Rating Agencies: The Risk Of Over-reliance On Ratings

RATING AGENCIES: The Risk of Over-reliance on Ratings An “Insider’s” View Markus Krebsz, MSI SII Risk Forum, London - 24 Feb 2009

CONTENT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

QUESTION 1: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: www.defaultrisk.com

QUESTION 2: ,[object Object],[object Object]

RATING PRINCIPLES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RATINGS MAPPING TABLE Moody’s: D Source: Bloomberg, Fitch, Moody’s and S&P

[object Object],SUPER-SENIOR RATINGS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RATING DEFINITION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RATINGS… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],… and are “hard-wired”…

STATISTICAL: Probability of Default Source: Fitch Ratings

RATINGS SCOPE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RATING ACTIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RATINGS are used by … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],in order to …

FAILURES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

CRITICISM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

THE RISKS OF OVER-RELIANCE - AND SUITABLE MITIGANTS

TIMELY ACTIONS and DEFERRAL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Rating process: Timeliness of Rating changes

OPERATIONAL RISKS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RISK MITIGANTS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Q & A ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

CONTACT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

ANNEX: Ratings & Probability of Default (PD)

Rating Agencies: The Risk Of Over-reliance On Ratings

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Rating Agencies: The Risk Of Over-reliance On Ratings