Market indicators for February 2014.

1. I s su e
15 ,
Vo lu me
7
/
Fe br u ar y
14,
201 4
Positive Housing Data Continues in National Survey
The Week Ahead -> The “Keys”
Tim McLaughlin
- A plethora of Mortgage and Housing Data this week
The number of Americans who believe it would be easy for
them to get a mortgage increased by 2% to reach 52% in
January, according to Fannie Mae's Monthly National Housing
Survey.
Date
Economic Release
2/18
Empire Manufacturing
It was the first time in the survey's 3 ½ year history that the
number of people who think it would be easy to get a mortgage
crossed the 50% threshold, Fannie Mae reports.
2/18
Long Term Net TIC Flows
2/18
Total Net TIC Flows
Meanwhile, the number of Americans who think it would be
difficult to get a mortgage dropped 3% to 45%.
2/18
NAHB Housing Market Index
2/19
MBA Mortgage Applications
2/19
Consumer attitudes toward the economy also improved,
despite the mixed job reports for December and January. The
share of consumers who believe the economy is on the right
track climbed 8%. Additionally, the share of respondents who
expect their personal financial situation to improve in the next
year increased to 44%, continuing an upward trend since
November.
In addition, the share of people who say home prices will stay
the same in the next 12 months increased 7% to 45%, while the
share who says home prices will go up in the next 12 months fell
by 6% to 43%.
American consumers are also feeling more positive about
interest rates: The number of consumers who say mortgage rates
will go up in the next 12 months decreased by 2% to 55%.
Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at
Fannie Mae, says the "gradual upward trend" in the number of
people who think it is easier to get a mortgage during the last few
months "bodes well for the housing recovery and may be
contributing to this month’s increase in consumers’ intention to
buy rather than rent their next home."
Prediction
Last
9.00
12.51
$30.0B
-$29.3B
-
-$16.6B
56
56
-
-2.0%
Housing Starts
950K
999K
2/19
Housing Starts (MoM)
-4.9%
-9.8%
2/19
Building Permits
977K
991K
2/19
Building Permits (MoM)
-1.5%
-2.6%
2/19
PPI (MoM)
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.4%
1.1%
2/19
2/19
2/19
Another statistic -> the number of consumers who say it is a
good time to buy a house stands at 65%. And those who say it is
a good time to sell a house increased 5% from last month to
38%.
PPI (YoY)
ex Food/Energy
2/19
Mortgage Delinquencies
-
6.41%
2/19
MBA Mortgage Foreclosures
-
3.08%
2/19
Jan 29 FOMC Mtg Minutes
-
-
2/20
CPI (MoM)
0.1%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.6%
1.5%
2/20
"The dip in overall home price expectations, though notable, is
consistent with our view of moderating home price gains this year
from a robust pace last year, while positive trends in perceptions
about the economy and personal finances over the next year
support our view of stronger growth in the broader economy,” he
adds.
ex Food/Energy
2/20
ex Food/Energy
CPI (YoY)
2/20
ex Food/Energy
1.6%
1.7%
2/20
Initial Jobless Claims
334K
339K
2/20
Continuing Claims
2980K
2953K
2/20
Philly Fed Survey
8.5
9.4
2/21
Existing Home Sales
4.70M
4.87M
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