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ADVICE for the WISE


    Newsletter – MARCH 2013




                              1
Contents


Index                        Page No.

Economic Update                   4

Equity Outlook                    8

Debt Outlook                     12

Forex                             14

Commodities                       15

Real Estate                       16




                                        2
From the Desk of the CIO…
         Dear Investors,
         The Union Budget 2014 presented in the Parliament on 28th                                         have become very attractively priced as a result. We believe the
         February provoked different reactions from investors, common                                      upside to risk ratio of these stocks at the prevailing prices is
         man and industry. While it disappointed investors – who were                                      highly attractive.
         hoping for a path-breaking slew of reforms – it remained                                          Global risk appetite saw some caution creep in through
         prudent in its outlays and fiscal deficit targets. Debt and equity                                February. The Italian election results made investors revisit their
         markets alike reacted with negative movement on the day of the                                    scenarios of fresh trouble in Eurozone. The hung parliament and
         budget. Part of the reaction was driven by confusion in the fine                                  the possibility of anti-austerity parties having a significant say in
         print related to the tax treaties. As the air cleared over that,                                  the ruling coalition has investors starting to worry about the
         equity markets recovered to pre-budget levels. On the balance                                     future of Euro again. The final word of Italian government is yet
         though, the effect of budget is unlikely to last beyond few days.                                 to come. However, macroeconomic data from US has cheered
         Participants in both debt and equity markets are now starting to                                  investors back into a sense of business as usual. The pending
         speculate about RBI’s move in the monetary policy                                                 negotiations in US over the sequestration may bring jitters back.
         announcement due this month. There are those that believe the                                     However, most investors have grown habituated to the political
         fiscal prudence that marked the budget is likely to give RBI                                      brinkmanship in US and Eurozone alike and have increasingly
         enough comfort to embark on aggressive monetary policy                                            started to express an almost dangerous faith in things finally
         easing. Others maintain that the fiscal deficit numbers for FY14                                  working themselves out.
         are hard to achieve and RBI knows it just as well, thus keeping                                   On the equities front, the tail (improbable but highly damaging)
         the earlier trade off of growth and inflation almost unchanged,                                   event risks remain quite real at current valuations. Either a
         and monetary policy easing slow. We belong to the former camp                                     suitably structured exposure to equities with downside
         and believe that RBI will cut rates quickly if not very aggressively,                             protection or the ability to ignore the short term noise because
         in the next few months.                                                                           of the turbulence is a good defense against these risks. Taking
         Equities markets saw renewed turbulence in the run up to and                                      exposure to USD through currency futures, investing in dollar-
         after the budget. While broad markets experienced some                                            denominated assets or taking explicit put option cover are some
         amount of volatility, mid-caps faired much worse. Several good                                    of the specific guards against the improbable event risks.
         quality mid-cap stocks saw a major correction. Some of these                                                                                                                                3
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 18”
Economic Update - Snapshot of
                                    Key Markets
                                                                                                                 125       Sensex     Nifty         S&P 500   Nikkei 225

                                                   As on   28th      Change over          Change over            120
                                                                                                                 115

                                                   Feb 2013           last month            last year            110
                                                                                                                 105
                                                                                                                 100
                         BSE Sensex                   18862              (5.2%)                6.2%               95
                                                                                                                  90


       Equity            S&P Nifty                     5693              (5.7%)                5.7%               85
                                                                                                                  80

       Markets           S&P 500                       1515               1.1%                10.9%
                                                                                                                9.20
                         Nikkei 225                   11559               3.8%                18.9%             8.70
                                                                                                                8.20
                                                                                                                                              10 yr Gsec
                                                                                                                7.70
                                                                                                                7.20

                         10-yr G-Sec Yield            7.87%               1 Bps              (34 bps)
   Debt Markets          Call Markets                 7.89%             (15 bps)            (109 bps)
                         Fixed Deposit*               8.75%              25 Bps              (50 bps)          33000
                                                                                                               32000           Gold
                                                                                                               31000
                                                                                                               30000
                                                                                                               29000
                                                                                                               28000
                         RICI Index                    3692              (4.0%)               (5.7%)           27000
                                                                                                               26000
                                                                                                               25000
     Commodity           Gold (`/10gm)                29517              (2.2%)               3.2%%
      Markets
                         Crude Oil ($/bbl)            114.5              (0.9%)               (6.3%)
                                                                                                                 59
                                                                                                                                              `/$
                                                                                                                 57
                         As on   25th   Feb 2013
                                                                                                                 55
                                                                                                                 53
                                                                                                                 51
                                                                                                                 49
         Forex           Rupee/Dollar                  53.8              (0.9%)               (9.0%)             47
                                                                                                                 45
       Markets           Yen/Dollar                    91.8              (0.9%)              (12.4%)
• Indicates SBI one-year FD                                                                                                                              4
•New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
Economy Update - Global
            • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in January, rebounded in
              February. The Index now stands at 69.6 (1985=100), up from 58.4 in January

   US
            • Gross Domestic Product was revised at an annual rate of 0.1%in the Q4 CY 12 as compared to the 0.1%
              drop that was originally reported. However, the growth is much lower than last quarter’s annual rate of
              3.1%.

            • The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remain unchanged in February 2013 at
              47.9. The PMI held steady in February, but some consolation can be gained from the fact that January’s
              reading was the highest for 11 months, suggesting that the manufacturing downturn has eased so far this
 Europe       year compared to the pace of decline seen throughout much of last year.
            • Euro-zone unemployment rate rose to a record to 11.9% in January 2013 from an upwardly revised 11.8%
              in December 2012.

            • Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 48.5 in February 2013, up from 47.7 in January 2013.
              However, by remaining below the 50.0 mark for an ninth successive month, the PMI again pointed to a
              deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions.
  Japan
            • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came at 4.2% in January 2013, down from upwardly revised
              4.3% in December 2012.

            • China’s HSBC PMI posted a reading of 50.4 in February 2013 down from 52.3 in January 2013, signalling a
              marginal strengthening of operating conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector.
 Emerging   • India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) posted 54.2 in February 2013, up from the reading of 53.2
economies     in January 2013 signaling a further improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector.
            • India’s GDP growth for the quarter ending December 2012, slipped to 4.5%. The Indian economy had
              grown by 5.5% and 5.3% in first and second quarter of FY 12 respectively.
                                                                                                                        5
Economy Outlook - Domestic
 10.0%
  8.0%                                                                   • The country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 10-year
  6.0%                           IIP                                       low of 4.5% during the third quarter of the current financial
  4.0%                                                                     year, hurt by a slowdown in agriculture, mining and
  2.0%                                                                     manufacturing, pushing the projected annual growth rate down
  0.0%
                                                                           further. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 6%
 -2.0%
                                                                           in the same period of last fiscal.
 -4.0%
 -6.0%
                                                                         • The economic growth in the first nine months of this fiscal
         Dec   Jan   Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 12 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
         11    12    12 12 12 12 12             12 12 12 12 12             (April-December) stood at 5%. The manufacturing sector grew
                                                                           an annual 2.5% during the quarter while farm output rose just
• India's industrial production unexpectedly shrank for a second           1.1% & mining fell by 1.4%.
  straight month in December, weighed down by weak investment
                                                                         • The Industrial sector slightly rebounded to 3.3% during the
  and consumer demand. The index of industrial production (IIP) fell
                                                                           quarter from 2.7% y-o-y in the June quarter and 2.6% in the
  0.6% annually in December 2012. IIP for November has also been
                                                                           corresponding quarter of the previous year. India’s GDP growth
  revised downwards to negative 0.8% from 0.1% .
                                                                           pegged at 6.1%-6.7% for FY14; FY13 growth seen 5.0%. India's
                                                                           key eight core sector growth expands 3.9% in January following
• Cumulative growth in FY13 in Apr- Dec 2012 stands at 0.7% as
                                                                           2.5% growth in December.
  against a growth of 3.7% in corresponding period of the previous
  year. Mining registered -1.9% growth in April Dec 2012, as against -
                                                                         8.0     7.8      7.7
  2.6% during the same period last year. Manufacturing registered
                                                                         7.5
  near zero growth of 0.7% in April - Dec 2012, when compared with                                 6.9                         GDP growth
                                                                         7.0
  4.0% in April - Dec 2011.
                                                                         6.5                                6.1
                                                                         6.0
• The IIP number for December is at variance with the Purchasing                                                              5.5
                                                                         5.5                                         5.3               5.3
  Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which had risen to a five-
                                                                         5.0
  month high in December 2012. Perhaps this divergence can be                                                                                   4.5
                                                                         4.5
  explained by the fact that while PMI survey data is from large
                                                                         4.0
  companies, the IIP numbers include smaller firms.                            FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3)
                                                                                                                                                         6
Economic Outlook - Domestic
           Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs                            India’s headline inflation declined sharply to 6.62% in January
21.0%
                            Bank Credit      Aggregate Deposits            from 7.18% in December, its slowest pace in three years. It is
19.0%
17.0%
                                                                           the fourth consecutive monthly decline. WPI declined as the
15.0%                                                                      prices of fuel and manufactured items cooled moderately in
13.0%                                                                      December, compared to those in the previous month.
11.0%                                                                      Manufacturing goods inflation declined to 4.81% from 5.04%
 9.0%                                                                      while fuel prices rose 7.06% in January from those a year
 7.0%                                                                      earlier, compared with an annual rise of 9.38% in December.
 5.0%

                                                                          Food inflation, as a category, rose to 8.5% during the month,
                                                                           from 8.32% a year ago. Food articles have 14.3% share in the
  As on Jan 2013 Bank credits grew by 16.1% on a Y-o-Y basis              WPI basket. For the fuel and power category, inflation
   which is about 0.9% higher than the growth witnessed in                 moderated to 10.02% during the month from 15.48% in
   December 2012. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at              November 2011. However, diesel inflation increased by 14.60%
   13.2%, viz-a viz a growth of 11.1% in December 2012.                    last month.

  On 29th January 2013, Reserve Bank of India cut the repo rate-         Consumer price inflation climbed to 10.79% in January, while
   the key policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% in its 3rd Quarter      factory output for December shrank 0.6%, all indicating that the
   review. Cash reserve ratio (CRR) was also reduced by 25 basis           ongoing slowdown could get worse.
   points to 4%.
                                                                        8.0%   Wholesale Price Index
                                                                        7.8%
  If correcting macroeconomic imbalances is good for growth, then      7.6%
                                                                        7.4%
   fiscal discipline has at last begun to move in that direction. The   7.2%
   estimated fiscal deficit for 2012-13 was a tad lower than            7.0%
                                                                        6.8%
   targeted at 5.2% of GDP, and is forecast to shrink to 4.8% of GDP    6.6%
                                                                        6.4%
   in 2013-14. Meaningful fiscal influence upon the economy will        6.2%
   come from abating the threat of a ratings downgrade, lesser          6.0%

   demand boost and, hence, more room for monetary policy, all of
   which should support growth.
                                                                                                                                              7
  * End of period figures
Equity Outlook
                           Budget for FY14 came in on expected lines
Union Budget for FY14 turned out to be on expected lines with focus on fiscal consolidation. Finance Minister met his promise of
keeping fiscal deficit at 5.2% for FY13. The provisions for fuel and fertilizer subsidies look adequate this year and the fiscal deficit
number would be closer to 5% for FY14 if price hikes continue for auto fuels. The allowances for various entitlement programmes have
not been increased very meaningfully. Current account seems to be a bigger concern for the economy. We expect several measures to
boost export in the new Exim policy expected by month end. Direct Taxes Code (DTC) bill and Insurance bill are going to be introduced in
current Parliament session which will take the reform process forward. We expect RBI to take cognizance of these fiscal consolidation
measures and continue with monetary easing in its next review on 19th March. The correction in the markets in last three weeks has
opened up an attractive entry opportunity and we recommend investors to increase their exposure to equity.

Key Highlights of Budget

The fiscal deficit number has been penciled at 4.8% for FY14. The provisions for fuel and fertilizer subsidies look much better this year
and the fiscal deficit number would be closer to 5% if price hikes continue for auto fuels.

Direct Taxes Code (DTC) bill to be introduced in current Parliament session. No timelines have been given for implementation Goods and
services tax (GST).

On Revenue side, no change has been made in slabs and rate for personal income tax. Surcharge for domestic companies whose taxable
income exceeds Rs 10 crore per year is increased from 5% to 10%. In the case of foreign companies, the surcharge will increase from 2%
to 5%.The additional surcharges will be in force for only one year, that is for Financial Year 2013-14. One time voluntary compliance
scheme for service tax defaulters to be introduced. And interest and penalties will be waived
                                                                                                                                            8
Equity Outlook

Key Highlights
•   On the expenditure side, government has provided for Food subsidy of Rs.90,000 crs and is looking to implement Food
    security bill. The allowances for various other entitlement programmes have not been increased very meaningfully.


•   There was a lot of talk on boosting infrastructure & investment activity but no concrete provisions have come in. Marginal
    changes on investment allowance are unlikely to spur SME’s to start investing


•   Subsidies related to administering the Food Security Act have not been separately mentioned. An additional 10,000 crores
    has been earmarked in addition to the regular food subsidies of 80,000 crores.


•   GDP growth for FY14 is estimated at 6.1-6.7%. All tax estimates have been made keeping the mid point of this range as
    benchmark


•   In FY13, as against a target of Rs. 30,000 crs, the Government will raise about Rs25,000 crs from disinvestment. For FY14,
    Rs. 40,000 crs is to be raised through disinvestment.


•   Tax credit of Rs 2000 to be provided to every person having income of up to Rs 5 lakh; this will benefit 1.8 crore people. A
    person taking a loan for his first home from a bank or a HFC upto Rs 25,00,000 during 1.4.2013 to 31.3.2014 will be entitled
    to an additional deduction of interest of upto Rs 100,000.

                                                                                                                                   9
Sector View
  Sector        Stance                                                   Remarks


                           The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to
   BFSI       Overweight   increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to
                           better management quality and higher balance sheet discipline


                           We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such
  FMCG        Overweight   as Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be
                           disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.

                           Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also
Automobiles   Overweight   getting cheaper. We are more bullish on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser
                           competition and higher pricing power.


                           We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
                           generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare     Neutral     developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
                           pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. However, the government policy of putting price
                           control on selected drugs might cause some short term pressure on stock prices.


                           The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the
   E&C         Neutral     sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive
                           on this space.

                                                                                                                                    10
Sector View
    Sector          Stance                                                 Remarks


                                The regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have started
   Telecom          Neutral
                                to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.



                                Demand seems to be coming back in Europe. US volume growth has also remained resilient. With
    IT/ITES         Neutral
                                pricing already bottomed out, we have turned positive on the space selectively.


                                With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s
   Energy           Neutral     will come down during the course of the year. We are turning more constructive on the space
                                now.

                                We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in
Power Utilities     Neutral
                                earnings and decent return on capital.


                                Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about
   Metals         Underweight
                                growth in China and developed parts of the world.


                                Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a
   Cement         Underweight
                                strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.


                                                                                                                                  11
Debt Outlook
      8.2                 Yield curve                                          9.00           10-yr G-sec yield
      8.1                                                                      8.80
                                                                               8.60
      8.0
                                                                               8.40
(%)




                                                                         (%)
      7.9
                                                                               8.20
      7.8
                                                                               8.00
      7.7
                                                                               7.80
      7.6
                                                                               7.60
      7.5                                                                      7.40
      7.4                                                                      7.20


            12.6
             0.0
             0.8
             1.6
             2.4
             3.2
             4.0
             4.7
             5.5
             6.3
             7.1
             7.9
             8.7
             9.5
            10.2
            11.0
            11.8

            13.4
            14.2
            15.0
            15.7
            16.5
            17.3
            18.1
            18.9
            19.7
  • The 10 year benchmark G-Sec ended the month at 7.91% yield with a fall of 14 Bps during the month.

  • The G-Sec market started the last week of Feb on a positive note of OMO announcement, but lower GDP growth estimates.
    However, yields harden on high gross borrowing numbers.

  • Indian Government has provided Rs 2000 cr as premium towards interest payments for bond buybacks in FY14 and the buyback
    will be cash and fiscal deficit neutral.

  • On 29th January 2013, RBI cut the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by25bpsfrom 8% to 7.75% with
    immediate effect. RBI also cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks by 25 bps to 4% of their net demand and time
    liabilities (NDTL) effective the fortnight beginning February 9, 2013; as a result of this reduction, around Rs.18000 cr of primary
    liquidity will be injected into the banking system.

  • The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond increased to 104 Bps on 28TH February 2013 from 88 Bps(as on 31st January
    2013). The 28th February 2013 AAA Rated bond yields rose by 12 bps to 8.91% as compared to the yields a month earlier at
    8.79%.
                                                                                                                                          12
Debt Strategy
  Category     Outlook                                             Details
                         With the second policy rate cut that happened in Jan2013, with a 25 Bps cut
                         in Repo rate and CRR along with signals of future cuts in the policy rates in
                         the coming quarter, but as there is influence of global factors in the market, a
Short Tenure             lot of uncertainty is coupled with it, hence, we would recommend to invest
   Debt                  in and hold on to current investments in short term debt Due to liquidity
                         pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short
                         term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9%–
                         9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities.


                         Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current
                         yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity
   Credit                in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry
                         at current levels attractive.




                         Indian long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation owing to the expected
                         monetary easing. With the second policy rate cut happening in Jan2013, with a
                         25 Bps cut in Repo and CRR along with signals of future cuts in the policy rates
                         in the coming quarter, but along with this is a lot of uncertainty in the market
Long Tenure
                         and hence would recommend to hold on to the current investments in the
   Debt                  Longer term papers. These papers are suitable for both - investors who may
                         want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and
                         those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.



                                                                                                             13
Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M)                                    Trade balance and export-import data
 3.5%                       3.3%                                          30                     Export          Import           Trade Balance (mn $)              0

 3.0%                                                                     20                                                                                       -5000
                                                                          10                                                                                       -10000
 2.5%                                      2.2%
                                                                           0                                                                                       -15000
 2.0%                                                                     -10                                                                                      -20000
 1.5%                                                                     -20                                                                                      -25000
 1.0%                                                      0.7%
 0.5%
 0.0%                                                                       Exports during Jan, 2013 were valued at US $ 25.58 bn which was
 -0.5%                                                                      0.82% higher than the level of US $ 25.38 bn during Jan, 2012.
                                                                            Imports during Jan, 2013 were valued at US $ 45.58 Bn
 -1.0%
             -0.9%                                                          representing a negative growth of 6.12% over the level of
 -1.5%                                                                      imports valued at US $ 42.95 Bn in Jan 2012 translating into a
              USD            GBP           EURO            YEN              trade deficit of $19.96 Bn.
                                                                          140000
                                                                                                                  Capital Account Balance
• INR has appreciated against three major currencies other than
  USD. INR depreciated by 0.9% against the US Dollar. Rupee has            90000
  appreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year
  by 1.87%
                                                                           40000

• Recovery in US economy increased risk appetite among global
  investors, sending funds flowing into riskier assets, including those   -10000
                                                                                   FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
  in emerging markets. One more Factor for INR to strengthen is
  that it did not react adversely to fiscal deficit for April-December    • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised
  2012 being reported at Rs 407,000 crore, or 78.8% of the budgeted         from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised
  fiscal deficit of Rs 991,000 crore for fiscal 2010-13.                    downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.
                                                                          • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
• Volatility as last year is expected to continue as the rupee would        investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
  track cues from the domestic markets as well as global shores.            would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in
                                                                            the global markets could prove to be a dampener.

                                                                                                                                                                             14
Commodities
            Having risen consecutively for eleven years, dollar-gold price performance
            is one of the best among other asset classes, generating an annualized 33000
            return of 18%. The global financial system was flood with central banks
                                                                                                 Gold
            liquidity that had risen risk asset in the year 2012 and this is expected to 32000
            further lift risk asset prices in the year 2013. Given this backdrop, one
                                                                                         31000
            could expect a decent profit booking on the precious metal counter as the
Precious    money flow shall now be diverted to equities that was under owned since 30000
            2008. We also expect liquidity to dry up significantly around end of 1QCY
 Metals     following the ECB’s LTROs amid a sharp pull back in dollar index -following 29000
            the Fed’s signal to wind down the stimulus program this year - could 28000
            rattle global commodity prices. The controlled measures by the central
            bankers to curb gold demand with a prime objective being to shore up 27000
            confidence in the monetary and banking system, bullion in all probability 26000
            will not be a free market. As bullion derivatives market is far larger than
            the size of physical metal, a small trigger is sufficient enough to create a 25000
            big impact. Domestically, it now seems that gold has formed an
            intermediate top and one could see consider price pull back going ahead
            in the year 2013.

                                                                                           135

                                                                                           125
            The expectation of steadier global growth is a good news for the                            Crude
                                                                                           115
            oil counter given the excess liquidity available. There is no
            evidence of oil shortage and given the ample supply coupled with               105

            the decent growth prospects, we expect oil to remain firmer.
Oil & Gas   While China is expected to stage a good performance this year is
                                                                                           95


            positive for the oil market, the signal coming from the Fed on                 85

            unwinding of the stimulus program this year, keep a lid on the                 75
            prices. As the risk of oil spike has subsided considerably, the
            upside on this counter looks capped.

                                                                                                                15
Real Estate Outlook

 Asset Classes                                       Tier I                                                                     Tier II
                 Prices continued to be at peak levels in most markets with sales being slow,
                 more so in the premium segment. Going forward, the expectation of a general
                 recovery of the economy is likely to improve the sentiment in the real estate
                 sector. Residential asset class shall continue to be the prime focus. If the RBI
                 does implement key policy rates cuts, cheaper home loans will significantly
                 improve the liquidity in the market.
                                                                                                    Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend towards
                 A lot of new supply is expected to hit the market specially in NCR and Mumbai      nuclear families, increasing disposable income, rising
                 regions in the near future as developers have been waiting for some time for       aspiration to own quality products and the growth in
Residential      the liquidity situation to improve. In December, DLF launched a 13 acre            infrastructure facilities in these cities. Price appreciation is
                 project, SkyCourt in Gurgaon which was completely sold off.                        more concentrated to specific micro-markets in these cities.
                                                                                                    Cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,
                 On an average, projects with Rs. 4,000 – 5,000 per sq. ft. entry pricing with      Nagpur, Patna and Cochin are expected to perform well.
                 good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and Mumbai suburbs are expected
                 to see good percentage returns.

                 The recent increase of 5-30% in the Ready Reckoner values, used to calculate
                 the stamp duty cost, from January 1 by the Maharashtra Government may act
                 as the slight dampener for the Mumbai market.


                 Commercial asset class continues to be under pressure as most markets
                 continue to have an over-supply . Lease transactions are still slow as demand
                 has not yet revived. On an average, lease rentals have also not seen much
                 increase.                                                                          Lower unsold inventory and smaller unit sizes have led to
Commercial/IT
                                                                                                    stable lease rentals in Tier II cities.
                 However, specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger
                 lock-in periods may present good investment opportunities over a long-term
                 horizon.


                                                                                                                                                                       16
Real Estate Outlook

Asset Classes                                Tier I                                                        Tier II
                 Government has recently approved 51% foreign
                 ownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brand
                 retail. Entry of foreign retailers in the Indian markets may Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared
                 infuse new enthusiasm in the sector and improve the to mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these
                 demand for retail space.                                     rentals gets reported, these are expected to have been
                                                                              stagnant.
    Retail       However, it will take a gestation period of at least an year
                 for this to translate into actaul offtake of space. In the The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n the
                 immediate near term, unsold invesntory levels continue Tier-2 cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this
                 to be high levels and lease rentals stagnant.                phenomenon can be known with more certainty once the
                                                                              effect of FDI is more visible in Tier I cities.
                 Long term investments in retail space along pre-
                 eastblished hubs may be attractive.

                 As Tier I cities continue to grow, new proposed /
                 implemented infrastructure developments at the
                                                                       Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established
                 outskirts of these cities are making adjoining lands
    Land                                                               growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation
                 expensive and attracting a lot of investor attention.
                                                                       due to low investment base in such areas.
                 Caution should however be exercised due to the
                 complexities typically involved in land investments.


Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
                                                                                                                                                17
Why Karvy Private Wealth?


                                       Open Architecture – Widest array of products
   We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
     • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
     • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class
                                                       Intensive Research
 We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
 recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
 product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines
 truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

                                                   Honest, unbiased advise
Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or
broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
                                               The KPW 3-S Service promise:
 When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
 S Service Promise” :
         • Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience
         • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking
         • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products
                                            Pedigreed Senior Management Team

  A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
  private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
                                                                                                                                       18
Disclaimer


The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on
their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of
Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to
time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that
they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other
securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further
restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their
respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new
Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments

Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations.
Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:
702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .
(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034)

SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236,
NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.:
INP000001512”                                                                                                                                 19
Contact Us



                                  Bangalore                080-26606126
                                  Chennai                  044-45925923
                                  Coimbatore               0422-4291018
                                  Delhi                    011-43533941
                                  Gurgaon                   0124-4780228
                                  Hyderabad                040-44507282
                                  Kochi                    0484-2321831

                                  Kolkata                  033-40515100
                                  Mumbai                   022-33055000
                                  Pune                      020-30116238

     Email: wealth@karvy.com              SMS: ‘HNI’ to 56767       Website: www.karvywealth.com


Corporate Office : 702, Hallmark Business Plaza, Off Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051   20

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Wise advice for investing in turbulent times

  • 1. ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter – MARCH 2013 1
  • 2. Contents Index Page No. Economic Update 4 Equity Outlook 8 Debt Outlook 12 Forex 14 Commodities 15 Real Estate 16 2
  • 3. From the Desk of the CIO… Dear Investors, The Union Budget 2014 presented in the Parliament on 28th have become very attractively priced as a result. We believe the February provoked different reactions from investors, common upside to risk ratio of these stocks at the prevailing prices is man and industry. While it disappointed investors – who were highly attractive. hoping for a path-breaking slew of reforms – it remained Global risk appetite saw some caution creep in through prudent in its outlays and fiscal deficit targets. Debt and equity February. The Italian election results made investors revisit their markets alike reacted with negative movement on the day of the scenarios of fresh trouble in Eurozone. The hung parliament and budget. Part of the reaction was driven by confusion in the fine the possibility of anti-austerity parties having a significant say in print related to the tax treaties. As the air cleared over that, the ruling coalition has investors starting to worry about the equity markets recovered to pre-budget levels. On the balance future of Euro again. The final word of Italian government is yet though, the effect of budget is unlikely to last beyond few days. to come. However, macroeconomic data from US has cheered Participants in both debt and equity markets are now starting to investors back into a sense of business as usual. The pending speculate about RBI’s move in the monetary policy negotiations in US over the sequestration may bring jitters back. announcement due this month. There are those that believe the However, most investors have grown habituated to the political fiscal prudence that marked the budget is likely to give RBI brinkmanship in US and Eurozone alike and have increasingly enough comfort to embark on aggressive monetary policy started to express an almost dangerous faith in things finally easing. Others maintain that the fiscal deficit numbers for FY14 working themselves out. are hard to achieve and RBI knows it just as well, thus keeping On the equities front, the tail (improbable but highly damaging) the earlier trade off of growth and inflation almost unchanged, event risks remain quite real at current valuations. Either a and monetary policy easing slow. We belong to the former camp suitably structured exposure to equities with downside and believe that RBI will cut rates quickly if not very aggressively, protection or the ability to ignore the short term noise because in the next few months. of the turbulence is a good defense against these risks. Taking Equities markets saw renewed turbulence in the run up to and exposure to USD through currency futures, investing in dollar- after the budget. While broad markets experienced some denominated assets or taking explicit put option cover are some amount of volatility, mid-caps faired much worse. Several good of the specific guards against the improbable event risks. quality mid-cap stocks saw a major correction. Some of these 3 “Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 18”
  • 4. Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets 125 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225 As on 28th Change over Change over 120 115 Feb 2013 last month last year 110 105 100 BSE Sensex 18862 (5.2%) 6.2% 95 90 Equity S&P Nifty 5693 (5.7%) 5.7% 85 80 Markets S&P 500 1515 1.1% 10.9% 9.20 Nikkei 225 11559 3.8% 18.9% 8.70 8.20 10 yr Gsec 7.70 7.20 10-yr G-Sec Yield 7.87% 1 Bps (34 bps) Debt Markets Call Markets 7.89% (15 bps) (109 bps) Fixed Deposit* 8.75% 25 Bps (50 bps) 33000 32000 Gold 31000 30000 29000 28000 RICI Index 3692 (4.0%) (5.7%) 27000 26000 25000 Commodity Gold (`/10gm) 29517 (2.2%) 3.2%% Markets Crude Oil ($/bbl) 114.5 (0.9%) (6.3%) 59 `/$ 57 As on 25th Feb 2013 55 53 51 49 Forex Rupee/Dollar 53.8 (0.9%) (9.0%) 47 45 Markets Yen/Dollar 91.8 (0.9%) (12.4%) • Indicates SBI one-year FD 4 •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
  • 5. Economy Update - Global • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in January, rebounded in February. The Index now stands at 69.6 (1985=100), up from 58.4 in January US • Gross Domestic Product was revised at an annual rate of 0.1%in the Q4 CY 12 as compared to the 0.1% drop that was originally reported. However, the growth is much lower than last quarter’s annual rate of 3.1%. • The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remain unchanged in February 2013 at 47.9. The PMI held steady in February, but some consolation can be gained from the fact that January’s reading was the highest for 11 months, suggesting that the manufacturing downturn has eased so far this Europe year compared to the pace of decline seen throughout much of last year. • Euro-zone unemployment rate rose to a record to 11.9% in January 2013 from an upwardly revised 11.8% in December 2012. • Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 48.5 in February 2013, up from 47.7 in January 2013. However, by remaining below the 50.0 mark for an ninth successive month, the PMI again pointed to a deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions. Japan • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came at 4.2% in January 2013, down from upwardly revised 4.3% in December 2012. • China’s HSBC PMI posted a reading of 50.4 in February 2013 down from 52.3 in January 2013, signalling a marginal strengthening of operating conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Emerging • India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) posted 54.2 in February 2013, up from the reading of 53.2 economies in January 2013 signaling a further improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector. • India’s GDP growth for the quarter ending December 2012, slipped to 4.5%. The Indian economy had grown by 5.5% and 5.3% in first and second quarter of FY 12 respectively. 5
  • 6. Economy Outlook - Domestic 10.0% 8.0% • The country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 10-year 6.0% IIP low of 4.5% during the third quarter of the current financial 4.0% year, hurt by a slowdown in agriculture, mining and 2.0% manufacturing, pushing the projected annual growth rate down 0.0% further. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 6% -2.0% in the same period of last fiscal. -4.0% -6.0% • The economic growth in the first nine months of this fiscal Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 12 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 (April-December) stood at 5%. The manufacturing sector grew an annual 2.5% during the quarter while farm output rose just • India's industrial production unexpectedly shrank for a second 1.1% & mining fell by 1.4%. straight month in December, weighed down by weak investment • The Industrial sector slightly rebounded to 3.3% during the and consumer demand. The index of industrial production (IIP) fell quarter from 2.7% y-o-y in the June quarter and 2.6% in the 0.6% annually in December 2012. IIP for November has also been corresponding quarter of the previous year. India’s GDP growth revised downwards to negative 0.8% from 0.1% . pegged at 6.1%-6.7% for FY14; FY13 growth seen 5.0%. India's key eight core sector growth expands 3.9% in January following • Cumulative growth in FY13 in Apr- Dec 2012 stands at 0.7% as 2.5% growth in December. against a growth of 3.7% in corresponding period of the previous year. Mining registered -1.9% growth in April Dec 2012, as against - 8.0 7.8 7.7 2.6% during the same period last year. Manufacturing registered 7.5 near zero growth of 0.7% in April - Dec 2012, when compared with 6.9 GDP growth 7.0 4.0% in April - Dec 2011. 6.5 6.1 6.0 • The IIP number for December is at variance with the Purchasing 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which had risen to a five- 5.0 month high in December 2012. Perhaps this divergence can be 4.5 4.5 explained by the fact that while PMI survey data is from large 4.0 companies, the IIP numbers include smaller firms. FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3) 6
  • 7. Economic Outlook - Domestic Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs  India’s headline inflation declined sharply to 6.62% in January 21.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits from 7.18% in December, its slowest pace in three years. It is 19.0% 17.0% the fourth consecutive monthly decline. WPI declined as the 15.0% prices of fuel and manufactured items cooled moderately in 13.0% December, compared to those in the previous month. 11.0% Manufacturing goods inflation declined to 4.81% from 5.04% 9.0% while fuel prices rose 7.06% in January from those a year 7.0% earlier, compared with an annual rise of 9.38% in December. 5.0%  Food inflation, as a category, rose to 8.5% during the month, from 8.32% a year ago. Food articles have 14.3% share in the  As on Jan 2013 Bank credits grew by 16.1% on a Y-o-Y basis WPI basket. For the fuel and power category, inflation which is about 0.9% higher than the growth witnessed in moderated to 10.02% during the month from 15.48% in December 2012. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at November 2011. However, diesel inflation increased by 14.60% 13.2%, viz-a viz a growth of 11.1% in December 2012. last month.  On 29th January 2013, Reserve Bank of India cut the repo rate-  Consumer price inflation climbed to 10.79% in January, while the key policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% in its 3rd Quarter factory output for December shrank 0.6%, all indicating that the review. Cash reserve ratio (CRR) was also reduced by 25 basis ongoing slowdown could get worse. points to 4%. 8.0% Wholesale Price Index 7.8%  If correcting macroeconomic imbalances is good for growth, then 7.6% 7.4% fiscal discipline has at last begun to move in that direction. The 7.2% estimated fiscal deficit for 2012-13 was a tad lower than 7.0% 6.8% targeted at 5.2% of GDP, and is forecast to shrink to 4.8% of GDP 6.6% 6.4% in 2013-14. Meaningful fiscal influence upon the economy will 6.2% come from abating the threat of a ratings downgrade, lesser 6.0% demand boost and, hence, more room for monetary policy, all of which should support growth. 7 * End of period figures
  • 8. Equity Outlook Budget for FY14 came in on expected lines Union Budget for FY14 turned out to be on expected lines with focus on fiscal consolidation. Finance Minister met his promise of keeping fiscal deficit at 5.2% for FY13. The provisions for fuel and fertilizer subsidies look adequate this year and the fiscal deficit number would be closer to 5% for FY14 if price hikes continue for auto fuels. The allowances for various entitlement programmes have not been increased very meaningfully. Current account seems to be a bigger concern for the economy. We expect several measures to boost export in the new Exim policy expected by month end. Direct Taxes Code (DTC) bill and Insurance bill are going to be introduced in current Parliament session which will take the reform process forward. We expect RBI to take cognizance of these fiscal consolidation measures and continue with monetary easing in its next review on 19th March. The correction in the markets in last three weeks has opened up an attractive entry opportunity and we recommend investors to increase their exposure to equity. Key Highlights of Budget The fiscal deficit number has been penciled at 4.8% for FY14. The provisions for fuel and fertilizer subsidies look much better this year and the fiscal deficit number would be closer to 5% if price hikes continue for auto fuels. Direct Taxes Code (DTC) bill to be introduced in current Parliament session. No timelines have been given for implementation Goods and services tax (GST). On Revenue side, no change has been made in slabs and rate for personal income tax. Surcharge for domestic companies whose taxable income exceeds Rs 10 crore per year is increased from 5% to 10%. In the case of foreign companies, the surcharge will increase from 2% to 5%.The additional surcharges will be in force for only one year, that is for Financial Year 2013-14. One time voluntary compliance scheme for service tax defaulters to be introduced. And interest and penalties will be waived 8
  • 9. Equity Outlook Key Highlights • On the expenditure side, government has provided for Food subsidy of Rs.90,000 crs and is looking to implement Food security bill. The allowances for various other entitlement programmes have not been increased very meaningfully. • There was a lot of talk on boosting infrastructure & investment activity but no concrete provisions have come in. Marginal changes on investment allowance are unlikely to spur SME’s to start investing • Subsidies related to administering the Food Security Act have not been separately mentioned. An additional 10,000 crores has been earmarked in addition to the regular food subsidies of 80,000 crores. • GDP growth for FY14 is estimated at 6.1-6.7%. All tax estimates have been made keeping the mid point of this range as benchmark • In FY13, as against a target of Rs. 30,000 crs, the Government will raise about Rs25,000 crs from disinvestment. For FY14, Rs. 40,000 crs is to be raised through disinvestment. • Tax credit of Rs 2000 to be provided to every person having income of up to Rs 5 lakh; this will benefit 1.8 crore people. A person taking a loan for his first home from a bank or a HFC upto Rs 25,00,000 during 1.4.2013 to 31.3.2014 will be entitled to an additional deduction of interest of upto Rs 100,000. 9
  • 10. Sector View Sector Stance Remarks The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to BFSI Overweight increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better management quality and higher balance sheet discipline We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such FMCG Overweight as Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also Automobiles Overweight getting cheaper. We are more bullish on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power. We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the Healthcare Neutral developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. However, the government policy of putting price control on selected drugs might cause some short term pressure on stock prices. The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the E&C Neutral sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space. 10
  • 11. Sector View Sector Stance Remarks The regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have started Telecom Neutral to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected. Demand seems to be coming back in Europe. US volume growth has also remained resilient. With IT/ITES Neutral pricing already bottomed out, we have turned positive on the space selectively. With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s Energy Neutral will come down during the course of the year. We are turning more constructive on the space now. We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in Power Utilities Neutral earnings and decent return on capital. Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about Metals Underweight growth in China and developed parts of the world. Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a Cement Underweight strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted. 11
  • 12. Debt Outlook 8.2 Yield curve 9.00 10-yr G-sec yield 8.1 8.80 8.60 8.0 8.40 (%) (%) 7.9 8.20 7.8 8.00 7.7 7.80 7.6 7.60 7.5 7.40 7.4 7.20 12.6 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.1 7.9 8.7 9.5 10.2 11.0 11.8 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.7 • The 10 year benchmark G-Sec ended the month at 7.91% yield with a fall of 14 Bps during the month. • The G-Sec market started the last week of Feb on a positive note of OMO announcement, but lower GDP growth estimates. However, yields harden on high gross borrowing numbers. • Indian Government has provided Rs 2000 cr as premium towards interest payments for bond buybacks in FY14 and the buyback will be cash and fiscal deficit neutral. • On 29th January 2013, RBI cut the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by25bpsfrom 8% to 7.75% with immediate effect. RBI also cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks by 25 bps to 4% of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) effective the fortnight beginning February 9, 2013; as a result of this reduction, around Rs.18000 cr of primary liquidity will be injected into the banking system. • The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond increased to 104 Bps on 28TH February 2013 from 88 Bps(as on 31st January 2013). The 28th February 2013 AAA Rated bond yields rose by 12 bps to 8.91% as compared to the yields a month earlier at 8.79%. 12
  • 13. Debt Strategy Category Outlook Details With the second policy rate cut that happened in Jan2013, with a 25 Bps cut in Repo rate and CRR along with signals of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, but as there is influence of global factors in the market, a Short Tenure lot of uncertainty is coupled with it, hence, we would recommend to invest Debt in and hold on to current investments in short term debt Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9%– 9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities. Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity Credit in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive. Indian long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation owing to the expected monetary easing. With the second policy rate cut happening in Jan2013, with a 25 Bps cut in Repo and CRR along with signals of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, but along with this is a lot of uncertainty in the market Long Tenure and hence would recommend to hold on to the current investments in the Debt Longer term papers. These papers are suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term. 13
  • 14. Forex Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data 3.5% 3.3% 30 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) 0 3.0% 20 -5000 10 -10000 2.5% 2.2% 0 -15000 2.0% -10 -20000 1.5% -20 -25000 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% Exports during Jan, 2013 were valued at US $ 25.58 bn which was -0.5% 0.82% higher than the level of US $ 25.38 bn during Jan, 2012. Imports during Jan, 2013 were valued at US $ 45.58 Bn -1.0% -0.9% representing a negative growth of 6.12% over the level of -1.5% imports valued at US $ 42.95 Bn in Jan 2012 translating into a USD GBP EURO YEN trade deficit of $19.96 Bn. 140000 Capital Account Balance • INR has appreciated against three major currencies other than USD. INR depreciated by 0.9% against the US Dollar. Rupee has 90000 appreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year by 1.87% 40000 • Recovery in US economy increased risk appetite among global investors, sending funds flowing into riskier assets, including those -10000 FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2) in emerging markets. One more Factor for INR to strengthen is that it did not react adversely to fiscal deficit for April-December • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised 2012 being reported at Rs 407,000 crore, or 78.8% of the budgeted from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised fiscal deficit of Rs 991,000 crore for fiscal 2010-13. downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores. • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more • Volatility as last year is expected to continue as the rupee would investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs track cues from the domestic markets as well as global shores. would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener. 14
  • 15. Commodities Having risen consecutively for eleven years, dollar-gold price performance is one of the best among other asset classes, generating an annualized 33000 return of 18%. The global financial system was flood with central banks Gold liquidity that had risen risk asset in the year 2012 and this is expected to 32000 further lift risk asset prices in the year 2013. Given this backdrop, one 31000 could expect a decent profit booking on the precious metal counter as the Precious money flow shall now be diverted to equities that was under owned since 30000 2008. We also expect liquidity to dry up significantly around end of 1QCY Metals following the ECB’s LTROs amid a sharp pull back in dollar index -following 29000 the Fed’s signal to wind down the stimulus program this year - could 28000 rattle global commodity prices. The controlled measures by the central bankers to curb gold demand with a prime objective being to shore up 27000 confidence in the monetary and banking system, bullion in all probability 26000 will not be a free market. As bullion derivatives market is far larger than the size of physical metal, a small trigger is sufficient enough to create a 25000 big impact. Domestically, it now seems that gold has formed an intermediate top and one could see consider price pull back going ahead in the year 2013. 135 125 The expectation of steadier global growth is a good news for the Crude 115 oil counter given the excess liquidity available. There is no evidence of oil shortage and given the ample supply coupled with 105 the decent growth prospects, we expect oil to remain firmer. Oil & Gas While China is expected to stage a good performance this year is 95 positive for the oil market, the signal coming from the Fed on 85 unwinding of the stimulus program this year, keep a lid on the 75 prices. As the risk of oil spike has subsided considerably, the upside on this counter looks capped. 15
  • 16. Real Estate Outlook Asset Classes Tier I Tier II Prices continued to be at peak levels in most markets with sales being slow, more so in the premium segment. Going forward, the expectation of a general recovery of the economy is likely to improve the sentiment in the real estate sector. Residential asset class shall continue to be the prime focus. If the RBI does implement key policy rates cuts, cheaper home loans will significantly improve the liquidity in the market. Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend towards A lot of new supply is expected to hit the market specially in NCR and Mumbai nuclear families, increasing disposable income, rising regions in the near future as developers have been waiting for some time for aspiration to own quality products and the growth in Residential the liquidity situation to improve. In December, DLF launched a 13 acre infrastructure facilities in these cities. Price appreciation is project, SkyCourt in Gurgaon which was completely sold off. more concentrated to specific micro-markets in these cities. Cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, On an average, projects with Rs. 4,000 – 5,000 per sq. ft. entry pricing with Nagpur, Patna and Cochin are expected to perform well. good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and Mumbai suburbs are expected to see good percentage returns. The recent increase of 5-30% in the Ready Reckoner values, used to calculate the stamp duty cost, from January 1 by the Maharashtra Government may act as the slight dampener for the Mumbai market. Commercial asset class continues to be under pressure as most markets continue to have an over-supply . Lease transactions are still slow as demand has not yet revived. On an average, lease rentals have also not seen much increase. Lower unsold inventory and smaller unit sizes have led to Commercial/IT stable lease rentals in Tier II cities. However, specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger lock-in periods may present good investment opportunities over a long-term horizon. 16
  • 17. Real Estate Outlook Asset Classes Tier I Tier II Government has recently approved 51% foreign ownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brand retail. Entry of foreign retailers in the Indian markets may Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared infuse new enthusiasm in the sector and improve the to mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these demand for retail space. rentals gets reported, these are expected to have been stagnant. Retail However, it will take a gestation period of at least an year for this to translate into actaul offtake of space. In the The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n the immediate near term, unsold invesntory levels continue Tier-2 cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this to be high levels and lease rentals stagnant. phenomenon can be known with more certainty once the effect of FDI is more visible in Tier I cities. Long term investments in retail space along pre- eastblished hubs may be attractive. As Tier I cities continue to grow, new proposed / implemented infrastructure developments at the Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established outskirts of these cities are making adjoining lands Land growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation expensive and attracting a lot of investor attention. due to low investment base in such areas. Caution should however be exercised due to the complexities typically involved in land investments. Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter 17
  • 18. Why Karvy Private Wealth? Open Architecture – Widest array of products We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level : • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class Intensive Research We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio Honest, unbiased advise Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like all banks do. The KPW 3-S Service promise: When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3- S Service Promise” : • Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products Pedigreed Senior Management Team A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations. 18
  • 19. Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512” 19
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