1. Connected, secure, two-way grid assets
Richard Smith
Head of Energy Strategy & Policy
5th Annual Smart Grids & Cleanpower 2013 Conference
5 June 2013 Cambridge
www.cir-strategy.com/events/cleanpower
2. 2
The changing grid
IFA
France
2GW
existing electricity network
potential wind farm sites
potential nuclear sites
interconnectors
France
2GW
Britned
Netherlands
1.2GW
Belgium
1GW
Norway
1.4GW
East-West
Ireland
500MW
Moyle
Ireland
500MW*
Denmark
1GW
Arrows are illustrative and do not show connection points.
Cumulative contracted generation (GW)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025*
Interconnector Renewable Non-renewable
Source: National Grid TNQCU – March 2013.
* No new contracted generation after 2025.
Renewable fuel types: Biomass, Hydro, Tidal, Wave, Wind
3. 3
The need for a smarter system:
B6 boundary example
Boundary B6 is the boundary between
SP transmission and NGET.
Scotland typically contains an excess of
generation leading to mostly north-
south power flows as the most likely
stress condition.
Current capability is limited to around
3.3GW
Source: National Grid Electricity Ten Year Statement – November 2012.
4. 4
The need for a smarter system:
B6 boundary example
Boundary B6 is the boundary between
SP transmission and NGET.
Scotland typically contains an excess of
generation leading to mostly north-
south power flows as the most likely
stress condition.
Current capability is limited to around
3.3GW
Solutions:
¾ Invest in primary assets to deliver physical capability eg:
¾ Harker–Hutton, Eccles–Stella West and Strathaven–Harker series compensation.
¾ 2.4GW Western HVDC link (submarine HVDC cable route from Deeside to Hunterston).
¾ ~2 GW Eastern HVDC link (submarine HVDC cable route from Peterhead to Hawthorn Pit via Torness.
¾ Harker–Strathaven reconductoring and series compensation
Capability gap RIIO-T1 Capability gap RIIO-T2+
Source: National Grid Electricity Ten Year Statement – November 2012.
5. 5
The need for a smarter system:
B6 boundary example
Boundary B6 is the boundary between
SP transmission and NGET.
Scotland typically contains an excess of
generation leading to mostly north-
south power flows as the most likely
stress condition.
Current capability is limited to around
3.3GW
Solutions:
¾ Invest in primary assets to deliver physical capability
¾ Invest in secondary assets to enhance capability eg:
¾ Circuit rating enhancement
¾ Risk management
¾ Condition monitoring
¾ Remote asset management and monitoring
Capability gap RIIO-T1 Capability gap RIIO-T2+
RIIO-T1 investment potential
Source: National Grid Electricity Ten Year Statement – November 2012.
6. 6
The need for a smarter system:
B6 boundary example
Boundary B6 is the boundary between
SP transmission and NGET.
Scotland typically contains an excess of
generation leading to mostly north-
south power flows as the most likely
stress condition.
Current capability is limited to around
3.3GW
Solutions:
¾ Invest in primary assets to deliver physical capability
¾ Invest in secondary assets to enhance capability
¾ Invest in commercial solutions:
¾ Flex generation
¾ Interconnection
¾ Storage
¾ Demand management
Source: National Grid Electricity Ten Year Statement – November 2012.
Capability gap RIIO-T1 Capability gap RIIO-T2+
RIIO-T1 investment potential
7. 7
Flex generation
2012 generation capacity
(86.9GW)*
Gas / CHP Coal Nuclear
Offshore wind Onshore wind Other renewable
Other (inc oil)
2030 generation capacity
(139.8GW)*
Gas / CHP Coal Nuclear
Offshore wind Onshore wind Other renewable
Other (inc oil)
Source: National Grid Gone Green 2012 scenario.
* Excludes interconnection & pumped storage.
~75%
flexible thermal
~40%
flexible thermal
8. 8
Interconnection & storage (grid scale)
Interconnectors Storage
Source: National Grid Gone Green scenario analysis.
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
0.1 1 10 100 10000.010.001
Power (MW)
Stored Energy (MWh)
1 hour
10 hours
1
m
inute1
second
Dinorwig
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
0.1 1 10 100 10000.010.001
Power (MW)
Stored Energy (MWh)
1 hour
10 hours
1
m
inute1
second
Dinorwig
Capacitor
Flywheels
Batteries
Diesel Generators
Superconducting Magnets
Pumped Storage
Technologies
Capacitor
Flywheels
Batteries
Diesel Generators
Superconducting Magnets
Pumped Storage
Technologies Applications/Markets
Uninterruptible Power Supplies
Large Arbitrage
Reserve
Small Arbitrage
Power Quality
Traction Supplies
Electric Vehicles
Uninterruptible Power Supplies
Large Arbitrage
Reserve
Small Arbitrage
Power Quality
Traction Supplies
Electric Vehicles
9. 9
Demand management
Average consumer demand profile for winter peak ~2010
Source: Load Research Limited (excluding Economy 7 demand).
Heat
TVs
Fridges /
freezers
Consumer electronics
Lighting
Cooking
Heat pumps and electric vehicles will dominate the demand profile in 2030
Time of Use Tariffs should increase variability between users and days
10. 10
Heat – where networks meet…
HEAT DEMAND IS HIGHLY VARIABLE
¾ Seasonality drives heat demand:
¾ Summer minimum of ~500GWh/day
¾ Winter maximum of ~3,000GWh/day
¾ Heat pump efficiency reduces significantly
with colder external temperatures
(coefficient of performance range: 1.5 to 5)
Key technical challenge:
Key policy considerations:
GAS HAS AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY
¾ Full electrification will be highly costly
(100GW – 150GW new electricity capacity
required, at low load factors)
¾ Hybrid solutions including gas, heat
networks & electrification can decarbonise
heat economically
¾ Increased insulation is essential in all cases
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1
16
31
46
61
76
91
106
121
136
151
166
181
196
211
226
241
256
271
286
301
316
331
346
361
Electricity
/
Heat
Load
-‐TWh/Day
Other
Environmental
Heat
Heat
pump
electric
load
Electric
Incremental electrification will use dirtier marginal power stations
