Bigfoot, Goldilocks, Moonshots

Bigfoot, Goldilocks, and Moonshots:
A Report From the Frontiers of Personalized Learning

Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director November 7th, 2012

My frame of reference
Motivations:
Private sector:
• Increased access to
• Strategy and management
opportunity
consultant
• Hard problems
• Software entrepreneur
• Impatient actors
• MBA • Enlightened self interest

Nonprofit sector:
• Consultant to National Park
Service, charter schools, and
health services
• Foundation program officer –
innovative technology and
delivery in postsecondary ed

© 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

In the end, the American dream is not a sprint,
or even a marathon, but a relay. Our families
don’t always cross the finish line in the span
of one generation. But each generation
passes on to the next the fruits of their labor.

Julian Castro
Mayor, San Antonio


Education is the pathway to opportunity in
the U.S.
Intergenerational correlation between parent and children‟s income,
by transmission channel 100%

12-39%
1-28%

3%
5%
8%

14%
30%

Education Race of Health State of Female- Financial Unexplained Total inter-
of parents head of status of residence headed assets (e.g., generational
household parents household motivation, correlation =
social 0.431
networks, (1.0 would
community, be perfectly
norms) correlated)

Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”

Higher education is not equitably distributed
Bachelor‟s Degree attainment by age 24

Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 –
2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009. © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

Economic competitiveness argues for more
education as well

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and
Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

Degree attainment is flat
% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007)
55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)

1 U.S. (39%) Canada (45%) Canada (53%) Canada (56%) Canada (48%)

2 Canada (39%) Japan (41%) Japan (46%) Korea (56%) Japan (41%)

3 N.Z. (35%) U.S. (40%) Finland (43%) Japan (54%) N.Z. (41%)

4 Finland (28%) N.Z. (39%) U.S. (42%) N.Z. (47%) U.S. (40%)

5 Australia (27%) Finland (36%) N.Z. (41%) Ireland (44%) Finland (36%)

6 Norway (26%) Australia (32%) Korea (40%) Norway (43%) Korea (35%)

7 Sweden (26%) Norway (31%) Norway (36%) France (41%) Norway (34%)

8 Neth. (26%) U.K. (31%) Belgium (36%) Belgium (41%) Australia (34%)

9 Switz. (26%) Denmark (30%) Iceland (35%) Australia (41%) Ireland (312)

10 U.K. (25%) Neth. (30%) Ireland (34%) U.S. (40%) Denmark (32%)

11 Denmark (24%) Switz. (30%) Denmark (34%) Denmark (40%) Belgium (32%)

12 Japan (24%) Sweden (29%) Australia (34%) Sweden (40%) U.K. (32%)

13 Germany (23%) Belgium (28%) Switz. (34%) Finland (39%) Switz. (31%)

14 Iceland (23%) Iceland (28%) U.K. (32%) Spain (39%) Sweden (31%)

15 Belgium (22%) Germany (25%) Spain (32%) U.K. (37%) Neth. (31%)

Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported) © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |7

Three challenges for the next decade

Access Quality
Enrollment caps
Low completion rates
Course availability
Unclear learning
“Non-traditional” new outcomes
normal

Costs
Tuition increasing 3%
over inflation
State budget cuts
Limited student ability
to pay


We have made impressive strides in improving
college access…
Fall FTE (Full Time Equivalent) Enrollment by Sector, 1987-2009
Total %
Period % Change
Change
1987-1993 1993-2001 2001-2009 1987-2009
15M

29% 49% 184% 447%
For-profit

10% 9% 19% 43%

10
Private 4 year

11% 4% 18% 37%

Public 4 year
5

27% 5% 22% 62%
Public 2 year

0
87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database

…but enrollment growth may be reversing

Five Reasons College
Enrollments Might Be Dropping
Survey offers dire picture of October 24, 2012 Richard Vedder
state's two-year colleges
August 29, 2012 Carla Rivera …state by state, enrollments appear to be down,
mostly at community colleges and at some four-
year schools as well. In Ohio, preliminary
More than 470,000 community college students numbers from the Board of Regents of the
are beginning the fall semester on waiting lists, University System of Ohio show a 5.9 percent
unable to get into the courses they need, decline, and the drop-off at one community
according to a survey of California's two-year college (Hocking) was so precipitous (more than
colleges that captures a system struggling amid 20 percent) that it had to dismiss staff. In other
severe budget cuts…. Midwest states such as Michigan and
Wisconsin, numbers at some institutions have
fallen as well. In Arizona, one large Tucson-
area community college (Pima) shows a decline
of 11 percent...

Source: L.A. Times; Washington Monthly © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

“Hidden capacity constraints” extend beyond
formal enrollment caps
Percent of Community College Student Unable to Enroll in One or More
Courses Because Full

20 and 21 Year Old Students 45

California Students 47

Latino Students 55

Community College Students 32

Source: Community College Student Survey, Pearson Foundation/Harris Interactive,
Field dates: September 27th through November 4th, 2010 © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

Meanwhile, student demographics are
increasingly nontraditional
“Traditional”
• Enter college
directly after high
school 25%
• Enroll fulltime “Non-traditional”
• Financially • Financially
dependent on independent
their parents 75% (>50%)
• Have dependents
of their own (27%)
• Work full time
(38%)
• Enroll part time
(49%)
Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).

Too few students are graduating

Percentage of students expecting to earn credentials
who had earned a credential within five years

100%
Bachelor's
80% 73%
Associate's
61%
60% 55%
53% Certificate

40% 38%

20%

0%
Total Private Public 4- Private Public 2-
not-for- year for-profit year
profit

Source: NELS 1988

Developmental education is one of the
drivers of low completion rates
100
90 17% Never enroll
80
What happens to students
70
who test 3 levels below
60
college level math?
50
40 83%
30 66%
20
10 17%
0 10%
Referred Enroll, don't Complete Pass gatekeeper
complete sequence

SOURCE: Bailey, et al. Referral, enrollment, and completion in developmental education
sequences in community colleges. CCRC (2009). © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

What students are actually learning is
being questioned

45 percent of students
“demonstrated no
significant gains in critical
thinking, analytical
reasoning, and written
communications during
the first two years of
college”


Employers give recent graduates decidedly
low marks on essential learning outcomes
46%
Global Knowledge 18%

42%
Self-direction 23%

37%
Writing 26%

31%
Critical Thinking 22% Not well prepared
Very well prepared
23%
Oral Communication 30%

19%
Ethical Judgment 38%

17%
Teamwork 39%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Source: AAC&U © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

The public story on tuition growth is not
pretty

Source: New York Times

States are reducing per student funding to
colleges

Source: TIME: Degrees of Difficulty © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
http://nation.time.com/2012/10/18/degrees-of-difficulty/?pcd=teaser

The reality is cost per FTE at publics have
only increased modestly
Per FTE Expenditures by Sector,
Indexed and Inflation-Adjusted, 1999-2009 Total %
Change
1.5 1999-2009

For-profit 32%

1.3

Private 4 year 17%

Public 4 year 6%
Public 2 year 1%
1.0

0.8
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Note: All figures are real and adjusted for inflation
The sub-set of private research institutions experienced even larger growth in spending per FTE of 29% over this period
Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

The effect on students is inescapable

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as quoted in Bill Bowen’s Tanner Lectures

Meet Brianna

 Started technical college with AP credit in chemistry
and a clear goal: to become a veterinarian
 Ambition: 2-year associates degree
 Her bet on finishing college? 100%

 Estimated cost of attendance: ~$15,000
 Expected family contribution: $2,500
• Mom and Dad paid it
 Total aid package (including loans): $8,000
 Unmet need: $4,500
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS; photo CC-BY/NC (Joy Banwejee)

Brianna Took 12 Credits and Worked 30
Hours/Week

Schedule:
5:30 am Wake up
6:30 am Commute to school
7:30 am – 11:00 pm Attend class, drive to work
11:00 am – 1:00 pm Work job #1, drive to school
1:30 pm – 5:30 pm Attend class, drive to work
6:00 pm – 11:30 pm Work job #2, drive home
12:00 am Take muscle relaxant and try
to sleep

Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS

Brianna‟s College Experience

 “More than a couple of times, I fell asleep in my 7:30
am class…I'd get there and I'm trying to stay awake
and I'm doing the „head-bob‟ and before you know it
my head is in my book …and every once in awhile you
get a wake-up with a puddle of drool.”

 At the end of her first term:
• Course #1: D
• Course #2: C
• Course #3: D
• Course #4: Withdrew
• CUMULATIVE GPA: 0.750


What‟s it like to be dismissed?
“It was kinda…it was almost kinda like a relief cause it‟s
like, you know, “Wow! This is, you know, it‟s over,” but
then again, it was, it was pretty stressful cause it was
like, “You know, I went through all this work, and I
accomplished nothing. I failed.” It was kinda a little bit of
both, and it actually hit me pretty hard cause I was just
crushed. I was like, „Wow! I‟m never gonna get
anywhere. I‟ve got, you know, pretty much no hope for
the future‟...

The bottom is scary, and you just don‟t really feel like
you‟re really worth anything, and you‟re trying to get
back on your feet; and you just beat yourself up cause
it‟s like, you know…”

How ready are traditional institutions to navigate
the new reality?

“In the view of many college and university
presidents, the three main factors in higher
education—cost, quality, and access—exist in
what we call an iron triangle. These factors are
linked in an unbreakable reciprocal
relationship, such that any change in one will
inevitably impact the others.”
- Public Agenda research on opinions
of higher education presidents

Source: The Iron Triangle: College Presidents Talk About Costs, Access, and Quality, Public Agenda, October 2008.

Or said another way…


Three leading innovations in
personalized learning


Bigfoot


Bigfoot = undeniably better learning
outcomes at repeatably lower costs

I have come to believe that “now is the time”—that far
greater access to the internet, improvements in
internet speed, reductions in storage costs, and other
advances have combined with changing mindsets to
suggest that online learning, in many of its
manifestations, can lead to good learning outcomes
at lower cost.

Bill Bowen
President Emeritus, Princeton University


The core idea: the two-sigma problem

Source: The 2 Sigma Problem: The Search for Methods of Group Instruction as
Effective as One-to-One Tutoring, Benjamin S. Bloom, Educational Researcher, 1984

Closing the loop on learning

“What don’t I
Learning
know?”
Feedback
Loop
Student Data

Alignment

Alignment Learning Alignment
Objectives

“How did “How do I
I do?” learn this?”
Assessment Content


Example: Carnegie Mellon Open
Learning Initiative

Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative

Example: Carnegie Mellon Open
Learning Initiative

Source: Ithaka

Example: National Center for Academic
Transformation (NCAT)
Student success (C or better)

Changing the Equation Initiative
+50%
• Redesign full developmental math
sequence based on proven model
Before redesign After redesign
• 100,000+ students at 35 community
colleges
Costs per student
• Technology partners include Pearson
MyMathLab, ALEKS, Hawkes
-30%
Learning System, etc.

Before redesign After redesign

Source: National Center for Academic Transformation 38

Example: NROC Math


Example: Arizona State University and
Knewton

The outcome: After one semester of use with over 5,000 remedial math
students at ASU, withdrawal rates dropped by 50% and pass rates went from
66% to 75%. Half the class finished 4 weeks early.

Source: ASU © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

What carries the flipped classroom
into general education?


Goldilocks


Time-to-degree tracks of “4-year” students

Per semester
credits:
4 year: >=15
5 year: 12-14
6 year: <12

Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS;

There are real costs to poor advising
and degree planning
Community college educational costs by course type

Courses contributing
to a degree taken by
Courses taken by completers*
non-completers*
33
46

14
Excess courses taken
by completers* 7
beyond minimum
Courses failed/withdrawn
by completers*

* Completers defined as students seeking a degree who earned a certificate, Associate’s, or Bachelor’s degree
within 6 years of enrolling. © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Source: Forthcoming report “The Institutional Costs of Student Attrition” by Delta Cost Project, 2012, and
“Winning by Degrees” by McKinsey & Company, 2010

Example: ASU‟s eAdvisor


Structured pathways to graduation


Just in Time Enrollment Management


Student risk prediction and alerts
1. Finances (Scholarship
renewal, to do’s, SAP)
2. Calculated Index (HS
GPA, Test Scores)
3. Academic Status Report
4. eAdvisor (off Track)
5. My ASU Usage
(engagement compared
to their cohort)
6. GPA
7. Probation
8. Transcripts
Sent (excluding
medical, law
schools)
9. Enrollment
Holds


Impact on student progress

2007 Status 2008 Status 2009 Status
7% 7%
22%
39% 13%
46%
39%
47% 2010 Status
1.2% 80% 0.1% on
track by
5.8% override

Completed

On Track

Off Track 91%

On track by override


Model Program Pathway Design
 Program learning goals clearly defined and aligned
with outcome requirements
 Program pathways well structured and prescribed
 Students’ progress toward program requirements
closely monitored; timely feedback provided
 “On-ramps” help students choose a program of study
 Incentives for students to enter and complete
programs
 Strong alignment with high school and ABE

Source: Davis Jenkins, Community College Research Center © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

WICHE PAR Framework

For new students:
 Each concurrent enrollment lowers chance of
passing ~10%
 Each prior term withdrawal reduces passing by
~50%
 Each additional course completed increases
likelihood of remaining enrolled 13% for Associate
and 23% for Bachelor students


Moonshots


“We choose to go to the moon. We choose
to go to the moon in this decade and do the
other things, not because they are
easy, but because they are hard.”

President John F. Kennedy, September
12, 1962, at Rice University, Houston, Texas


…provide high-quality, affordable education at scale…

“We choose to go to the moon. We choose
to go to the moon in this decade and do the
other things, not because they are
easy, but because they are hard.”

President John F. Kennedy, September
12, 1962, at Rice University, Houston, Texas


Breakthrough delivery models

Target Performance Metrics

• Completion Rate: 50% Associate’s completion
rate within three years for Pell Grant-eligible
students; 75% within six years for Bachelor’s

• Price and Cost: $5,000 or less per year in student
price and institutional costs

• Scale: 5,000 additional students by year 5 with
path to 50,000

• Quality: Clear definition and monitoring process


Examples of innovators pursuing high-
quality, affordable degree programs


Target.com model?


What are common features of these
models?
 Prior learning assessment
 Competency-based progression
 Diagnostics assessment and adaptive learning
 Badges, interim milestones, and motivational
science
 Connective media and peer-to-peer learning
 Learning analytics and targeting scarce faculty and
support resources
 Online/blended delivery


A parting challenge
Education
(Access +
Quality +
Completion)

Today

Costs


The great risk
Education
(Access +
Quality +
Completion)

Today

Tomorrow

Costs


The great opportunity
Education
(Access +
Quality +
Completion)
Tomorrow

Today

Tomorrow

Costs


What will it take?

• Business model innovation AND learning model
innovation
• Promoters of innovation AND protectors of quality
• Reimagining instructional model AND deep faculty
engagement
• High technology AND high touch
• Design AND scaling
• Traditional institutions AND breakthrough models


Thank You
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the
strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have
done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually
in the arena…who at the best knows in the end the triumph of
high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails
while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those
cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

Teddy Roosevelt, April 23, 1910

Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director
Education – Postsecondary Success

josh.jarrett@gatesfoundation.org
www.gatesfoundation.org

Bigfoot, Goldilocks, Moonshots

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