2. Technical Analysis (CFTe Version)
John J. Murphy
• “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”
• The study of market action through the use of chats for the
purpose of forecasting future price trends
Martin J. Pring
• “Technical Analysis Explained”
• The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage
and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows
or proves that the trend has reversed
John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards
• “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends”
• The science of recording in graphic form the actual history
of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the
probable future trend
3. The Use of Technical Analysis
Technical
Analysis
Trend
Analysis
Timing
Analysis
Price
Analysis
Investment
Strategy
Decision &
Action
9. Technical Analysis
John J. Murphy
• “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”
• The study of market action through the use of charts for the
purpose of forecasting future price trends
Martin J. Pring
• “Technical Analysis Explained”
• The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage
and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows
or proves that the trend has reversed
John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards
• “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends”
• The science of recording in graphic form the actual history
of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the
probable future trend
10. Objects
Actual History of Market Action
Recording in Graphic Form or Charts
Market Action are
Price
Volume
Open Interest (in Futures Market)
11. Objectives
Deducing From That The Probable Future Trend
Forecasting Future Price Trends or A Trend Reversal
17. Cycle and Seasonality
Cycle
• Kondratieff
• Presidential
• 40 Months
Coal
Newcastle
Seasonality
• Ramadhan
• January Effect
• Windows
Dressing
• Sell in May
and Go Away
18. January Effect in JCI
January Effect terjadi 15 kali sejak tahun 1991 (23
tahun) sehingga peluang terjadinya adalah 65.2%
19. Windows Dressing in JCI
Sejak tahun 1990, IHSG pada akhir bulan Desember selalu naik
dibanding akhir bulan November kecuali pada tahun 1992, 1994 dan
2000
20. MoM Inflation
Inflasi MoM cenderung turun dari 1Q hingga 2Q lalu kemudian naik lagi
hingga awal 3Q kemudian menjelang 4Q namun kembali naik di akhir
4Q
21. CPIN Near Ramadhan
CPIN naik minimal 24% hingga 93% dua bulan
menjelang Lebaran antara 2009 hingga 2012
26. Standard Definition in “Opposite”
Technical Rebound
A temporary and
relatively small rise
during Downtrend
Technical Correction
A temporary and
relatively small fall
during Uptrend
Technical
Rebound
Technical
Correction
32. Financial Statement – Trend Analysis
Trend
Uptrend
YoY Rise and QoQ Rise
Downtrend
YoY Fall and QoQ Fall
Strengthening Trend
Accelerating Uptrend
QoQ Rise > YoY Rise
Accelerating Downtrend
QoQ Fall > YoY Fall
Against Trend
Deccelerating Uptrend
QoQ Rise < YoY Rise
Deccelerating Downtrend
QoQ Fall < YoY Fall
Technical Correction
YoY Rise but QoQ Fall
Technical Rebound
YoY Fall but QoQ Rise
33. Chart Pattern Types
Reversal
Pattern
Bullish
Double / Triple
Bottoms
Inverted Head
and Shoulders
Bearish
Double / Triple
Tops
Head and
Shoulders
Continuation
Pattern
Bullish
Ascending
Triangle
Falling
Wedges
Bullish Flag
Cup and
Handle
Bearish
Descending
Triangle
Rising Wedges
Bearish Flag
Hybrid Pattern
Symmetrical
Triangle
Rectangle Rounding Top
Rounding
Bottom
34. Double / Triple Tops
The Pattern Previous Condition & Expected Movement
Previous Condition :
Uptrend
Expected Movement
Downtrend
Target Price
The Height between two
or three Tops to Baseline,
projected Downward
Example
35. Head and Shoulders
The Pattern Previous Condition & Expected Movement
Previous Condition :
Uptrend
Expected Movement
Downtrend
Target Price
Height between Head and
Neckline, projected
Downward
Example
39. Logic Indicators (So Far ...)
Moving Average
Bollinger Band
Rate of Change
40. The Basic of Moving Average
Averaging certain periods
Price above MA = Bullish
Price below MA = Bearish
Short MA above Long MA = Bullish
Short MA below Long MA = Bearish
41. Fundamental Moving Average
MA20 ~ 1 Month ~ MoM
MA60 ~ 3 Months ~
Quarterly or QoQ
MA200 ~ 1 Year ~
Yearly or YoY
MA20 is a Monthly
Average Price
MA60 is a Quarterly
Average Price
MA200 is a Yearly
Average Price
MA20 above MA60 =
Monthly Average Price is
above Quarterly Average
Price
MoM Rise > QoQ Rise
MoM Price > QoQ Price
MA60 above MA200 =
Quarterly Average Price
is above Yearly Average
Price
QoQ Rise > YoY Rise
QoQ Price > YoY Price
42. The Basic of Bollinger Band
Bollinger Band = MA20 and +/- 2x Standard
Deviation of MA20
Middle Band (MA20)
Upper Band (+2x Standard Deviation of MA20)
Lower Band (-2x Standard Deviation of MA20)
+/- 2x Standard Deviation = ~95% Datas are Within
The Band
44. The Basic of Rate of Change
Rate of Change (RoC) is a percentage of change for
certain period
RoC 14 = 20% means there is a 20% rise from 14
days ago to current price
RoC 20 = MoM Change
RoC 60 = QoQ Change
RoC 200 = YoY Change
47. Supply Demand Theory
When Demand > Supply = Price Rise
When Demand < Supply = Price Fall
48. Capital Market
Demand Supply
Buyers or Bull-ishers
Increase in Funds or
Investor
Monetary Expantion
Sellers or Bear-ishers
Initial Public Offering
Rights Issue
49. Basic Volume Analysis
Price Volume Indication Explanation
Rise Rise Bullish Volume Confirms Trend
Rise Fall Bearish Volume Against Trend
Fall Rise Bearish Volume Confirms Trend
Fall Fall Bullish Volume Against Trend
Compare today’s price and previous (mostly yesterday) prices to determine the Rise or
Fall of Price and Volume
59. Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe
Working Experiences
Currently as Junior Investment
Manager at Mandiri Healthcare
3 year as Technical Analyst at
Trimegah Securities, AmCapital
Indonesia and Anugerah
Securindo Indah
1 year as Equity Sales at
Danareksa Sekuritas
Certifications
Certified Financial
Technician (CFTe) from IFTA
Bronwen Wood Award 2011
from IFTA
Certified Securities Analyst
(CSA) from SASB Indonesia
mmdandytra@gmail.com
(+62) 813 145 45 317
Contact Information