ปริวรรตทัศน์ กุมภาพันธ์

1. ปริวรรตทัศน Capital Markets Business Division
http://www.KASIKORNBANK.com
กุมภาพันธ 2555 / ป‚ที่ 16 ฉบับที่ 182
ºÒ§·Õ¤ÇÒÁ«×èÍÊÑμÍÒ¨¨Ð໚¹¹âºÒ·Õè´Õ·ÕèÊØ´?
โดย ฝ†ายงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
กอบสิทธิ์ ศิลปชัย ผูŒบริหารงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
นลิน ฉัตรโชติธรรม ผูŒชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
อมรเทพ จาวะลา ผูŒชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
พุฒิกุล อัครชลานนท ผูŒชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
¤ÇÒÁ«×èÍÊÑμÊبÃÔμ໚¹¹âºÒ·Õè´Õ·ÕèÊØ´ áμ‹¡ç໚¹¹âºÒ·ÕèäÁ‹¤‹Í¨Ð໚¹·Õè รูปที่ 1. การประมาณการทงางเศรษฐกิจของ FOMC ในเดือนมกราคม 2555
¹ÔÂÁã¹»ÃÐà·Èä·Â Í‹ҧäá紹ÒÂູ àºÍϹ¹à¡Œ ´ÙàËÁ×͹¨ÐÁÕ¤ÇÒÁàª×Íã¹àÃ×ͧ
Õ Ñ è è Variable Central tendency Range
´Ñ§¡Å‹ÒÇ «Öè§äÁ‹à¤ÂÁÕ¨ÒÃÖ¡ã¹»ÃÐÇÑμÔÈÒÊμÏÁÒ¡‹Í¹Ç‹Ò¨ÐÁÕ»Ãиҹ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ Unit: % 2012 2013 2014 Longer run 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
ÊËÃÑ°Ï ¤¹ä˹·Õè´Ù¨ÐÁÕ¤ÇÒÁâ»Ã‹§ãÊ¢¹Ò´¹Õé Change in real GDP 2.2 to 2.7 2.8 to 3.2 3.3 to 4.0 2.3 to 2.6 2.1 to 3.0 2.4 to 3.8 2.8 to 4.3 2.2 to 3.0
ã¹áºº·´Êͺ¢Í§ SAT (¡Ò÷´Êͺ¤ÇÒÁ¶¹Ñ´·Ò§¡ÒÃàÃÕ¹) ¤íÒ·ÕÁ¤ÇÒÁ November projection 2.5 to 2.9 3.0 to 3.5 3.0 to 3.9 2.4 to 2.7 2.3 to 3.5 2.7 to 4.0 2.7 to 4.5 2.2 to 3.0
è Õ
ËÁÒÂμç¡Ñ¹¢ŒÒÁ¡Ñº “opaque” (¢Ø‹¹, ·Öº) ¡ç¤×Í “transparent” (â»Ã‹§ãÊ) «Öè§ Unemployment rate 8.2 to 8.5 7.4 to 8.1 6.7 to 7.6 5.2 to 6.0 7.8 to 8.6 7.0 to 8.2 6.3 to 7.7 5.0 to 6.0
ÊÒÁÒö¹íÒÁÒà»ÃÕºà»ÃÂä´Œ¡º»Ãиҹ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï ¤¹»˜¨¨Øº¹ ¹ÒÂູ November projection 8.5 to 8.7 7.8 to 8.2 6.8 to 7.7 5.2 to 6.0 8.1 to 8.9 7.5 to 8.4 6.5 to 8.0 5.0 to 6.0
Ñ Ñ
àºÍϹѹࡌ à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡´ÙÁÕ¤ÇÒÁâ»Ã‹§ãÊ ã¹¢³Ð·Õè Í´Õμ»Ãиҹ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÍÕ¡ PCE inflation 1.4 to 1.8 1.4 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 2.0 1.3 to 2.5 1.4 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.1 2.0
·‹Ò¹Ë¹Ö§¤×Í ¹ÒÂÍÅѹ ¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ ´Ù¨ÐàËÁÒСѺ¤íÒÇ‹Ò “¤ÅØÁà¤Ã×Í” à¹×ͧ¨Ò¡¼Ù·èÕ November projection 1.4 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.8 1.4 to 2.5 1.5 to 2.4 1.5 to 2.0
è è Œ
μÔ´μÒÁ¡ÒôíÒà¹Ô¹§Ò¹¢Í§¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï ã¹ª‹Ç§¢Í§¹ÒÂÍÅѹ ¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ Core PCE inflation 1.5 to 1.8 1.5 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 - 1.3 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 -
¨ÐμŒÍ§ÁÕ¤ÇÒÁàªÕÂǪÒÞã¹´ŒÒ¹ÀÒÉÒáÅÐàÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ ËÃ×ÍÁÕ¤ÇÒÁ໚¹¹Ñ¡ÀÒÉÒÈÒÊμÏ November projection 1.5 to 2.0 1.4 to 1.9 1.5 to 2.0 - 1.3 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.2 -
è
áÅйѡàÈÃÉ°ÈÒÊμÏÍÂً㹤¹à´ÕÂǡѹ ÍÐää×ͤÇÒÁËÁÒ¢ͧ “irrational Source: US Federal Reserve
exuberance”? ËÁÒ¶֧¡ÒôíÒà¹Ô¹¹âºÒ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹ã¹Åѡɳм‹Í¹¤ÅÒ´͡àºÕÂμèÒ é í
(dovish) ËÃ×͹âºÒ·ҧ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹·ÕÁ´Í¡àºÕÂÍÂÙã¹ÃдѺÊÙ§ (hawkish) ¼Ù·ÍÂÙã¹
è Õ é ‹ Œ èÕ ‹ ÁÕ»ÃÐ⤷ÕèÇ‹Ò “㹪ÕÇÔμÁÕÊÔ觷Õèṋ¹Í¹ÍÂÙ‹ 2 àÃ×èͧ¤×Í ¤ÇÒÁμÒ áÅÐÀÒÉÕ”
ÍØμÊÒË¡ÃÃÁ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹¡‹Í¹ª‹Ç§ÇÔ¡Äμ´Í·¤ÍÁ¹‹Ò¨Ð·ÃÒºà¡ÕÂǡѺàÃ×ͧ¢Í§¹ÒÂÍÅѹ «Ö§ ¹ÒÂູ àºÍϹ¹à¡ŒÍÒ¨μŒÍ§¡ÒÃà¾ÔÁ¤ÇÒÁṋ¹Í¹·Õè 3 «Ö§¡ç¤Í ÍÑμÃÒ´Í¡àºÕÂ
è è è Ñ è è × é
¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ´Õ ¹âºÒ·ÕèμèíÒ¶Ö§»‚ 2557 «Ö觡ÒÃ㪌´Í¡àºÕé¹âºÒ·ÕèμèíÒÍҨ෋ҡѺNjҹíÒ仼١ÍÂÙ‹
á¹Ç⹌Á¢Í§¹ÒÂÍÅѹ ¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ ·Õ¨ÐÂ×¹ÍÂÙμ碌ÒÁ¡Ñº¤ÇÒÁâ»Ã‹§ãÊÍÒ¨¨Ð ¡ÑºÍÐäúҧÍ‹ҧËÃ×ÍäÁ‹? ¤‹Òà§Ô¹ºÒ·ä´Œ¶Ù¡ÅÍÂμÑÇà¹×èͧ¨Ò¡¼Ù¡¡Ñºà§Ô¹´ÍÅÅÒÏ
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ÁÒ¨Ò¡¤ÇÒÁàª×èÍ·Ò§·ÄɮշҧàÈÃÉ°ÈÒÊμÏ·Õè¡íÒ˹´â´Â¹ÒÂâÃàºÔÏμ ÅÙ¤ÑÊ ÊËÃÑ°Ï? ÂØâûμŒÍ§»ÃÐʺ»˜ÞËÒàÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡¼Ù¡ÍÂÙ‹¡ÑºÃкº¤‹Òà§Ô¹ ?
਌ҢͧÃÒ§ÇÑÅâ¹àºÅ»‚ 2538 ¹ÒÂâÃàºÔÃμ ÅÙ¤Êä´ŒÊÌҧ·ÄÉ®Õà¡ÕÂǡѺ “¤ÇÒÁ¤Ò´
 Ñ è ¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡·ÕèäÁ‹à»š¹¸ÃÃÁ (Adverse selection) ÂѧäÁ‹ãª‹»˜ÞËÒ·Õ蹋ҡѧÇÅ
ËÇѧÍ‹ҧ໚¹àËμØ໚¹¼Å (rational expectation)” «Öè§ã¹ÁØÁ¹Ö§¢Í§ “¤ÇÒÁ¤Ò´ ã¹¢³Ð¹Õé á싨Ð໚¹»˜ÞËÒã¹Í¹Ò¤μ “Adverse selection” ËÁÒ¤ÇÒÁÇ‹Ò
ËÇѧÍ‹ҧ໚¹àËμØ໚¹¼Å” ¡ç¤×ͤÇÒÁÁÕ»ÃÐÊÔ·¸Ô¼Å¢Í§¡ÒôíÒà¹Ô¹¹âºÒ·ҧ Í‹ҧäÃ? “adverse” ËÁÒ¶֧ äÁ‹´,Õ äÁ‹¾§»ÃÐʧ¤ áÅÐ “selection” ËÁÒ¶֧ Ö
àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ ÇÔ¡Ô¾Õà´ÕÂ䴌͌ҧ¶Ö§¢ŒÍ¤ÇÒÁ´Ñ§μ‹Í仹Õé (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ ¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡ «Öè§àÁ×èÍàÍÒÁÒÃÇÁ¡Ñ¹¡ç¨ÐËÁÒ¶֧¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡·ÕèäÁ‹¾Ö§»ÃÐʧ¤à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡
Rational_expectations): ¼ÙŒ«×éÍáÅмٌ¢ÒÂÁÕ¢ŒÍÁÙÅ·Õèáμ¡μ‹Ò§äÁ‹à·‹Òà·ÕÂÁ¡Ñ¹ ÍÑμÃҢͧà§Ô¹·Õèà¾ÔèÁ¢Öé¹ ¡Å‹ÒǤ×Í
ÍÑμÃÒ´Í¡àºÕéÂÃÐÂÐÊÑé¹ (Fed fund rate) ·ÕèÍÂÙ‹ã¡ÅŒÈٹ Ê‹§¼ÅãËŒÍÑμÃÒ¤Ô´Å´
If the Federal Reserve attempts to lower unemployment through (discount rate) 㹡ÒÃμÕ¤ÒÊÔ¹·ÃѾμÒ§ æ Ŵŧ仴ŒÇ «Ö§·íÒãËŒÁŤ‹ÒÊÔ¹·ÃѾ
‹ ‹ è Ù
expansionary monetary policy economic agents will anticipate the ã¹»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹à¾ÔèÁ¢Öé¹ â´Â¡ÒÃŧ·Ø¹ã¹âšʋǹãËÞ‹Âѧ¼Ù¡μÔ´ÍÂÙ‹¡Ñº “ÁÙŤ‹Ò»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹
effects of the change of policy and raise their expectations of future ÊØ·¸Ô (net present value)” «Ö觡ç¤×ÍÇÔ¸Õ¡ÒûÃѺ¤‹Ò¢Í§à§Ô¹·Õèä´Œã¹Í¹Ò¤μãˌ໚¹
inflation accordingly. This in turn will counteract the expansionary effect ¤‹Ò»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹â´Â㪌ÍÑμÃÒ¼Åμͺ᷹·ÕèμŒÍ§¡Òà (required rate of return) ËÃ×Í
of the increased money supply. All that the government can do is ÍÑμÃÒ¤Ô´Å´ (discount rate, r) ÁÒ¤Ô´ μÃҺ㴷Õè¡ÃÐáÊà§Ô¹Ê´ (CF) ໚¹ºÇ¡
raise the inflation rate, not employment. à¡×ͺ·Ø¡Í‹ҧ¡ç¨Ð¤ØŒÁ¤‹Ò·Õè¨Ðŧ·Ø¹ «Öè§Ê‹Ç¹ÁÒ¡¡çÍÒ¨¨Ð¨ºÅ§´ŒÇ¡ÒÃà¡ç§¡íÒäÃã¹
ÊÔ¹·ÃѾ·ÕèÍÒ¨äÁ‹¨íÒ໚¹μŒÍ§ÁÕ»ÃÐÊÔ·¸Ô¼Å
Êѹ æ §‹ÒÂ æ ¡ç¤Í¤ÇÒÁ¤Ò´ËÇѧÍ‹ҧ໚¹àËμØ໚¹¼ÅÃкØÇÒà¾×ÍãËŒ¹âºÒÂ
é × ‹ è
·Ò§àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ÁÕ»ÃÐÊÔ·¸ÔÀÒ¾μÑÇá·¹·Ò§àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨¨íÒ໚¹μŒÍ§äÁ‹¤Ò´¤Ô´¶Ö§¹âºÒ n
NPV = Σ CFi
¹Ñ¹ æ ÁÒ¡‹Í¹ 㹪‹Ç§Ê§¤ÃÒÁâÅ¡¤Ãѧ·ÕÊͧ ¡ÒÃμ‹ÍÊ٢ͧÎÔμàÅÍÏ·ÁμÍ¡ÒÃÃØ¡ÃÒ¹
é é è ‹ èÕ Õ ‹ i=1 r
¢Í§½ÃÑè§àÈÊÁÕ»ÃÐÊÔ·¸ÔÀÒ¾ÁÒ¡ â´Â½ÃÑè§àÈʤԴNjҡͧ¡íÒÅѧμÔ´ÍÒÇظ¢Í§àÂÍÃÁ¹Õ
¨ÐºØ¡½ÃÑè§àÈʼ‹Ò¹·Ò§àºÅàÂÕÂÁ áμ‹ã¹¤ÇÒÁ໚¹¨ÃÔ§áŌǡͧ¡íÒÅѧ¢Í§àÂÍÃÁѹ䴌 ÃÙ»·Õè 2 áÊ´§¤ÇÒÁÊÑÁ¾Ñ¹¸ÃÐËÇ‹Ò§»ÃÔÁÒ³à§Ô¹´ÍÅÅÒÏÊËÃÑ°Ï ã¹ÃÙ»¢Í§ M1
ºØ¡¼‹Ò¹»†Ò Ardennes ·íÒãËŒ½ÃѧàÈʾ‹ÒÂᾌÀÒÂã¹àÇÅÒäÁ‹¶§Êͧà´×͹ ÊíÒËÃѺÍÒÇظ (M1 ¤×Í »ÃÔÁÒ³à§Ô¹Í‹ҧ᤺) áÅÐÊÔ¹·ÃѾʷ¸Ô¢Í§ Investment Company
è Ö Ø
ã¹»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹ ˹Öè§ã¹à¤Ã×èͧºÔ¹·ËÒ÷Õèᾧ·ÕèÊØ´¤×Í B-2 Spirit «Öè§ÃÒ¤Ò»ÃÐÁÒ³ Institute (ICI) Global Bonds ÃÙ»·Õè 3 áÊ´§¤ÇÒÁÊÑÁ¾Ñ¹¸ÃÐËÇ‹Ò§ÁÙŤ‹Ò·ÃѾ
˹Ö觾ѹŌҹ´ÍÅÅÒÏÊËÃÑ°Ï «Öè§ÃÒ¤ÒÊÙ§¹Õé¡çà¾ÃÒÐÇ‹ÒÁѹÁÕ¤ÇÒÁÊÒÁÒö㹡Òà ÊÔ¹ÊØ·¸Ô¢Í§ ICI EM Equity áÅдѪ¹ÕμÅÒ´Ëعä·Â (SET Index) »ÃÐà´ç¹¡ç¤Í Œ ×
ÊÌҧ¤ÇÒÁá»Å¡ã¨ãˌᡋ»ÃÐà·È»Ã»˜¡É´ŒÇÂÍÒÇظ¹ÔÇà¤ÅÕÂÏ μÃҺ㴷ո¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï Âѧ¤§¾ÔÁ¾à§Ô¹ÍÍ¡ÁÒ ¡ÒÃŧ·Ø¹¡ç¨Ð¡ÃШÒÂÍÍ¡
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¹ÒÂູ àºÍϹ¹à¡Œ ä´Œ»Í§¡Ñ¹¡ÒÃà¡Ô´ÇÔ¡Äμ¡Ò÷ҧàÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨¤Ãѧ·ÕÊͧâ´Â ä»ã¹·Ø¡·ÔÈ·Ò§ áμ‹äÁ‹¨íÒ໚¹·Õè¨ÐμŒÍ§¡ÃШÒÂ件֧¡ÒèŒÒ§§Ò¹
Ñ ‡ é è
ä´Œ´Òà¹Ô¹¹âºÒ·Õáμ¡μ‹Ò§¨Ò¡à´ÔÁËÅѧ¨Ò¡¡ÒÃÅ‹ÁÊÅÒ¢ͧ Lehman Brothers
í è
â´Â䴌ແ´à¼ÂÁÒμáÒÃμ‹Ò§æ ãËŒÊÒ¸Òóª¹ÃѺ·ÃÒº â´Â㹡ÒûÃЪØÁ FOMC
·Õ輋ҹÁÒ ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï ä´Œà»´à¼ÂNjҨФ§ÍÑμÃÒ´Í¡àºÕé¹âºÒÂã¹ÃдѺ
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1

2. ปริวรรตทัศน / กุมภาพันธ 2555
รูปที่ 2. ความสัมพันธระหวางปริมาณเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในรูปของ M1 และ รูปที่ 6. แขงขันกันทํา QE?
สินทรัพยสุทธิของ ICI Global Bonds ตั้งแตป 2543
ICI global bonds, net assets, USD bn
3,000
200
180 2,500
160 2
y = 0.0001x - 0.2413x + 121.68
140 2 2,000
R = 0.9338
120
100 1,500
80
60 1,000
40
20 500
0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400
USD M1 money supply, bn Fed's balance sheet, USD bn ECB balance sheet, EUR bn
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
รูปที่ 3. ความสัมพันธระหวางมูลคาทรัพยสินสุทธิของ ICI EM Equity และดัชนี รูปที่ 7. สวนตางระหวางยูโร LIBOR - OIS
ตลาดหุนไทย (SET Index)
200
300 1200 180
250 1000 160
140
200 800 120
100
150 600
80
100 400 60
40
50 200
20
- 0 0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
ICI EM Equity net assets, USD bn, left SET index, right Euro LIBOR-OIS (Overnight Index Swap) spread, bps
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
á¼¹ÀÒ¾μ‹Í仹Õ໚¹ÊÔ§·ÕÊÒÁÒöÂ×¹Âѹ䴌 μѧáμ‹»‚ 2524 ¨¹¶Ö§¡ÒÃÅ‹ÁÊÅÒÂ
ä é è è ä é QE ¢Í§ Fed äÁ‹ãª‹Ê§à´ÕÂÇã¹¢³Ð¹Õà¹×ͧ¨Ò¡¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÂØâû (ECB) ÁÕ
èÔ é è
¢Í§ Lehman Brothers ã¹Çѹ·Õè 15 ¡Ñ¹ÂÒ¹ 2551 (Çѹ·Õèá‹·èÊØ´ÊíÒËÃѺÀÒ¤
Õ ¤ÇÒÁ¾ÂÒÂÒÁà¾×Í»‡Í§¡Ñ¹äÁ‹ãˌǡÄμÔ˹աÃÕ«á¾Ã‹ä»Âѧ»ÃÐà·ÈÍ×¹ ´ŒÇ¡Ò÷íÒ QE
è Ô é è
¡ÒÃà§Ô¹àÅ·Õà´ÕÂÇ) ¡ÒþÔÁ¾à§Ô¹·Õà¾ÔÁ¢Ö¹¹íÒä»ÊÙ¡ÒèŒÒ§§Ò¹·Õà¾ÔÁ¢Ö¹´ŒÇ â´Â·Ø¡æ
è è é ‹ è è é à¾×ÍÅ´¤ÇÒÁÌ͹áç¢Í§μÅÒ´à§Ô¹ ÃÙ»·Õè 7 ໚¹μÑǺ‹§ªÕ¤ÇÒÁá¢ç§á¡Ã‹§¢Í§μÅÒ´
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1 ¾Ñ¹ÅŒÒ¹´ÍÅÅÒÏÊËÃÑ°Ï ·Õ¾Á¾ÍÍ¡ÁҨйíÒä»ÊÙ¡ÒèŒÒ§§Ò¹ 4.9 ËÁ×¹μíÒá˹‹§
è Ô ‹ è ¹Ñ¹¤×Íʋǹμ‹Ò§ÃÐËÇ‹Ò§ ÂÙâà LIBOR áÅÐ OIS «Ö§ LIBOR ¤×ÍÍÑμÃÒ¤‹ÒºÃÔ¡Ò÷Õè
è è
áμ‹âª¤ÃŒÒÂä´Œ»ÃÒ¡¯ã¹ÃÙ»·Õè 5 ·Õèä´ŒáÊ´§¶Ö§Ê¶Ò¹¡Ò󏡋͹áÅÐËÅѧ¡ÒÃÅ‹Á ¸¹Ò¤ÒáíÒ˹´μ‹ÍÍÕ¡¸¹Ò¤ÒÃ˹֧ÊíÒËÃѺà§Ô¹·Ø¹ÃÐÂÐÊѹ ʋǹ OIS ໚¹μÑÇá»Ã
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ÊÅÒ¢ͧ Lehman Brothers ·ÕèªÕéÇÑ´μŒ¹·Ø¹¢Í§¡ÒûŋÍÂÊÔ¹àª×èÍ·ÕèäÁ‹ÁÕ¤ÇÒÁàÊÕè§ ´Ñ§¹Ñé¹àÁ×èÍʋǹμ‹Ò§à¾ÔèÁ¢Öé¹
¹Ñ¹áÊ´§Ç‹Ò¸¹Ò¤ÒÃäÁ‹ÍÂÒ¡»Å‹Í¡Ùãˌ͡¸¹Ò¤ÒÃ˹֧㹪‹Ç§ÇÔ¡ÄμÔàÅˏáÁ¹ ʋǹμ‹Ò§
è Œ Õ è
รูปที่ 4. แผนภาพระหวางปริมาณเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในรูปของ M1 และการจาง ¹Õ¾§ÊÙ§¢Ö¹¶Ö§à¡×ͺ 200bps áμ‹ LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operations)
é ‹Ø é
งานนอกภาคการเกษตร จนถึงการลมสลายของ Lehman Brothers ¢Í§ ECB ËÃ×Í·ÕèÃÙŒ¨Ñ¡¡Ñ¹ã¹¹ÒÁ QE ä´Œ·íÒãˌʋǹμ‹Ò§¹Õé䴌Ŵŧ
non-farm payrolls, k
160,000
150,000
140,000
รูปที่ 8. คาเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ แบบถวงนําหนักดวยการคา
130,000
83
120,000
81
110,000
y = 48.985x + 67749 79
100,000 2
R = 0.9057 77
90,000
75
80,000
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 73
USD M1, bn 71
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank 69
67
1-10 4-10 7-10 10-10 1-11 4-11 7-11 10-11 1-12
รูปที่ 5. แผนภาพระหวางปริมาณเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในรูปของ M1 และการจาง US trade weighted dollar
งานนอกภาคการเกษตร กอนและหลังการลมสลายของ Lehman Brothers Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
non-farm payrolls, k
170,000
160,000
150,000
รูปที่ 9. DXY และ GDP ของสหรัฐฯ
140,000
130,000 US chain weighted real GDP, US bn
120,000 14000
110,000 y = 35.034x + 80035 13500
2 80.178, 13422.4
100,000 R = 0.7574 y = -50.16x + 16961
13000 2
90,000 R = 0.8347
80,000 12500
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 12000
USD M1, bn
11500
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
11000
10500
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DXY, US dollar index
130
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ดัชนีเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในเดือนมกราคม 2555
Dollar Index
82.0
. .
81.0 . .
2014
80.0 13 . .
9
79.0
78.0
1-Dec 7-Dec 13-Dec 19-Dec 25-Dec 31-Dec 6-Jan 12-Jan 18-Jan 24-Jan 30-Jan
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