1. MBA ADVANCE 2010-2011 Business English Oral Project: Simone Nastasi

2. TABLE OF CONTENTS DEFINITION OF ARAB SPRING ANALYSIS OF SELECTED COUNTRIES - Policy - Economic CONCLUSION (WHAT COMES NEXT ?)

3. WHAT’S THE ARAB SPRING? A revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests that have been taking place in the Arab world since 18 December of 2010.

4. COUNTRIES INVOLVED Mauritania, West Sahara, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia,Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen.

5. COUNTRIES ANALYZED Tunisia (Revolution) Egypt (Revolution) Libya (Ongoing war)

6. TUNISIAWhat’s happened? Uprisings started on december 2010. CAUSES: High unemployment, food price inflation, corruption, lack of freedom of speech, poor living conditions. EFFECTS: Ouster of president Ben Ali Election to a costitutional assembly

7. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF REVOLUTION(TUNISIA) Tourists arrivals down of 40% in April Higher food prices Declining of consumer confidence Industrial production down 11% GDP growth expected of 1% in 2011 less than 3,5% over the last year

8. GDP per Capita TUNISIA

9. EGYPT What’s happened? Uprisings started on 25 January 2011 CAUSES : High unemployment,food inflaction, corruption,electoral fraud,low minimun wages,State emergency law POLITICAL EFFECTS: Overthrow of Mubarak’s regime

10. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF REVOLUTION (EGYPT) Tourists arrival down of 80% in April Industrial production down of 24% Inflation rate at 12% Food price up by over 20% GDP growth expected of 1% less 5% than over the last year

11. GDP EGYPT

13. CAUSES:

14. High unemployment (30%), censorship and tight controlof information

16. UnitedNation Security CouncilResolution 1973

17. Embargo on trade and armssalesbyEuropeanCouncil

19. WHY A WAR IN LYBIA? To exclude Chinese interests in North Africa (geopolitical standpoint) To control oil production (trade standpoint) To eliminate Muammar Ghadafi (historical standpoint) To implement the democracy (political standpoint)

20. CHINESE INDUSTRIAL ZONES

21. ECONOMIC FREEDOM IN LIBYA

22. ECONOMIC IMPACT IN OIL PRICE (table 1)(Crude Oil – Monthly price ) *source indexmundi.com

23. WORLD IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCK

24. OIL RESERVE IN AFRICA

25. Wheredoes go the libyan oil?

26. ECONOMIC IMPACTS AROUND THE WORLD Paralysis of Libyan Sovereign Funds’ investment in EU and USA countries Hikes of oil price (table 1) Hikes of global food prices (table 2) Loss of investment in Italy

27. ECONOMIC IMPACT IN WHEAT PRICE (table 2)(Wheat – monthly price)*source indexmundi.com

28. ECONOMIC IMPACT IN MAINZ PRICE (table 3)*source indexmundi.com

29. OIL IMPORTATIONS FROM LIBYA

30. WHAT ABOUT ITALY ?

31. WHAT THE WAR’S IMPACTS ON ITALY? Termination of Treaty of Friendship signed in 2008 Termination of trade relations Decrease in oil supply Withdrawal of shares by Lybian Sovereign Fund in Italian companies

32. ITALY DEPENDS FROM LYBIA OIL

33. LYBIAN SHARES IN ITALIAN COMPANIES

34. WHAT COMES NEXT ? Political uncertainity Geopolitical instability (Anarchy) Islamization Shortage in the oil’ supply Hikes of oil’s price Who will rule the country?

35. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION