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Rising food prices and implications for information needs,[object Object],Nicholas Minot (IFPRI),[object Object],Presented at the seminar,[object Object],“Food security information systems”,[object Object],31 January 2011 ,[object Object],Imperial Royale Hotel, Kampala,[object Object]
Rising food prices on international markets,[object Object]
Food prices in Ugandan markets: mixed trends,[object Object],Matoka prices rising & higher than usual,[object Object],Maize price rising but normal (as of November),[object Object],Cassava price stable and normal (as of November),[object Object],Source: FEWS-NET, 2011.,[object Object]
Food security – Definition ,[object Object],“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.,[object Object],Source: World Food Summit Plan of Action, Rome, 1996,[object Object]
Food security - Conceptual framework,[object Object],Labor, mgt,[object Object],Land,[object Object],Inputs,[object Object],Weather,[object Object],Population,[object Object],Preferences,[object Object],Income,[object Object],Food production,[object Object],Food demand,[object Object],International markets & trade,[object Object],Infrastructure and market efficiency,[object Object],Food prices,[object Object],Farm income,[object Object],Purchasing power of consumers,[object Object],Health,[object Object],Food intake,[object Object],Food utilization,[object Object],Sanitation,[object Object],Care practices & nutrition education,[object Object],Nutrition status,[object Object]
Food security - Policy instruments,[object Object],Research & extension,[object Object],Research, irrigation,mkt info,[object Object],Family planning,[object Object],Safety nets,[object Object],Land policy,[object Object],Roads, competition policy,[object Object],Trade policy,[object Object],Health,  sanitation, & educ.  spending,[object Object],Food aid ,[object Object],Nutrition assistance,[object Object]
Food security – Sources of instability,[object Object],Weather-related supply shocks,[object Object],Price shocks from world markets,[object Object]
Food security – Types of information needs,[object Object],Monitoring of food security indicators,[object Object],Analysis and interpretation of food security indicators,[object Object],Relationships among food security indicators,[object Object],Impact of food & nutrition policy and programmes,[object Object]
1. Monitoring food security indicators,[object Object],Food security indicators (“boxes” in conceptual framework),[object Object],Issues in monitoring,[object Object],How frequent to monitor them?,[object Object],How many commodities to cover?,[object Object],How many locations to cover?,[object Object],What level of accuracy to seek given trade-off of cost & accuracy,[object Object],Decisions are often based on:,[object Object],Importance of indicator as a measure of food security ,[object Object],Cost of collecting data,[object Object]
1. Monitoring food security indicators,[object Object],Daily or weekly monitoring,[object Object],Domestic and international food prices,[object Object],Weather,[object Object],Monthly monitoring,[object Object],International trade,[object Object],Semi-annual or annual,[object Object],Food and agricultural production,[object Object],Use of fertilizer and other inputs,[object Object],Every 5-10 years,[object Object],Food consumption, expenditure, and income,[object Object],Nutrition status at national level,[object Object],Population,[object Object]
2. Analysis & interpretation of indicators,[object Object],Why is analysis and interpretation important?,[object Object],Policy response depends on cause of the problem,[object Object],Not enough to know the trend, must understand causes behind it,[object Object],Example: Rising grain prices in Ethiopia 2006-08,[object Object],Alternative hypotheses:,[object Object],Part of inflationary trend,[object Object],Rural households consuming more grain,[object Object],Rural households storing more grain,[object Object],Traders hoarding grain to drive up price,[object Object],New safety net programme increasing demand for grain,[object Object],Increase in cross-border exports of grain,[object Object],Shortfall in production ,[object Object],Study methods,[object Object],Farm survey, trader survey, cross-border trade study, ag sector model,[object Object]
2. Analysis & interpretation of indicators,[object Object],Why is analysis and interpretation important?,[object Object],Policy response depends on cause of the problem,[object Object],Not enough to know the trend, must understand causes behind it,[object Object],Example: Rising grain prices in Ethiopia 2006-08,[object Object],Alternative hypotheses:				Findings:,[object Object],Part of inflationary trend                                              	Contributing factor,[object Object],Rural households consuming more grain                        	No evidence,[object Object],Rural households storing more grain                             	No evidence,[object Object],Traders hoarding grain to drive up price                        	No evidence,[object Object],New safety net programme increasing demand for grain  	Too small to affect,[object Object],Increase in cross-border exports of grain		Too small to affect,[object Object],Shortfall in production 				Contributing factor,[object Object],Study determined that causes were:,[object Object],Inflationary trend and shortfall in production,[object Object]
3. Relationship among food security indicators,[object Object],Relationships among indicators (black arrows in the conceptual framework),[object Object],Examples: ,[object Object],What is the effect of changes in world maize prices on domestic maize prices?,[object Object],If rains are 30% less than usual, how will this affect the rice output? ,[object Object],What is the effect of higher cassava prices on domestic production? ,[object Object],If matoke prices rise 50%, what will be the effect on food consumption and nutrition among different types of households?,[object Object],Methods,[object Object],Usually requires good data and statistical analysis,[object Object],Example 1:  Analysis of effect of world markets on domestic food prices requires 5-10 years of monthly data and time-series econometrics analysis,[object Object],Example 2:  Analysis of the effect of price changes on different types of households requires data from a national household income-expenditure survey,[object Object]
3. Relationship among food security indicators,[object Object],Sometimes findings go against conventional wisdom (CW),[object Object],CW:  “World markets affect African food prices”  ,[object Object],Data: Monthly data on world grain prices & 62 African food prices ,[object Object],Method:  Error-correction model,[object Object],Results: ,[object Object],Only 13 of 62 prices linked to world markets of same commodity,[object Object],About half of rice prices linked to international markets,[object Object],Only 10% of maize prices linked to international markets,[object Object],Explanation: Most African countries are almost self-sufficient in maize but much of rice comes from world markets,[object Object],CW:  “Farmers benefit from higher grain prices”  ,[object Object],Data:  Household survey data from numerous African countries,[object Object],Method:  Simulate impact of price change on rural households,[object Object],Results:  ,[object Object],40-60% of households are net buyers of grain & lose from higher prices ,[object Object],Benefits concentrated among larger farmers,[object Object]
4) Impact of food & nutrition policies & programs,[object Object],Impact of policy & programs (blue arrows in the conceptual framework),[object Object],Examples: ,[object Object],What is the effect of the current import tariff on maize? ,[object Object],What is the effect WFP purchases of Ugandan maize?,[object Object],What is the effect of school feeding programs in Uganda?,[object Object],Methods,[object Object],Good:  Analysis of data from one household survey,[object Object],Can establish correlation but not causation,[object Object],Better:  Analysis of panel data (2+ surveys covering same households),[object Object],Gives strong indication of causation, but selection bias: participants in programme may be different than non-participants.  ,[object Object],Best:  Randomized control trials,[object Object],Randomization ensures similarity of programme participants and non-participants so outcomes can be compared,[object Object]
Conclusions,[object Object],Food security conceptual framework helps identify information needs,[object Object],Data collection affected by cost of collecting indicators,[object Object],Four types of food security information,[object Object],Food security indicators,[object Object],Analysis and interpretation of indicators,[object Object],Relationship among indicators,[object Object],Impact of food & nutrition policies on indicators,[object Object],Trade-off between accuracy and cost,[object Object],Information needs depend on policy issues facing government,[object Object]

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