01a lm foreword-ws2016

Luca Marescotti 2 / 52
Keywords

Conoscenza e tecnologie appropriate per la sostenibilità e la resilienza in urbanistica -
Knowledge and Appropriate Technologies for Sustainability and Resilience in Planning
THE WORLD IS CHANGING!
REALLY? I DO NOT BELIEVE IT!
YES, IT IS, BUT HOW?
WHAT CAN WE DO?

THREE PRESSURES
RESOURCES LIMITS
UNBALANCED RESOURCES AND AFFLUENCE
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES

RESOURCES LIMITS
Carrying capacity and T factors (T for tecnologies)
… but Tf
? Tf
future is unpredictable!
(*) Pierre François Verhulst
(**) Saint Paul Island, Alaska [fonte: Eric Roger Pianka].
T?
Here we have not
any T factors (**)(*)

RESOURCES LIMITS
Malthus: exponential growth vs linear growth,
Verhulst: Population vs Carrying Capacity,
but technologies can change the agricultural productivity? The green
revolution, promoted since the late 40s will save us! Sure? How much?

RESOURCES LIMITS
“The fundamental point of The Population Bomb is
still self-evidently correct, we believe: the capacity of
Earth to produce food and support people is finite.”
[fonte: Paul R. Erlich, Anne H. Erlich 2009]

UNBALANCE IN RESOURCES AND
AFFLUENCE
global poverty lines 1,00$÷1,25$ / person x day (World Bank 1985)
Wellbeing 205,00$ /person x day (Nobel Angus Deaton)

HUMAN IMPACTS AND PLANETARY
BOUNDARIES 1
IPAT equation: I = P × A × T
(Human) Impacts on the environment are a function of (Population, x
Affluence x Technology) [Barry Commoner, Paul Erlich, John Holdren].
DISCUSSION
(a) exponential population growth [P is a function of time t= time? T0
, ... tn
, ],
(b) affluence is unbalanced,
(c) T can be positive or negative,
(d) T future is unknown.

Almeria, greenhouses for the Green Revolution!
[fonte: Yann Arthus-Bertrand]

il contesto dell'urbanistica
il sistema socio-ecologico e le tecnologie
[fonte: Will Steffen,”The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship”, 2011]
Fig. 2 I = PAT identity at the global scale from 1900 to the present. Note the difference in volume between the 1990–1950 period
and the 1950–2011 period, which represents the Great Acceleration (Kolbert 2011)

Fig. 1 a The increasing rates of change in
human activity since the beginning of the
Industrial Revolution to 2000. Significant
increases in rates of change occur around the
1950s in each case and illustrate how the past
50 years have been a period of dramatic and
unprecedented change in human history
(Steffen et al. 2004, and references therein). In
the following part figures, the parameters are
disaggregated into OECD (wealthy) countries
(blue) and non-OECD (developing) countries
(red); b Population change from 1960 through
2009, in 1000 millions of people (World Bank
2010); c Increase in real GDP from 1969
through 2010, in trillions 2005 USD (USDA
2010); d Communication: increase in
telephones (millions), both land-lines and
mobile phones, from 1950 through 2009
(Canning 1998; Canning and Farahani 2007;
ITU 2010)
[fonte: Will Steffen,2011]

CHE COSA PROPONGONO LE TECNOLOGIE
ALL’ORGANIZZAZIONE DEL TERRITORIO?
Quanto è sostenibile una città?
Quante tecnologie incorpora?
Quanta energia incorpora?
Quanto sfruttamento umano?
Le tecnologie permettono qualsiasi cosa, anche costruire nel deserto!
The technologies allow anything, also build in the desert!
How sustainable is a city?
How many technology incorporates?
How much energy embeds?
How much human exploitation?

PRODOTTI DI
SCARTO E RIFIUTI
Nel processo di
produzione e nel
consumismo della
società ricca
Questa è la regola del
PIL nel capitalismo
-------------------------------
SCRAP AND WASTE
In the production
process and in the
consumerism of an
affluent society.
This is the rule of GDP
in capitalism

HUMAN IMPACTS AND PLANETARY
BOUNDARIES 2
THE THEME IS:
THE HUMAN LIVING CONDITIONS IN THE BIOSPHERE AND
GLOBAL CHANGE

1
2
• overfishing, coastal
eutrophication
• phosphorous accum-
ulation in soil and mud
• fire prevention
3
state shift
• disease,
hurricane
• flooding, warming,
overexploitation
of predators
• good rains, continu-
ous heavy grazing
coral dominance
clear water
grassland
4
algal dominance
turbid water
shrub-bushland
Valuable Ecosystem Services Loss of ecosystem services
(Desirable) (Undesirable)

il sistema socio-ecologico
RICH
RICH/POOR
ppm for all greenhouse gases

IL RUOLO DELL'URBANISTICA E IL RUOLO DELLA
CULTURA POLITECNICA NELLA COMPRENSIONE E NELLA
GESTIONE DEI FATTORI DI MODIFICAZIONE DEI SISTEMI
SOCIO-ECOLOGICI
THE ROLE OF PLANNING AND THE ROLE OF A
POLYTECHNIC CULTURE IN UNDERSTANDING AND
MANAGING SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS CHANGING
FACTORS

WHAT?
50/9/ & 100/+2°

2015 was the warmest year ever recorded on Earth,
and it was not even close.
On January 20, 2016, scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their analyses of surface
temperatures for the past year. The NASA team found that globally averaged
temperatures from January through December 2015 were 0.87 degrees Celsius
(1.57° Fahrenheit) above the norm (defined as a 1951–1980 base period). The
previous record—set last year—was 0.74°C (1.34°F) above the norm. For the
planet, 2015 was more than a full degree Celsius (1.8°F) warmer than
temperatures in 1880, when consistent record-keeping began.

The graph below shows temperature trends in relation to El Niño and La Niña
events. Orange bars represent global temperature anomalies in El Niño years,
with the orange line showing the trend. Purple bars depict La Niña years, and the
purple line shows that trend. Neutral years are shown in gray, and the dashed
black line shows the overall temperature trend since 1950.
[http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87359&src=eoa-iotd]

1816 l'anno senza estate
In seguito all'eruzione del vulcano Tambora, nell'isola di Sumbawa (Indonesia)
2014- 2016 gli anni senza inverno?
causati dagli impatti umani e con particolare riferimento alla grande accelerazione
tecnologica
1816 the year without a summer
probably caused byTambora eruption on Sumbawa island (Indonesia)
2014- 2016 years without winters?
caused by humans, with particular reference by their great technological
acceleration

The Global Land Cover Share Database

Land use and Impacts: The Global Land Cover Share
Database
The basic concept adopted to develop the global land cover share
database is effective: integrate the best land cover data available (at sub-
national, national, and regional and global level) into one single
harmonized database using international standards. This task requires an
effort of harmonization among different layers and legends to create a
consistent product.
TREE COVERED areas 27,7% represent around one quarter of the total
global land surface. The other most represented cover classes are
CROPLAND 12,6% and BARE SOIL 15,2%. Considering differences
in accuracy and dates, of the values show comparable ranges.
[GLC – SHARE beta 2014 ]

ARTIFICIAL SURFACES 0,6%: The class is composed of any type of
areas with a predominant artificial surface. Any urban or related feature
is included in this class, for example urban parks (parks, parkland, sport
facilities). The class also includes industrial areas,waste dump deposit
and extraction sites. [GLC – SHARE beta 2014 ]
Ma le città (0,6% delle terre emerse) consumano il 70% delle risorse
ittiche forestali e minerarie
Nelle città quel 70% non è diviso equamente e comunque all'altra metà
della popolazione che coltiva, scava e taglia resta il 30%

Deforestation Hot Spots

La ricchezza delle nazioni risiede nelle loro risorse, ma la loro sovranità
è funzione del potere economico e militare.
L'AMBIENTE NON HA CONFINI E LA SOVRANITÀ DELLE NAZIONI SI
RIVELA INADATTA A TUTELARE L'AMBIENTE.
The wealth of nations lies in their resources, but their sovereignty is a function
of economic and military power.
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS NO BOUNDARIES AND THE SOVEREIGNTY OF
NATIONS PROVES UNSUITABLE TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT.

Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including
hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems.
Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes including adaptation and
mitigation are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability.
[ICCP 2014 Working Group II of Assessment Report 5]
50/9: Un sistema socio-ecologico dinamico

Impostazione del workshop
ambiente-territorio-paesaggio
Biosfera: visioni di un sistema complesso
Visioni qualitative e visioni quantitative: il controllo
attraverso la misura, la prevenzione e la precauzione.
Definire una grandezze e delle unità di misura - Indicatori e
soglie di attenzione
Definizioni per settori operativi (per esempio:
equilibri/squilibri sociali, gestione dei rifiuti, controllo degli
scarichi nelle acque, delle emissioni nell'aria e controllo dei
rischi associati...).
Ruolo delle tecnologie
Nei processi e nella produzione di territorio e dell'ambiente.

Contesto del workshop
un modello di sviluppo alternativo
• Modello convenzionale
– Ruolo politico del mercato; Sprechi ed emissioni nei processi produttivi
(inefficienza del metabolismo).
• Modello economico “verde”
– Ruolo della politica nel controllo del mercato, Produzioni a basso
consumo energetico (efficienza del metabolismo), Energia da fonti
rinnovabili, Materie prime secondarie.
• Old economy
– Political role of the market (strong shadow hand); Waste and emissions
in production processes (metabolic inefficiency).
• Green job
– Role of Politics in control of the market, low-energy production
(metabolic efficiency), energy from renewable sources, secondary raw
materials.

Le tecnologie sono mezzi e modi di produzione
del territorio urbanizzato,
… cioè ... del passaggio dall'Olocene all'Antropocene
Technologies are means and modes of production of
the urbanized territory,
... that is to say … for the transition from Holocene to
Anthropocene

TECNOLOGIE TECHNOLOGIES
MEZZI E MODI DI PRODUZIONE: tecnologie di processo, strumenti,
macchine, leggi e strumenti di pianificazione, regole di attuazione e di controllo,
capitale infrastrutturale, capitale naturale, forza lavoro…
PRODOTTI: tecnologie di prodotto, quindi infrastrutture a rete e puntuali, opere
di controllo della mobilità, opere di mitigazione e compensazione degli impatti;
cioè: città, terreni coltivati e condizioni generali ...
PRODUCTION MODES & MEANS: process technologies, tools, equipment,
laws and planning tools, implementing & control rules , infrastructural capital,
natural capital, labour power, ...
PRODUCTS: Product technologies, network infrastructures and punctual, works
of mobility control, mitigation works and impacts compensation;
ie: city, farmland, and general condition, ... ..

ERA Environmental Risk Assessment as a part of SEA
(*)
Risk analysis & Precautional principle (**)
(*) David Hyett (Australia)Environmental risk assessment in environmental impact assessment: optional or
mandatory?
(**) when making multi-dimensional public decisions high priority on acting to avoid and/or mitigate potential
harmful consequences. [fonte: Alan Randall, Risk and Precaution, Cambridge University Press, 2011.]
Disaster Risk Index (DRI)
PER UNA TEORIA URBANISTICA IN AMBITO
ECOLOGICO: oltre VAS & VIA

Today,
85% of the people exposed to earthquakes, tropical
cyclones, floods and droughts live in countries having
either medium or low human development.
…
Some 75% of the world’s population live in areas
affected at least once by earthquake, tropical cyclone,
flood or drought between 1980 and 2000.
Disaster Risk Index (DRI)
ECOLOGICO

Urbanisation does not necessarily have to lead to
increasing disaster risk and can actually, if managed
properly, help reduce it.
[fonte: Mark Pelling, Andrew Maskrey, Pablo Ruiz and Lisa Hall (eds.), A
Global Report - Reducing Disaster Risk. A Challenge For Development, United
Nations Development Programme - Bureau for Crisis Prevention and
Recovery, New York, 2004.]
ECOLOGICO

Just to begin: a small, dynamic, instable, unpredictable Planet
DI CHE COSA PARLIAMO, QUANDO PARLIAMO DI
URBANISTICA?
WHAT WE TALK ABOUT, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT
PLANNING?

Conoscenza e tecnologie appropriate per la sostenibilità e la resilienza in urbanistica - Knowledge and
Appropriate Technologies for Sustainability and Resilience in Planning
Il riduzionismo vede l'edificazione come unico compito dell'urbanistica:
se fatta bene, tutto è a posto. Ma l'urbanistica riguarda tutto il territorio
e il suo uso. La disciplina si apre a altre discipline, concorre con loro,
pari tra i pari, per orientare il futuro. Il collasso è un destino stupido.
È necessario riscrivere una visione scientifica dell'urbanistica?
Che cosa significa pianificare l'uso del suolo senza comprendere gli
impatti globali?
Trasformare il pianeta comporta consapevolezza e responsabilità
dell'urbanistica.

Conoscenza e tecnologie appropriate per la sostenibilità e la resilienza in urbanistica - Knowledge and
Appropriate Technologies for Sustainability and Resilience in Planning
Reductionism sees building as the unique task for planning: if done
right, everything is in place. But planning covers the whole territory
and all its uses. The discipline must be open to other disciplines; it
competes with them, equal among equals, to guide the future.
Collapse is a too stupid fate.
Do we need to re-write a scientific view of urbanism?
What does it mean to plan land uses without understanding global
impacts?
Transforming the planet involves awareness and responsibility of
planners and of politicians.

Prospettive
●
Sustainable city
●
Land Use Planning
●
Physical Planning
●
Biodiversity
●
European Green Capital
●
EIA-SEA [VAS-VIA]
●
Disaster Risk (DR Index by UN)
●
Risk Management and Reduction Disaster Risk
●
Precautionary Principle
●
Human Development (HD Index by UN)

Una domanda: Come mettere a confronto le
differenze? come misurarne le implicazioni
ambientali? Come valutare in più occasione con gli
stessi criteri le trasformazioni di uso del suolo?
(esistono procedure standard per VIA & VAS?)
Just a question: can different trasformations or different public works
be assessed following definite protocols? (there are standard procedures for
EIA & SEA?)
Di che cosa stiamo parlando?

Discussion 1 ‐ Keywords
Please discuss by using these key words that are given at the
beginning of the lecture!
Discutiamo la lezione usando le parole chiave fornite all'inizio!

Does planning interact with global change?
L'URBANISTICA RIGUARDA I CAMBIAMENTI GLOBALI?
Is planning a science?
L'URBANISTICA È UNA SCIENZA?
Is planning just an administrative technique of governing?
L'URBANISTICA È SOLO UNA TECNICA DELLA PUBBLICA
AMMINISTRAZIONE?
Discussion 2 ‐ what is “urbanistica”?

Discussion 3 ‐ human impacts feedbacks
Please discuss the situations given below by giving planning
examples!

examples!

01a lm foreword-ws2016

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