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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan 28, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                Jan 27           Change         US Market                                 Jan 27             Change
SET Index                                        986.71              +8.64       Dow Jones                              11,989.83                   +4.39
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                      29,093.23           -5,500.88       Nasdaq                                  2,755.28                 +15.78
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                 +1,266.93            +870.46        S&P 500                                 1,299.54                   +2.91
Thai Bond Market                                 Jan 27           Change         US 10 yr T-note (%)                          3.39                   -3 bp
Total Return Index                               200.40              +0.03       US 2yr T-note (%)                            0.59                   -4 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                    NYMEX crude ($/b)                          85.64                    -1.69
Yield Curve               1m        3m        6m         1yr           2yr         3yr       5yr         7yr       10yr       12yr        14yr        18yr
Jan 27 (%)               2.03      2.09      2.27       2.54          2.95        3.20      3.39        3.63       3.84       4.02        4.13        4.22
Change (bp)                 -1       -1          -2         0           -2          -2         -3         -1          0         -2          -1          -1
Interbank Rates           Jan 28       Jan 26              BIBOR             1w          1m           2m         3m        6m           9m         1yr
Overnight (%)               2.25    2.050-2.210            Jan 27         2.26125      2.28141 2.34500 2.39875 2.49750 2.55000 2.65719
Repurchase Rates           1-day          7-day            14-day              1m             SIBOR           1m               3m               6m
Jan 27                    2.25000        2.25000               -                -             Jan 27        0.27060         0.30900           0.46550
THBFIX (Ref.)        1m          2m        3m          6m           9m         1yr            LIBOR           1m               3m               6m
Jan 27             1.13471     1.09452 1.25273 1.52567 1.77613               1.99959          Jan 27        0.26000         0.30438           0.45469
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                   1yr              2yr               3yr              4yr              5yr              7yr              10yr
Jan 28        Bid/Ask                 1.86/1.89        2.54/2.57         3.05/3.08       3.35/3.39         3.58/3.62       3.89/3.93         4.18/4.22
KBank Counter Rates                                 Buying                                Selling                   Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                         Sight Bill                 T/T                         T/T                              Export/Import
USD                                     30.74                  30.84                       31.09                                  0.15/2.16
EUR                                    42.0500                42.1875                     42.7163                                -2.86/0.63
GBP                                    48.7325                48.8913                     49.4763                                -1.14/1.56
JPY                                    0.3699                 0.3710                       0.3779                                -0.49/3.72
KBank Technical Analysis                    Jan 28            Jan 27           Support        Resistance          Trend                 Strategy
THB (Onshore)                                30.96             30.90             30.90            31.05          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
JPY                                          82.71             82.86             82.30            82.60          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
EUR/USD                                     1.3702            1.3726            1.3680           1.3790          Sideway        Buy EUR near support



                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    Japan’s long-term credit rating was cut by S&P for the first time since 2002 from AA to AA-. The
                        rating agency said that the country face problems with effective debt reduction over the
                        medium-to-long run while failure to revive the economy is threatening a mounting public debt.
                   •    Malaysia central bank policy kept policy rate on hold at 2.75% and said prices are likely to climb
                        moderately in the coming months while growth outlook remained positive
                   •    U.S. data mixed - pending home sales rose 2% in Dec, higher-than-expected while jobess claims
                        soared 51,000 to 454,000 claims and durable goods fell 2.5% (worse than expected)


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD continued to climb higher, closing at 1.373 yesterday, its highest since early
                        November 2010. France’s President said that both France and Germany would stand by the
                        euro USD/JPY rose 0.8% to close at 82.87 after S&P downgraded Japan’s rating
                    •   USD/THB closed little changed yesterday but rebounded strongly this morning on weak
                        sentiment for the baht


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    The United States and Japan received sharp warnings from the IMF and ratings agencies on
                        Thursday that they must tackle their huge budget deficits to avoid investors dumping their
                        bonds, which would create a sovereign debt crisis and push up their borrowing costs
                    Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 28, 2011

                  Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                                  US Treasuries and Thai rates
    Japan’s long-term credit rating was cut by S&P for the                                                                       The difference between U.S. 2- and 30-year yields was
    first time since 2002 from AA to AA- (3 notches below the                                                                    near the widest on record on speculation a report today will
    highest possible rating). The rating agency said that the                                                                    show economic growth is quickening, spurring investors to
    country face problems with effective debt reduction over                                                                     demand greater compensation for potential inflation.
    the medium-to-long run while failure to revive the economy                                                                   Moody’s Investors Service said its time frame for possibly
    is threatening a mounting public debt. The yen weakened                                                                      placing a negative outlook on its Aaa rating for U.S.
    to last week’s low after the news.                                                                                           Treasury bonds is shortening as the country’s deficit
                                                                                                                                 widens. The cost to protect Treasuries from losses using
    PM Naoto Kan is proposing sales tax (at 5% now) increase                                                                     credit-default swaps rose to the most in almost a year.
    to help reduce fiscal burden while the government is
    pushing ahead with a record budget of about $1.0 trillion                                                                     S&P Index                                                                                              (bp)
    and would continue to run a budget deficit for the fiscal                                                                     1350                                                                                                    300
    year starting in April.                                                                                                       1300                                                                                                   280
                                                                                                                                  1250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         260
    Despite all the debt concerns, Japan's exports grew for the                                                                   1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         240
    second month in a row in December, thanks in part to                                                                          1150
    strong demand from China, figures show.                                                                                                                                                                                              220
                                                                                                                                  1100
                                                                                                                                  1050                                                                                                   200
    Malaysia central bank policy kept policy rate on hold at                                                                      1000                                                                                                   180
    2.75% and said prices are likely to climb moderately in the                                                                      Mar-10            May-10            Jul-10          Sep-10           Nov-10           Jan-11
    coming months, driven mainly by supply-side factors.                                                                                                          S&P Index                  2-10 Spread (bps, RHS)
    Economic growth is likely to see a steady pace while
    demand-driven inflationary pressure is not evident.
                                                                                                                                 The spread between 2- and 30-year yields was 3.99
                                                                                                                                 percentage points, after expanding to a record 4.01
                                                                                                                                 percentage points on Jan 20. (Source: Bloomberg)
    CNBC News: Stocks ended up slightly as the major
    indices failed to close above significant benchmarks soon                                                                    Thai interest rate: IRS and bond yields edged up in the
    after Microsoft, in a surprise move, released earnings                                                                       morning session, following the higher swap points on
    before the bell.                                                                                                             Wednesday. However, Japan’s credit rating downgrade led
                                                                                                                                 swap points to lower again, leading longer rates lower.
    In U.S. economic news, pending home sales rose 2
    percent in December, which was more than expected, the                                                                       IRS 1year tested 2.0% level before ending near 1.94%
    National Association of Realtors reported Thursday.                                                                          while 5-year benchmark bond yield (LB15DA) jumped to
    Jobless claims soared 51,000 to 454,000, as snowfall in                                                                      around 3.42% before ending lower to around 3.40%.
    several states slowed down claims processing, according                                                                          bp                               Government bond yield change                                       %
    to the Labor Department. That's far more than the slight                                                                         30                                                                                                  5.0
    rise to 405,000 expected by economists surveyed by                                                                               25                                                                                                  4.5
    Reuters. Meanwhile, durable goods fell 2.5 percent, the                                                                          20                                                                                                  4.0
    Commerce Department reported. That was far worse than                                                                            15                                                                                                  3.5
    the 1.5 percent rise expected by economists surveyed by                                                                          10                                                                                                  3.0
    Reuters.                                                                                                                          5                                                                                                  2.5
                                                                                                                                      0                                                                                                  2.0
                                                                                                                                     -5                                                                                                  1.5
     thousands                                                                                  thousands                           -10                                                                                1.0
     7000                                                                                              700                                  0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 yrs
                                                                                                       650
     6000                                                                                                                                                Spread (left axis)              28-Jan-11                 21-Jan-11
                                                                                                       600
     5000                                                                                              550
                                                                                                       500                       Although the market’s USD liquidity situation seemed to
     4000                                                                                              450                       have improved, FX swap market is likely to continue seeing
                                                                                                       400                       fluctuations, based on the uncertainties of FIF fund inflows
     3000
                                                                                                       350
                                                                                                                                 from matured investments and the unpredictable USD
     2000                                                                                              300
        Aug-08       Dec-08      Apr-09      Aug-09         Dec-09    Apr-10      Aug-10      Dec-10
                                                                                                                                 liquidity support from the BoT.

               continuing claims 4-wk average (left axis)             initial claims 4-wk average (right axis)                        %                                       THB fixing rates and IRS
                                                                                                                                     2.75
                                                                                                                                     2.50
                                                                                                                                     2.25
                                                                                                                                     2.00
                                                                                                                                     1.75
                                                                                                                                     1.50
                                                                                                                                     1.25
                                                                                                                                     1.00
                                                                                                                                     0.75
                                                                                                                                     0.50
                                                                                                                                               1Wk        1M        2M            3M      6M         9M        1Y      IRS 1Y      IRS 2Y

                                                                                                                                                      current             1-day ago               5-day ago              1-m ago




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 28, 2011

                                              FX Wrap                                                                                                                   Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                 Thu 27-Jan-11              Wed 26-Jan-11                   % Change
       1.42
       1.40                                                                                                                              USD/THB                       30.79                      30.80                        -0.03
       1.38                                                                                                                              USD/JPY                       82.87                      82.27                       +0.73
       1.36                                                                                                                             EUR/USD                        1.373                      1.370                       +0.20
       1.34
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                       1.5926                     1.5900                       +0.16
       1.32
       1.30                                                                                                                              USD/CHF                      0.9450                     0.9432                       +0.19
       1.28                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                       1.2814                     1.2796                       +0.14
       1.26                                                                                                                             USD/TWD                        29.03                      29.06                        -0.07
          Aug-10           Sep-10         Oct-10          Nov-10         Dec-10            Jan-11
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,114.3                     1,115.0                       -0.06
                                                           EUR/USD
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                       44.19                      44.25                        -0.14
    EUR/USD continued to climb higher, closing at 1.373                                                                                  USD/IDR                       9,022                      9,028                        -0.07
    yesterday, its highest since early November 2010. France’s                                                                          USD/MYR                        3.052                      3.050                       +0.05
    President Nicholas Sarkozy said yesterday that both
    France and Germany would stand by the euro and never                                                                                USD/CNY                        6.582                      6.581                       +0.01
                                                                                                                                   Source: Reuters
    let the currency fall, sending a new commitment signal to
                                                                                                                                                                     .FX Consensus Forecast
    speculators and the market.
                                                                                                                                                                        Spot                          Jun 2011                Dec 2011

       38.00                                                                                               80                           USD/THB                        30.98                            28.30                   28.00
       37.50                                                                                               81
                                                                                                                                        USD/JPY                        82.74                            86.00                   89.00
       37.00                                                                                                                            EUR/USD                         1.37                             1.29                    1.30
                                                                                                           82
       36.50                                                                                                                            GBP/USD                         1.59                             1.55                    1.60
                                                                                                           83
       36.00                                                                                                                            USD/CNY                         6.59                             6.46                    6.30
                                                                                                           84
       35.50                                                                                                                            USD/SGD                         1.28                             1.27                    1.23
       35.00                                                                                               85                            USD/IDR                       9,035                            8,900                   8,800
            1-Nov 11-Nov 21-Nov              1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan               20-Jan
                                                                                                                                        USD/MYR                         3.06                             3.02                    2.95
                                 JPY/THB (LHS)                   USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis)
                                                                                                                                        USD/PHP                        44.09                            42.50                   41.50

    USD/JPY rose 0.8% to close at 82.87 after S&P                                                                                       USD/KRW                        1,115                            1,085                   1,050
    downgraded Japan’s sovereign credit rating by a notch on                                                                            USD/TWD                        29.04                            28.80                   28.50
    the back of mounting government debt and poor economic
                                                                                                                                        AUD/USD                         0.99                             0.99                    0.98
    outlook.
                                                                                                                                        NZD/USD                         0.77                             0.77                    0.76
       31.10                                                                                                                       Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
       30.90
                                                                                                                                                                       Currency Pair Targets
       30.70
       30.50                                                                                                                                                                   Spot                  Jun 2011                 Dec 2011
       30.30                                                                                                                                 USD/THB                           30.98                   28.30                     28.0
       30.10
                                                                                                                                             EUR/THB                           42.48                    40.0                     37.0
       29.90
       29.70                                                                                                                                 JPY/THB                           37.46                   34.70                     29.5
       29.50                                                                                                                                 GBP/THB                           49.16                   47.40                     43.7
            Oct-10                  Nov-10                Dec-10                  Jan-11
                                                                                                                                             CNY/THB                           4.70                     4.78                      4.2
                                                           USD/THB
                                                                                                                                             AUD/THB                           30.65                    27.4                     26.0
    USD/THB closed little changed yesterday but rebounded
                                                                                                                                             CHF/THB                           32.76                    29.6                     27.7
    strongly this morning on weak sentiment for the baht. The                                                                      Source: KBank, Bloomberg
    slump in gold prices leads the expectation that local
    investors and gold exporters would use the opportunity to                                                                    KBank NEER Index
    accumulate the metal as well, boosting demand for the
                                                                                                                                 Current                                                                         98.86
    USD.
     $/ounce                                               prices                                     $/barrel
                                                                                                                                 YTD                                                                           + 6.16%

       1500                                                                                              95.0
                                                                                                                                 vs 52 weeks ago                                                               + 5.23%
       1450                                                                                                                      vs 1mth ago                                                                   - 2.24%
                                                                                                         90.0
       1400
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 week ago                                                                 - 0.14%
       1350                                                                                              85.0
       1300                                                                                                                      vs 1 day ago                                                                  - 0.08%
       1250                                                                                              80.0                    vs long term average                                                         + 11.16%
       1200                                                                                                                      Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                         75.0
       1150                                                                                                                      rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
       1100                                                                                              70.0                    competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation
          Jun-10       Jul-10    Aug-10      Sep-10     Oct-10      Nov-10   Dec-10      Jan-11

                                  Gold prices (LHS)                  WTI oil price (RHS)



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 28, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                           Auction results of BoT Bonds                                                                                        Jan 27
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30            -20          -10              0               +10         +20             +30          +40                                                                                                                                         Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.                      Accepted
         LB113A               2.09      2.10           2.12         2.13           2.15              2.16        2.18            2.19         1.96                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)                    Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ratio
           LB116A             2.71      2.61           2.51         2.42           2.32              2.22        2.12            2.03         1.68
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11214A                          0.04              90,000                     2.040/2.134          2.099760       0.97
          LB11NA              3.59      3.32           3.05         2.78           2.51              2.24        1.97            1.70         1.18
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
           LB123A             4.21      3.84           3.46         3.09           2.72              2.35        1.97            1.60         0.98
                                                                                                                                                                       Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
          LB12NA              5.36      4.74           4.13         3.51           2.90              2.28        1.67            1.06         0.19
           LB133A             6.02      5.28           4.54         3.80           3.05              2.31        1.57            0.83        -0.16                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB137A             6.58      5.71           4.85         3.98           3.12              2.25        1.39            0.52        -0.59
          LB13OA              7.01      6.05           5.09         4.13           3.17              2.21        1.25            0.29        -0.92                     CB11214A                          0.04              90,000                     27-Jan-11            14-Feb-11       -
           LB143A             7.38      6.36           5.33         4.31           3.28              2.26        1.23            0.21        -1.07                     CB11215A                          0.04              85,000                     28-Jan-11            15-Feb-11       -
           LB145A             7.93      6.78           5.64         4.49           3.34              2.19        1.04            -0.11 -1.51                           Source: ThaiBMA
           LB145B             7.93      6.78           5.63         4.49           3.34              2.19        1.04            -0.11 -1.50
          LB14DA              8.73      7.40           6.06         4.73           3.39              2.06        0.72            -0.61 -2.20
           LB155A             9.51      7.99           6.47         4.94           3.42              1.90        0.38            -1.14 -2.91
           LB157A             9.37      7.89           6.40         4.92           3.43              1.95        0.47            -1.01 -2.75                           * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
                                                                                                                                                                       during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
          LB15DA              10.34 8.61               6.88         5.16           3.43              1.70       -0.03 -1.76 -3.73                                      cash balance.
           LB167A             10.94 9.08               7.23         5.37           3.51              1.66       -0.20 -2.06 -4.16
          LB16NA              11.49 9.50               7.51         5.53           3.54              1.56       -0.43 -2.41 -4.65
           LB171A             11.58 9.58               7.59         5.60           3.61              1.61       -0.38 -2.37 -4.61
           LB175A             12.12 9.99               7.88         5.76           3.64              1.52       -0.60 -2.72 -5.08
           LB183A             13.21 10.83 8.45                      6.07           3.69              1.31       -1.07 -3.44 -6.07
           LB183B             12.92 10.61 8.31                      6.00           3.70              1.39       -0.91 -3.21 -5.76
           LB191A             13.88 11.34 8.79                      6.25           3.71              1.17       -1.37 -3.91 -6.70
           LB196A             14.83 12.05 9.27                      6.49           3.72              0.94       -1.83 -4.61 -7.63
           LB198A             14.38 11.73 9.07                      6.42           3.77              1.12       -1.53 -4.18 -7.08
          LB19DA              14.94 12.16 9.38                      6.60           3.82              1.05       -1.73 -4.50 -7.53
           LB213A             16.06 13.02 9.98                      6.94           3.90              0.86       -2.18 -5.21 -8.50
           LB214A             15.95 12.95 9.95                      6.95           3.95              0.95       -2.05 -5.04 -8.29
          LB22NA              18.04 14.54 11.04 7.54                               4.05              0.55       -2.94 -6.43 -10.17
           LB233A             18.10 14.60 11.09 7.59                               4.09              0.59       -2.90 -6.40 -10.14
           LB236A             19.55 15.68 11.82 7.96                               4.10              0.24       -3.62 -7.47 -11.58
           LB244A             19.67 15.79 11.90 8.02                               4.14              0.27       -3.61 -7.48 -11.61
          LB24DA              20.29 16.26 12.23 8.20                               4.18              0.15       -3.87 -7.89 -12.15
           LB267A             20.80 16.65 12.51 8.37                               4.23              0.09       -4.05 -8.18 -12.56
           LB283A             22.04 17.59 13.15 8.70                               4.26          -0.18 -4.62 -9.05 -13.73
           LB296A             23.76 18.88 14.01 9.14                               4.28          -0.58 -5.44 -10.30 -15.40
           LB383A             27.97 22.06 16.15 10.25 4.35                                       -1.54 -7.43 -13.31 -19.44
           LB396A             29.30 23.06 16.83 10.60 4.38                                       -1.84 -8.05 -14.25 -20.70
          Average             12.99 10.63 8.28                      5.92           3.57              1.22       -1.13 -3.48 -6.08
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                    30.00

                                    20.00

                                    10.00

                                     0.00

                                   -10.00

                                   -20.00

                                   -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Now
                                   -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB296A
                                              LB113A

                                                        LB116A
                                                                 LB11NA

                                                                          LB123A

                                                                                   LB133A
                                                                                            LB137A

                                                                                                      LB145B

                                                                                                               LB14DA
                                                                                                                        LB155A

                                                                                                                                 LB15DA

                                                                                                                                          LB167A
                                                                                                                                                   LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                            LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                     LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                              LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                       LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                                LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                        The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 28, 2011

                                                                                                                                 their deficit targets and devise contingency plans to ensure
                      Economic News Update                                                                                       that adjustment goals are met," it added.

    U.S., Japan warned by IMF, rating                                                                                            The fund said large European countries will all tighten their
    agencies on debt: The United States and Japan                                                                                budgets this year broadly in line with earlier plans, with
    received sharp warnings from the IMF and ratings agencies                                                                    Spain making the deepest cuts.
    on Thursday that they must tackle their huge budget
    deficits to avoid investors dumping their bonds, which                                                                       The IMF's Cottarelli told reporters that markets were
    would create a sovereign debt crisis and push up their                                                                       overestimating the risk of default or debt restructuring in
    borrowing costs.                                                                                                             Europe, following bailouts of Greece and Ireland.

    Rating agency Standard & Poor's on Thursday cut Japan's                                                                      (Source: Reuters)
    long-term debt rating for the first time since 2002, and a
    day after a U.S. agency raised its 2011 budget deficit
    forecast by 40 percent.

    In the United States, Moody's Investors Service warned
    said while the risk to the United States' coveted top triple-A
    rating was small, it was rising. For details, see

    The International Monetary Fund had harsh words for both
    the United States and Japan, saying they urgently need to
    act to cut their deficits.

    As a political battle heated up in Washington over the
    budget, the U.S. Treasury took steps to prevent the
    government from hitting a legal limit on its debt.
    Republicans are demanding spending cuts as the price of
    their support for raising the $14.294 trillion debt ceiling.

    President Barack Obama this week announced a five-year
    freeze in annual domestic spending, which the White
    House estimates will save more than $400 billion over the
    next decade, but an International Monetary Fund official
    said on Thursday that more is needed.

    Carlo Cottarelli, director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs
    Department, said Washington must be more specific in
    detailing plans that go further.

    One Republican warned that the United States faced the
    risk of a currency crisis if it did not get its debt under
    control. "We're getting closer to that all the time," said
    Texas Representative Ron Paul, who has long advocated a
    return to a requirement that the dollar be backed by gold.

    In Europe, market pressures have forced many
    governments to adopt austerity budgets to bring down
    soaring borrowing costs, and the European Union is now
    locked in debate over whether a 440 billion euro bailout
    fund for its members is too small.

    In a report on global debt, the International Monetary Fund
    patted Europe on the back for its efforts while declaring the
    United States and Japan as the budget-cutting laggards.

    "In advanced economies where fiscal sustainability has not
    been a market concern, credible plans going well beyond
    2011 need to be put in place urgently to lock in benevolent
    market sentiment," the IMF said.
                                                                                                                                                            Market Strategists:
    "Renewed market pressures in some advanced economies
                                                                                                                                                            Nalin Chutchotitham
    demand that these countries underline their commitment to
                                                                                                                                                            Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            Tel: 02-470-3235




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 28, 2011

                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       01/27/2011 06:00                      SK             Current Account in US$ Million                                         DEC                     --                $2114.0M              $1930.0M                 $1934.4M
       01/27/2011 06:00                      SK             Goods Balance in US$ Million                                           DEC                     --                 $3680M                 $3350M                  $3171M
       01/27/2011 06:30                      AU             Westpac Leading Index (MoM)                                           NOV                      --                  0.00%                  0.30%                      --
       01/27/2011 06:50                      JN             Merchnds Trade Balance Total                                           DEC                 ¥465.0B                ¥727.7B               ¥162.8B                  ¥161.1B
       01/27/2011 06:50                      JN             Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal.                                           DEC                 ¥523.9B                ¥707.3B               ¥425.7B                  ¥536.0B
       01/27/2011 06:50                      JN             Merchnds Trade Exports YoY                                             DEC                    9.3                     13                    9.1                      --

       01/27/2011 06:50                      JN             Merchnds Trade Imports YoY                                             DEC                     12                   10.6                   14.2                      --
       01/27/2011 07:01                      UK             Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM)                                         JAN                     --                  -0.50%                -0.40%                      --
       01/27/2011 07:01                      UK             Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY)                                         JAN                     --                  -2.20%                -1.60%                      --
       01/27/2011 09:45                      VN             Exports YTD (YoY)                                                      JAN                     --                 18.10%                 25.50%                      --
       01/27/2011 09:45                      VN             Imports YTD (YoY)                                                      JAN                     --                 15.50%                 20.10%                      --
       01/27/2011 13:30                      IN             Food Articles WPI YoY                                                Jan-15                    --                 15.57%                 15.52%                      --
       01/27/2011 13:30                      IN             Fuel Power Light WPI YoY                                             Jan-15                    --                 10.87%                 11.53%                      --
       01/27/2011 13:30                      IN             Primary Articles WPI YoY                                             Jan-15                    --                 17.26%                 17.03%                      --
       01/27/2011 15:00                      TA             Coincident Index (MoM)                                                 DEC                     --                  1.50%                  0.80%                    1.40%
       01/27/2011 15:00                      TA             Leading Index (MoM)                                                    DEC                     --                  0.30%                  0.00%                    0.20%
       01/27/2011 17:00                      EC             Business Climate Indicator                                             JAN                    1.34                  1.58                   1.31                     1.38
       01/27/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence                                         JAN F                  -11.2                  -11.2                  -11.4                     --
       01/27/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Economic Confidence                                          JAN                   106.7                  106.5                 106.2                    106.6
       01/27/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence                                           JAN                      5                     6                      4                       4.9
       01/27/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-zone Services Confidence                                          JAN                     10                    9.2                    9.8                      9.6
       01/27/2011 17:30                      MA             Overnight Rate                                                       Jan-27                 2.75%                  2.75%                  2.75%                      --
       01/27/2011 18:00                      UK             CBI Reported Sales                                                     JAN                     38                     37                    56                       --
       01/27/2011 20:00                      GE             Consumer Price Index (MoM)                                            JAN P                 -0.30%                 -0.50%                 1.00%                      --
       01/27/2011 20:00                      GE             Consumer Price Index (YoY)                                            JAN P                 2.00%                  1.90%                  1.70%                      --
       01/27/2011 20:00                      GE             CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)                                             JAN P                 -0.30%                 -0.50%                 1.20%                      --
       01/27/2011 20:00                      GE             CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY)                                             JAN P                 2.20%                  2.00%                  1.90%                      --
       01/27/2011 20:30                      US             Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index                                         DEC                    0.11                  0.03                   -0.46                    -0.4
       01/27/2011 20:30                      US             Durable Goods Orders                                                   DEC                  1.50%                  -2.50%                -1.30%                   -0.10%
       01/27/2011 20:30                      US             Durables Ex Transportation                                             DEC                  0.90%                  0.50%                  2.40%                    4.50%
       01/27/2011 20:30                      US             Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air                                         DEC                  1.30%                  1.40%                  2.60%                    3.10%
       01/27/2011 20:30                      US             Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air                                           DEC                     --                  1.70%                  1.00%                    1.40%
       01/27/2011 20:30                      US             Initial Jobless Claims                                               Jan-22                  405K                   454K                   404K                    403K
       01/27/2011 20:30                      US             Continuing Claims                                                    Jan-15                 3873K                  3991K                  3861K                    3897K
       01/27/2011 22:00                      US             Pending Home Sales MoM                                                 DEC                  1.00%                  2.00%                  3.50%                    3.10%
       01/27/2011 22:00                      US             Pending Home Sales YoY                                                 DEC                     --                  -3.60%                -2.40%                   -2.80%
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Jobless Rate                                                           DEC                  5.10%                  4.90%                  5.10%                      --
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Job-To-Applicant Ratio                                                 DEC                    0.58                  0.57                   0.57                      --
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Overall Hhold Spending (YoY)                                           DEC                  -0.60%                 -3.30%                -0.40%                      --
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Tokyo CPI YoY                                                          JAN                  -0.20%                 -0.10%                -0.20%                   -0.10%
       01/28/2011 06:30                      JN             Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY                                            JAN                  -0.30%                 -0.20%                -0.40%                      --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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Kbank daily jan 28

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Jan 28, 2011 Thai Stock Market Jan 27 Change US Market Jan 27 Change SET Index 986.71 +8.64 Dow Jones 11,989.83 +4.39 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 29,093.23 -5,500.88 Nasdaq 2,755.28 +15.78 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +1,266.93 +870.46 S&P 500 1,299.54 +2.91 Thai Bond Market Jan 27 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.39 -3 bp Total Return Index 200.40 +0.03 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.59 -4 bp Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 85.64 -1.69 Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Jan 27 (%) 2.03 2.09 2.27 2.54 2.95 3.20 3.39 3.63 3.84 4.02 4.13 4.22 Change (bp) -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 Interbank Rates Jan 28 Jan 26 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 2.050-2.210 Jan 27 2.26125 2.28141 2.34500 2.39875 2.49750 2.55000 2.65719 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 27 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 27 0.27060 0.30900 0.46550 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 27 1.13471 1.09452 1.25273 1.52567 1.77613 1.99959 Jan 27 0.26000 0.30438 0.45469 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Jan 28 Bid/Ask 1.86/1.89 2.54/2.57 3.05/3.08 3.35/3.39 3.58/3.62 3.89/3.93 4.18/4.22 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.74 30.84 31.09 0.15/2.16 EUR 42.0500 42.1875 42.7163 -2.86/0.63 GBP 48.7325 48.8913 49.4763 -1.14/1.56 JPY 0.3699 0.3710 0.3779 -0.49/3.72 KBank Technical Analysis Jan 28 Jan 27 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.96 30.90 30.90 31.05 Sideway Sell USD near resistance JPY 82.71 82.86 82.30 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistance EUR/USD 1.3702 1.3726 1.3680 1.3790 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • Japan’s long-term credit rating was cut by S&P for the first time since 2002 from AA to AA-. The rating agency said that the country face problems with effective debt reduction over the medium-to-long run while failure to revive the economy is threatening a mounting public debt. • Malaysia central bank policy kept policy rate on hold at 2.75% and said prices are likely to climb moderately in the coming months while growth outlook remained positive • U.S. data mixed - pending home sales rose 2% in Dec, higher-than-expected while jobess claims soared 51,000 to 454,000 claims and durable goods fell 2.5% (worse than expected) FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD continued to climb higher, closing at 1.373 yesterday, its highest since early November 2010. France’s President said that both France and Germany would stand by the euro USD/JPY rose 0.8% to close at 82.87 after S&P downgraded Japan’s rating • USD/THB closed little changed yesterday but rebounded strongly this morning on weak sentiment for the baht Economic News Update • The United States and Japan received sharp warnings from the IMF and ratings agencies on Thursday that they must tackle their huge budget deficits to avoid investors dumping their bonds, which would create a sovereign debt crisis and push up their borrowing costs Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 Macro and Market Outlook US Treasuries and Thai rates Japan’s long-term credit rating was cut by S&P for the The difference between U.S. 2- and 30-year yields was first time since 2002 from AA to AA- (3 notches below the near the widest on record on speculation a report today will highest possible rating). The rating agency said that the show economic growth is quickening, spurring investors to country face problems with effective debt reduction over demand greater compensation for potential inflation. the medium-to-long run while failure to revive the economy Moody’s Investors Service said its time frame for possibly is threatening a mounting public debt. The yen weakened placing a negative outlook on its Aaa rating for U.S. to last week’s low after the news. Treasury bonds is shortening as the country’s deficit widens. The cost to protect Treasuries from losses using PM Naoto Kan is proposing sales tax (at 5% now) increase credit-default swaps rose to the most in almost a year. to help reduce fiscal burden while the government is pushing ahead with a record budget of about $1.0 trillion S&P Index (bp) and would continue to run a budget deficit for the fiscal 1350 300 year starting in April. 1300 280 1250 260 Despite all the debt concerns, Japan's exports grew for the 1200 240 second month in a row in December, thanks in part to 1150 strong demand from China, figures show. 220 1100 1050 200 Malaysia central bank policy kept policy rate on hold at 1000 180 2.75% and said prices are likely to climb moderately in the Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 coming months, driven mainly by supply-side factors. S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) Economic growth is likely to see a steady pace while demand-driven inflationary pressure is not evident. The spread between 2- and 30-year yields was 3.99 percentage points, after expanding to a record 4.01 percentage points on Jan 20. (Source: Bloomberg) CNBC News: Stocks ended up slightly as the major indices failed to close above significant benchmarks soon Thai interest rate: IRS and bond yields edged up in the after Microsoft, in a surprise move, released earnings morning session, following the higher swap points on before the bell. Wednesday. However, Japan’s credit rating downgrade led swap points to lower again, leading longer rates lower. In U.S. economic news, pending home sales rose 2 percent in December, which was more than expected, the IRS 1year tested 2.0% level before ending near 1.94% National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. while 5-year benchmark bond yield (LB15DA) jumped to Jobless claims soared 51,000 to 454,000, as snowfall in around 3.42% before ending lower to around 3.40%. several states slowed down claims processing, according bp Government bond yield change % to the Labor Department. That's far more than the slight 30 5.0 rise to 405,000 expected by economists surveyed by 25 4.5 Reuters. Meanwhile, durable goods fell 2.5 percent, the 20 4.0 Commerce Department reported. That was far worse than 15 3.5 the 1.5 percent rise expected by economists surveyed by 10 3.0 Reuters. 5 2.5 0 2.0 -5 1.5 thousands thousands -10 1.0 7000 700 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 yrs 650 6000 Spread (left axis) 28-Jan-11 21-Jan-11 600 5000 550 500 Although the market’s USD liquidity situation seemed to 4000 450 have improved, FX swap market is likely to continue seeing 400 fluctuations, based on the uncertainties of FIF fund inflows 3000 350 from matured investments and the unpredictable USD 2000 300 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 liquidity support from the BoT. continuing claims 4-wk average (left axis) initial claims 4-wk average (right axis) % THB fixing rates and IRS 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 1Wk 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 1Y IRS 1Y IRS 2Y current 1-day ago 5-day ago 1-m ago 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Thu 27-Jan-11 Wed 26-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 30.79 30.80 -0.03 1.38 USD/JPY 82.87 82.27 +0.73 1.36 EUR/USD 1.373 1.370 +0.20 1.34 GBP/USD 1.5926 1.5900 +0.16 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9450 0.9432 +0.19 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2814 1.2796 +0.14 1.26 USD/TWD 29.03 29.06 -0.07 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 USD/KRW 1,114.3 1,115.0 -0.06 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.19 44.25 -0.14 EUR/USD continued to climb higher, closing at 1.373 USD/IDR 9,022 9,028 -0.07 yesterday, its highest since early November 2010. France’s USD/MYR 3.052 3.050 +0.05 President Nicholas Sarkozy said yesterday that both France and Germany would stand by the euro and never USD/CNY 6.582 6.581 +0.01 Source: Reuters let the currency fall, sending a new commitment signal to .FX Consensus Forecast speculators and the market. Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 38.00 80 USD/THB 30.98 28.30 28.00 37.50 81 USD/JPY 82.74 86.00 89.00 37.00 EUR/USD 1.37 1.29 1.30 82 36.50 GBP/USD 1.59 1.55 1.60 83 36.00 USD/CNY 6.59 6.46 6.30 84 35.50 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.23 35.00 85 USD/IDR 9,035 8,900 8,800 1-Nov 11-Nov 21-Nov 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 20-Jan USD/MYR 3.06 3.02 2.95 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/PHP 44.09 42.50 41.50 USD/JPY rose 0.8% to close at 82.87 after S&P USD/KRW 1,115 1,085 1,050 downgraded Japan’s sovereign credit rating by a notch on USD/TWD 29.04 28.80 28.50 the back of mounting government debt and poor economic AUD/USD 0.99 0.99 0.98 outlook. NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 31.10 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 30.90 Currency Pair Targets 30.70 30.50 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 30.30 USD/THB 30.98 28.30 28.0 30.10 EUR/THB 42.48 40.0 37.0 29.90 29.70 JPY/THB 37.46 34.70 29.5 29.50 GBP/THB 49.16 47.40 43.7 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 CNY/THB 4.70 4.78 4.2 USD/THB AUD/THB 30.65 27.4 26.0 USD/THB closed little changed yesterday but rebounded CHF/THB 32.76 29.6 27.7 strongly this morning on weak sentiment for the baht. The Source: KBank, Bloomberg slump in gold prices leads the expectation that local investors and gold exporters would use the opportunity to KBank NEER Index accumulate the metal as well, boosting demand for the Current 98.86 USD. $/ounce prices $/barrel YTD + 6.16% 1500 95.0 vs 52 weeks ago + 5.23% 1450 vs 1mth ago - 2.24% 90.0 1400 vs 1 week ago - 0.14% 1350 85.0 1300 vs 1 day ago - 0.08% 1250 80.0 vs long term average + 11.16% 1200 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange 75.0 1150 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade 1100 70.0 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Gold prices (LHS) WTI oil price (RHS) 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 27 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.09 2.10 2.12 2.13 2.15 2.16 2.18 2.19 1.96 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.71 2.61 2.51 2.42 2.32 2.22 2.12 2.03 1.68 CB11214A 0.04 90,000 2.040/2.134 2.099760 0.97 LB11NA 3.59 3.32 3.05 2.78 2.51 2.24 1.97 1.70 1.18 Source: ThaiBMA LB123A 4.21 3.84 3.46 3.09 2.72 2.35 1.97 1.60 0.98 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB12NA 5.36 4.74 4.13 3.51 2.90 2.28 1.67 1.06 0.19 LB133A 6.02 5.28 4.54 3.80 3.05 2.31 1.57 0.83 -0.16 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB137A 6.58 5.71 4.85 3.98 3.12 2.25 1.39 0.52 -0.59 LB13OA 7.01 6.05 5.09 4.13 3.17 2.21 1.25 0.29 -0.92 CB11214A 0.04 90,000 27-Jan-11 14-Feb-11 - LB143A 7.38 6.36 5.33 4.31 3.28 2.26 1.23 0.21 -1.07 CB11215A 0.04 85,000 28-Jan-11 15-Feb-11 - LB145A 7.93 6.78 5.64 4.49 3.34 2.19 1.04 -0.11 -1.51 Source: ThaiBMA LB145B 7.93 6.78 5.63 4.49 3.34 2.19 1.04 -0.11 -1.50 LB14DA 8.73 7.40 6.06 4.73 3.39 2.06 0.72 -0.61 -2.20 LB155A 9.51 7.99 6.47 4.94 3.42 1.90 0.38 -1.14 -2.91 LB157A 9.37 7.89 6.40 4.92 3.43 1.95 0.47 -1.01 -2.75 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB15DA 10.34 8.61 6.88 5.16 3.43 1.70 -0.03 -1.76 -3.73 cash balance. LB167A 10.94 9.08 7.23 5.37 3.51 1.66 -0.20 -2.06 -4.16 LB16NA 11.49 9.50 7.51 5.53 3.54 1.56 -0.43 -2.41 -4.65 LB171A 11.58 9.58 7.59 5.60 3.61 1.61 -0.38 -2.37 -4.61 LB175A 12.12 9.99 7.88 5.76 3.64 1.52 -0.60 -2.72 -5.08 LB183A 13.21 10.83 8.45 6.07 3.69 1.31 -1.07 -3.44 -6.07 LB183B 12.92 10.61 8.31 6.00 3.70 1.39 -0.91 -3.21 -5.76 LB191A 13.88 11.34 8.79 6.25 3.71 1.17 -1.37 -3.91 -6.70 LB196A 14.83 12.05 9.27 6.49 3.72 0.94 -1.83 -4.61 -7.63 LB198A 14.38 11.73 9.07 6.42 3.77 1.12 -1.53 -4.18 -7.08 LB19DA 14.94 12.16 9.38 6.60 3.82 1.05 -1.73 -4.50 -7.53 LB213A 16.06 13.02 9.98 6.94 3.90 0.86 -2.18 -5.21 -8.50 LB214A 15.95 12.95 9.95 6.95 3.95 0.95 -2.05 -5.04 -8.29 LB22NA 18.04 14.54 11.04 7.54 4.05 0.55 -2.94 -6.43 -10.17 LB233A 18.10 14.60 11.09 7.59 4.09 0.59 -2.90 -6.40 -10.14 LB236A 19.55 15.68 11.82 7.96 4.10 0.24 -3.62 -7.47 -11.58 LB244A 19.67 15.79 11.90 8.02 4.14 0.27 -3.61 -7.48 -11.61 LB24DA 20.29 16.26 12.23 8.20 4.18 0.15 -3.87 -7.89 -12.15 LB267A 20.80 16.65 12.51 8.37 4.23 0.09 -4.05 -8.18 -12.56 LB283A 22.04 17.59 13.15 8.70 4.26 -0.18 -4.62 -9.05 -13.73 LB296A 23.76 18.88 14.01 9.14 4.28 -0.58 -5.44 -10.30 -15.40 LB383A 27.97 22.06 16.15 10.25 4.35 -1.54 -7.43 -13.31 -19.44 LB396A 29.30 23.06 16.83 10.60 4.38 -1.84 -8.05 -14.25 -20.70 Average 12.99 10.63 8.28 5.92 3.57 1.22 -1.13 -3.48 -6.08 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 their deficit targets and devise contingency plans to ensure Economic News Update that adjustment goals are met," it added. U.S., Japan warned by IMF, rating The fund said large European countries will all tighten their agencies on debt: The United States and Japan budgets this year broadly in line with earlier plans, with received sharp warnings from the IMF and ratings agencies Spain making the deepest cuts. on Thursday that they must tackle their huge budget deficits to avoid investors dumping their bonds, which The IMF's Cottarelli told reporters that markets were would create a sovereign debt crisis and push up their overestimating the risk of default or debt restructuring in borrowing costs. Europe, following bailouts of Greece and Ireland. Rating agency Standard & Poor's on Thursday cut Japan's (Source: Reuters) long-term debt rating for the first time since 2002, and a day after a U.S. agency raised its 2011 budget deficit forecast by 40 percent. In the United States, Moody's Investors Service warned said while the risk to the United States' coveted top triple-A rating was small, it was rising. For details, see The International Monetary Fund had harsh words for both the United States and Japan, saying they urgently need to act to cut their deficits. As a political battle heated up in Washington over the budget, the U.S. Treasury took steps to prevent the government from hitting a legal limit on its debt. Republicans are demanding spending cuts as the price of their support for raising the $14.294 trillion debt ceiling. President Barack Obama this week announced a five-year freeze in annual domestic spending, which the White House estimates will save more than $400 billion over the next decade, but an International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday that more is needed. Carlo Cottarelli, director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, said Washington must be more specific in detailing plans that go further. One Republican warned that the United States faced the risk of a currency crisis if it did not get its debt under control. "We're getting closer to that all the time," said Texas Representative Ron Paul, who has long advocated a return to a requirement that the dollar be backed by gold. In Europe, market pressures have forced many governments to adopt austerity budgets to bring down soaring borrowing costs, and the European Union is now locked in debate over whether a 440 billion euro bailout fund for its members is too small. In a report on global debt, the International Monetary Fund patted Europe on the back for its efforts while declaring the United States and Japan as the budget-cutting laggards. "In advanced economies where fiscal sustainability has not been a market concern, credible plans going well beyond 2011 need to be put in place urgently to lock in benevolent market sentiment," the IMF said. Market Strategists: "Renewed market pressures in some advanced economies Nalin Chutchotitham demand that these countries underline their commitment to Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/27/2011 06:00 SK Current Account in US$ Million DEC -- $2114.0M $1930.0M $1934.4M 01/27/2011 06:00 SK Goods Balance in US$ Million DEC -- $3680M $3350M $3171M 01/27/2011 06:30 AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM) NOV -- 0.00% 0.30% -- 01/27/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total DEC ¥465.0B ¥727.7B ¥162.8B ¥161.1B 01/27/2011 06:50 JN Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal. DEC ¥523.9B ¥707.3B ¥425.7B ¥536.0B 01/27/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Exports YoY DEC 9.3 13 9.1 -- 01/27/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Imports YoY DEC 12 10.6 14.2 -- 01/27/2011 07:01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) JAN -- -0.50% -0.40% -- 01/27/2011 07:01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) JAN -- -2.20% -1.60% -- 01/27/2011 09:45 VN Exports YTD (YoY) JAN -- 18.10% 25.50% -- 01/27/2011 09:45 VN Imports YTD (YoY) JAN -- 15.50% 20.10% -- 01/27/2011 13:30 IN Food Articles WPI YoY Jan-15 -- 15.57% 15.52% -- 01/27/2011 13:30 IN Fuel Power Light WPI YoY Jan-15 -- 10.87% 11.53% -- 01/27/2011 13:30 IN Primary Articles WPI YoY Jan-15 -- 17.26% 17.03% -- 01/27/2011 15:00 TA Coincident Index (MoM) DEC -- 1.50% 0.80% 1.40% 01/27/2011 15:00 TA Leading Index (MoM) DEC -- 0.30% 0.00% 0.20% 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Business Climate Indicator JAN 1.34 1.58 1.31 1.38 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence JAN F -11.2 -11.2 -11.4 -- 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Economic Confidence JAN 106.7 106.5 106.2 106.6 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence JAN 5 6 4 4.9 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Euro-zone Services Confidence JAN 10 9.2 9.8 9.6 01/27/2011 17:30 MA Overnight Rate Jan-27 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% -- 01/27/2011 18:00 UK CBI Reported Sales JAN 38 37 56 -- 01/27/2011 20:00 GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) JAN P -0.30% -0.50% 1.00% -- 01/27/2011 20:00 GE Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN P 2.00% 1.90% 1.70% -- 01/27/2011 20:00 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) JAN P -0.30% -0.50% 1.20% -- 01/27/2011 20:00 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) JAN P 2.20% 2.00% 1.90% -- 01/27/2011 20:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index DEC 0.11 0.03 -0.46 -0.4 01/27/2011 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders DEC 1.50% -2.50% -1.30% -0.10% 01/27/2011 20:30 US Durables Ex Transportation DEC 0.90% 0.50% 2.40% 4.50% 01/27/2011 20:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air DEC 1.30% 1.40% 2.60% 3.10% 01/27/2011 20:30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air DEC -- 1.70% 1.00% 1.40% 01/27/2011 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jan-22 405K 454K 404K 403K 01/27/2011 20:30 US Continuing Claims Jan-15 3873K 3991K 3861K 3897K 01/27/2011 22:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM DEC 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 3.10% 01/27/2011 22:00 US Pending Home Sales YoY DEC -- -3.60% -2.40% -2.80% 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Jobless Rate DEC 5.10% 4.90% 5.10% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio DEC 0.58 0.57 0.57 -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) DEC -0.60% -3.30% -0.40% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI YoY JAN -0.20% -0.10% -0.20% -0.10% 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY JAN -0.30% -0.20% -0.40% -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.