October turned out to be a rather positive and optimism inducing month - with most positive global news coming in along with the adaptation of dovish stance by RBI.
2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13
Commodities 14
Real Estate 17
2
3. From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
October turned out to be a rather positive and optimism Debt markets have regained some of their shine with the
inducing month - with most positive global news coming in end in sight for the monetary policy tightening. In light of
along with the adaptation of dovish stance by RBI. The festive the RBI statement on the eve of policy announcement, we
season helped maintain a positive sentiment. While the results believe that long term corporate and quasi-government
of several listed companies disappointed investors, especially debt has now become attractive to invest in. While the
in the infrastructure space, the beginning of the end of interest rates may yet go up slightly after a brief pause,
monetary policy tightening has rekindled investor's hopes. they are near their peak and investors can start to buy
long tenor bonds and long term debt mutual funds.
European governments (especially French and German) have
continued to test the limits of global financial system as they Looking back at the year gone by so far, one would notice
dither, argue about and re-re-redraft the comprehensive the large movements in gold, US Dollar in the positive
rescue plan for the troubled governments of Greece, Portugal, direction while equities in the negative direction. That got
Spain and the pre-emptive action to avoid larger ones like Italy us thinking about whether these assets can be combined
from losing market access. With their self imposed deadline of into a portfolio which is optimized dynamically - with the
the November 3rd G20 summit for reaching a consensus on intention of minimizing risks for a good return. We have
the rescue plan drawing near, there are positive signs of action designed just the right portfolio for this. This month we
in the major European capitals. We continue to believe that are launching Pi - our multi asset quant fund. The simple
Euro as a currency will survive, Greece may default (though idea of Pi is to make sure that investors' wealth grows
indirectly and partially) while Portugal et al will not. Due to a year on year on the back of appreciation of one or more
disorderly default in a Greece or a failure to reach any decisive of its constituent asset classes i.e. equities, commodities,
plan for rescue of others there might be significant downside gold and currencies.
in equity markets; however the likelihood of this happening is
lower than 10%.
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.20” 3
5. Economy Update - Global
• An annual expansion of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2011 has pushed American GDP back
to pre-recession levels after 15 quarters, according to figures released last week.
US • United States’ Consumer Confidence for the month Oct 2011 is at 39.80, which has
dipped from 46.40 in September 2011.
• Greece’s debt will be reduced, private banks and insurer are asked to accept 50 percent
losses on the Greek bond holdings, and the rescue fund EFSF will be strengthened,
supported also by non-European investors
Europe • The CPI rose 0.6% in September increasing the inflation for the year to 5.2% higher from
an expected estimate of 4.9%. The inflation number is the highest since Sept 2008
• The seasonally adjusted Markit /JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 50.6 in
October, up from 49.3 in September, signalling a marginal improvement in manufacturing
Japan sector operating conditions. A level over 50 also signifies growth while a level below 50
indicates contraction.
• The jobless rate slid to 4.1% from 4.3% in Sept’11, and the core food inflation was steady
at 0.2%.
Emerging • China’s HSBC PMI Index came in at 51.0(Oct’11), a solid rebound from the 49.9 recorded in
economies September to mark the first rise above the 50 level that demarcates contraction from
expansion since June’11.
5
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
16.0% IIP monthly data • The GDP growth rate for Q1 FY12 came in at 7.7%, the
14.0% weakest in last 6 quarters. The growth was seen at 7.8% in
12.0%
10.0%
the last quarter. The economic growth for FY11 was 8.5%
8.0% backed by improved farm output and growth in the
6.0% services sector.
4.0%
2.0% • "While the manufacturing sector grew 7.2 percent in April-
0.0% June from a year earlier, construction was a dark spot in
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
the data, rising just 1.2 percent annually, down from 7.7
percent a year earlier, as higher interest rates dampened
• IIP figure came in at 4% which was lower than the the housing market and big-ticket projects were plagued by
consensus of 4.4%. A look at the subsectors clearly points delays in approvals. Mining output grew 1.8 percent,
to a broad-based slowdown of sub-4% YoY growth across
sectors. Apart from electricity which continues to grow at compared with 7.4 percent a year ago while Financing,
close to double digits (9.5% YoY), manufacturing (4.5% insurance, real estate and business service grew 9.1 percent
YoY) and mining (-3.4% YoY) continued to disappoint. On versus 9.8 percent a year ago.
the user side, capital goods remained volatile growing at • A steady rise in interest rates combined with stubbornly
3.9% YoY in Aug-11. high inflation would impact demand and credit sensitive
sectors making a growth target of 8% difficult to achieve.
• Revisions for July are significant in mining, manufacturing
and consumer goods sectors. Overall IIP growth was
revised upwards from 3.3% YoY to 3.8% YoY. 10.0 GDP growth
9.0
• The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year and
8.0
especially after the introduction of the new series. We
believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation may 7.0
not a very efficient way of indicating long term growth. 6.0
We expect the growth to eventually moderate out though
5.0
high input costs may be a dampener for the
manufacturing sector. 4.0
FY10(Q2) FY10(Q3) FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1)
6
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs • The inflation rate in India was reported at 10.1
Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
percent in Sept’2011 vis-à-vis 9.78% in
30.0%
August‘11. Food inflation, as measured by the
25.0%
Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at 12.21%
20.0%
15.0%
on the week ending 22nd Oct’11 vis-à-vis at
10.0%
13.55% in the corresponding week of the
5.0%
previous year.
• With the monetary tightening stance by RBI, we
do expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate
• The credit grew 23% on a y-o-y basis while deposits out eventually.
grew at ~21% in September. Even though RBI has
been raising interest rates, an increase was seen in
personal loans.
10.0% Wholesale Price Index
• Due to the successive increase in the cost of 9.5%
borrowing, a moderation has been seen in the credit 9.0%
growth and the current estimate for the Fiscal is ~ 8.5%
17-19%.
8.0%
• On account of the slowing growth in the economy 7.5%
and the expected decrease in inflation, a pause is
expected in the interest rate hikes.
* End of period figures
7
8. Equity Outlook
The last of October saw a sharp rally in risky assets across the world on statement by the Governor remains has changed from hawkish to dovish
the back of the three –pronged agreement reached by European Union with growth continuing to remain under pressure. The governor talked
political leadership to stem the contagion from the soverign-debt crisis: A about ‘De-sesonalized quarter-on-quarter headline and core inflation
voluntary 50% hair cut for private investors in Greek debt which would measures showing moderation’. According to RBI, inflation will start
help reduce soverign debt in greece, Recapitalizing seventy European falling in December and will moderate to about 7% by March 2012. The
banks to the extent of 108 billion dollars and increasing the size of Governor also said that ‘likelihood of a rate action in December mid-
European Union Financial Stabilty Fund (EFSF) to 1.4 trillion dollars which quarter policy review is relatively low’. RBI has cut the FY12 growth
would provide support to other peripheral Euro area countries.. All the forecast from 8% to 7.6%. RBI has effectively hiked rates by 525 bps in
three measures combined with further fiscal austerity measures were last sixteen months and this could result in demand destruction leading
supposed to stem the contagion in European markets. to price moderation. Our own sense is that considering the significant
slowdown in growth expectation, Rbi will definitely pause if not end the
The Greek Prime minister announced that he will put the bailout package
rate tightening cycle now.
given to Greece through a referendum due to lack of political consensus
in Greece. The referendum is expected to happen in the month of FII’s put in 2500 of fresh money into Indian equity markets which
December and will decide if Greece will accept the terms of the bailout resulted in markets rallying almost 7%.The rupee after depreciating
package. It is our view that for Euro area to sustain, sooner or later, almost 13% to 50 levels has bounced slightly and stabilized around 49
European governments will have to move towards some kind of fiscal mark. We believe this provides a very exciting entry opportunity in equity
union to prevent a full-blown crisis. A move in the opposite direction markets for dollar investors. The second quarter earnings have come in
could have huge economic and political costs. on expected lines. The earning season has been led by private sector
banks, FMCG and automobiles. ITC and HUL came in with excellent
Third quarter GDP data in US came in at 2.5%, above consensus
results and both are trading at life time highs. We continue to remain
expectations which eased concerns about US economy moving towards a
positive on FMCG names as consumption demand remains quite strong.
double-dip. The dollar Index fell 5% resulting in sharp bounces in equity,
PSU banks continue to face pressure on the asset quality with power
commodities and crude oil. In this month’s US Fed meeting, the markets
books coming under great pressure. Also, Infra companies continue to
will look for any indication of further quantitative easing although Fed
face pressure due to high interest rates and lack of new orders.
Chairman continues to mention that Fed has several tools available at
their disposal to spur growth and they will use it as and when required. With interest rates peaking out and inflation also expected to start
US consumer demand has been holding up so far and the Thanksgiving coming down in next few months, we expect that the coming months
holiday buying will give a good indicator of how that demand will move should see improvement in equity market sentiment. We advise
from here onwards. investors to stay invested and build a longer term equity portfolio.
RBI hiked repo rates by 25bps on 25th October. The tone of the policy
8
9. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare Over weight developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
FMCG Over weight
growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over
other sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics
E&C Neutral
under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies and utilities over T&D and other
infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics.
Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
BFSI Neutral
good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe banks
will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels
Telecom Neutral in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we
believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
9
9
10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started
Automobiles Neutral coming down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural
vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about
Metals Neutral growth in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices will bounce back once
growth recovers and hence would be positive on industrial metals space.
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Under weight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply side.
Cement Under weight
We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters.
IT space might come under pressure due to continued concerns about growth in developed parts of
IT/ITES Under weight the world. While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order
inflows might slow down in near term
We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by engineering
Power Utilities Under weight services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal prices have been
on the way up putting pressure on return ratios.
11. Debt Outlook
9.1 Yield curve 9.30 10-yr G-sec yield
9.0
8.80
8.9
8.8 8.30
8.7
7.80
8.6
8.5
(%)
7.30
8.4
8.3 6.80
7.1
0.0
0.9
1.8
2.7
3.5
4.4
5.3
6.2
8.0
8.8
9.7
10.6
11.5
12.4
13.3
14.1
15.0
15.9
16.8
17.7
18.5
19.4
• The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield increased by 44 bps in October to close at 8.88%. This was after
an increase of 25 bps in the interest rates by RBI.
• The medium term papers rallied the most in the month and rose 52 bps to close at 8.83%. While the
G-sec yields increased, the 10 year AAA corporate paper yields remained constant at 9.84%.
• Though no easing has been seen in the inflation figures, a pause is expected by the RBI and no hike
may be seen in the immediate future though the central bank would monitor the inflation closely.
11
12. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
We recommend investment into short term bond funds with
a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to
Short Tenure deliver superior returns due to high YTM. We have seen the
Debt short term yields harden due to reduced liquidity and
consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Till
these factors do not stabilize, we see Short term bond funds
and FMPs as an interesting investment option.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at
the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed
Credit Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also
contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at
current levels attractive.
RBI hiked the interest rates for the 13th time since march 2010 by
25 Bps, the repo rate now stands at 8.5% and reverse repo at
Long Tenure 7.5%. RBI has shown an intention to pause further rate hikes.
Our stance on long term debt remains neutral believe that it may
Debt
be a good time to start looking for interesting investment
opportunities in the medium term.
12
13. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
100 0
-2000
5.00% 80 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
-4000
4.00% 60 -6000
3.00% 40 -8000
-10000
20
2.00% -12000
0 -14000
1.00%
-20 -16000
0.00%
-1.00% USD GBP EURO YEN • India’s merchandise exports grew 36.4 per cent in September,
-2.00% reaching $24.8 billion from $18.2 bn a year before. However,
-3.00% this is a much lower rise than the previous two months. In July,
-4.00% exports grew 81.8 per cent; in August, these rose 44.2 per cent
-5.00% 140000
Capital Account Balance
• INR appreciated by about 1% during the month. Also, 90000
during the month it did witness a low of 50.07, but
recovered after some stability was sensed in the 40000
International markets. It closed at 48.87 at the end of
the month. -10000
FY 10 (Q2) FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1)
• The Eurozone currencies strengthened in the month as a • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and
decision was taken to write of 50% of the debts and to stood at `273133 Cr. at the end of the year. For FY 12, the
capital account is at `93,621Cr. for Q1.
strengthen the EFSF bringing some sense of containment
• We expect factors as higher interest rates to attract more
of the Eurozone crisis. investments to India. Increased limits for investment by
FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though
uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a
dampener.
13
14. Commodities
30000
The problems in the Euro Zone is far from over as concerns Gold
28000
were raised on the implementation of proposed Greece
26000
bailout package. Further, concerns were raised on Chinese 24000
Precious Shadow lending and possible slowing or the hard landing in 22000
China. The fundamental factors largely remained
Metals unchanged and Indian market has seen fresh buying
20000
18000
demand during the festive Diwali Season despite prices
staying higher. Expect gold prices to remain firm as any
correction shall be supported by physical purchases.
Crude
The recent bout of global uncertainty have pressurized 130.0
120.0
crude oil amid concern of double dip recession in the US 110.0
and global economy slipping into red. We expect crude oil 100.0
Oil & Gas prices have topped out in the interim and can only move 90.0
80.0
down from here on. We have seen some firmness in the 70.0
prices post the announcement of Greece bailout package, 60.0
31-May-2011
30-Sep-2010
31-Jan-2011
28-Feb-2011
31-Mar-2011
30-Jun-2011
30-Aug-2010
31-Dec-2010
30-Apr-2011
31-Aug-2011
31-Oct-2010
30-Nov-2010
31-Jul-2011
nevertheless, any such temporary uptick shall not be
sustained. Expect crude oil prices to be steady.
14
15. Product in Focus
Orion 4
Objective:
– To generate superior fixed income payoff (return) while preserving the capital.
– To generate appreciation even if the reference index is at (or above) 105% of its initial level.
Payoff Scenario:
– If final level is greater than or equal to strike level, then the structure pays an absolute coupon of 21% (annualized return of
13.56%).
– In case, if the final level is below the strike level, no coupon is paid out, but structure remains capital protected.
Nifty Digital Growth Product Specifications Payoff At Maturity
Reference Index S&P CNX Nifty Index If Final Level >= Strike Level Principal * (1 + Coupon)
Tenor 15 / 18 Months If Final Level < Strike Level Principal * (1 + 0%)
Coupon 21%
Strike Level 105% of Initial Level
Initial Level Reference Index as on Trade Date
(1/3)* Σ Reference Index(i); where
Final Level i=13M to 15M
15
16. Product in Focus
Pi - Multi Asset Quant Portfolio
• Pi is a multi-asset quantitative portfolio investing in Nifty, Gold, Crude oil and USDINR through liquid futures contracts in NSE and
MCX and other major exchanges
• Pi is managed using a well defined quantitative strategy with no human intervention in the execution of the strategy
• Pi is aimed at generating positive and consistent absolute returns through investing into assets with low correlations
• Investment horizon for investing in Pi is 24 months and above
Nifty Crude Oil Gold USD Pi
Average annual rolling returns 14% 19% 25% 2% 38%
Worst annual rolling returns -58% -54% 5% -13% 9%
Worst calendar quarterreturns -23% -61% -8% -2% -2%
• The average annual rolling returns of Pi are higher than its constituents –driven largely by the dynamic quantitative approach
• While most asset classes have significantly large negative annual rolling returns; Pi has minimum annual rolling return of 9%
(positive)
• The worst calendar quarter for most Nifty and crude oil have been as low as -23% and -61% respectively. For Pi the worst quarter
has been -2%
16
17. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
Strong pre-launch sales still keeps the developers far from The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the
any correction, though sales are down to alsmost 35% infrastructure development in these cities have made the
since last quarter, there is no correction visible. The over- residential development spread across the city limits. On
supplied locations are stagnant and would be similar for an average price is still affordable. Key development
the coming 2 quaters. Entry points anywhere from Rs. developer are seeing demand of 3BHK and luxury
3000 - Rs. 6000 per sqft in cities like Pune, NCR, development but are only doing well if the project size is
Residential Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore are still considred limited to 100-150 units. The trend seems to be favorable
lucarative by first time home -buyers depending on their since there is lot of Investor demand comes from smaller
usage. The retail investors (2nd home buyers) and HNI cities closer to these Tier-II & III cities. Excellent time to
investors vary or delaying their decision with expectation buy anything between Rs. 3000-3500 sqft with known
of correction. Mumbai stands still tall with prices on their developers.
peak in over-supplied market also. Correction again are
reported only on media and not on ground level.
Advice Price point entry is the key. Good time to sell. Time right to buy, look at 3-8 acre developments only
Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious expansion Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike Tier-I
approach by corporate, this segment has gone through the price differentiation is double favoring commercial
correction. Rates per sqft have seen almost 30% down- since most of them are in CBD areas.
trend and will be stagnant for the coming 2-3 quarters.
Commercial/IT
Surely, the segment is at the down-tip of the cycle, and is
the best opportunity for companies looking for long term
holding of real estate office space.
Advice Excellent time to buy smaller office spaces at CBD areas Space not defined well, depends on independent needs.
17
18. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets
sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are
seen a major transformation on all its business expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and
aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would
consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety, always have capital protected due to dearth of
Retail less innovation, existence with competition, available space..
maximizing bottom line than top-line approach have
been making the retailers smarter. Revenue share
model with a built in MG is how the deals are done
Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit
commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity
Land since it can be used as tangible and most credible
pledge against business
Advice Hold Land, if Owned Hold Land, if Owned
1. Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
2. Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
3. The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
18
19. Why Karvy Private Wealth?
Open Architecture – Widest array of products
We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
• Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
• Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class
Intensive Research
We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines
truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio
Honest, unbiased advise
Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or
broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
The KPW 3-S Service promise:
When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
S Service Promise” :
• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience
• Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking
• Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products
Pedigreed Senior Management Team
A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
19
20. Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained
herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness
thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions
based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting
upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated
companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from
time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades,
if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of
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employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.
The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult
their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once
the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments
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21