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INVESTOR BEHAVIOR Source:
Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials, © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
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Seeing Is Not
Believing Which gray circle is bigger? Which gray bar is longer? Are the gray horizontal lines parallel? This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
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Rational Minds Can
Act Irrationally They are the same size. They are the same size. The horizontal lines are parallel. This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
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Overconfidence: False Perception
Historical Performance of Emerging-Markets Stocks 2003 – 2008 80% Return 60 20 0 - 2 0 - 6 0 40 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 56.3% 26.0% 34.5% 32.6% 39.8% - 4 0 -53.2% Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
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Hindsight Bias: Technology
and Real Estate Bubbles An Examination of Technology Stocks and Home Values $367 $201 $2,000 1,000 100 1992 1991 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 100 200 $300 1995 1999 2003 2007 Technology Bubble Real Estate Bubble* Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • *Data available through November 2008. This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
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Short-Term Focus: Avoiding
Potential Near-Term Losses Choice of Asset Allocation After Examining Different Return Distributions When shown a distribution of one-year returns , investors allocated 40% to stocks. When shown a distribution of 30-year returns , investors allocated 90% to stocks. • Stocks 40% • Bonds 60% 40% 60% 10% 90% Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • Source: Shlomo Benartzi and Richard H. Thaler, “Risk Aversion or Myopia? Choices in Repeated Gambles and Retirement Investments,” June 1998. This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. • Stocks 90% • Bonds 10%
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Short-Term Focus: Coping
with Near-Term Fluctuations Probability of Losing Money in the Market 1989 – 2008 0 Daily 40 30 20 10 Monthly Quarterly Annually Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. 50% Probability 46% 37% 30% 25%
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Regret: Action Versus
Inaction Analyzing Various Types of Regret 10 9 $50k $44,410 Jan 07 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul Sep Investor A purchased shares of Company ABC. Investor A sold shares of Company ABC. Investor B considered purchasing shares of Company ABC, but did not. Nov Jan 09 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
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Mental Accounting: Sum
of the Parts Risk and Return Characteristics 1970 – 2008 Total Portfolio Return: 9.9% Risk: 11.6% Large Stocks Return: 9.5% Risk: 18.2% Small Stocks Return: 11.7% Risk: 23.8% Bonds Return: 9.3% Risk: 11.4% Cash Return: 5.8% Risk: 2.9% International Stocks Return: 9.7% Risk: 23.2% Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
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Hot-Hand Fallacy: Asset-Class
Winners and Losers Annual Performance of Various Asset Classes 1994 – 2008 2007 11.6 IS 9.9 LTGB 4.7 TB 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 8.1% IS 21.5 LTGB 17.8 LTGB 20.7 IS 14.0 IS 26.9 IS 3.9 TB 20.3 IS 27.3 IS 5.9 TB 3.8 TB 1.6 TB 39.2 IS 7.8 LTGB 31.7 LTGB 6.4 IS 15.9 LTGB 13.1 LTGB 3.7 LTGB 1 1.6 IS 5.2 TB 5.3 TB 4.9 TB 4.7 TB - 15.7 IS 1.4 LTGB 8.5 LTGB 4.8 TB - 7.8 LTGB 5.6 TB - 0.9 LTGB 2.1 IS - 9.0 LTGB - 14.0 IS - 21.2 IS 1.0 TB 1.2 TB 3.0 TB 1.2 LTGB Highest Return Lowest Return 2008 25.9 LTGB 1.6 TB -43.1 IS Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. -5.2 SS 29.8 SS 22.8 SS 60.7 SS 34.5 SS 17.6 SS 22.8 SS 18.4 SS 16.2 SS 3.1 SS - 3.6 SS - 13.3 SS 5.7 SS - 7.3 SS -36.7 SS 5.5 LS 37.6 LS 23.0 LS 33.4 LS 28.6 LS 21.0 LS 28.7 LS 10.9 LS 15.8 LS 1.3 LS - 9.1 LS - 11.9 LS 4.9 LS - 22.1 LS -37.0 LS Large Stocks (LS) Small Stocks (SS) International Stocks (IS) Long-Term Government Bonds (LTGB) Treasury Bills (TB)
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Hot-Hand Fallacy: Chasing
Fund Performance Wealth Versus Cash Flows 1999 – 2008 • Growth of $10,000 • Cash Flows 10-year Fund Total Return = -0.50% 10-year Average Investor Return = -12.55% 0 5 10 15 20 25 $30k -400 0 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 $1,600m -200 200 2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • An investment cannot be made directly in an index. • This art is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 3/1/2009 • Source: Created by Raymond James using Ibbotson Presentation Materials ©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
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