Dr Harry Woodroof: Introduction to Horizon Scanning

Horizon Scanning
Harry Woodroof, PhD FRSA
Dstl Horizon Scanning Team
hjwoodroof@dstl.gov.uk

Library & Information Science Research Coalition
Developing Research Excellence and Methods
(DREaM) workshop

Edinburgh 25 April 2012
© Crown Copyright 2012. Published with the permission of the Defence
Science and Technology Laboratory on behalf of the Controller of HMSO. Dstl
publication reference: DSTL/ PUB63411.

Horizon Scanning: the rationale

• The future is uncertain.
• All decisions are made (in the present) about the future.
• Therefore, decision-makers need to get and use
information (in the present) about the future.

Horizon Scanning can help!

Dstl is part of the
© Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Defence Science and Technology
Laboratory (Dstl)
• Agency of Ministry of Defence
• >3,900 staff
– civil servants
– >70% scientists, engineers, analysts
• “Maximising the impact of Science & Technology (S&T)
on UK Defence and Security
• ….. and understand S&T risks and opportunities through
horizon scanning”
• S&T Horizon Scanning team of eight (most part-time)
• Also Social, Economic, Environmental, Political futures
Dstl is part of the

Prime Minister and Cabinet

Professor Sir John Beddington, CMG, FRS
Government Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of GO-Science

Government Office for Science
(GO-Science)

The Foresight Programme (as in 2009)

Horizon Scanning Centre Foresight projects
smaller projects, entire policy spectrum (large (18 months), science-focussed)

Social
Technical
Economic strategy
Environmental
Political

Dstl is part of the

Horizon scanning – a definition

“The systematic examination of potential threats,
opportunities and likely developments including but not
restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and
planning.
Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected
issues as well as persistent problems or trends.”

Chief Scientific Advisers
Committee (CSAC) 09/04

Dstl is part of the

The „knowledge mix‟ in a research organisation

what we know what we don’t know

Answered questions Unanswered questions
We know

Libraries Research Programme

Maintenance is key Access is key

Unrecognised answers Unasked questions
We don’t know

Experience To ask what if?
we don’t recognise, Requires external
Internal connectivity stimulus or intervention
is key Exposure to risk

Dstl is part of the

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Dstl is part of the
22 April 2012 Ministry of Defence
© Crown Copyright Dstl 2012

The “evidence-based policy” paradox

• Policy is about solutions for the future

• But conventional “evidence” is about the past

Dstl is part of the
8 Ministry of Defence

Four (of many) approaches to
preparing for the future
• Expert views
Common. (Deeply(?)) unsatisfactory
• Extrapolations

Horizon Scanning
• Scan www e.g. Dstl approach (S&T only)
More complex
Costlier
(Hopefully(!)) more
• “Scan of Scans” + people e.g. HSC Sigma Scan helpful

Dstl is part of the

The problem with expert predictions

• "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" –
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
• "640K ought to be enough for anybody" – Bill Gates, Microsoft
• “This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously
considered as a means of communication” – Western Union
memo
• "It will be years – not in my time – before a woman will become
Prime Minister" – Margaret Thatcher, 1974
• "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high
plateau" – Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University,
1929
• “Everything that can be invented has been invented." – Charles
H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899 [urban
legend]

Dstl is part of the

Individual experts - 2

• Philip Tetlock: “Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It?,” 2005
– 20-year study of 28000 predictions by 284 pundit, political academics and theorists

• Experts barely did better than random guesses
– Very basic computer models did far better

• More prominent the pundit; the worse the estimate
– Usually did better making political predictions outside their area of greatest expertise

• Experts tend to attach great importance to things they know about –
even if these are not critical to the outcome

Slide based on Opinion Piece by Daniel Finkelstein. The Times. 04 Jan 12.

Dstl is part of the

Use groups of experts?

• Seek consensus amongst experts
– Doesn‟t always exist – especially at margins of a discipline or
issue
– Especially about the future!
– Not the complete solution

Dstl is part of the

The dangers of linear extrapolation

Prediction Reality

“Precisely wrong”

Time Time

Futures
“Imprecisely right”

Time

Dstl is part of the

Science & Technology
horizon scanning in Dstl

Dstl is part of the

Uses of S&T horizon scanning in Dstl

“ Dstl seeks to ……understand science and technology risks and
opportunities through horizon-scanning”.
National Security through Technology: Technology, Equipment and Support for UK
Defence and Security. Cm 8278. Feb 12

IN ORDER TO:
– Prioritise R&D programmes

– Inform strategic Corporate Planning

– Improve the Return on Investment in R&D

Dstl is part of the

Dstl S&T horizon scanning
The current state of human knowledge about
non-defence S&T developments…….

…….is contained (reasonably
completely) in the content of the WWW

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b9/WorldWideWebAroundWikipedia.png/220px-WorldWideWebAroundWikipedia.png

Dstl is part of the

Dstl S&T horizon scanning:
examples of web sources used
Category Examples
Popular science New Scientist, Science Daily, Physorg (aggregators),
Technovelgy…
News BBC S&T, ABC (US and Australia), The Indian…

Online journals RSC, Nature, Science, Web of Knowledge (aggregators)…

Government Labs Argonne, NIST (US and Japan), CSIRO (Australia)…
360° horizon

Research Councils MRC, NERC, ESPRC…

Academia MIT (Technology Review), Harvard, Queensland, Imperial…

Blogs New Scientist, Wired, Technorati (search engine)…

E-print servers ARXIV, PLoS (open access), Sciences preprint…

Protoscience Scifiblog, DVICE, …

Patents Derwent II, Espacenet, Inventorspot…

Specialist sites Nanotechnology Now, Alternative Energy News, Medgadget…

list of >500 sources
Dstl is part of the

scanning not searching

• In searching, we describe what is (likely to be)
interesting before we retrieve it.

• In scanning, we realise what‟s interesting after
we‟ve retrieved it.

• The key challenge is then to turn a search
engine into a scanning engine.

Dstl is part of the

searching for excitement
Look for developments containing, e.g…

 revolutionary  ground-breaking
 unprecedented  paves the way
 world‟s first  close to reality
 first time  breakthrough
 orders of magnitude  ……
 paradigm  ……
 previously impossible
http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1171409

Dstl is part of the

„Sentiment searching‟ on WWW

“INNOVATIVE BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH*”
OR “MUCH-NEEDED BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “REAL BREAKTHROUGH*”
OR “RECENT BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “REVOLUTIONARY BREAKTHROUGH*”
OR “SIGNIFICANT BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH*”
OR “TECHNOLOGY BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “BREAKTHROUGH DISCOVERY”
OR “BREAKTHROUGH IDEAS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH RESULT”
OR “BREAKTHROUGH REVEALS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH SCIENC*”
OR “BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOG*” OR “BREAKTHROUGH THINKING”
OR “BREAKTHROUGH* CAN DELIVER” OR “BREAKTHROUGH FOR BASIC”
OR “BREAKTHROUGH FOR APPLIED” OR “POSSIBLE BREAKTHROUGH*”
OR “BREAKTHROUGH* USING NEW” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* IN FUTURE”
OR “BREAKTHROUGH* IN QUALITY” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* IN SCIENC*”
OR “BREAKTHROUGH KEY ENABLERS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* TO HARNESS”
OR “BREAKTHROUGH FOR UNDERSTANDING”

Dstl is part of the

Dstl web-scanning for sentiment:
possible limitations
Social ?

Scope Technological √
Economic ?
Environmental ?
Political ?

Currency Time to publish

Access To what‟s not web-published

Dstl is part of the

Social, Technological, Economic,
Environmental, Political (STEEP)
Horizon Scanning in
Government Office for Science
Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre

Dstl is part of the

HSC methodology:
a “Scan of Scans”
Expert
Inputs
Scanning
of Gap
New HS
scans analysis
research
e-database Response
Sigma Scan Testing
Secondary
Analysis
inc.weak signals

Peer review

Dstl is part of the

Adam Smith Institute British Social Attitudes Europe 2020 Central Intelligence Agency Amnesty International
Arlington Institute Survey Future of Work (US) Board of Deputies of
Atlantic Monthly Centre for Environmental Futures Commonwealth Secretariat British Jews
Research, Columbia Competition Commission British Council
Brookings Institution University Futurist
Cato Center for Trade Institute for the Future DEFRA Baseline Scan Countryside Alliance
e-Living (EC 5FP) Project
Policy Studies McKinsey Global Institute DEFRA Forward Look International Red Cross
Centre for European
ESRC Centre for Department for Culture, and Red Crescent
Business Research, MORI Polls Movement
Reform Media and Sport
Institute of Development Shaping Tomorrow Make Poverty History
Centre for Strategic and Department for International
International Studies Studies Shell Global Scenarios Development campaign

Chatham House Los Angeles Law Review Siemens Horizons Department for Work and Muslim Council of Britain

Foreign Affairs Policy Studies Review SRI Consulting Pensions Oxfam

Hoover Digest Russian Journal, The World Future Society Department of Education Trade Union Congress
(US) World Health Organization
Independent Commission Science
on Population and Quality Department of Health World Trade Organization
Science and Public
of Life Department of Justice (US) Institute for Public Policy
Policy
Institut de Recherche en Department of Labor (US) Research
Politiques Publiques World Values Survey
Institute for Fiscal Studies

SIGMA Scan: scan of scans: >250 papers:
STEEP-wide Corporate Foresight
Charities/NGOs
the top Horizon Scan sources Expert/Strategic
Think tanks thinkers Blog sites
global coverage Academic Government sources Minority
publications communities
Alternative journals
both „traditional‟ and Futurologists
Mainstream media
„unconventional‟

Dstl is part of the

The Horizon Scanning Centre‟s Sigma Scan : www.sigmascan.org

Homepage: accessed 30 Mar 12

Dstl is part of the

Sigma Scan: example topics
Social, Economic,
Environmental, S&T
Political • Active biomaterials for
regenerative medicine
• Right to live: right to die? • Quantum chemistry for
• Global courting : the supremacy pollution abatement
of international law • Nanowire sensors for DNA
• Increase in e-commuting testing
• UK rules OK : isolationist Britain • Advent of molecular
• End of public broadcasting archaeology
• Ghettoisation of minority • Computing on the human
populations platform
• Landfill capacity limits reached • Solar: the energy wild-card
• Economic impact of ageing • From ink-jet printing to personal
• The “rights” of robots fabrication
• Corrupting aid flows • Brazil‟s expanding tech. sector
• …………………. • ………………….

Dstl is part of the
26 Ministry of Defence

The rationale

• The future is uncertain.
• All decisions are made about the future.
• Therefore, decision-makers need to get and use
information about the future.

Horizon Scanning can help!

Dstl is part of the

Dstl is part of the

UK National Security Strategy, Jun 09

Chapter 4: The UK Government‟s Approach to
National Security: interests, planning assumptions
and organisation

4.1 “This chapter sets out how we apply the principles and
Strategic Framework discussed in Chapter 3 to the
particular interests and concerns of the United Kingdom
and its people. Drawing on an assessment of these
interests, and our work on horizon scanning about the
future development of threats and drivers ………..”

Dstl is part of the

EMERGING TRENDS IN THE SCIENCE BASE
Horizon scanning
5.15 The previous section concluded
“Horizon scanning is a vital tool”

Dstl is part of the

Some other uses of horizon
scanning in Govt.
• “….. guarding against technological surprise through
horizon scanning”. Equipment, Support, and Technology
for UK Defence and Security: A Consultation Paper. Cm
7989. Dec 10

• Threat Identification

• Prioritisation of R&D programmes

• Departmental and other strategies
Dstl is part of the

Dr Harry Woodroof: Introduction to Horizon Scanning

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Dr Harry Woodroof: Introduction to Horizon Scanning