1. WHY IS DEVELOPING A NEW MINE
SO DIFFICULT?
John P. Sykes
Centre for Exploration Targeting
Provisional PhD Candidate, Department of
Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin Graduate
School of Business
Adjunct Research Fellow, Department of
Geology & Geography, University of Western
Australia
Email: johnpaul.sykes@curtin.postgrad.edu.au

2. Abstract
“Globally there have been problems in bringing new mine capacity on stream.
With little new greenfields exploration taking place at this time, the pipeline of
high-quality mine projects is not being replenished.
The problem for the mining industry is that minerals exploration takes place
over long timescales, however, “success” is judged along much shorter
timescales. Addressing this paradox is a challenge for all in minerals
exploration management.
This study has sought to address this topic by building on the author’s tacit
knowledge, gained through experience in the mining industry, combined with
a review of the business management and strategy literature.
Emergent from this research are multiple ways for examining mining industry
problems and a new approach to developing high-level strategies for
facilitating minerals exploration.”
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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3. Contents
• Background: a ‘discovery constrained’ mining industry
• A little bit on research philosophy & methodology
• Wasting assets & limited exploration search space
• Beginning with the end in mind
• Differing incentives of industry actors
• Focus on Horizon 2
• Sustainable mining?
• Changing value drivers with development stage
• Conclusions and further research
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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4. Section 1
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
Background: a ‘discovery
constrained’ mining industry
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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5. Commodity prices at 50+ year highs
Figure 1. Cumulative Changes in Prices
Relative to the Long-Run Trend
Commodity
Cumulative change in price
from 1950
Copper
24.04%
Nickel
39.00%
Chromium
206.01%
Iron Ore
34.80%
Manganese
77.11%
Potash
26.72%
Gold
206.05%
Silver
123.68%
Chart: Jacks (2013)
Metal and mineral commodities with half century
real price highs selected from Jacks (2013)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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6. Growing resources indicates a
development problem?
Figure 2. Years of reserves until depletion
based on current mine production
Commodity
Years until depletion
Copper
Nickel
Chromium
Iron Ore
Manganese
Potash
Gold
Silver
40.0 years
35.7 years
>19.2 years
56.7 years
39.4 years
279.4 years
19.3 years
22.5 years
Calculations based on USGS 2013 estimates of
global reserves and mine production, from
Edelstein (2013), Kuck (2013), Papp (2013), Tuck
(2013), Corathers (2013), Jasinski (2013) and George
(2013a, 2013b)
“…the primary factors that govern whether a given project is developed will be social,
economic, and environmental in nature.”
- Mudd, Weng, & Jowitt, 2013
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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7. Resources don’t have to be economic!
Substantial portions of Australian mineral resources may not be economic “economic
under current or
immediately foreseeable circumstances” and may “provide a potentially misleading
perspective on the future health of Australia’s precious and base metals mining industry”
- Cairns, Hronsky, and Schodde, 2010
Consideration of
mining, processing,
metallurgical,
economic,
marketing, legal,
environmental,
infrastructure,
social and
government factors
(the “modifying
factors”)
PROVEN
RESERVE
PROBABLE
RESERVE
“reasonable
prospects for
eventual economic
extraction”
- JORC Code, 2012
MEASURED
RESOURCE
INDICATED
RESOURCE
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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Mineral resource:
15 October 2013
INFERRED
RESOURCE

8. Discovery problem caused by time
paradox
“…disconnect between the very short term focus of the risk capital market compared to the
longer term gestation period required for well-conceived greenfields exploration
programmes…”
- Cairns, Hronsky, and Schodde, 2010
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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9. Section 2
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
A little bit on research
philosophy & methodology
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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10. Minerals, economics and consultancy
INDUSTRY
Observe
Interpret
Disaggregate
Focus
Theorise
MINERAL
ECONOMICS
Explicit knowledge,
Theory, Broad?
Objectivity?
ACADEMIA
Geology, Engineering,
Science, Technical
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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Tacit knowledge,
Practice, Results,
Focus?
Subjectivity?
15 October 2013
Classical economics,
Microeconomics, Decision
Theory, Finance, Concept
Sources: Frodeman (1995), Maxwell & Guj (2013)

11. Section 3
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
Wasting assets & limited
exploration search space
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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12. Wasting assets and constant renewal
“Earth rise” from Apollo 11
Image: The Guardian/NASA
Old Geevor tin mine, Cornwall, UK,
operated late 18th century to 1990
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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13. Limited search space, infinite concepts
Sources:
Hronsky &
Wellborn
(2013),
Hronsky
(2009)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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14. Section 4
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
Beginning with the end in mind
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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15. Overcoming “active inertia”
Source: Sull (1999)
Habit 2:
“Begin with the
End in Mind”
- Stephen R. Covey
NB: Stephen Covey does not endorse this presentation.
However, I do endorse his book!
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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Source: www.stephencovey.com
Image: www.amazon.com

16. Life-cycle of a mine project
DEVELOPMENT MINING
EXPLORATION
Value
High Risk – High
Potential
Lowered risk
Full Value
Speculators Leave
Speculation
Orphan Period
Institutional
Investment
Concept
Exploration
Discovery
Economics
Time
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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Development
Mining
Source:
Cook
(2010)

17. What makes a successful mine
project?
“Mineable”
“Undevelopable”
(usually get stuck in the
economics)
Success
“Unmineable”
(usually discovered at
the production stage)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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“Undiscoverable”
(we tend not to
find these!)

18. Section 5
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
Differing incentives of industry
actors
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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19. McKinsey’s 3 Horizons of Growth
Source: Coley (2009),
Baghai, Coley, and
White (1999)
Profit
Horizon 3
Create viable options
Horizon 2
Build emerging businesses
Horizon 1
Extend and defend core businesses
Time (years)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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20. Differing risk horizons?
Source: Trench &
Packey (2012)
Majors better at
handling this?
Technical Risk
Juniors better at
handling this?
Risk
Corporate Risk
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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21. The development “space” appears
to be smaller
More “undevelopable”
projects
(many getting stuck in the
economics)
“Mineable”
“Undiscoverable”
(we tend not to find
these anyway)
Less success?
Fewer “Unmineable” projects
(only the best make it into production)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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22. Development triangle for global
copper projects
Raw
Prospects &
Early
Exploration:
2,759 projects
Advanced
Exploration:
633 projects
PreFeasibility: 72
Feasibility: 84
projects
projects
Development:
63 projects
Data: Infomine (2013)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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23. Section 6
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
Focus on Horizon 2
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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24. Life cycle “bow-tie” for global
copper mines & projects
Developmen
t: 63
projects
Feasibility:
72 projects
Pre- Feasibility:
84 projects
Advanced
Exploration: 633
projects
Raw Prospects & Early
Exploration: 2,759 projects
Development
“niche” point
(“Barrier to entry”)
Production &
Recently
Closed: 566
mines
Data: Infomine (2013), Ali (2010)
& Manning (1998)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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Long Closed:
100,000s
mines?

25. Development criteria narrowing the
exploration search space
Miners looking to buy advanced projects should
seek projects in the “developable” space that
plots onto the “mineable” space.
Explorationists should
target “developable”
space plotting onto
exploration search space
3D Truncated Cones
courtesy of Nova Scotia
Learning Resources and
Technology Resources
(2013)
Wide
Exploration
Search Space
Narrow
“Developable”
Space
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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Wide “Mineable”
Space

26. Section 7
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
Sustainable mining?
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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27. Modern “Wonders of the World”?
“…meeting the needs of
the present without
compromising the
ability of future
generations to meet
their own needs…”
- World Commission on Environment &
Development (1987)
Source:
Martin &
Morrison
(2012)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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28. A successful mine project is a
sustainable one?
“Undevelopable”
(usually get stuck in
the economics)
“Unsustainable”
(problems
significant postproduction)
Success
“Unexplorable”
(we tend not to
find these)
“Unmineable”
(usually discovered at
the production stage)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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29. Section 8
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
Changing value drivers with
development stage
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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30. Research, Development, Market
Exploration
Development
Mining
Research
Development
Market
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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31. Global development competiveness
Source: Schwab
(2013)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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32. A development stage based profile
Source: Schwab (2013)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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33. “Active
waiting” as a
mine
exploration
strategy
Source: Sull (2005)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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34. Section 9
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
Conclusions and further
research
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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35. De-risking as value drivers
Source: Trench &
Packey (2012)
Majors better at
handling this?
Technical Risk
Juniors better at
handling this?
Risk
Corporate Risk
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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36. Uncertainty & risk value drivers
Sources: Hronsky & Wellborn (2013), Guj (2013)
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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37. Life-cycle of a mine project
DEVELOPMENT MINING
EXPLORATION
Value
High Risk – High
Potential
Lowered risk
Full Value
Speculators Leave
Speculation
Orphan Period
Uncertainty
driven
Risk
driven
Institutional
Investment
Concept
Exploration
Discovery
Economics
Time
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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Development
Mining
Source:
Cook
(2010)

38. Conclusions
• Why are mine projects so difficult?
• Finiteness, time & methodological paradoxes
• Moving into new “search space” – concept,
proactivity, “Beginning with the End in Mind”
• Development stages – “3 Horizons of Growth”
• Problems with “Horizon 2” – development
• Dealing with sustainability development
• Both conceptual & analytical approaches suggest
the same framework
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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39. BUT (or “further research”)
• What are all the factors that affect mine projects?
• How do we deal with time (again)?
• How do we go from “concept” to the “real world”?
“Be a philosopher; but, amidst all your
philosophy, be still a man”
– David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, 1748
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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40. Acknowledgements
• Curtin International Postgraduate Research Scholarship
• Centre for Exploration Targeting, Curtin Graduate School of
Business & University of Western Australia
• Professors Daniel Packey, Allan Trench, Campbell
McCuaig, Jon Hronsky, Richard Schodde & Pietro Guj
• Fellow PhD students Jon Bell & Atul Chandra
• Mike Gershon (friend/amateur philosopher) & Kataryna
Sykes (wife/editor)
The author respectfully acknowledges the Indigenous
Elders, custodians, their descendants and kin of this
land past and present.
Why is developing a new mine so difficult?
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