax’s most recent Supplemental and Base
Shelf Prospectus filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada and the United States,
which is available on SEDAR and EDGAR. Fairfax disclaims any intention or obligation to update
or revise any forward-looking statements.

2

Guiding Principles
Objectives
We expect to compound our book value per share over the
long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its
subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers,
employees and shareholders – at the expense of short term
profits if necessary
Our f
O focus is long term growth in book value per share and
il t th i b k l h d
not quarterly earnings. We plan to grow through internal
means as well as through friendly acquisitions
We always want to be soundly financed
We provide complete disclosure annually to our
shareholders
h h ld

3

Guiding Principles
Structure
Our companies are decentralized and run by the presidents
except for performance evaluation, succession planning,
acquisitions and financing, which are done by or with
Fairfax. Cooperation among companies is encouraged to
the benefit of Fairfax in total
Complete and open communication b t
C lt d i ti between F i f and it
Fairfax d its
subsidiaries is an essential requirement at Fairfax
Share ownership and large incentives are encouraged
p g g
across the Group
Fairfax head office will always be a very small holding
company and not an operating company
dt ti

4

Guiding Principles
Values
Honesty and integrity are essential in all of our relationships
and will never be compromised
We are results-oriented — not political
p
We are team players — no quot;egos”. A confrontational style is
not appropriate. We value loyalty — to Fairfax and our
colleagues
We are hard working but not at the expense of our families
We always look at opportunities but emphasize downside
protection and l k f ways t minimize l
t ti d look for to i i i loss of capital
f it l
We are entrepreneurial. We encourage calculated risk-taking.
It is all right to fail but we should learn from our mistakes
We will never bet the company on any project or acquisition
We believe in having fun — at work! 5

Financial Results

2006 2007 2008
$ 150 16
150.16 $ 230 01
230.01 $ 278 28
278.28
Book Value per Share

53% 21%
Growth in Book Value per Share

$ 1,076 $ 1,141
Investments per Share

$ 58.38 $ 79.53
Earnings per Share (diluted)

6

23%
%
11%
10%
8%
7%
6%
5%
Share
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2
2%

SOURCE: Dowling & Partners, IBNR #12
(1%)
(3%)
(3%)
(3%)
(4%)
(5%)
(5%)
(6%)
(7%)
(7%)
(8%)
(8%)
(9%)
(9%)
(1
12%)
(133%)
(144%)
(144%)
(144%)
(15% %)
(16% %)
(17% %)
2008 Change in Book Value per

(18% %)
(18%)
(19%)
(19%)
(19%)
(22%)
(24%)
(31%)
(32%)
(3
37%)
Fairfax and AIG calculated using the same methodology as Dowling & Partners, based on company data (AIG excludes government financing)

(3
37%)
(43%)
)
(48%)
(65%)
(100%)
7

U.S. P&C Insurance Companies
5 Year
5-Year BVPS and Share Price
5-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate
2003-2008
BVPS Share Price
Fairfax (1) 11.2% 11.5%
1
2 Chubb 11.0% 8.4%
3 Travelers
T l 9.9%
9 9% 2.7%
2 7%
4 Markel Corp. 9.6% 3.4%
5 PartnerRe 8.7% 4.2%
6 Loews 8.2% 11.4%
7 ACE Ltd. 8.0% 5.0%
8 Berkshire Hathaway 6.9% 2.8%
9 RenaissanceRe 5.5% 1.0%
10 White Mountains 3.9% (10.3%)
11 Leucadia National 2.2% 5.2%
12 IPC Re 0.4% (5.1%)
13 Hartford (5.6%) (22.6%)
14 XL Capital
p (19.8%)
( ) (
(45.6%) )
15 AIG (49.5%) (52.7%)

(1)
BVPS in U.S. dollars. Share price in Canadian dollars
8

Fairfax Long Term Performance
Compound Annual Growth Rate to 2008

Book Value Per Share
5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 23 Years
Ranking
g 1 4 1 1
Growth Rate 11.2% 9.5% 17.0% 25.4%

Share Price
5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 23 Years
Ranking 1 12 2 1
Growth Rate 11.5%
11 5% (3.2%)
(3 2%) 13.1%
13 1% 23.1%
23 1%

Number of
Companies 15 15 12 8

For Fairfax: BVPS in U.S. dollars. Share price in Canadian dollars
9

2008 Subsidiary Financial Results

Combined Net Return on
Ratio Earnings Avg. Equity
Northbridge
N thb id 107.3%
107 3% 46 3.6%
3 6%

Crum & Forster (US GAAP) 114.6% 333 27.1%

OdysseyRe (US GAAP) 101.2% 549 20.5%

10

2008 Underwriting Results

Crum &
Northbridge Forster OdysseyRe Consolidated
As Reported
Underwriting Loss (78.7) (177.2) (73.5) (457.7)
Combined Ratio 107.3%
107 3% 117.6%
117 6% 103.5%
103 5% 110.1%
110 1%

Adjustments
-
Foreign Currency Impact 52.8 45.8 99.1
Crum & Forster Reinsurance
Commutation and Lawsuit Settlement - 109.7 - 109.7
Hurricanes Ike and Gustav Losses 25.0 74.3 136.9 242.5
-
Advent Underwriting Loss - - 112.4
112 4

Adjusted Underwriting Profit (Loss) (0.9) 6.8 109.2 106.0
Adjusted Combined Ratio 100.1% 99.3% 94.7% 97.6%

11

Importance of Float –
Operating Companies
Unlike money management business (royalty on funds
managed), results (g
g ), (gains) accrue to owners
)
Manage money with a long term perspective
Underwriting profit (loss) = benefit (cost) of float
Float belongs to policy holders but income accrues to
shareholders (with 100% or better combined ratios)
Benefit / Avg. Long Term
Underwriting Average (Cost) Canada Treasury
Profit / (Loss) Float of Float Bond Yield
21.6 11.6%
1986 2.5 9.6%

1,089 (3.4%)
1996 (37) 7.6%

8,618
, 3.3%
2007 281 4.3%
8,918 (5.1%)
2008 (458) 4.1%
Weighted Avg. Financing Differential Since Inception 2.3%
12

Importance of Float –
Operating Companies
Unlike money management business (royalty on funds
managed),
managed) results (gains) accrue to owners
Manage money with a long term perspective
Underwriting profit (loss) = benefit (cost) of float
Float belongs to policy holders but income accrues to
shareholders (with 100% or better combined ratios)
Benefit / Avg. Long Term
g g
Underwriting Average (Cost) Canada Treasury Investment
Profit / (Loss) Float of Float Bond Yield Gains
1
1986 2.5 21.6 11.6% 9.6%

91
1996 (37) 1,089 (3.4%) 7.6%

976
2007 281 8,618 3.3% 4.3%
1,559
2008 (458) 8,918 (5.1%) 4.1%
$5.3B (cumulative)
Weighted Avg. Financing Differential Since Inception 2.3%

13

Investment Performance
Hamblin Watsa Investment Performance

5 Years to 10 Years to 15 Years to
Dec. 31 '08 Dec. 31 '08 Dec. 31 '08

Common Stocks with Equity Hedge 12.2% 19.1% 16.1%
Common Stocks 1.5% 13.3% 12.3%
S&P 500 (2.2%)
(2 2%) (1.4%)
(1 4%) 6.5%
6 5%

Bonds 9.6% 9.3% 9.4%
Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate Index 1.6% 4.4% 5.4%

Source: Hamblin Watsa Investment Counsel - Annualized Rate of Return (%).
Notes: Bonds do not include returns from credit default swaps.
15 year investment performance includes portfolios managed by Hamblin Watsa which were not owned by Fairfax.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 14

Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
and Mark-to-Market Losses in 2008
Mark to Market

Crum &
Forster
Northbridge OdysseyRe Consolidated
OTTI 274 197 359 996
MTM 103 87 141 504

Total 377 284 500 1,500

15

Subsidiary Growth in Book
Value Per Share

2001-2008
Compound Annual
Growth Rate
Northbridge 19.2%
Crum & Forster (US GAAP) 18.9%
OdysseyRe (US GAAP) 21.2%

Three excellent companies:
Underwriting culture
Conservative reserving
Total return investing
16

Fairfax - Yesterday and Today

1985 2008
Net Premiums Written 12.2 4,332
Net Earnings (0.6) 1,474
Investment Portfolio 23.9 18,395
Common Shareholders' Equity 7.6 4,866

Per Share Growth
183x
Book Value $ 1.52 $ 278.28
120x
Share Price (C$) $ 3.25 $ 390.00
238x
Investments $ 4.80 $ 1,140.85
102x
Net Premiums Written $ 2.44 $ 247.74

17

International Diversification
India – ICICI Lombard General Insurance
For the Years Ended March 31
2002-2008
2002 2008
In USD millions
2002 2008 Average

Gross Premiums Written 6 894
-
Combined Ratio 105.7%
105 7% 105.8%
105 8%
Net Income (2) 26

Investment Portfolio 23 626
Total Shareholders' Equity 21 264

Customers (millions) 0.0 3.5
Employees 116 5,570
Offices 11 340

Cumulative Investment: $88MM ($30MM after March 2008)
Ownership Interest: 26%
18

Singapore – First Capital Insurance

For the Years Ended December 31
In USD millions 2002-2008
2002 2008 Average
Combined Ratio 101.8% 65.9% 71.2%
Net Income (0) 27


Initial Investment: $32MM in 2001, no additional investment
19

Hong Kong – Falcon Insurance

2002 2008 Average
Combined Ratio 98.5% 158.9% 110.2%
Net Income 2 (14)


Cumulative Investment: $40MM
20

Jordan – Arab Orient Insurance

2002 2008 Average
Combined Ratio 79.7% 79.3% 85.6%
Net Income 1 3


Initial Investment: $11MM in 2008
21

Dubai – Alliance Insurance

2002 2008 Average
Combined Ratio 74.7% 68.4% 68.9%
Net Income 5 12


22

Poland – Polish Re

2002 2008 Average
Combined Ratio 96.0% 106.1% 100.0%
Net Income 1 (11)


23

Financial Strength

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Holdco Cash and
Marketable Securities $410 $567 $559 $767 $972 $1,564

Year End Year End Year End
2003 2005 2008
Subsidiary Debt 784 933 910
Holdco Obligations 1,587 1,610 1,058
Total Debt 2,371 2,543 1,968
Holdco Cash and Marketable Securities 410 559 1,555
,
Net Debt 1,961 1,984 413

Total Equity & Minority Interests 2,896 3,396 6,352

Net Debt / Net Total Capital 40.4% 36.9% 6.1%
Total Debt / Total Capital 45.0% 42.8% 23.7%
24

The Perfect Storm in the
U.S. Economy Subsiding

1) Risk repriced

2) Deleveraging taking place

3) U.S. economy and U.S. stock markets
have declined significantly
Pessimism rampant

25

U.S. Stock Valuations Back
To Normal
Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP
Monthly - 1924 to Present
180%

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%
Average = 60.6%
60%

40%

20%

0%

Source: Ned Davis Research Inc.
26

Can the Japanese Experience Be
Repeated in the U.S.?
Nikkei 225 Index vs. Japanese 10-Year Gov't Bond Yields
Monthly - 1986 to Present
40,000
9%

8%
35,000
7%
30,000
6%
ond Yield

Nikkei 22 Index
25,000
5%

25
10-Year Bo

4% 20,000
3%
15,000
2%
10,000
1%

5,000
0%
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Bond Yields Nikkei 225

27

Stock Market Crash of 1929
Dow Jones Industrial Average vs.
Long Term U.S. Treasury Yields
1925 to 1939
5% 400

350
eld

ge
dustrial Averag
Long Term U.S Treasury Yie

4% 300

250

3% 200
00
S.

Dow Jones Ind
150

2% 100

D
L

50

1% 0
1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939

Long Term U.S. Treasury Yield DJIA

Source: Bloomberg and Hoisington Investment Management
28

Long Term U.S. Treasury Rate
1872 2008
1872-2008

14%
Fall of Berlin Wall

12%
Onset of Iron and
Bamboo Curtains
10%

8%

6%

Average = 4.24%
4%

2%
Global
Global market Restricted market market
0%
1872 1889 1906 1923 1940 1957 1974 1991 2008
Source: Hoisington Investment Management
29

High Yield Spreads
1-10 Year High Yield Spreads

2,000

1,800
ries

1,600
,
Spre (bps) over U.S. Treasur

1,400

1,200
r

1,000

800

600
ead

400

200

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Merrill Lynch
30

Investment Grade Spreads
1-10 Year Investment Grade Spreads
800

700
ies

600
Spre (bps) over U.S. Treasuri

500

400
r

300
ead

200

100

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Merrill Lynch
31

Fairfax s
Fairfax’s CDS Portfolio
Results of Fairfax's CDS Portfolio Since Inception
Cumulative Cos Cumulative Gains on Sale and Cumulative
e

3,000 20.0
ales Proceeds ($ millions)

Notional Amount of CD Portfolio ($ billions)
18.0
2,500
16.0
a

$
14.0
2,000
12.0

DS
G
Market Valu Including Sa

1,500 10.0

8.0
1,000
6.0
ue
st,

A
4.0
500
2.0

0 0.0
00
C

31-Dec-04 31-Dec-05 31-Dec-06 31-Dec-07 31-Dec-08

Notional Amount of CDS Portfolio Market Value Realized Proceeds Cost

U.S. Real Housing Price Index
1890 2008
1890-2008

220

200

32% decrease
180

160

140 1989
1894 1979
124.2
123.9 122.1
120

Average = 101.2
100

80

60
1890 1899 1908 1917 1926 1935 1944 1953 1962 1971 1980 1989 1998 2007

Source: Hoisington Investment Management and Robert Shiller, Yale University
33

Fairfax Investment Portfolio
Positioned For Income & Capital Gains
2007 2008
Cash and Short Term 21% 32%

50% 16%
Government Bonds
1% 20%
Municipal Bonds
Corporate Bonds 4% 7%
Total Fixed Income 55% 43%
(1)
4.2% 6.9%
Yield

(2)
17% 22%
Common Stocks
Other Investments 7% 3%
Total 100% 100%

(3)
Total Investment Portfolio $19.1B $20.0B

(1) Pre-tax equivalent yield
(2) Approximately 85% hedged
(3) Includes holding company cash and marketable securities 34

Capital Erosion Has Preceded
Several Past Cycle Turns
'69 '73 '74 '00 '01 '02 '08P
0%

-10%
0%
U.S.
U S P&C
Surplus

GAAP

S&P 500
-20%

-30%

Cumulative real
premium growth 16% 31% 30%
in th
i three following
f ll i
years

-40%
35
Sources: Swiss Re, Thomson Financial, A.M. Best, Towers Perrin, Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting

Well Positioned for a Turn in the Cycle

3,000
Northbridge (C$)
Odyssey Re
Crum & Forster
2,500
ums Written

2,000

1,500
1 500
Gross Premiu

1,000
G

500
Hard Market
Soft Market
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

36

Fairfax’s Strengths
Demonstrated Over 23 Years
1. Operations – Disciplined operating management
focused on underwriting profitability and prudent
reserving
P&C Insurance Operations
• Canada – leading commercial insurance operation
• United States – large commercial operation across
the country
• Asia – Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and largest
private operation in India
• Middle East – Dubai and Jordan
• Eastern Europe – Poland
p

P&C Reinsurance Operations
• Worldwide – Top 5 broker reinsurer in the U.S., top
p ,p
20 in the world

37

Fairfax’s Strengths
Demonstrated Over 23 Years

2. Investments – Long term, value-oriented philosophy
Worldwide
• Stocks
• Bonds
• Distressed debt
• Wh
Wherever “value” prevails
“l” il
Many large successful investments like Zenith,
Russel Metals Hub etc
Metals, Hub, etc.

38

Ready for the Next Decade -
Building on Fairfax’s Strengths
Fairfax s
Our guiding principles have remained intact
Excellent long term performance
Demonstrated strengths
Strong operating subsidiaries focused on
underwriting profitability and prudent reserving
Conservative investment management providing
excellent long term returns
Well positioned for the future

39

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