Is Mobile WiMAX Really a Threat to European Cellular Markets?

1. Is Mobile WiMAX Really a Threat to European Cellular Markets? Luke Thomas, Programme Manager ICT - Europe October 30, 2008

3. Key Driver for Mobile Broadband

4. Key Driver: World of Convergence Users will require high bandwidth to access presence-enabled synchronized updated information anywhere on any device in real-time ! Killer devices of 2008 UMPCs & Smartphones Unified Communication across various devices/applications with synchronized updates Relaying real-time presence information across various devices and applications

5. Unpredictable User Behaviour Consumer habits changing from … SWITCH SURF SLEEP SEARCH PARTICIPATE PERSONALIZE To succeed in mobile broadband, mobile operators need to shift from being Service Providers to … Value-Added Experience Providers . Change in Demographics GenX (15 to 25 years old) Change in Demand (Online gaming, TV/Video on demand, Content Messaging and cross media, podcasting, social network communities, m-commerce, Sharing Presence information and status updates and so on…)

6. Mobile WiMAX Roadmap

7. Mobile WiMAX Roadmap Mobile WiMAX Rel 1.0 (802.16e) Mobile Broadband 60+ Mbps 2008 Mobile WiMAX Rel 1.5 (802.16e Rev2) Mobile Broadband 125+ Mbps 2009/2010 Mobile WiMAX Rel 2.0 (802.16m) Mobile Broadband 300+ Mbps 2010/2011 Source : Frost & Sullivan

8. Comparison of Mobile WiMAX Standards Source : Frost & Sullivan Due to be a ratified standard by 2010 and is designed to be backward compatible to 802.16e. But if the global market shifts to 3G LTE, it could support SC-FDMA in the uplink making it backward compatible to 3G LTE and as a result will not be backward compatible to 802.16e, as 802.16e uses OFDMA in the uplink. Backward compatible with Rel 1.0 and will support enhanced multicast, broadcast and LBS. Certified products available today based on Wave 2 Phase 1. Wave 2 Phase 2 certified products by Q2 2009 (June) and targeted to be commercially available by Q3/Q4 of 2009. Other Specifications More than 1200 users per sector for 2x20 MHz FDD, 2x2 MIMO. 400-500 active VoIP users in 20MHz TDD channel. 150-200 active VoIP users in 10MHz TDD channel. VoIP Support TDD and FDD support. Primarily support TDD. FDD will be supported for the 700MHz WiMAX profile by 2010. This could be phased out if operators do not get FDD spectrum in the 700MHz for Mobile WiMAX worldwide. TDD Support. TDD/FDD Support Upgrade MIMO capabilities to support 4X4 on the network side but achieving this on the client device will be a huge challenge. Support 4x2 Closed Loop MIMO. MIMO and Beamforming Support. MIMO Capabilities 300 Mbps in the downlink (20 MHz; 4x4 MIMO). 120Mbps+ in the downlink (20MHz; 2x2 MIMO). 60Mbps+ in the downlink (10MHz; 2x2 MIMO). Peak sector throughput Mobility enhanced at 350km/hr. Increased mobility at 120km/hr. Limited mobility. Mobility 802.16m Rel 2.0 802.16e Rel 1.5 802.16e Rel 1.0 Attribute

9. Client Device Roadmap for Mobile WiMAX 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PCMCIA cards Source : Frost & Sullivan Devices USB Dongle UMPC Notebook WiMAX smartphones Consumer Electronics Mobile WiMAX Femtocells Dual-mode Mobile WiMAX/Cellular smartphones Gaming Devices Note : This is an optimistic scenario and only WiMAX Forum certified products for 802.16e taken into consideration. The timeframe for the roadmap includes certified client devices commercially available by at least two vendors or more.

10. Update on WiMAX Forum Certification

13. Spectrum Auctions in Europe

14. Delays in European Spectrum Auctions ? ? License expired end 2007, Auction delayed to 2009 Auction delayed to 2009 Auctioned completed in Nov’07 Auction delayed to 2009 Auction completed in May 2008 Re-farming of users ongoing, Auction to be decided Consultation planned 2008, auctioning to be decided Auction delayed to Q4 2008 Consultation planned 2008, Military use, Auction data unsure Ministry of Defense  2015, Possibly released by 2009 or 2010 Prior users clearing before 2008, Auction to take place in Q4 2008 Source: Frost & Sullivan, Ericsson Spectrum auctions in the 2.5GHz in key markets in Western Europe will occur either in 2009 or 2010. Hence, the 2-3 year lead time that Mobile WiMAX proponents claim to have over 3G LTE would be irrelevant in such markets as 3G LTE will not only be a ratified standard in 2009 but the market will also witness operators conducting 3G LTE trials during this period. Licensing starts Spectrum cleared for commercial use Auction completed Auctions completed

16. Drivers, Restraints and Challenges for Mobile WiMAX

17. Initial client devices devoid of cellular technology and highly priced Not backward compatible with cellular technologies Mobile WiMAX included in IMT-2000 Drivers Restraints High deployment cost of wired services European Commission encouraging member countries to allow mobility in the 3.5 GHz Closing the digital divide and driving convergence of various client devices from different industries Delays in WiMAX Forum certification Spectrum auction delay and hoarding in the 2.6GHz by mobile operators such as T-Mobile and O2 in the UK No certified client device based on FDD for 802.16e Adopting an open access Internet model Key Market Drivers and Restraints for Mobile WiMAX Biggest restraint is the immense hype associated with Mobile WiMAX - which still continues !!! Source : Frost & Sullivan

18. Key Challenges for Mobile WiMAX Backhaul Issues Challenges Battery life of client devices Advantages of FDD over TDD IPR pertaining to Mobile WiMAX still ambiguous Sir, where do you want me to install these huge MIMO Antennas? Source : Frost & Sullivan Cost of 802.16e BTS almost similar to cellular technologies Supporting Mobile VoIP and data applications simultaneously without a dramatic reduction in the sector capacity

21. What’s happening with 3G LTE?

22. Worldwide Operator Commitment to 3G LTE Europe North America ASIA/APAC NTT DoCoMo China Mobile KDDI Telstra China Telecom/Unicom Verizon Wireless AT&T Vodafone T-Mobile Telecom Italia TeliaSonera Orange May be the first mobile operator to commercially launch 3G LTE worldwide Source : Frost & Sullivan Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance (NGMN) selected 3G LTE as its next generation technology of choice for mobile broadband

23. Global Market Timing for 3G LTE Canada 2011/2012 USA 2009/2010 Latin America 2016 Onwards Africa 2018 Onwards Western Europe 2010/2011 Eastern Europe 2015 Onwards Developed Asia 2011/2012 Australia 2010/2011 Japan/Korea 2009/2010 China 2010/2011 Source : Frost & Sullivan

24. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 3G LTE/SAE ratified as a standard 3G LTE Trials and Pilots 3G LTE Roadmap in Western Europe Sampling of multimode 3G LTE chipsets First 3G LTE enabled data cards and USB Dongles First 3G LTE Mobile Devices Commercial Rollout of 3G LTE by Tier 1 Mobile Operators Availability of €250 3G LTE smartphones 3G LTE embedded into laptops Source : Frost & Sullivan

25. Conclusion

29. For Additional Information Joanna Lewandowska Corporate Communications Europe +48 22 390 4146 [email_address] Luke Thomas Programme Manager ICT Europe +91 44 42044681 [email_address] Sharifah Amirah Principal Analyst, Telecoms ICT Europe +44 207 343 8313 [email_address]