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Creating Value in Banking 2011
Settling into the New Postcrisis Equilibrium



March 3, 2011
Summary (part 1)
                 The global banking industry’s market capitalization increased by 10 percent in 2010,
                 following a 55 percent increase in 2009
                    • 2010 was a tale of two halves: the industry’s market capitalization declined by 9 percent over
   Market
                       the first six months before climbing 22 percent in the second half
capitalization
                    • At $7.1 trillion, the industry’s market capitalization remained well shy of the precrisis peak—
                       though the gains made since the start of the crisis have been impressive

                 The banking industry’s total shareholder return (TSR) fell from 47.1 percent in 2009 to 6.0
                 percent in 2010—9 percentage points below the all-industry average
                   • Banking TSRs declined in every region except the Middle East, which had the third-highest
                      regional TSR
                   • The highest banking TSRs were in the emerging markets of Latin America and Central and
                      Eastern Europe
   Total           • The reversal in performance was striking. The banking industry’s TSR went from being the
shareholder           third highest in 2009 to the third lowest in 2010
  return         Among ten major banking markets, Canada continued to have above-average TSR
                 performance, but the U.K. and U.S. sectors were surprisingly strong
                   • None of the other ten major banking markets achieved positive—let alone above-average—
                      TSRs in 2010
                   • The performance of U.S. banks was surprising, but it was likely boosted by nonrecurring
                      events—namely the withdrawal of money from loan loss reserves
                   • Spain and Italy had the weakest banking TSRs among the major markets, largely due to
                      concerns over public debt
                                                                                                                  1
Summary (part 2)
                Five of the ten largest banks in the world—measured by market capitalization—were from
                emerging markets
                   • Four of the ten largest are based in China—including Agricultural Bank of China, which had
                     its IPO, the world’s largest, in mid-2010. Itaú Unibanco, which was formed by the merger of
  World’s            Banco Itaú and Unibanco, ranked tenth, underscoring the strength of Brazil’s economy and
  largest            banks
   banks
                   • In all, 11 of the world’s 30 largest banks were either based in or focused on emerging
                     markets
                   • For the second year in a row, each of Australia’s Big Four banks placed in the top 30

                For the first time since the crisis began, all ten major banking markets were profitable
                   • Switzerland had the highest average after-tax ROE, at 16 percent, followed by Canada and
                      Australia; bank profitability improved in most markets but declined in Spain and was relatively
                      flat in Italy
                   • The biggest improvements in ROE were in Japan and Switzerland, at 17.5 and 11.1
                      percentage points, respectively, followed by the U.S., at 6.3 percentage points
Profitability
                Banks made less profit than they did before the crisis, while having a much larger
                foundation of equity
                   • The average after-tax ROE doubled from 4.8 percent in 2009 to 9.6 percent in 2010
                   • The industry's profits soared by more than 130 percent, from $166 billion to $386 billion
                   • At the same time, the industry's total equity increased by 8.6 percent, to about $4.2 trillion



                                                                                                                  2
Exhibit 1. The Banking Industry’s Recovery Continued at a
Slower Pace in 2010

                     Total market capitalization,                                                                 Quarterly change in total market
                       2005–2010 ($trillions)                                                                    capitalization, 2009–2010 ($trillions)

CAGR1                                            1.3%


                     26.8%         2.7%         −52.0%     54.9%         10.0%                                           4.2%   −13.8%   17.0%    4.8%
      10                                                                                                  10

                                          8.7
                             8.4
       8                                                                                                  8
                                                                                 7.1                                                              0.3      7.1
               6.7                                                                                                       0.3     -0.9     1.0
                                                                   6.4                                           6.4
       6                                                                                                  6


                                                     4.2
       4                                                                                                  4



       2                                                                                                  2



       0                                                                                                  0
              2005        2006            2007      2008       2009          2010                              Year-end Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Year-end
                                                                                                                 2009                                     2010
                                    End-of-year values

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.
Note: Percentage changes in market capitalization were calculated using complete, not rounded, figures.
1Compound annual growth rate.

                                                                                                                                                                   3
Exhibit 2. Banks in Emerging Markets Again Had Outstanding
Performance

                                              1                                                                                                            1
                     Total shareholder return,1                                                                         Total shareholder return by region,1
                           2006–2010 (%)                                                                                         2009 and 2010 (%)

                               −1.9              5.3
                                                                                                                                                7.9
                                                                                                                 Asia-Pacific3                                                                33.9
                                                        47.1                                                                                                 50.3
                                                               39.0
                                                                                                                                                9.3
                                                                                                              North America4                                                                  25.1
    21.5 23.8                                                                                                                                          28.9
                            15.2                                                 15.0
                                                                                                                                    −9.0
                                                                           6.0                              Western Europe5                                                                   21.9
                      2.3                                                                                                                                    52.7

                                                                                                                                                      22.5
                                                                                                               Latin America6                                                                  8.5
                                                                                                                                                                      105.0

                                                                                                                 Central and                      18.4
                                                                                                                                                                                               4.8
                                                                                                             Eastern Europe7                                         100.0
                                              -43.3
                                                                                                                                                  15.2
                                      -53.2                                                                      Middle East8                                                                  4.3
                                                                                                                                                3.6
       2006             2007              2008             2009              2010
                                                                                                                                                                           Percentage of global
                        Banking industry           All-industry average2                                                                 2010          2009                banking market
                                                                                                                                                                           capitalization, 2010

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.
Note: TSRs were calculated after conversion to U.S. dollars.
1TSR consists of capital gains and free-cash-flow yields. 2Weighted by market capitalization. 3Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South

Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Thailand. 4U.S. and Canada. 5EU-15 countries plus Norway and Switzerland. 6Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. 7Bulgaria, Cyprus,
Czech Republic, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, and Turkey. 8Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Abu Dhabi and Dubai).
                                                                                                                                                                                                     4
Exhibit 3. The Banking Industry’s TSR Fell Well Below the All-
Industry Average

                                              1                                                                                                         1
                     Total shareholder return,1                                                                                Total shareholder return,1
                      2006–2010 per year (%)                                                                                           2010 (%)

          Basic materials                                                          16.1                                                                              25.3              -61.5

        Consumer goods                                                 9.1                                                                                    21.8                     −15.5

   Telecommunications                                               8.4                                                                       13.2                                      −0.4

               Oil and gas                                        7.9                                                                          13.5                                    −27.4

                    Utilities                                    6.9                                                    1.0                                                            −14.7

                Industrials                                   6.6                                                                                                23.5                  −16.4

              Technology                                4.8                                                                                   13.3                                     −49.7

     Consumer services                                 4.4                                                                                                    21.6                      −8.5

               Health care                           3.5                                                                       5.0                                                     −16.5

                   Banking      −1.9                                                                                             6.0                                                   −41.1




   All-industry average2                                   5.3                                                                                   15.0                                  −24.1

                                                                                                                                              Change, in percentage points, from 2009 TSR
Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.
Note: All TSRs were calculated after conversion to U.S. dollars based on the respective Thomson Reuters Datastream global industry index (weighted by market capitalization). The TSR for the
banking industry was based on Thomson Reuters Datastream global banking and financial-services indexes.
1TSR consists of capital gains and free-cash-flow yields. 2Weighted by market capitalization.

                                                                                                                                                                                                5
Exhibit 4. All but Three Major Markets Had Negative TSRs in
2010

                                                 1                                                              1
                                                                                       Total shareholder return,1
                        Total shareholder return,1
                         2006–2010 per year (%)                                                2010 (%)

           Canada                                                        6.4                                                  11.1   −49.7

          Australia                                                3.2                            −3.8                               −65.2

             Spain                                          −4.2               −24.5                                                 −76.1

              U.S.                                     −6.5                                                            7.8           −15.7

               U.K.                                   −7.2                                                              8.3          −21.5

            France                                 −8.5                                 −10.5                                        −84.9

      Switzerland                              −10.0                                            −5.9                                 −39.4

         Germany                              −10.5                                              −4.5                                −42.0

                Italy                       −11.3                              −24.3                                                 −59.1

             Japan −22.8                                                                          −3.8                               +14.2


                                                                                                  Change, in percentage points, from 2009 TSR

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.
Note: All TSRs were calculated in local currencies.
1TSR consists of capital gains and free-cash-flow yields.

                                                                                                                                                6
Exhibit 5. Banks That Were Based in—or Focused on—
Emerging Markets Were Prominent

    Market capitalization
    ($billions)
    400                       Top 10
                                                                       Commonwealth Bank of Australia (+1)
                                                                         Mitsubishi UFJ (+1)
                                                                             BNP Paribas (-6)
                                                                                 Royal Bank of Canada (-3)
                                                                                     Sberbank (+2)
    300              ICBC (±0)                                                           Lloyds Banking Group (+8)
                       China Construction Bank (±0)                                          Westpac Banking (-2)
                          HSBC (±0)                                                              Banco Bradesco (+1)
                              JPMorgan Chase (±0)                                                   The Toronto-Dominion Bank (+3)
                                  Wells Fargo (+1)                                                      Standard Chartered Bank (+8)
    200                                                                                                     UBS (±0)
                                      Bank of China (-1)
                                          Citigroup (+3)                                                        ANZ (+3)
                                                                                                                   Bank of Nova Scotia2 (+9)
                                                                                                                       Banco do Brasil2 (+11)
               Agricultural Bank of China2,3                                                                               National Australia Bank (+2)
    100                 Bank of America (-1)                                                                                   US Bancorp2 (+10)
                             Itaú Unibanco (+1)                                                                                    American Express2 (+4)
                                 Banco Santander (-4)                                                                                                    Bank of Communications (-12)
                                    Goldman Sachs (±0)
       0
           0         2       4        6        8        10       12        14       16       18        20       22         24      26      28       30

                                                                                                             Rank by market capitalization1
                                                                                                                            Market capitalization of the top 30 banks in 2007
                                                                                                                            Market capitalization of the top 30 banks in 2010


Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.
Note: All market capitalizations are based on figures in U.S. dollars.
1Numbers in parentheses indicate change in rank since December 31, 2009. 2Represents a new entry. 3IPO on July 15, 2010.

                                                                                                                                                                                   7
Exhibit 6. For the First Time Since the Crisis Began, All Major
Banking Markets Were Profitable

                                                                                                            Most profitable banking sectors and universal
                                                           1,2                                                                               1,2
                      After-tax ROE,              2006−20101,2            (%)                                     banks, 2010 after-tax ROE1,2 (%)

                                                                                              Switzerland              Switzerland               16.0            16.3               UBS
    30                                                                                        Canada
                                                                                                                            Canada               15.5               19.7            CIBC
                                                                                              Australia
                                                                                              Spain                                                                          Commonwealth Bank
                                                                                                                           Australia            15.3               18.6         of Australia
    20                                                                                        U.S.
                                                                                              France                          Spain         11.3           13.5                     BBVA

                                                                                              Germany                           U.S.       8.7            12.2                   US Bancorp
                                                                                              Japan
    10
                                                                                              U.K.                           France        8.3           10.9                    BNP Paribas

                                                                                              Italy
                                                                                                                          Germany         7.0      7.2                         Deutsche Bank
      0                                                                                                                       Japan       6.8             12.8              Mizuho Financial Group
       2006              2007              2008              2009               2010
                                                                                                                                U.K.      6.5              13.8            Standard Chartered Bank

   -10                                                                                                                          Italy 3.5         6.2                            Mediobanca



                                                                                                                                     Country average3
   -50



Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Bloomberg; BCG analysis.
Note: When data were unavailable for 2010, calculations were based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts.
1ROE was calculated based on average equity. 2Includes only banks with market capitalizations above $5 billion in the ten major developed markets. 3Average of all banks.

                                                                                                                                                                                               8
Exhibit 7. Bank Profits Soared and the Industry's ROE
Doubled

                                   ROE1 (%)
                                      1                                                                                               Equity2 (billions)
                                                                                                                                            2



  17.8                                                                                                                    22.0%            -4.2%           24.5%             8.6%
                    14.8                                                                                                                                                             4,161
                                                                                                                                                                    3,832
                                                                                                                                  3,213            3,078
                                                                            9.6                                  2,634

                                       3.9                4.8



  2006              2007              2008              2009               2010                                    2006             2007           2008              2009             2010


                                                                         After-tax profit2 ($billions)
                                                                                         2



                                                                    1.9%           -71.5%           35.3%          131.8%

                                                            424              432
                                                                                                                              386

                                                                                                             166
                                                                                             123


                                                           2006             2007            2008            2009             2010


Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Bloomberg; BCG analysis.
Note: When data were unavailable for 2010, calculations were based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts. To meet the data requirements of this performance analysis, a subset of the full market
sample was used—378 banks instead of 653.
1ROE = after-tax return on average equity. 2Percentage changes are based on complete, not rounded, figures.

                                                                                                                                                                                               9
Exhibit 8. Most of the Top-Performing Large-Caps Were
     Universal Banks

                                                                            Top ten large-cap performers

                                  1                                                                                                              1
                                                                                                                                            RTSR,1 2010 (%)
                             RTSR,1 2006–2010 (%)


                    Sberbank                                                12.6                                                Citigroup                                            22.6

         State Bank of India                                         10.9                                                     ICICI Bank                                          20.9

                    Blackrock                                        10.6                                                            RBS                                  15.6

  Standard Chartered Bank                                7.1                                                        State Bank of India                                14.5

                                                                                                           Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
            Banco do Brasil                             6.7                                                                                                         12.6
                                                                                                                              Group
      Commonwealth Bank
                                                4.3                                                             Lloyds Banking Group                               12.0
             of Australia

    China Merchants Bank                       3.7                                                                      Banco do Brasil                      7.9

            Goldman Sachs                      3.5                                                                     Banco Bradesco                   5.9

       Bank of Nova Scotia               2.0                                                                                         ANZ               4.8

The Toronto-Dominion Bank             1.0                                                                             Hang Seng Bank                 3.7
     Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.
     Note: The sample consists of the 50 largest banks by market capitalization as of December 31, 2010, that had a five-year capital-market history. Banking companies from the Middle East were
     excluded from this analysis because of the lack of market indexes. All TSRs were calculated in local currencies.
     1Relative total shareholder return (RTSR) adjusts TSR for local market influences.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    10
Exhibit 9. Banks from Emerging Markets Were Prevalent
  among Top Mid-Caps

                                                                         Top ten mid-cap performers

                               1                                                                                                              1
                                                                                                                                         RTSR,1 2010 (%)
                          RTSR,1 2006–2010 (%)


                    Axis Bank                                       18.6                                                        Grupo Aval                                       57.1

                 CIMB Group                                 11.8                                                           Fifth Third Bank                       29.6

               T. Rowe Price                            11.1                                                         Ameriprise Financial                         29.2

                  HDFC Bank                            10.1                                                                    HDFC Bank                         26.6

          T. Garanti Bankasi                          9.5                                                                         Axis Bank                      25.7

                        HDFC2                        8.9                                                                             HDFC2                       25.5

                   Grupo Aval                    7.6                                                                       SunTrust Banks                      25.0

            PKO Bank Polski                      7.2                                                                       Banco de Chile                    21.1

                 Bank Mandiri                   6.9                                                                               DnB NOR                  18.1

The Siam Commercial Bank                       6.0                                                             Grupo Financiero Inbursa                   15.5
  Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.
  Note: The sample consists of the banks ranked 51 to 100 by market capitalization as of December 31, 2010, that had a five-year capital-market history. Banking companies from the Middle East were
  excluded from this analysis because of the lack of market indexes. All TSRs were calculated in local currencies.
  1Relative total shareholder return (RTSR) adjusts TSR for local market influences. 2Housing Development Finance Corporation.

                                                                                                                                                                                                 11
For Further Contact
To arrange an interview with the authors of BCG’s study of value creation in banking, please contact
Eric Gregoire at +1 617 850 3783 or gregoire.eric@bcg.com.



About The Boston Consulting Group
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the world’s
leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients in all sectors and regions to identify
their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their
businesses. Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies and
markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients
achieve sustainable competitive advantage, build more capable organizations, and secure lasting
results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with 71 offices in 41 countries. For more
information, please visit www.bcg.com.




                                                                                                           12

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Creating Value in Banking 2011

  • 1. Creating Value in Banking 2011 Settling into the New Postcrisis Equilibrium March 3, 2011
  • 2. Summary (part 1) The global banking industry’s market capitalization increased by 10 percent in 2010, following a 55 percent increase in 2009 • 2010 was a tale of two halves: the industry’s market capitalization declined by 9 percent over Market the first six months before climbing 22 percent in the second half capitalization • At $7.1 trillion, the industry’s market capitalization remained well shy of the precrisis peak— though the gains made since the start of the crisis have been impressive The banking industry’s total shareholder return (TSR) fell from 47.1 percent in 2009 to 6.0 percent in 2010—9 percentage points below the all-industry average • Banking TSRs declined in every region except the Middle East, which had the third-highest regional TSR • The highest banking TSRs were in the emerging markets of Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe Total • The reversal in performance was striking. The banking industry’s TSR went from being the shareholder third highest in 2009 to the third lowest in 2010 return Among ten major banking markets, Canada continued to have above-average TSR performance, but the U.K. and U.S. sectors were surprisingly strong • None of the other ten major banking markets achieved positive—let alone above-average— TSRs in 2010 • The performance of U.S. banks was surprising, but it was likely boosted by nonrecurring events—namely the withdrawal of money from loan loss reserves • Spain and Italy had the weakest banking TSRs among the major markets, largely due to concerns over public debt 1
  • 3. Summary (part 2) Five of the ten largest banks in the world—measured by market capitalization—were from emerging markets • Four of the ten largest are based in China—including Agricultural Bank of China, which had its IPO, the world’s largest, in mid-2010. Itaú Unibanco, which was formed by the merger of World’s Banco Itaú and Unibanco, ranked tenth, underscoring the strength of Brazil’s economy and largest banks banks • In all, 11 of the world’s 30 largest banks were either based in or focused on emerging markets • For the second year in a row, each of Australia’s Big Four banks placed in the top 30 For the first time since the crisis began, all ten major banking markets were profitable • Switzerland had the highest average after-tax ROE, at 16 percent, followed by Canada and Australia; bank profitability improved in most markets but declined in Spain and was relatively flat in Italy • The biggest improvements in ROE were in Japan and Switzerland, at 17.5 and 11.1 percentage points, respectively, followed by the U.S., at 6.3 percentage points Profitability Banks made less profit than they did before the crisis, while having a much larger foundation of equity • The average after-tax ROE doubled from 4.8 percent in 2009 to 9.6 percent in 2010 • The industry's profits soared by more than 130 percent, from $166 billion to $386 billion • At the same time, the industry's total equity increased by 8.6 percent, to about $4.2 trillion 2
  • 4. Exhibit 1. The Banking Industry’s Recovery Continued at a Slower Pace in 2010 Total market capitalization, Quarterly change in total market 2005–2010 ($trillions) capitalization, 2009–2010 ($trillions) CAGR1 1.3% 26.8% 2.7% −52.0% 54.9% 10.0% 4.2% −13.8% 17.0% 4.8% 10 10 8.7 8.4 8 8 7.1 0.3 7.1 6.7 0.3 -0.9 1.0 6.4 6.4 6 6 4.2 4 4 2 2 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year-end Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Year-end 2009 2010 End-of-year values Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis. Note: Percentage changes in market capitalization were calculated using complete, not rounded, figures. 1Compound annual growth rate. 3
  • 5. Exhibit 2. Banks in Emerging Markets Again Had Outstanding Performance 1 1 Total shareholder return,1 Total shareholder return by region,1 2006–2010 (%) 2009 and 2010 (%) −1.9 5.3 7.9 Asia-Pacific3 33.9 47.1 50.3 39.0 9.3 North America4 25.1 21.5 23.8 28.9 15.2 15.0 −9.0 6.0 Western Europe5 21.9 2.3 52.7 22.5 Latin America6 8.5 105.0 Central and 18.4 4.8 Eastern Europe7 100.0 -43.3 15.2 -53.2 Middle East8 4.3 3.6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Percentage of global Banking industry All-industry average2 2010 2009 banking market capitalization, 2010 Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis. Note: TSRs were calculated after conversion to U.S. dollars. 1TSR consists of capital gains and free-cash-flow yields. 2Weighted by market capitalization. 3Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Thailand. 4U.S. and Canada. 5EU-15 countries plus Norway and Switzerland. 6Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. 7Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, and Turkey. 8Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Abu Dhabi and Dubai). 4
  • 6. Exhibit 3. The Banking Industry’s TSR Fell Well Below the All- Industry Average 1 1 Total shareholder return,1 Total shareholder return,1 2006–2010 per year (%) 2010 (%) Basic materials 16.1 25.3 -61.5 Consumer goods 9.1 21.8 −15.5 Telecommunications 8.4 13.2 −0.4 Oil and gas 7.9 13.5 −27.4 Utilities 6.9 1.0 −14.7 Industrials 6.6 23.5 −16.4 Technology 4.8 13.3 −49.7 Consumer services 4.4 21.6 −8.5 Health care 3.5 5.0 −16.5 Banking −1.9 6.0 −41.1 All-industry average2 5.3 15.0 −24.1 Change, in percentage points, from 2009 TSR Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis. Note: All TSRs were calculated after conversion to U.S. dollars based on the respective Thomson Reuters Datastream global industry index (weighted by market capitalization). The TSR for the banking industry was based on Thomson Reuters Datastream global banking and financial-services indexes. 1TSR consists of capital gains and free-cash-flow yields. 2Weighted by market capitalization. 5
  • 7. Exhibit 4. All but Three Major Markets Had Negative TSRs in 2010 1 1 Total shareholder return,1 Total shareholder return,1 2006–2010 per year (%) 2010 (%) Canada 6.4 11.1 −49.7 Australia 3.2 −3.8 −65.2 Spain −4.2 −24.5 −76.1 U.S. −6.5 7.8 −15.7 U.K. −7.2 8.3 −21.5 France −8.5 −10.5 −84.9 Switzerland −10.0 −5.9 −39.4 Germany −10.5 −4.5 −42.0 Italy −11.3 −24.3 −59.1 Japan −22.8 −3.8 +14.2 Change, in percentage points, from 2009 TSR Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis. Note: All TSRs were calculated in local currencies. 1TSR consists of capital gains and free-cash-flow yields. 6
  • 8. Exhibit 5. Banks That Were Based in—or Focused on— Emerging Markets Were Prominent Market capitalization ($billions) 400 Top 10 Commonwealth Bank of Australia (+1) Mitsubishi UFJ (+1) BNP Paribas (-6) Royal Bank of Canada (-3) Sberbank (+2) 300 ICBC (±0) Lloyds Banking Group (+8) China Construction Bank (±0) Westpac Banking (-2) HSBC (±0) Banco Bradesco (+1) JPMorgan Chase (±0) The Toronto-Dominion Bank (+3) Wells Fargo (+1) Standard Chartered Bank (+8) 200 UBS (±0) Bank of China (-1) Citigroup (+3) ANZ (+3) Bank of Nova Scotia2 (+9) Banco do Brasil2 (+11) Agricultural Bank of China2,3 National Australia Bank (+2) 100 Bank of America (-1) US Bancorp2 (+10) Itaú Unibanco (+1) American Express2 (+4) Banco Santander (-4) Bank of Communications (-12) Goldman Sachs (±0) 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Rank by market capitalization1 Market capitalization of the top 30 banks in 2007 Market capitalization of the top 30 banks in 2010 Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis. Note: All market capitalizations are based on figures in U.S. dollars. 1Numbers in parentheses indicate change in rank since December 31, 2009. 2Represents a new entry. 3IPO on July 15, 2010. 7
  • 9. Exhibit 6. For the First Time Since the Crisis Began, All Major Banking Markets Were Profitable Most profitable banking sectors and universal 1,2 1,2 After-tax ROE, 2006−20101,2 (%) banks, 2010 after-tax ROE1,2 (%) Switzerland Switzerland 16.0 16.3 UBS 30 Canada Canada 15.5 19.7 CIBC Australia Spain Commonwealth Bank Australia 15.3 18.6 of Australia 20 U.S. France Spain 11.3 13.5 BBVA Germany U.S. 8.7 12.2 US Bancorp Japan 10 U.K. France 8.3 10.9 BNP Paribas Italy Germany 7.0 7.2 Deutsche Bank 0 Japan 6.8 12.8 Mizuho Financial Group 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 U.K. 6.5 13.8 Standard Chartered Bank -10 Italy 3.5 6.2 Mediobanca Country average3 -50 Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Bloomberg; BCG analysis. Note: When data were unavailable for 2010, calculations were based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts. 1ROE was calculated based on average equity. 2Includes only banks with market capitalizations above $5 billion in the ten major developed markets. 3Average of all banks. 8
  • 10. Exhibit 7. Bank Profits Soared and the Industry's ROE Doubled ROE1 (%) 1 Equity2 (billions) 2 17.8 22.0% -4.2% 24.5% 8.6% 14.8 4,161 3,832 3,213 3,078 9.6 2,634 3.9 4.8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 After-tax profit2 ($billions) 2 1.9% -71.5% 35.3% 131.8% 424 432 386 166 123 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Bloomberg; BCG analysis. Note: When data were unavailable for 2010, calculations were based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts. To meet the data requirements of this performance analysis, a subset of the full market sample was used—378 banks instead of 653. 1ROE = after-tax return on average equity. 2Percentage changes are based on complete, not rounded, figures. 9
  • 11. Exhibit 8. Most of the Top-Performing Large-Caps Were Universal Banks Top ten large-cap performers 1 1 RTSR,1 2010 (%) RTSR,1 2006–2010 (%) Sberbank 12.6 Citigroup 22.6 State Bank of India 10.9 ICICI Bank 20.9 Blackrock 10.6 RBS 15.6 Standard Chartered Bank 7.1 State Bank of India 14.5 Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Banco do Brasil 6.7 12.6 Group Commonwealth Bank 4.3 Lloyds Banking Group 12.0 of Australia China Merchants Bank 3.7 Banco do Brasil 7.9 Goldman Sachs 3.5 Banco Bradesco 5.9 Bank of Nova Scotia 2.0 ANZ 4.8 The Toronto-Dominion Bank 1.0 Hang Seng Bank 3.7 Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis. Note: The sample consists of the 50 largest banks by market capitalization as of December 31, 2010, that had a five-year capital-market history. Banking companies from the Middle East were excluded from this analysis because of the lack of market indexes. All TSRs were calculated in local currencies. 1Relative total shareholder return (RTSR) adjusts TSR for local market influences. 10
  • 12. Exhibit 9. Banks from Emerging Markets Were Prevalent among Top Mid-Caps Top ten mid-cap performers 1 1 RTSR,1 2010 (%) RTSR,1 2006–2010 (%) Axis Bank 18.6 Grupo Aval 57.1 CIMB Group 11.8 Fifth Third Bank 29.6 T. Rowe Price 11.1 Ameriprise Financial 29.2 HDFC Bank 10.1 HDFC Bank 26.6 T. Garanti Bankasi 9.5 Axis Bank 25.7 HDFC2 8.9 HDFC2 25.5 Grupo Aval 7.6 SunTrust Banks 25.0 PKO Bank Polski 7.2 Banco de Chile 21.1 Bank Mandiri 6.9 DnB NOR 18.1 The Siam Commercial Bank 6.0 Grupo Financiero Inbursa 15.5 Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis. Note: The sample consists of the banks ranked 51 to 100 by market capitalization as of December 31, 2010, that had a five-year capital-market history. Banking companies from the Middle East were excluded from this analysis because of the lack of market indexes. All TSRs were calculated in local currencies. 1Relative total shareholder return (RTSR) adjusts TSR for local market influences. 2Housing Development Finance Corporation. 11
  • 13. For Further Contact To arrange an interview with the authors of BCG’s study of value creation in banking, please contact Eric Gregoire at +1 617 850 3783 or gregoire.eric@bcg.com. About The Boston Consulting Group The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the world’s leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients in all sectors and regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their businesses. Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable competitive advantage, build more capable organizations, and secure lasting results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with 71 offices in 41 countries. For more information, please visit www.bcg.com. 12