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1. Accessibility of
Proposed Bay Area
Rail Transit Extensions:
An Evaluation of Opportunities
for Transit-Oriented Development
Kevin Fang
California Polytechnic State University
Presentation to the
Jack R. Widmeyer Transportation Research Conference
California State University – San Bernardino
November 6, 2009
3. Study Background
Series of proposed actions in
MTC 2035 Transportation Plan
Study focuses on extensions to
the intra-region commuter and
heavy rail network
BART to Silicon Valley
eBART
Caltrain to Downtown SF
Dumbarton Rail
4. Study Purpose
Determine how accessible these extensions/stations
along extensions are
Accessibility serves as surrogate for opportunities for
transit-oriented development
See how extensions enhance the overall accessibility
of the entire regionwide network
5. Why Study Accessibility and TOD?
Shift the paradigm from Automobility Planning to
Accessibility Planning (Cervero, 2000)
Issues with the current auto-oriented
transportation and land use
Environmental Economic
Preferential Social
Subsidization of public transportation
Take advantage of investments when they are made
6. Methodology
Calculate an accessibility index
Compare relative accessibility of stations
Explore accessibility changes with network expansion
Index based off generalized gravity model
Size of Attraction
Accessibility =
Distance
Jobs surrogate as Size of Attraction
Time based friction factor for Distance component
7. Alternative Network C
A
B
Configurations
Accessibility compared
from present to future
through analysis of 3
Alternative Network
Configurations
A – Current Network:
Trunk and Branch
B – Future Network #1:
Loop and Branches
C – Future Network #2:
Loop, Cross-Link, and
Branches
Source: ESRI Shaded Relief Basemap, MTC
9. Increases by Sub-Regional Area Type
Central City Central City Inner Ring Outer Ring
CBD Non-CBD Suburb Suburbs
A B
Share of Growth
37.5% 32.7% 25.9% 4.0%
B C
0.9% 2.0% 96.4% 0.7%
A C
36.1% 31.6% 28.4% 3.8%
Accessibility growth favors central cities/inner suburbs
10. Accessibility Average Accessibility Index by Network Configuration
of New Lines
A B C
New stations
on average 7.64 7.44 7.24
less accessible
Average Accessibility Index and Ranks (out of 93) – Alt. C
than existing
stations eBART BART-Silicon Valley
Index .52 Index 6.66
BART to Silicon Rank 84.9 Rank 39.3
Valley on Caltrain-Downtown. SF Dumbarton Rail
average rank Index 2.62 Index .80
in upper half Rank 64 Rank 79.7
of stations
11. Share of Accessibility Generation
Share of Growth
Share of Accessibility Generation
Attributable To Line
Full
Existing A Build
C A C
BART 90.56% 77.06% 4.20%
eBART -- 0.49% 3.16%
BART-Silicon Valley -- 9.35% 59.82%
Caltrain 9.44% 10.99% 19.36%
Caltrain-Downtown SF -- 1.94% 12.41%
Dumbarton Rail -- 0.16% 1.04%
Caltrain-Downtown SF station is not particularly
accessible to other stations, but shows value as a
large activity center accessible to nearby stations
12. Surrounding
Land Use
Surrounding land use
can either support or
be obstacle to TOD
Right: Agglomerated
map of General Plan
Land Use
Designations
Surrounding Areas That Are Low
Generalized Land Uses in
Density Residential (1/2 Mile)
the San Francisco Bay Area
Source: ESRI Shaded Relief Basemap, MTC, ABAG
13. Implications: Site
TOD Opportunities
One possible
interpretation:
(Index A + Index B +
Index C) * (1 - % Low
Density Residential)
Source: ESRI Shaded Relief Basemap, MTC
14. Implications: Prioritization of Extensions
1. BART-Silicon Valley Will receive 50 percent of
new systemwide accessibility
Jobs along line make it almost as
important as entire Caltrain system in
generating accessibility at other stations
2. Caltrain-Downtown SF 1 station will generate 2 percent
of systemwide accessibility
3a. Dumbarton Rail Lacks major job centers along/near line
Connectivity provides limited travel time
benefits to major job centers
3b. eBART Lacks major job centers along/near line
15. Conclusions
Accessibility is just one, but a very important, factor
for TOD.
Sites with highest potential are within close proximity
to major activity centers
Connectivity promotes accessibility if provide time
savings to major activity centers
Society can change outcome of outlying, less
assessable stations with plans to transform stations
with low showing into major activity centers, e.g.
Pleasanton, Walnut Creek, etc