Dear Clients and friends of Mercury:
As you know, polling has always been core to the DNA of our company, an original capability dating back to 1999 which remains a critical part of our daily strategic work. Since the founding of the firm, there has been an explosion of polling data and polling firms, particularly during election years. To that end, we’ve decided to have our polling shop analyze the public polling data and provide you with a brief summary of what we’re seeing in the public data that is credible, well-researched, interesting and timely. For the balance of this election season, we will provide this update on a bi-weekly basis. Post-election, we will continue with presentations monthly unless events warrant more frequent updates.
2. Key Numbers at a Glance
Right Direction/ Unemployment Obama
Wrong Track Job Approval
38% 7.8% 50%
Right Direction September 2012 Approve
(Sept 28: 42%) (August 2012: 8.1%) (Sept 28: 50%)
Obama Romney 1st Debate
Favorability Favorability
50% 45% 67%
Favorable Favorable
Romney Won
(Sept 28: 53%) (Sept 28: 48%)
2012 Ballot Intrade: Generic Ballot
Obama Re-elect
45% - 49% 61.9% 46% - 45%
October 11th, 2012
(Sept 28: 48% - 43%) (Sept 28: 47% - 45%)
(Sept 28: 78.1%)
(Key Numbers at a Glance from September 28, 2012 report in parenthesis )
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3. Optimism about the economy and country is improving…
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do
you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction/
Wrong Track:
38%
Right Direction
ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=845 RVs, MoE = ± 4%
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4. …as unemployment dips below the 8% barrier…
Unemployment trend from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Unemployment:
7.8%
September 2012
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5. …and a solid majority believe the economy is recovering.
Do you think the U.S. economy is recovering or is not recovering? Economy Recovering?
(NBC/WSJ poll, conducted 9/26-30/12, n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%)
57%
Is Recovering
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6. Obama’s job approval continues to hover at 50%...
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president: Do you
approve or disapprove of the job he is doing? Obama Job Approval
50%
Approve
GWU/Politico Battleground poll, conducted October 1-4, 2012 n=1,000 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
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7. …though his personal favorability is higher than Romney’s…
Is your overall opinion of Barack Obama very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly
unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
Obama Favorable
50%
Favorable
(net +5)
Pew Research Center poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=1,112 LVs, MoE = ± 3.4%
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8. …though Romney has begun to close the gap.
Is your overall opinion of Mitt Romney very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly
unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
Romney Favorable
45%
Favorable
(net -2)
Pew Research Center poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=1,112 LVs, MoE = ± 3.4%
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9. In addition, Romney’s victory in the first debate…
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the
best job in the debate -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?(CNN poll, conducted 1st Debate
10/3/12, n=430 adult debate watchers, MoE = ± 4.5%)
Which candidate do you think did the best job – or won – tonight’s debate?
(CBS/GfK poll, conducted 10/3/12, n=523 uncommitted voters, MoE = ±4.0%)
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10. …has produced a small Romney lead a month out...
If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates
were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and Republicans Mitt Romney
and Paul Ryan?
2012 Ballot
45% - 49%
Pew Research Center poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=1,112 LVs, MoE = ± 3.4%
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11. … as the RCP average favors Romney for the 1st time since July...
Recent Polls RCP Average
46% - 47%
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
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14. …though the key indicators are still in Obama’s favor…
Recent Polls - VA Virginia
(15 EVs)
48% - 48%
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Obama Obama Romney
Job Approval Favorable Favorable
(RCP Average)
48% 51% 49% Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Approve Favorable Favorable
(net +1) (net +6) (net +5)
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted Oct. 7-9, 2012 n=981 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
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15. …but the door is open for Romney to build on his momentum.
Recent Polls - FL Florida
(28 EVs)
48% - 48%
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Obama Obama Romney
Job Approval Favorable Favorable
(RCP Average)
48% 52% 49% Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Approve Favorable Favorable
(net +2) (net +9) (net +5)
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted Oct. 7-9, 2012 n=988 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
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16. The recent turnaround is well-reflected by Intrade’s markets…
Intrade:
Obama Re-Election
61.9%
October 11
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17. …though downballot Democrats still enjoy a small edge…
If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the
Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? Congressional Ballot
46% - 45%
GWU/Politico Battleground poll, conducted October 1-4, 2012 n=1,000 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
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18. …as the Senate math gets harder for Republicans…
State of the Senate
Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOP
Hawaii Connecticut Massachusetts Arizona Nebraska
(Open) (Open) (Brown) (Open) (Open)
Maine Florida Montana Indiana
(Open) (Nelson) (Tester) (Open)
Michigan Missouri Nevada
(Stabenow) (McCaskill) (Heller)
New Mexico Ohio North Dakota
(Open) (Brown) (Open)
Virginia
(Open)
Wisconsin
(Open)
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20. National Polling Assessment
October 11 2012
Kieran Mahoney Kirill Goncharenko
CEO President
New York, NY | kmahoney@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | kgoncharenko@mercuryllc.com
Senator James Talent Hon. Fernando Ferrer Hon. Fabian Nunez
Co-Chairman Co-Chairman Partner
Washington, DC| jtalent@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | fferrer@mercuryllc.com Sacramento, CA| fnunez@mercuryllc.com
Hon. Max Sandlin Thomas Doherty Michael McKeon
Co-Chairman Partner Partner
Washington, DC | msandlin@mercuryllc.com Albany, NY | tdoherty@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | mmckeon@mercuryllc.com
Adam Mendelsohn Michael DuHaime Hon. Vin Weber
Partner Partner Partner
Sacramento, CA| amendelsohn@mercuryllc.com Westfield, NJ| mduhaime@mercuryllc.com Washington, DC | vin@cwdc.com
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