1. Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
Identifying and quantifying trade-offs across temporal and spatial scales
between productivity, food security, profitability and ecological services
Wageningen, February 2013
Key tradeoff questions and tools in CRP6
Forests, Trees and Agroforestry:
livelihoods, landscapes and governance
Meine van Noordwijk and Fergus Sinclair

2. Forests, Trees and Agroforestry: livelihoods, landscapes and governance
Key tradeoff questions in CRP6
Tools:
1.CGIAR SLO1+2+3 vs 4
??
2.Forest vs People
3.Sparing, sharing, caring
4.Buffers vs intensification
5.Tree cover transitions vs ES functions
6.Tree water use vs climate influence
7.Terrestrial C stock vs Income
8.Motivations to reduce emissions
9.Small vs large scale investors
10.Subsistence & markets by gender roles

4. Forest and tree cover transitions: a unifying concept
1 Choice
of Y-axis
6
Core
2 3 4 5
Temporal Spatial Institutional X-linkage of
pattern, pattern, challenge at actions in
turning point landscape

5. Exogenous
Atmospheric concentrations of variabiliy
Atmos-
phere
short- and longlived
greenhouse gasses
GHG emissions
Climate
Anthropogenic
systems
Impacts of actual
Mitigation & predicted
sys n clim ial
ate
s o otent
climate change on
s
Human actions .
tem
human and
eff er p ecosystems
Oth
ect
Adaptation
Human quality of life Vulnerability

6. The logarithm of human population density is a
good predictor of the fraction of land area
reported as forest (across different forest
types)
We can identify
countries that
have more than
10% extra, or
more than 10%
forest deficit
relative to what is
expected for their
population
density

7. “Forest transition” as
spatial pattern.
‘chronosequence’?
Spatial analysis: classification of 450 districts in Indonesia according to 7
tree cover transition stages (Dewi et al., in prep.)
7

8. ASB matric as boundary object
ttr te 1
ttr te 2
n
to ttrib 1
ttr t e 2
n
to ttrib 1
ttr te 2
n
e
te
e
te
e
ut
ut
ut
r/A ibu
di r/A u
di r/A u
di r/A u
r/A u
r/A u
In ato ttrib
ib
In to ttrib
In ato ttrib
ib
ib
di r/A
di r/A
di r/A
to
In ato
In to
In to
ca
ca
ca
ca
ca
ca
c
c
c
di
di
di
In
In
In
Ecosystem Socio-eco- Governance
services nomic devt systems
• Land use system 1 + ++ - - + 0 ++ + 0
• ,, 2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
• ,, 3
• … Methods allow for life-cycle
assessment of land use systems
• ,, n
Step 1: qualitative
Step 2: quantitative

9. Tradeoff at land use system level Opportunity cost at landcape scale
opportunity cost, $/t CO2e,
Slope indicates Emission reduction poten-
emissions per
Carbon stock, tC/Ha
tial for given C price
gain in $/ha I II
e.g. ADSB
e.g. ASB-II reports
 Cumulative emissions
reports of 2007/8
1990’s
NPV, $/Ha
Four levels of analyzing opportunity costs Dynamic land use scenario model
Agents with C stock
variation in (increasing)
resource
base, moti- III
vation, live-
lihood stra- IV Rural income  Rural income
tegies. (declining) (increasing)
interacting
with rules C stock e.g. FALLOW
& policies
Agent-based land use change model (decreasing) scenarios

10. Forests, Trees and Agroforestry: livelihoods, landscapes and governance
Key tradeoff questions in CRP6
Tools:
1.CGIAR SLO1+2+3 vs 4
Global data sets
2.Forest vs People Spatial analysis
3.Sparing, sharing, caring Sentinel landscapes
4.Buffers vs intensification
Multiple-knowledge
appraisals
5.Tree cover transitions vs ES functions Tree-Soil-Crop models
6.Tree water use vs climate influence System tradeoff plots
7.Terrestrial C stock vs Income Policy Analysis Matrix
Agent-based models
8.Motivations to reduce emissions
Role-Play Games
9.Small vs large scale investors Participatory LU plans
10.Subsistence & markets by gender roles Learning landscapes