Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition Greg Sterling revisit the top 10 trends for local and mobile for next year and beyond: big data, mobile migration, social discovery, personal assistants, indoor location and more.

1. LSS ‘Big Trends’ 2013 Edition
Greg Sterling
19 November, 2013

2. A Q u ic k L o o k a t L a s t Ye a
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Continued momentum of mobile and “decline” of the PC
Growth of tablets (and emergence of smaller tablets)
Rise of multi-screen consumer
Mobile shopping and ‘showrooming’
Mobile payments – not quite there yet
Bursting of the deals “bubble”
Decline of Facebook?
Fragmentation of search, growth of apps and “assistants”
Slow merchant response (brands, SMBs) to consumer changes
SMB confusion amid market complexity
Novel uses for location data (proxy for audiences)
Indoor location, “turn by turn” directions

3. To p 1 0 T h is Ye a r
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Rise of mobile-only and mainly mobile users
Mobile colonizing local
Vertical marketplaces and “e-commercification of local
services” (incl. mobile payments)
Market bifurcation: “winner take all” yet perennial
insurgents
Search-free local search: virtual assistants and data-driven
local recommendations
Real-world analytics
Indoor location
SMB confusion/market complexity
Wearables
Last but not least . . . privacy

4. S till th e D o m in a n t S to ry
Mobile and its impact on
the local and social
sectors continues to be
the big story of 2013
(and 2014)

5. C a tc h in g U p to W o rld P o p u
7.1 billion people in the
world*, 6.6 billion
“mobile subscriptions”
today**
37% of global population
in China and India
*US Census Bureau estimate (2013)
** Ericsson Mobility Report, (November, 2013)

6. N e a rly 6 B S m a rtp h o n e s b y
** Ericsson Mobility Report, (November, 2013)

7. S m a rtp h o n e s : 7 0 % b y 2 0
53% to 66%
penetration
across ‘EU5’
Nearly 140 million
people
62%+ smartphone
penetration
Nearly 150 million
people
Figures higher for those under 35
Source: Nielsen (Q3 2013) comScore (Q1 2013), Pew Research Center, Opus Research (2013)

8. A g g re s s iv e P ric in g = P e n e t
Moto G: a premium
smartphone for
£135, $179, €132
Amazon will release an
inexpensive/subsidized
smartphone

9. Mobile Only/Mobile First

10. ‘G e n e ra tio n M ’
• 50% of teen smartphone owners
(12-17) use the internet mostly on
their mobiles
• 45% of young adults (18-29)
reported in 2012 that they mostly
go online with mobile
• 46% of survey respondents said they relied exclusively on
smartphones or tablets in conducting online research
across a range of local purchase categories
Source: 2012, 2013 Pew Research Center reports on “Teens and Technology”; Nielsen-xAd-Telmetrics (2013)

11. M u ltis c re e n U s a g e P a tte
“Smartphones are the backbone of [ ] daily media use. They are the
devices used most throughout the day and serve as the most
common starting point for activities across multiple screens.”
Source: Google-IPSOS Q2 2013, n=1,600 US adults

12. M o re M o b ile T im e S p e n
US internet time spent via mobile devices in May
exceeded internet time spent on the PC (477
billion minutes vs. 481 billion)
Source: comScore (May 2013)

13. Mobile Eats Local

14. M o b ile Tra ffic : 2 0 %
100
Global Internet Traffic
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: StatCounter (November 2013)
Desktop
Mobile

15. L o c a l n o t E a tin g M o b ile
• Assumption (esp. ad forecasts) that
local to dominate/define mobile
• So far it’s the other way around

16. M o b ile C o lo n iz in g L o c a
• 59% of searches on Yelp are from mobile
• 40% to 50% of search/lookups on various
YP sites are from mobile (globally)
• Nearly 50% of Groupon transactions in Q2
(North America) came from mobile
• Google Maps has more mobile than PC users
(as of Q4 2012)
Source: public filings, company data

17. Rise of ‘Local Commerce’ or
‘E-commercification of Local’

18. V e rtic a l o r N ic h e M a rk e t
• Car sharing/ride apps
• Made possible by mobile
• Generally two-sided
marketplaces
• Offer car sharing or
inventory mgmt for drivers
• Convenience and/or
efficiency for consumers
The power of limits: often mobile is preferred experience because it’s
simpler, more streamlined

19. Online Booking, Offline Fulfillment
• Older:
- Tickets/events
- Restaurant reservations
- Travel
• Newer:
- Groupon
- Others: Seamless, Yelp, Uber, Hailo, MyTime,
Square/PayPal, OpenTable/Top Table

20. Bifurcation: Winner Take All & Perennial
Insurgents

21. B ig B ra n d s v s . N ic h e P la y

22. In s u rg e n ts A tta c k
Source: Andrew Parker, 2010

23. F a c e b o o k v s . C o m p e tito r

24. Search Free Local Search

25. D a ta : P u s h + P e rs o n a liz a t
Using social + offline data to offer
recommendations or personalization
Real world provides context
and more data
Virtual assistants: learning and pushing
information based on behavior and
context

26. Real-World Analytics

27. O2O Sales: 10X EC
E-commerce
Retail + services
(2012):
(2012):
US$186
US$7.3 Trillion
billion
Online-toOffline (2012):
US$1.83 Trillion
Source: comScore, US Commerce Department, Opus Research estimates

28. C lic k s a B a d M e tric
For display ads:
• CTR became de-facto currency for
performance-based ads (because
trackable)
• Don’t reflect real value of digital ads
• comScore (2012): Clicks had lowest
correlation (0.01) with conversion vs other
metrics
• Nielsen (2011): CTR “showed no
connection” to actual offline sales lift

29. M o b ile ’s M is s in g R O I
Marketers not seeing mobile “conversions” …
because they happen offline
PC:
3.3%
Tablet:
2.2%
Source: various SEM platform and industry reports from Q2, Q3 (US data)
Smartphone:
0.7%

30. ‘Estimated Total Conversions’
Through signed-in Chrome users, Google will determine cross-device and
offline conversions
Source: Google (Q3 2013)

31. S e e k in g t o ‘C lo s e L o o p ’
• Proxy metrics: calls/map look-ups
• Coupons (challenges at the
register)
• Check-ins, scanning QR codes instore/at POS
• Mobile wallets/in-store payments
• Data partnerships: Facebook,
Twitter & Datalogix (offline loyalty
cards)

32. Indoor Location

33. R a n g e o f In d o o r L o c a tio n
Cameras
Buyers
Seeking
WiFi
Accuracy
Source: Opus Research (2013)
Bluetooth
4.0
Ubiquity
RFID
Magnetic
Cost
LED
Lighting
Speed to
implement
Sound/Aco
ustic
Privacy

34. P h a s e s o f M a rk e t D e v e lo p
• Venue mapping (extension of outdoor)
• Retailer/B2B analytics (sales, operations, staffing)
• Offline ROI/ad impact tracking
• Enhanced in-store consumer experience
• In-store digital advertising/indoor marketing

35. Wearables

36. S m a rt/ C o n n e c te d D e v ic e

37. H e re b u t N o t M a in s tre a m
• No experience: More than 80% of US smartphone
owners had no direct experience with Google Glass,
smartwatches or fitness wristbands
• But demand/interest exits:
- Glass: roughly half under 43 interested or willing to
consider Google Glass if more conventional designs
became available
- Smartwatches: More than 40% under 53 w/o one said they
were interested: 1) Samsung, 2) Apple, 3) Google
(corresponding to phone ownership)
- Report: Only 50K Galaxy Gear watches sold
Source: August 2013 survey of more than 1,100 US adult smartphone owners, BusinessKorea

38. Privacy

39. P riv a c y : lé
O

40. Bonus Round
• Smarter use of location (incl. geo-conquesting) by
mobile advertisers
• Increasing merger of online and offline data sets
(can the humans make sense of it all?)
• Return of mapping competition:
- HERE (one of the surviving parts of Nokia)
- Facebook?
- Waze (part of Google)
- Apple Maps stablizing
- Google Maps slipping

41. M e A g a in
Follow or Contact Me
Greg Sterling greg.sterling@gmail.
com
Twitter.com/gsterling