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[ This is an industry and company
                         American
                          analysis. Although the age of the
                      data make this presentation obsolete,
                       Superconductor
                       the company name is obscured out
                      of consideration for the former client. ]




Jessica Margolin
Margolin Consulting

                                Trends in Technology Investing    1
Breakthrough Issues …

Global Warming Effects            Fuel Prices                                   Public Policy




 Socially Responsible
     Investment




                         Source: The Statistical Review of World Energy 2005, BP Website, June, 2005
                                                                                                       2
Breakthrough Issues …

Global Warming Effects     Fuel Prices              Public Policy




 Socially Responsible
     Investment          …Need Breakthrough Technology
                            Cleaner Energy Sources

                            Lower Use through Greater Efficiency

                            Reliable Distribution
                                                                    3
But Advances in Materials => Risks
        Political Risks
           Incentivization
           Regulation
           Market Resistance (NIMBY)


        Competitive Risks
           Competing Technologies
           Competing for Re-Aligned Markets


        Technology Development Risks
           Might not work
           Might be leapfrogged


        Business Management Risks
           Research Lab to ROI Production: People & Processes
           Opportunistic Employees

                                                                4
But Advances in Materials => Risks
        Political Risks
           Incentivization
           Regulation
           Market Resistance (NIMBY)


        Competitive Risks
           Competing Technologies
           Competing for Re-Aligned Markets




                                              5
Risky to Choose Power Generation

         Oil                           Renewables
                                             Solar
         Natural Gas
                                             Wind, Wave
         Coal                                Mini-Hydro
         Nuclear Energy                      Hydrogen
                                             Geothermal
         Hydroelectricity                    Landfill Gas
                                             Waste Incineration
                                             Biomass

Political Risks
    Incentivization
    Market Resistance (NIMBY)


Competitive Risks
    Competing Technologies
    Competing for Re-Aligned Markets
                                                                  6
… Less Risky Choice: Transmission




            Transmission &
            Distribution




                                    7
CapEx for Transmission Market
Almost $10 trillion of the total $16
trillion of capital needed in the
energy industry will be for the
power sector.
OECD countries will need to invest $4
trillion in their power sectors, half of it for
transmission and distribution grids.

Replacement of old power plants will                                                     $0.8 Trillion
account for much of the investment in
                                                                                         US + Canada T&D
power generation in those countries, since
more than a third of today’s capacity is
likely to be retired over the next thirty
years.

More than 40% of OECD electricity
investment will occur in the United
States and Canada, which will remain
the largest electricity market in the
world. Despite the relative maturity of
the system, its investment requirements
will also be larger than in any region
except China.




Source (Text): OECD/ IEA; World Energy Investment Outlook, 2003 Insights

Source (Image), edited: RBC Capital Markets, Alternative Energy, Myth or Reality – A Public Market
Perspective European Energy Venture Fair 2004.                                                             8
Manage Regulatory Risk

• Contribute to Policy Regulation
• Have Relationships with Agencies
• Technology considered Nationally Strategic




                                               9
But Advances in Materials => Risks




        Technology Development Risks
           Might not work
           Might be leapfrogged


        Business Management Risks
           Research Lab to ROI Production: People & Processes
           Opportunistic Employees


                                                                10
Manage Development Risks

   •   Monitor Technology
   •   High Barriers to Entry
   •   High Risk / Low Feedback Culture => Methodical
   •   Reputation Transparency => Integrity
   •   Additional Competencies (Service, Software)



Technology Development Risks
   Might not work
   Might be leapfrogged


Business Management Risks
   Research Lab to ROI Production: People & Processes
   Opportunistic Employees
                                                        11
Investment Strategy

   Fundamentally Novel Advanced Materials Technology

   Secure Demand: Energy Issues

   Leverageable Across Many Product Applications with
   Big Markets

   Longterm Buy: Hold for 3-5 years

   Preferred:

      Returns sooner rather than later

      Risks managed as well as possible
                                                        12
Investment Strategy
                                  Superconductivity
                                               High Temperature: Type 2

  What is it?
  • Region where resistence goes to
    zero. Believed to be because of
    Cooper pairs. (electrons generating
    phonons that keep them together)
  • Type 1 Superconductors are low
    temperature, and are completely
    superconducting (Hc1(T))
  • Type 2 Superconductors allow some
    penetration of magnetic field, so
    resistance isn’t truly zero.
    Performance depends on how well
    this penetration is pinned. “High”
    means Liquid Nitrogen temps, 77K.


                                                                                                                                  13
Source (Image): Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
High Temperature Superconducting Wire
                            Power Quality       Alternative Energy (Wind)




                            National Security
                                                Transportation
 High Tc Wire


                            Motors




Source: Semiconductor.org
                                                                    14
USA Universe

[ still under NDA ] and GE                    Intermagnetics claims
Energy Receive Order for                      superconductor performance
Two D-VAR(R) Systems from                     milestone
City of Detroit Public Lighting                    In the race to develop commercially
                                                   viable superconductor wire technology,
Department                                         the parent of SuperPower Inc.
   D-VAR installation expected to save             announced on Wednesday that the
   City of Detroit $10 million annually            Latham company had set a new world
   in operating expenses. 5/10/06                  record for performance.
                                                   5/23/06

[ still under NDA ] Wins Award
for 'Technology in the                        Intermagnetics looks
Service of Science' from IEEE
Spectrum and EE Times                         to sell SuperPower
   New Breakthrough Product Receives          subsidiary
   Third Major Award in Past Six                   Intermagnetics General Corp. is now
   Months                                          seeking a possible sale or spin-off of its
   SAN JOSE, Calif., 4/05/06                       energy technology division as it focuses
                                                   more on its medical products
                                                   businesses. 3/01/06




                                                                                            15
Worldwide

    Europe          US       Japan


*            *                       *
                                     *




*
                                     16
Worldwide




  [ news article ]




                     17
American Superconductor (AMSC)

SuperMachines                              [ ] Wires          Power Electric Systems
$3.7B growing to $6.9B in Yr10           $10B Cu Market       PowerModule converters (PM1000)




• Industrial motors $1 billion,     •   to SuperMachines        • D-VAR (Dynamic-VAR) $200-250
Mature, growing 2-4% annually       •   to PES                  MM market growing at 4% annually
• Utility Generators 1.6 Billion,   •   to OEM for cable        • D-SMES (Superconductor Magnetic
Refurb, growing 2-4% annually       •   to OEM for Machines     Energy Storage)
• Small Generators 0.4 Billion,           - Maglev Train        • PQ-IVR (Power Quality - Industrial
growing 2-4% annually                                           Voltage Restorer)
                                          - Mag Separators
• Electric Ship motors $450
million/yr, growing at up to 20%
for next 10 years due to
transition to electric motors


                                                                                             18
Superconducting Wire
                                                  Cables




                                                                                                HTS vs. Copper:
                                                                                                    Much higher power throughput
                                                                                                    Reduces grid congestion




Source: AMSC presentation U.S. Department of Energy 2005 Annual Superconductivity Peer Review

                                                                                                                        19
Superconducting Wire
                         Magnets

HTS vs. copper:                   HTS vs. LTS:
        Higher field                         Higher field
        Lower weight                         More field stability
        Smaller                              Far simpler cryo design =>
                                             lower design and
                                             manufacturing costs




                  => lower operating costs




                                                                          20
HTS Component Fabrication & Refrigeration
  HTS-110 (New Zealand)
          HTS product development and
          manufacturing; modeling and design of
          HTS products; HTS coil fabrication and
          testing; HTS magnet design, fabrication
          and testing; and cryogenic system
          integration.

  Cryomagnetics, Inc. (Oak Ridge, TN)
          Superconducting magnets; Dewars;
          Cryogenic Instrumentation and
          Accessories


  Scientific Magnetics (England)
          Superconducting and Cryogenic Systems

  Ricor (Israel)
          Designs, manufactures, sells and
          maintains cryocoolers for various
          applications




                                                    21
Context of HTS Wire Timeline


 1987
1987 - Founded
1991 - HTS 1G
                 ///   2003
                         Jan
                                   2004
                                    Mar
                         Commercial 155,000 m
                                                2005
                                                Mar
                                                389,000 m
                                                               2006
                                                                Mar
                                                                1700 m
                                                                         2007
                                                                         Apr
                                                                         Sales target
                                                                                        2008   2009
                                                                                               Dec
                                                                                                         2010

                                                                                               Full capacity
1995 - HTS 2G            Production                                      10,000 m              8,000,000m/yr
                                                Sep                                            $30MM capex
                                                Pre-pilot 2G             Dec
                                                                         Capacity target
                                                Dec                      300,000 m
                                                2G - 1000 m ship         720,000 m




                                                                                                               22
Manufacturing




  Headquarters in Westborough, MA   HTS wire manufacturing plant in Devens, MA




Source: AMSC Website

                                                                          23
Cables




                                                                                        HTS Manufacturing in Deven, MA




 Sources: Left - Sumitomo Right - AMSC presentation U.S. Department of Energy 2005 Annual Superconductivity Peer Review

                                                                                                                          24
Cryogenics of Cable T&D
How is it kept cold?




      Source: AMSC presentation U.S. Department of Energy 2005 Annual Superconductivity Peer Review   25
What is HTS2?




  Source: AMSC 2005 Annual Report



                                    26
What is HTS2?




 Source: AMSC 2005 Annual Report


                                   27
Recap


Strong forces create volatility => opportunities, but also risks.

Manage risks
    •   fundamental and leverageable underlying technology: HTS wire
    •   strong need with few alternatives: power transmission better than generation
    •   proven ability to plan and execute: strong business function track record

AMSC has few US competitors and strong international position
    •   First to market in military, grid, and cable applications
    •   Says no competitor in 2G that can ship performance and volume (yet)
    •   Most serious competitor: Sumitomo (partners with SuperPower)




                                                                                       28
Company Financial
“We expect fiscal 2007 to be a                    We are now in FY 2007
momentous year for AMSC as we                     (Mar 2006-Mar 2007)
deliver a series of very important
world firsts,” Yurek, May 2006.                   • PES - Profitable for first time growing
                                                  revenues 35% to $20MM.
• SuperMachines: Deliver the world’s first        • SuperMachines - flat to decline (transition
36.5 ship propulsion motor to the US Navy.        year. Watch contract for third hull engine for
                                                  new Navy destroyer.)
• PES: Deliver the first commercial HTS power
                                                  • Cable - flat to decline (transition year).
grid product - the SuperVAR
• AMSC Wire: Install and operate the world’s
first transmission voltage HTS power cable in a
commercial gird                                   Transition year to 2G HTS is ahead
                                                  of schedule

                                                  • Reduced Price of 1G HTS wire
                                                  • Wrote down 1G inventory (400,000 meters)
                                                  $1.6M
                                                  • Wrote down 1G equip $5.0M
                                                  • Settled $2.7M with legal challenge



                                                                                                   29
Company Financial
                                              Revenues

                                                                                  $50.9




                                                                                  2006




                Revenues by Business                            2006                   2005
                AMSC Wires                                   14,206,913             11,511,637
                SuperMachines                                21,663,884             31,107,572
                Power Electronic Systems                     15,001,651             15,663,629



               Operating Loss by Business     2006                                    2005
               AMSC Wires                 (27,204,629)                            (15,885,775)
               SuperMachines                 (707,593)                                412,308
           *   Power Electronic Systems    (3,683,314)                                 66,067

Sources: Top - AMSC presentation U.S. DOE 2005 Annual Superconductivity Peer Review; Bottom - AMSC 2006 Earnings Conference Call   30
Company Financial
   Margins by Business 2007
   AMSC Wires                 30-35%
                                               • Limited by Capacity
   SuperMachines              varies           • Break-Even at 2,000,000 m
   Power Electronic Systems   40-50%
                                               • Enough cash through 2008

   Opportunities                  Number        Comment
   AMSC Wires - 2G ahead of schedule, saves 20% cost on projections
     Replacement Cables              2100        Immediate need (EPRI) ($10k-100k/sale?)
     DOE new contract in Aug         ??          Must bid; Timing uncertain. Not included.
   SuperMachines - FIRST: engine, fault interrupter (I.e. surge protector)
     De-Gaussing Systems             3           Foreign Navy visitors to AMSC
     New Destroyers                  1           Total of 2 each on 7 DDX ships
     Non-military ships              ??          Creating Alliance
     SuperVAR                        ??          Tennessee Valley Authority
     Fault Protectors                ??          Shipped to Asia-Pacific region
   Power Electronic Systems - Lowered costs through research in 2006
     Detroit Situations              100         AMSC analysis, at $2.4 MM per sale
     Wind Turbines                   ??          Grid interconnect stds esp UK, AUS, ES


                                                                                        31
Company Culture
                            Low Feedback, High Risk:
                                • Methodical Cultures
                                • Conservatism
                                • Transparency



“The full anticipated
value of these potential
new contracts for power
cables [DOE] and
rotating machines
[Navy] are not included
in the company's current
budget or revenue
estimates for fiscal 2007
because of uncertainty
with respect to the
structure and timing of
government contracts.
Overall, AMSC expects
that its revenues for
fiscal 2007 will be
relatively in line with
fiscal 2006.”

- Yurek, May 2006



                                                        32
SuperMachines




                33
Mature Business Process &
Established Facilities




                            34
Government Includes AMSC
In 60-entity Strategic Summit




                                35
Technology improvements aren’t invisible
             Grant funded




                                           36
Fundamental Value Creators
                       IP - Reputation - Relationships

                            Strategic business alliances include
• Electricite de France - The world's largest electric utility
• GE Energy - A global leader in manufacturing products used to distribute, protect and control
electrical power and equipment
• Ideal Electric - a designer and manufacturer of electric generators, motors and associated
equipment
• Long Island Power Authority - Long Island’s primary electric service provider
• Nexans - A global expert in cables and cabling systems
• Northrop Grumman Marine Systems - a world leader in the design, development, and
manufacture of defense and commercial electronics systems.
• Siemens - a global power systems company
• Suzuki Shokan Co. - distribution partner for 344 Superconductors in the Japanese market
• U.S. National Laboratories
• Ultera - a joint venture between two of the world's leading wire and cable firms, Southwire
Company, and nkt cables and is dedicated to the development and commercialization of HTS
power cables.
•Tennessee Valley Authority - the largest public power company in the United States
• United States Navy


                                                                                                  37
Reputation
2004 Superconductor Industry Person of the Year
  (shared award)

“But underpinning all is the fact that the commercialization of a
highly complex materials science must go right! It requires deep
scientific understanding, great energy, great belief, and a steadfast
commitment. Alex … is a vital part of the technical leadership of
the whole field.”
- David Larbalestier, Director, Applied Superconductivity Center, U of WI

“I deeply value his work structuring the development roadmap of
2G HTS wire, and his methodical approach to overcoming all
technical obstacles, allowing his team to reach successfully
targeted milestones. … His faith in the continuous progress of
superconductor performance is based on an outstanding
knowledge of material science and applied technology.”
- Jacques Jouaire, Vice President, Research and Development, Electricité de France (EDF)

“ During his career at AMSC he strongly pushed forward both the
basic understanding of HTS materials and the practical application
for devices of power engineering. “
- Heinz-Werner Neumueller, Power Components & Superconductivity, Siemens AG




                                                                                           38
Valuation
Size of market? Est. via Cu Wire

From Cu industry data: 3,700 millions of
pounds of copper, of which 47% of market
goes to copper wire applications, so roughly:

3billion / 2 = 1.5 billion pounds Cu.

Absolutely guessing from price of retail Cu
wire, which seems to be about $8/lb., this is
about $12 billion market.

(Retail Cu premium speaker cable is about
$30/lb. Cu)




                                                39
Stock Value
Back of the Envelope
       $10 Billion Market in 2006 (conservative)
       Doesn’t include new HTS products
       ! Surge Protector
       ! Wind Farms
Competitive Threats
       Copper
       HTS Competitors
Dilution
       Will they really avoid needing more capital to scale operations?
       !They say they won’t through 2008
       !They have zero debt




                                                                          40
Summary

• An Infrastructure solution with Breakthrough Technology
• Also social benefits (security, stable power) and facilitates
  distributed alternative energy (e.g. wind farms)
• Typical Technology Risk during Scale-up mitigated by Core
  Technology, Company Maturity, Government Buy-In and
  Social Visibility




                                                                  41
.




    Appendices
    Appendix




                 42
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY
What is it
• Region where resistence goes to
  zero. Believed to be because of
  Cooper pairs. (electrons
  generating phonons that keep
  them together)
• Type 1 Superconductors are low
  temperature, and are completely
  superconducting (Hc1(T))
• Type 2 Superconductors allow
  some penetration of magnetic
  field, which creates current
  vortices, so resistance isn’t truly
  zero.




                                        43
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY
Why does it do that
      Type I (cooper pairs joined by
      phonon)
      Type II (incomplete H
      penetration leading to vortices)
Electronic devices (e.g. SQUIDs,
  Josephson Junctions) are Type 1

AMSC and others using Type 2




                                         44
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY
   What is “vortex pinning”?

   Defects in the lattice pin the
     vortices, which are areas of non-
     superconductivity.




Source: Mathematical Models and Numerical Simulations of Superconductivity: an Introduction. Qiang Du, Department of Mathematics,
Pennsylvania State University.
                                                                                                                                    45
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY
   • Crystal Structure




Source: Mathematical Models and Numerical Simulations of Superconductivity: an Introduction. Qiang Du, Department of Mathematics,
Pennsylvania State University.
                                                                                                                                    46
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY




                                                                                                                          47
Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY




                                                                                                                          48
Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY




                                                                                                                          49
Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY




                                                                                                                          50
Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY




                                                                                                                          51
Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY




Source: Superconductors.org
                                52
APPENDIX 2: COPPER
Using Copper wire in industrial use (mag, cable) as a proxy, the market is
  $10B approximately, worldwide.
Copper is a commodity, while 2G HSC is premium
Price parity with copper by end of decade.




                                                                                     Cu $/lb




                                                                                      1/04      1/06       1/08    1/10


                                                                                               $8-14/lb. by 2010
  Source: Left - London Metals Exchange http;//www.lme.co.uk Right - Margolin Consulting

                                                                                                                    53
APPENDIX 3: NANOTECH UNCERTAINTY
                    Groups challenge FDA on nanoparticles
    May 17, 2006 -- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has been challenged on the way it
    regulates skin products with nanoparticle ingredients.

    Friends of the Earth and the International Center for Technology Assessment filed a petition with
    the FDA and called for better monitoring and regulation of products like sunscreen and cosmetics,
    The San Francisco Chronicle reports.

    The groups have released a report of products they claim contain ingredients small enough to seep
    into the body and effect brain chemistry.

    During a telephone news conference from Washington, George Kimbrell, an attorney for the groups,
    said they will sue if the FDA doesn't make changes within 180 days to how they study and regulate
    nanoparticle products.

    FDA spokeswoman Susan Cruzan said the agency will look into the "development and use" of
    nanoparticles but said there isn't any data showing it is hazardous.

                                   Copyright 2006 by United Press International
Political Risks                    This news is brought to you by PhysOrg.com

    Regulation

                                                                                                   54

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Sample Financial Analysis

  • 1. [ This is an industry and company American analysis. Although the age of the data make this presentation obsolete, Superconductor the company name is obscured out of consideration for the former client. ] Jessica Margolin Margolin Consulting Trends in Technology Investing 1
  • 2. Breakthrough Issues … Global Warming Effects Fuel Prices Public Policy Socially Responsible Investment Source: The Statistical Review of World Energy 2005, BP Website, June, 2005 2
  • 3. Breakthrough Issues … Global Warming Effects Fuel Prices Public Policy Socially Responsible Investment …Need Breakthrough Technology Cleaner Energy Sources Lower Use through Greater Efficiency Reliable Distribution 3
  • 4. But Advances in Materials => Risks Political Risks Incentivization Regulation Market Resistance (NIMBY) Competitive Risks Competing Technologies Competing for Re-Aligned Markets Technology Development Risks Might not work Might be leapfrogged Business Management Risks Research Lab to ROI Production: People & Processes Opportunistic Employees 4
  • 5. But Advances in Materials => Risks Political Risks Incentivization Regulation Market Resistance (NIMBY) Competitive Risks Competing Technologies Competing for Re-Aligned Markets 5
  • 6. Risky to Choose Power Generation Oil Renewables Solar Natural Gas Wind, Wave Coal Mini-Hydro Nuclear Energy Hydrogen Geothermal Hydroelectricity Landfill Gas Waste Incineration Biomass Political Risks Incentivization Market Resistance (NIMBY) Competitive Risks Competing Technologies Competing for Re-Aligned Markets 6
  • 7. … Less Risky Choice: Transmission Transmission & Distribution 7
  • 8. CapEx for Transmission Market Almost $10 trillion of the total $16 trillion of capital needed in the energy industry will be for the power sector. OECD countries will need to invest $4 trillion in their power sectors, half of it for transmission and distribution grids. Replacement of old power plants will $0.8 Trillion account for much of the investment in US + Canada T&D power generation in those countries, since more than a third of today’s capacity is likely to be retired over the next thirty years. More than 40% of OECD electricity investment will occur in the United States and Canada, which will remain the largest electricity market in the world. Despite the relative maturity of the system, its investment requirements will also be larger than in any region except China. Source (Text): OECD/ IEA; World Energy Investment Outlook, 2003 Insights Source (Image), edited: RBC Capital Markets, Alternative Energy, Myth or Reality – A Public Market Perspective European Energy Venture Fair 2004. 8
  • 9. Manage Regulatory Risk • Contribute to Policy Regulation • Have Relationships with Agencies • Technology considered Nationally Strategic 9
  • 10. But Advances in Materials => Risks Technology Development Risks Might not work Might be leapfrogged Business Management Risks Research Lab to ROI Production: People & Processes Opportunistic Employees 10
  • 11. Manage Development Risks • Monitor Technology • High Barriers to Entry • High Risk / Low Feedback Culture => Methodical • Reputation Transparency => Integrity • Additional Competencies (Service, Software) Technology Development Risks Might not work Might be leapfrogged Business Management Risks Research Lab to ROI Production: People & Processes Opportunistic Employees 11
  • 12. Investment Strategy Fundamentally Novel Advanced Materials Technology Secure Demand: Energy Issues Leverageable Across Many Product Applications with Big Markets Longterm Buy: Hold for 3-5 years Preferred: Returns sooner rather than later Risks managed as well as possible 12
  • 13. Investment Strategy Superconductivity High Temperature: Type 2 What is it? • Region where resistence goes to zero. Believed to be because of Cooper pairs. (electrons generating phonons that keep them together) • Type 1 Superconductors are low temperature, and are completely superconducting (Hc1(T)) • Type 2 Superconductors allow some penetration of magnetic field, so resistance isn’t truly zero. Performance depends on how well this penetration is pinned. “High” means Liquid Nitrogen temps, 77K. 13 Source (Image): Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
  • 14. High Temperature Superconducting Wire Power Quality Alternative Energy (Wind) National Security Transportation High Tc Wire Motors Source: Semiconductor.org 14
  • 15. USA Universe [ still under NDA ] and GE Intermagnetics claims Energy Receive Order for superconductor performance Two D-VAR(R) Systems from milestone City of Detroit Public Lighting In the race to develop commercially viable superconductor wire technology, Department the parent of SuperPower Inc. D-VAR installation expected to save announced on Wednesday that the City of Detroit $10 million annually Latham company had set a new world in operating expenses. 5/10/06 record for performance. 5/23/06 [ still under NDA ] Wins Award for 'Technology in the Intermagnetics looks Service of Science' from IEEE Spectrum and EE Times to sell SuperPower New Breakthrough Product Receives subsidiary Third Major Award in Past Six Intermagnetics General Corp. is now Months seeking a possible sale or spin-off of its SAN JOSE, Calif., 4/05/06 energy technology division as it focuses more on its medical products businesses. 3/01/06 15
  • 16. Worldwide Europe US Japan * * * * * 16
  • 17. Worldwide [ news article ] 17
  • 18. American Superconductor (AMSC) SuperMachines [ ] Wires Power Electric Systems $3.7B growing to $6.9B in Yr10 $10B Cu Market PowerModule converters (PM1000) • Industrial motors $1 billion, • to SuperMachines • D-VAR (Dynamic-VAR) $200-250 Mature, growing 2-4% annually • to PES MM market growing at 4% annually • Utility Generators 1.6 Billion, • to OEM for cable • D-SMES (Superconductor Magnetic Refurb, growing 2-4% annually • to OEM for Machines Energy Storage) • Small Generators 0.4 Billion, - Maglev Train • PQ-IVR (Power Quality - Industrial growing 2-4% annually Voltage Restorer) - Mag Separators • Electric Ship motors $450 million/yr, growing at up to 20% for next 10 years due to transition to electric motors 18
  • 19. Superconducting Wire Cables HTS vs. Copper: Much higher power throughput Reduces grid congestion Source: AMSC presentation U.S. Department of Energy 2005 Annual Superconductivity Peer Review 19
  • 20. Superconducting Wire Magnets HTS vs. copper: HTS vs. LTS: Higher field Higher field Lower weight More field stability Smaller Far simpler cryo design => lower design and manufacturing costs => lower operating costs 20
  • 21. HTS Component Fabrication & Refrigeration HTS-110 (New Zealand) HTS product development and manufacturing; modeling and design of HTS products; HTS coil fabrication and testing; HTS magnet design, fabrication and testing; and cryogenic system integration. Cryomagnetics, Inc. (Oak Ridge, TN) Superconducting magnets; Dewars; Cryogenic Instrumentation and Accessories Scientific Magnetics (England) Superconducting and Cryogenic Systems Ricor (Israel) Designs, manufactures, sells and maintains cryocoolers for various applications 21
  • 22. Context of HTS Wire Timeline 1987 1987 - Founded 1991 - HTS 1G /// 2003 Jan 2004 Mar Commercial 155,000 m 2005 Mar 389,000 m 2006 Mar 1700 m 2007 Apr Sales target 2008 2009 Dec 2010 Full capacity 1995 - HTS 2G Production 10,000 m 8,000,000m/yr Sep $30MM capex Pre-pilot 2G Dec Capacity target Dec 300,000 m 2G - 1000 m ship 720,000 m 22
  • 23. Manufacturing Headquarters in Westborough, MA HTS wire manufacturing plant in Devens, MA Source: AMSC Website 23
  • 24. Cables HTS Manufacturing in Deven, MA Sources: Left - Sumitomo Right - AMSC presentation U.S. Department of Energy 2005 Annual Superconductivity Peer Review 24
  • 25. Cryogenics of Cable T&D How is it kept cold? Source: AMSC presentation U.S. Department of Energy 2005 Annual Superconductivity Peer Review 25
  • 26. What is HTS2? Source: AMSC 2005 Annual Report 26
  • 27. What is HTS2? Source: AMSC 2005 Annual Report 27
  • 28. Recap Strong forces create volatility => opportunities, but also risks. Manage risks • fundamental and leverageable underlying technology: HTS wire • strong need with few alternatives: power transmission better than generation • proven ability to plan and execute: strong business function track record AMSC has few US competitors and strong international position • First to market in military, grid, and cable applications • Says no competitor in 2G that can ship performance and volume (yet) • Most serious competitor: Sumitomo (partners with SuperPower) 28
  • 29. Company Financial “We expect fiscal 2007 to be a We are now in FY 2007 momentous year for AMSC as we (Mar 2006-Mar 2007) deliver a series of very important world firsts,” Yurek, May 2006. • PES - Profitable for first time growing revenues 35% to $20MM. • SuperMachines: Deliver the world’s first • SuperMachines - flat to decline (transition 36.5 ship propulsion motor to the US Navy. year. Watch contract for third hull engine for new Navy destroyer.) • PES: Deliver the first commercial HTS power • Cable - flat to decline (transition year). grid product - the SuperVAR • AMSC Wire: Install and operate the world’s first transmission voltage HTS power cable in a commercial gird Transition year to 2G HTS is ahead of schedule • Reduced Price of 1G HTS wire • Wrote down 1G inventory (400,000 meters) $1.6M • Wrote down 1G equip $5.0M • Settled $2.7M with legal challenge 29
  • 30. Company Financial Revenues $50.9 2006 Revenues by Business 2006 2005 AMSC Wires 14,206,913 11,511,637 SuperMachines 21,663,884 31,107,572 Power Electronic Systems 15,001,651 15,663,629 Operating Loss by Business 2006 2005 AMSC Wires (27,204,629) (15,885,775) SuperMachines (707,593) 412,308 * Power Electronic Systems (3,683,314) 66,067 Sources: Top - AMSC presentation U.S. DOE 2005 Annual Superconductivity Peer Review; Bottom - AMSC 2006 Earnings Conference Call 30
  • 31. Company Financial Margins by Business 2007 AMSC Wires 30-35% • Limited by Capacity SuperMachines varies • Break-Even at 2,000,000 m Power Electronic Systems 40-50% • Enough cash through 2008 Opportunities Number Comment AMSC Wires - 2G ahead of schedule, saves 20% cost on projections Replacement Cables 2100 Immediate need (EPRI) ($10k-100k/sale?) DOE new contract in Aug ?? Must bid; Timing uncertain. Not included. SuperMachines - FIRST: engine, fault interrupter (I.e. surge protector) De-Gaussing Systems 3 Foreign Navy visitors to AMSC New Destroyers 1 Total of 2 each on 7 DDX ships Non-military ships ?? Creating Alliance SuperVAR ?? Tennessee Valley Authority Fault Protectors ?? Shipped to Asia-Pacific region Power Electronic Systems - Lowered costs through research in 2006 Detroit Situations 100 AMSC analysis, at $2.4 MM per sale Wind Turbines ?? Grid interconnect stds esp UK, AUS, ES 31
  • 32. Company Culture Low Feedback, High Risk: • Methodical Cultures • Conservatism • Transparency “The full anticipated value of these potential new contracts for power cables [DOE] and rotating machines [Navy] are not included in the company's current budget or revenue estimates for fiscal 2007 because of uncertainty with respect to the structure and timing of government contracts. Overall, AMSC expects that its revenues for fiscal 2007 will be relatively in line with fiscal 2006.” - Yurek, May 2006 32
  • 34. Mature Business Process & Established Facilities 34
  • 35. Government Includes AMSC In 60-entity Strategic Summit 35
  • 36. Technology improvements aren’t invisible Grant funded 36
  • 37. Fundamental Value Creators IP - Reputation - Relationships Strategic business alliances include • Electricite de France - The world's largest electric utility • GE Energy - A global leader in manufacturing products used to distribute, protect and control electrical power and equipment • Ideal Electric - a designer and manufacturer of electric generators, motors and associated equipment • Long Island Power Authority - Long Island’s primary electric service provider • Nexans - A global expert in cables and cabling systems • Northrop Grumman Marine Systems - a world leader in the design, development, and manufacture of defense and commercial electronics systems. • Siemens - a global power systems company • Suzuki Shokan Co. - distribution partner for 344 Superconductors in the Japanese market • U.S. National Laboratories • Ultera - a joint venture between two of the world's leading wire and cable firms, Southwire Company, and nkt cables and is dedicated to the development and commercialization of HTS power cables. •Tennessee Valley Authority - the largest public power company in the United States • United States Navy 37
  • 38. Reputation 2004 Superconductor Industry Person of the Year (shared award) “But underpinning all is the fact that the commercialization of a highly complex materials science must go right! It requires deep scientific understanding, great energy, great belief, and a steadfast commitment. Alex … is a vital part of the technical leadership of the whole field.” - David Larbalestier, Director, Applied Superconductivity Center, U of WI “I deeply value his work structuring the development roadmap of 2G HTS wire, and his methodical approach to overcoming all technical obstacles, allowing his team to reach successfully targeted milestones. … His faith in the continuous progress of superconductor performance is based on an outstanding knowledge of material science and applied technology.” - Jacques Jouaire, Vice President, Research and Development, Electricité de France (EDF) “ During his career at AMSC he strongly pushed forward both the basic understanding of HTS materials and the practical application for devices of power engineering. “ - Heinz-Werner Neumueller, Power Components & Superconductivity, Siemens AG 38
  • 39. Valuation Size of market? Est. via Cu Wire From Cu industry data: 3,700 millions of pounds of copper, of which 47% of market goes to copper wire applications, so roughly: 3billion / 2 = 1.5 billion pounds Cu. Absolutely guessing from price of retail Cu wire, which seems to be about $8/lb., this is about $12 billion market. (Retail Cu premium speaker cable is about $30/lb. Cu) 39
  • 40. Stock Value Back of the Envelope $10 Billion Market in 2006 (conservative) Doesn’t include new HTS products ! Surge Protector ! Wind Farms Competitive Threats Copper HTS Competitors Dilution Will they really avoid needing more capital to scale operations? !They say they won’t through 2008 !They have zero debt 40
  • 41. Summary • An Infrastructure solution with Breakthrough Technology • Also social benefits (security, stable power) and facilitates distributed alternative energy (e.g. wind farms) • Typical Technology Risk during Scale-up mitigated by Core Technology, Company Maturity, Government Buy-In and Social Visibility 41
  • 42. . Appendices Appendix 42
  • 43. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY What is it • Region where resistence goes to zero. Believed to be because of Cooper pairs. (electrons generating phonons that keep them together) • Type 1 Superconductors are low temperature, and are completely superconducting (Hc1(T)) • Type 2 Superconductors allow some penetration of magnetic field, which creates current vortices, so resistance isn’t truly zero. 43
  • 44. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY Why does it do that Type I (cooper pairs joined by phonon) Type II (incomplete H penetration leading to vortices) Electronic devices (e.g. SQUIDs, Josephson Junctions) are Type 1 AMSC and others using Type 2 44
  • 45. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY What is “vortex pinning”? Defects in the lattice pin the vortices, which are areas of non- superconductivity. Source: Mathematical Models and Numerical Simulations of Superconductivity: an Introduction. Qiang Du, Department of Mathematics, Pennsylvania State University. 45
  • 46. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY • Crystal Structure Source: Mathematical Models and Numerical Simulations of Superconductivity: an Introduction. Qiang Du, Department of Mathematics, Pennsylvania State University. 46
  • 47. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY 47 Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
  • 48. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY 48 Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
  • 49. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY 49 Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
  • 50. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY 50 Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
  • 51. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY 51 Source: Mikael Mulot, Helsinki University of Technology, University of Optoelectronics, S-104.3310, Updated Feb 6, 2006
  • 52. APPENDIX 1: SUPERCONDUCTIVITY Source: Superconductors.org 52
  • 53. APPENDIX 2: COPPER Using Copper wire in industrial use (mag, cable) as a proxy, the market is $10B approximately, worldwide. Copper is a commodity, while 2G HSC is premium Price parity with copper by end of decade. Cu $/lb 1/04 1/06 1/08 1/10 $8-14/lb. by 2010 Source: Left - London Metals Exchange http;//www.lme.co.uk Right - Margolin Consulting 53
  • 54. APPENDIX 3: NANOTECH UNCERTAINTY Groups challenge FDA on nanoparticles May 17, 2006 -- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has been challenged on the way it regulates skin products with nanoparticle ingredients. Friends of the Earth and the International Center for Technology Assessment filed a petition with the FDA and called for better monitoring and regulation of products like sunscreen and cosmetics, The San Francisco Chronicle reports. The groups have released a report of products they claim contain ingredients small enough to seep into the body and effect brain chemistry. During a telephone news conference from Washington, George Kimbrell, an attorney for the groups, said they will sue if the FDA doesn't make changes within 180 days to how they study and regulate nanoparticle products. FDA spokeswoman Susan Cruzan said the agency will look into the "development and use" of nanoparticles but said there isn't any data showing it is hazardous. Copyright 2006 by United Press International Political Risks This news is brought to you by PhysOrg.com Regulation 54