1. National Polling Assessment
October 25 2012

2. Just over half of voters believe we’re on the wrong track…
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do
you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction/
Wrong Track:
53%
Wrong Track
CBS News poll, conducted October 17-20, 2012 n=1383 LVs, MoE = ± 3%
Mercury. 2

3. …and Obama’s approval rating is at or near 50%...
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president: Do you
approve or disapprove of the job he is doing? Obama Job Approval
49%
Approve
NBC/WSJ poll, conducted October 17-20, 2012 n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Mercury. 3

4. …while his favorability edge over Romney…
Is your overall opinion of Barack Obama very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly
unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
Obama Favorable
52%
Favorable
(net +6)
ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=1376 LVs, MoE = ± 3%
Mercury. 4

5. …has disappeared in the last month of the campaign.
Is your overall opinion of Mitt Romney very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly
unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
Romney Favorable
50%
Favorable
(net +3)
ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=1376 LVs, MoE = ± 3%
Mercury. 5

6. Mitt Romney has a narrow lead in national polling…
Recent Polls RCP Average
47.1 - 47.7
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Source: Gallup.com
Mercury. 6

7. …though markets still favor Obama. Why the disparity?
Intrade:
Obama Re-Election
59.7%
October 25
Mercury. 7

8. Because Romney faces tough odds if he cannot win Ohio.
Electoral College Outlook
270 Needed to Win | Swing States in Purple
Obama
196 EVs
+
New Mexico (5)
+
Michigan (16)
+
Pennsylvania (20)
-------------------------
-
237 EVs
Romney
159 EVs
+
Arizona (11)
+
Missouri (10)
+
Indiana (11)
+
North Carolina (15)
-------------------------
-
206 EVs
Mercury. 8

9. Key Ohio Numbers at a Glance
RCP Average - OH
Intrade
47.9 - 45.8
60.0%
Obama Victory
18 EVs
RCP Average
(Senate)
2008 Results
47.4 - 42.2
52% - 47%
Sherrod Brown (inc.) Josh Mandel
Mercury. 9

10. Romney has closed the favorability gap in Ohio…
Ohio Obama Favorable
50% Favorable
(net +4)
Romney Favorable
50% Favorable
(net +5)
Suffolk University poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012
n=600 LVs, MoE = ± 4%
Mercury. 10

11. …but not yet enough to overtake Obama.
Ohio
2012 Ballot
47% - 47%
Suffolk University poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012
n=600 LVs, MoE = ± 4%
Mercury. 11

12. Key Virginia Numbers at a Glance
RCP Average - VA
Intrade
48.0 - 48.0
54.1%
Romney Victory
13
EVs RCP Average
(Senate)
2008 Results
47.0 - 46.0
53% - 46%
Tim Kaine George Allen
Mercury. 12

13. Virginia is a similar story…
Virginia Obama Favorable
50% Favorable
(net +2)
Romney Favorable
50% Favorable
(net +3)
Mellman Group poll for Americans United for Change,
conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=800 LVs, MoE = ± 3.5%
Mercury. 13

14. …though Obama trails in only few polls.
Virginia
2012 Ballot
46% - 45%
Mellman Group poll for Americans United for Change,
conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=800 LVs, MoE = ± 3.5%
Mercury. 14

15. Key Florida Numbers at a Glance
RCP Average - FL
Intrade
47.0 - 48.7
70.2%
Romney Victory
28 EVs RCP Average
(Senate)
2008 Results
47.0 - 41.5
51% - 48%
Bill Nelson (inc.) Connie Mack IV
Mercury. 15

16. Romney is starting to run away with Florida…
Florida Obama Favorable
51% Favorable
(net +6)
Romney Favorable
55% Favorable
(net +15)
FOX News poll, conducted October 17-18, 2012
n=1130 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Mercury. 16

17. …allowing the campaign to focus resources elsewhere.
Florida
2012 Ballot
45% - 48%
FOX News poll, conducted October 17-18, 2012
n=1130 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Mercury. 17

18. Key Wisconsin Numbers at a Glance
RCP Average - WI
Intrade
49.5 - 46.8
71.0%
Obama Victory
10
EVs
RCP Average
(Senate)
2008 Results
46.8 - 46.0
56% - 42%
Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson
Mercury. 18

19. However, Wisconsin remains an uphill battle for Romney…
Wisconsin Obama Favorable
53% Favorable
(net +9)
Romney Favorable
47% Favorable
(net +0)
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted October 15-17, 2012
n=1013 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Mercury. 19

20. …as Obama continues to lead despite Paul Ryan on the ticket.
Wisconsin
2012 Ballot
51% - 45%
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted October 15-17, 2012
n=1013 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Mercury. 20

21. Key New Hampshire Numbers at a Glance
RCP Average - NH
Intrade
48.2 - 47.4
55.1%
Obama Victory
4
EVs
RCP Average
(Senate)
2008 Results
54% - 44% None
Mercury. 21

22. Key Nevada Numbers at a Glance
RCP Average - NV
Intrade
49.5 - 46.8
75.1%
Obama Victory
6 EVs
RCP Average
(Senate)
2008 Results
45.8 - 41.0
55% - 43%
Dean Heller (inc.) Shelley Berkley
Mercury. 22

23. Key Colorado Numbers at a Glance
RCP Average - CO
Intrade
47.6 - 47.8
53.4%
Romney Victory
9 EVs
RCP Average
(Senate)
2008 Results
54% - 45% None
Mercury. 23

24. Key Iowa Numbers at a Glance
RCP Average - IA
Intrade
48.8 - 46.8
63.0%
Obama Victory
6 EVs
RCP Average
(Senate)
2008 Results
54% - 44% None
Mercury. 24

25. Republicans can pick up one to three Senate seats…
State of the Senate
Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOP
Hawaii Connecticut Massachusetts Arizona Nebraska
(Open) (Open) (Brown) (Open) (Open)
Maine Florida Montana Indiana
(Open) (Nelson) (Tester) (Open)
Michigan Missouri Nevada
(Stabenow) (McCaskill) (Heller)
New Mexico Ohio North Dakota
(Open) (Brown) (Open)
Virginia
(Open)
Wisconsin
(Open)
Mercury. 25

26. … though control of the chamber requires running the table.
Latest Senate Polling
Massachusetts:
Wisconsin: Brown (R): 44%
Warren (D): 50%
Baldwin (D): 47% (WBUR/MassINC, 10/21-22,
Montana: Thomspon (R): 45% n=516 LV)
Tester (D): 48% (Mason-Dixon, 10/15-17,
n=625 LV)
Rehberg (R): 48%
(Rasmussen, 10/14, n=500 LV)
Connecticut:
Murphy (D): 49%
North Dakota: McMahon (R): 43%
(Quinnipiac, 10/9-22,
Heitkamp (D): 40% n=1412 LV)
Berg (R): 50%
(Forum/Essman, 10/12-15, n=500 LV)
Virginia:
Kaine (D): 49%
Nevada: Allen (R): 48%
Heller (R): 46% (Rasmussen, 10/18,
n=500LV)
Berkley (D): 40%
(SurveyUSA, 10/11-15, n=806 LV)
Missouri:
Florida:
McCaskill (D): 51%
Akin (R): 45% Nelson (D): 45%
(Rasmussen, 9/2, n=500 LV) Mack (R): 41%
(PPP, 10/17-18, n=800 LV)
Mercury. 26

27. National Polling Assessment
October 25 2012
Kieran Mahoney Kirill Goncharenko
CEO President
New York, NY | kmahoney@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | kgoncharenko@mercuryllc.com
Senator James Talent Hon. Fernando Ferrer Hon. Fabian Nunez
Co-Chairman Co-Chairman Partner
Washington, DC| jtalent@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | fferrer@mercuryllc.com Sacramento, CA| fnunez@mercuryllc.com
Hon. Max Sandlin Thomas Doherty Michael McKeon
Co-Chairman Partner Partner
Washington, DC | msandlin@mercuryllc.com Albany, NY | tdoherty@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | mmckeon@mercuryllc.com
Adam Mendelsohn Michael DuHaime Hon. Vin Weber
Partner Partner Partner
Sacramento, CA| amendelsohn@mercuryllc.com Westfield, NJ| mduhaime@mercuryllc.com Washington, DC | vin@cwdc.com
Mercury. 27