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'Shirt Sleeve' Cost Modelling - June 2013 - Greenfields Research / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
1.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 RESOURCE COST AND CAPITAL 602 “SHIRT-SLEEVE” COST MODELLING John P. Sykes Director, Greenfields Research Provisional PhD Candidate, Centre for Exploration Targeting & Curtin Graduate School of Business john.sykes@greenfieldsresearch.com johnpaul.sykes@postgrad.curtin.edu.au
2.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 “Shirt-sleeve” cost modelling: Contents 1 What is a “Shirt-sleeve” approach? 2 Precision and accuracy in mine costs 3 Case studies in “shirt-sleeve” mine cost estimating
3.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 602 Resource Cost & Capital: “Shirt-sleeve” costs What is a “Shirt-sleeve” approach? Section 1 Section 2 Section 3
4.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 “Shirt-sleeve” approach shirt-sleeve [shurt-sleev] • adjective 1. not wearing a jacket; informally dressed: a shirt-sleeve mob. 2. warm enough to live or work in without wearing a jacket or coat: shirt- sleeve weather in November. 3. simple, plain, and informal; direct and straightforward in approach, manner, etc.: shirt-sleeve diplomacy. “Shirt-Sleeve Approach to Long Range Plans” by R.E. Linneman & J.D. Kennell, Harvard Business Review, March 1977 Image: Shutterstock, Source: dictionary.com
5.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 Garbage In, Garbage Out (GIGO) • A model is only as good as the data you put in. • Thus: • Focus of modelling should be on data and… • If you only have basic data, you only need a basic model !
6.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 “Shirt-sleeve” cost modelling • Simple • Flexible • Cost-effective • Labour-effective • Not data intensive Image: Shutterstock Ideal for: • Early “idea” testing – principles & paradigms • Asset comparison & benchmarking • Macro-economic trend analysis
7.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 Not a “short cut” • Not about cutting corners • About not over-resourcing at early stages • By understanding the “principles” of costs • Taking advantage that most learning occurs at the earliest stages • To extend the metaphor, it is not about an alternate shorter route, but moving as far down the right road as possible, as efficiently as possible.
8.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 602 Resource Cost & Capital: “Shirt-sleeve” costs Precision and accuracy in mine costs Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 12th September 2012 Metal Pages Electronic Metals (Guangzhou, China) Slide 8 of 36
9.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 Accuracy & Precision Inaccurate Imprecise Accurate Imprecise Accurate Precise Inaccurate Precise
10.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 Cost estimates not that precise… • Mine cost estimates usually aren’t very “precise”: • Rarely is one project’s cost estimate comparable to another project’s estimate due to differing underlying assumptions. • Rarely can you re-produce the costs yourself given the underlying data. Company Project Study Year X Rate Tin Price Consolidated Tin Mines Mt Garnet Scoping 2010 ? $18,000 Kasbah Resources Achmmach PFS 2012 1.00 $21,961 Stellar Resources Heemskirk Scoping 2011 1.00 $25,000 Venture Minerals Mt. Lindsay PFS 2011 0.90 $25,400 Source: Company websites
11.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 …nor that accurate! • Mine cost estimates usually aren’t very “accurate” either. • Nor indeed are the “accuracies” that “precise”. • Thus unless you have very detailed, proprietary data the level of modelling & benchmarking you can do is limited. • Focusing on the few key components of costs will tell you a great deal. Source: Bullock, Accuracy of feasibility study evaluations would improve accountability, Apr 2011, Mining Engineering, p78-85
12.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 602 Resource Cost & Capital: “Shirt-sleeve” costs Case studies in “shirt-sleeve” mine cost estimating Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 12th September 2012 Metal Pages Electronic Metals (Guangzhou, China) Slide 12 of
13.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 Case Studies • Tin mine costs – the case study – Fairly advanced analysis to understand the future of tin prices and supply type – Analysis comparing future sources (including projects) of tin supply • Rare earth mine costs – the test! – More basic analysis to understand the future of rare earths mining – How should rare earth mine projects be compared? • Both case studies work from first principles and raise fundamental questions about mine costs – by-products, capital costs etc
14.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 “Shirt-sleeve” cost modelling: Conclusions 1 “Shirt-sleeve” cost modelling is a simple, principal based way of understanding mine costs 2 It focusing on aligning the level of analysis with the level of precision and accuracy in mine costs at early stages of investigation 3 It has uses in comparing operations, understanding cost trends and at the early stages of more detailed investigations
15.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 References • R.E. Linneman & J.D. Kennell, “Shirt-Sleeve Approach to Long Range Plans”, Harvard Business Review, March 1977 • Consolidated Tin Mines, Scoping Study Confirms Commercial Potential of Mt Garnet Tin Project, 5 July 2010, http://www.csdtin.com.au/announcements/asx-releases • Kasbah Resources, Positive Pre-Feasibility Study for Achmmach, 31 May 2012, http://www.kasbahresources.com/index.php/investor-centre/asx- releases?view=category&id=4&start=20 • Stellar Resources, Scoping Study Green Light for Heemskirk Tin Project, http://www.stellarresources.com.au/images/ASX_Announcements/2011/11 0066SRL.pdf • Venture Minerals, Pre-Feasibility Study Highlights World Class Potential of Mt Lindsay Tin/Tungsten Project, 1 March 2011, http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110301/pdf/41x4mwr6t6160g.pdf • R. Bullock, Accuracy of feasibility study evaluations would improve accountability, Mining Engineering, Apr 2011, p78-85
16.
© Greenfields Research Ltd
2013 Contact details John P. Sykes MSci (Hons) MSc ARSM MAusIMM FGS Director, Greenfields Research Ltd (UK) Provisional PhD Candidate, Centre for Exploration Targeting & Curtin Graduate School of Business Australia Mobile: +61 448 658 656 Australia Office: +61 8 9467 1860 Email: john.sykes@greenfieldsresearch.com Web: www.greenfieldsresearch.com Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnpsykes
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