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Asia Pacific University of Technology & Innovation BM014-3-3-DMKG

BM014-3-3
Decision making

INDIVIDUAL
ASSIGNMENT
Prepared by:
Ms. Tan soon may (tp020161)

Intake Number:
UC3F1201IBM

Hand In Date:
28thsEPTEMBER 2012

Prepared for:
Ms. Sueraya binti mohamad alwie

Tan Soon May TP020161 Page | 1


Table of Contents
Non-Financial Plan.....................................................................................................................3
1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3
2.0 Demographic and Social Trends ..................................................................................... 4
3.0 Counterfeit Issues............................................................................................................ 5
4.0 Competition (Porter’s 5 Forces)...................................................................................... 6
4.1 Bargaining Power of Buyers ....................................................................................... 6
4.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers ................................................................................... 6
4.3 Threats of New Entrants .............................................................................................. 6
4.4 Threats of Substitute Products or Services .................................................................. 7
4.5 Rivalry amongst Existing Competitors ....................................................................... 7
5.0 Marketing ........................................................................................................................ 8
5.1 Product ........................................................................................................................ 8
5.2 Price............................................................................................................................. 8
5.3 Place ............................................................................................................................ 8
5.4 Promotion .................................................................................................................... 8
6.0 Environmental Issues ...................................................................................................... 9
Financial Plan...........................................................................................................................10

7.0 Plan 1 ............................................................................................................................ 10
7.1 Maximax.................................................................................................................... 10
7.2 Maximin .................................................................................................................... 10
7.3 Minimax Regret......................................................................................................... 11
7.4 Hurwicz ..................................................................................................................... 11
7.5 Expected Opportunity Loss Approach ...................................................................... 12
7.6 Expected Value Approach ......................................................................................... 11
7.7 Expected Value of Perfect Information ..................................................................... 12
8.0 Plan 2 ............................................................................................................................ 13
9.0 References ..................................................................................................................... 14
10.0 Appendices .................................................................................................................... 19
10.1 Appendix 1 ................................................................................................................ 19
10.2 Appendix 2 ................................................................................................................ 19



Non-Financial Plan

1.0 Introduction
Louis Vuitton or commonly shortened to LV, a dream, icon and essence of elegance is
the words often seen in print media advertisings such as fashion magazines or the newspapers
when they describe LV (PubArticles, 2012). In 1854, founder of LV started his first suitcase
store in Paris using his own name and managed to develop to a very well-known brand
around the area for bags and leather products in only a century time. Besides that, generated
Moet Henessy • Louis Vuitton (LVMH) from LV’s merger is a part of the aspect that made
LV’s luxurious fashion image today.

These days, besides bags and leather products, LV logo and monogram is also all over
accessories, shoes, sunglasses, timepieces, jewelleries, books, stationeries, and other huge
trend indicators. LV as the current leading internationalfashion in the world only sells his
products in his authentic LV boutiques, upscale department stores and through its online
website because LV products are highly priced and generally not affordable for regular
people. As LV products mainly target luxurious people so, its major competitors would be
luxury brands for instance Versace, Hermes, Burberry, Chanel, Prada, Gucci and others.

According to LVMH group, its mission is to represent the most refined qualities of
Western “Art de Vivre” around the world. LVMH must continue to be synonymous with both
elegance and creativity. Products, and the cultural values they embody, blend tradition and
innovation, and kindle dream and fantasy. The group emphasizes on perfection so they pay
very close attention to every detail of their products.

Brand history, quality control, marketing buzz, and right designs are the key element
of LVMH to be a star brand. Its corporate strategy focuses on business diversification, merger
and acquisition. LVMH, the largest producer of luxury products which only engages on all
luxury segments and world renowned brand, and its marketing activity are the organization’s
competitive advantages. Core competency is gained through its product and service quality,
innovation, and training skills development.



2.0 Demographic and Social Trends
LV utilizes demographic targeting strategy to identify its customers. LV’s target
markets include both super rich men and women aging range of young adults aged 22 years
to seniors aged 65 years. The organization has been facing numerous challenges from
demographic evolutions such as aging populations, and racial and ethnic proportion changes.
Due to that, LV would have to continuously bring up new products to cater to the changes of
demands. For example, LV could gain profit by starting a new line in beauty care such as
anti-aging beauty cream to cater to the aging population as they possess the greatest spending
power in the market.

LV has already a strong brand image in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan. The
penetration rate of LV bags among Japanese women in the 2000s reached 40% (Marketing to
China, 2012). LV products are also a great social phenomenon in Asia comparing to France
its origin country. LV has done very well in Japan market as Japanese habitually goes after
high quality products and LV’s unique monogram is also a great contribution to it.

Currently, China is one of the largest markets for luxury products in the world with a
young and fast growing market. Many luxury brands including LV are now eyeing on China
as it has a huge opportunity to grow in the industry. LV products are often catered to only a
few people as it is highly priced, but with the large population in China, few people mean
many people as well. Moreover, China’s luxury goods market sales have been forecasted to
be increasing for the years to come (see Appendix 1). The boom in China’s luxury market is
driven by the new millionaires aged 39 years in average which is target market of LV.Luxury
brands like LV with strong prominent brand name and status symbol are the brands that
succeed in China.

Asian Americans are the highest income, best educated and fastest growing racial
group in the United States (Pew Research Center, 2012). America’s child population grew
more far diverse over the past decade as a decline in the ranks of white children was offset by
surging growth of Asians and Hispanics (Dougherty, C., 2011) (see Appendix 2). Asian
Americans and Hispanics may be the minorities but these groups in particular are
experiencing growth in buying power that greatly exceeds that of the general population
(Fahmy, S., 2010). With the great buying power, minorities would aim for more luxurious
and higher quality products which are a good opportunity for LV.



3.0 Counterfeit Issues
Counterfeiting has always been a problem for luxury goods with no exception for LV
as well. Due to LV’s image, it has become one of the most counterfeited fashion brands in the
world. In the recent years, no doubt there are numerous products bearing LV initials in the
streets all over the world, but only a small percentage of the products are genuine. Lately,
there has been a rise in counterfeiting luxury products because numerous manufacturing has
been shifted to countries with poor intellectual property rights and with the opportunity
provided to those countries by technology.

Throughout the years, LV has filed numerous lawsuits against companies for
importing and selling products with their trademark. Recommendation to LV is to educate
customers about the risks and ethics of buying counterfeit products. China has begun
extensive educational programs, staging more than 800 events around “IPR Protection
Publicity Week” this year alone while committing to even greater efforts in the future (Nunes,
P. F., Mulani, N. & Pozzi, A., 2008). LV should make full use of this event to create
customer awareness on counterfeit products.

Although LV has taken various actions to fight against counterfeit but there are still
numerous fake LVs out there due to the contribution of biggest sources from Turkey, along
with China, Thailand, Italy, South Korea and Morocco (Toy, S., 2012). Therefore, LV has set
up a team of people responsible fully on anti-counterfeiting with the help of special
investigation agencies and lawyers. In addition, the company is also keeping the distributions
of its products in close control.

Working together with governments is among the ways to help LV fight against
counterfeit. For instance, the company, in concert with other French makers of luxury goods,
has successfully lobbied the French parliament to make the import of even one counterfeit
article a criminal offense (Toy, S., 2012). In addition, the order, which will go into effect in
60 days unless President Barack Obama overrules it on public policy grounds, directs
Customs and Border Protection to turn away any products that are made in a way that is
similar or copies the Louis Vuitton trademarks (Slind, V., 2012).Meaning in USA and France,
only genuine LV products are open to enter to the market. Thus, reduce the market for
counterfeit products. Fighting counterfeit will not only help LV but also the countries to
avoid harming legitimate organizations and tax revenue.



4.0 Competition (Porter’s 5 Forces)
Porter’s 5 forces analysis is being used to analyze the attractiveness and productivity
in the industry through the following five factors:

4.1 Bargaining Power of Buyers
Bargaining power of buyers is relatively low. LVMH’s target customers are either the
super rich or the middle market customers as LVMH products are highly priced. The
organization emphasizes on brand loyalty, so customers would not switch brands easily.
Furthermore, all retailers on high end brands do not offer discounts, so customers would not
negotiate on pricing. As all brands have different perception of image in the eyes of
customers, therefore product differentiation is high.

4.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
Bargaining power of suppliers is low. Organizations like LVMH often purchase raw
materials from suppliers in basis of consignment which would reduce loss marking and
establish economies of scale. LVMH has recently taken over Les Tanneries Roux, a Romans-
sure-Isere-based leather supplier (Accessories Magazine, 2012). With this move to acquire
key suppliers will reduce the bargaining power of suppliers in terms of leather products.
LVMH would be able to save costs on storage space and capable in making sure of the
quality of products supplied.

4.3 Threats of New Entrants
Threat of new entrants is low as barriers to entry are high. LVMH has built a very
strong brand image and perception as it has been in the market for many years, and trust and
customer loyalty in its brand name for its service and quality. This is an element that not a
new entrant is able to achieve in a short period of time. Barriers to stay are also relatively
high as organizations have to engage between fashionable, elite and durable image.
Organizations must always engage to their image in order to sustain their perception yet
coping with customers’ desires and ever changing expectations. With the high barriers to
entry and stay, and low barriers to exit, many organizations find it challenging to either get in
the market or are easily out of the market. Only the best players and mostly big players are
able to survive. Examples of new entrants would be Hermes newly launched brand, Shang
Xia in China.



4.4 Threats of Substitute Products or Services
Threats of substitute products or services are relatively high. Besides LVMH, there
are many other luxury products such as Chanel, Prada, Hermes, Dior, Armani Exchange, and
lots more. But, the most direct competitors to LVMH are Pinault-Printemps-Redoute (PPR), a
French luxury holdings company that includes such brands as Yves Saint Laurent and Gucci,
and Compagnie Financiere Richemont, a Swiss luxury company that includes such brands as
Cartier and Montblanc. Major luxury brands have their own image and quality. Therefore, it
is vital to attract and retain capable employees in order to deliver better services and products
to customers. Majority customers have the thinking that products looks similar to genuine
will do more or less the same. LVMH must emphasize on its product and service uniqueness
in order to fight against counterfeit by making the packaging hard to duplicate and closing up
on its distribution.

4.5 Rivalry amongst Existing Competitors
The competitiveness amongst existing competitors is relatively high. Based on the
high margin and price perception from customers, price is not the element of competition but
rather on the quality, image insight, and ability to draw the exact designers to do the job.
Apply the “war for talent” which is a competition among organizations to draw and retain
star designers. Moreover, customers often have the perception that the product must be good
to have many people owning it. However, LMVH would have to bear with the high level of
fakes as an open publicity, as there only a certain percentage of people who can afford to buy
the genuine products. In addition, due to limited brands, there is a huge competition as all
organizations are catering to the same customers.

According to the Porter’s 5 forces analysis done above, it is proven that bargaining
power of buyers is low due to the brand image and product differentiation. The bargaining
power of suppliers is also low as raw materials are often bought in consignment so suppliers
naturally offers lower price. Besides that, LVMH also applies vertical integration, for
instance buying three formerly independent specialists suppliers for its watch operations,
including providers of cases and watch hands (Simonian, H., 2012). Threats of new entrants
are low as well because of LVMH’s brand image and differentiation of products. The threats
of substitute products or services are relatively high because of low buyers switching costs
and high productions of substitute products. And finally rivalry amongst existing competitors
is relatively high too due to limited brands catering the same customers.



5.0 Marketing
The basic element of a marketing plan for LVMH is evaluated by the 4P’s marketing
mix using the following:

5.1 Product
LV is one of the best luxury brands on the market with products made by the famous
talented designer, Marc Jacob and superb quality of raw materials (Louis Vuitton, 2012).
LV’s main products started with varieties of leather bags and wallets including luggage,
handbags and cosmetic bags with monogram as its product line. As years pass, LV starts
expanding its product line to monogram denim, multicolour, vernis, and damier canvas. With
more product types as well offering jewelleries, sunglasses, belts, timepieces, scarves,
accessories and lots more. Each product is labelled with the brand name, Louis Vuitton.
Besides catering to upscale market, LV should create productssuch as bags and jewelleries of
similar quality but selling at lower prices to cater to the middle income populations as they
possess a huge percentage of world population. LV could target two types of market with two
different product approaches yet sustaining its image.

5.2 Price
As LV’s main target markets are the super rich and middle class populations, LV
products are highly priced and are never on sale because of its brand name and quality of its
products. Its premium pricing is supported by its luxury image and it is LV’s selling point.

5.3 Place
Places where LV products are displayed to sell are at upscale department stores, its
authentic LV boutique and its official website. The organization keeps its distribution close to
limited stores and retailers in order to fight against counterfeit.

5.4 Promotion
The organization focuses on selling its product personally and not based on sales
promotion to convey on their brand’s luxury image. There are also various advertisements
done by LV to increase on customer knowledge and recognition in upscale magazines such as
Vogue and Elle, and billboards in certain countries. The organization has also been involved
in various sponsorships such as Louis Vuitton Cup 2013, LMVH Young Artists’ Award, and
LMVH website’s “The Magazines”. Endorsements by famous celebrities such as Madonna,
Rihanna, Uma Thurman, Kanye, Connery, Ariel, Dingchun Cheng and many others are also
an ultimate step taken by LV for customer recognition.



6.0 Environmental Issues
As LVMH is aware that there is a limit to our planet’s riches, it has always
emphasized on protecting the environment. LVMH unlike other organizations have many
brands in their portfolio making it more significant for them to achieve environmental
objectives as well as profit related objectives in order to gain competitive advantage.In 2001,
LVMH’s CEO, Bernard Arnault took a huge step of making it strategic by signing the
Environment Charter. Main objectives of it was to aim for a high level of environment
performance, foster a collective purpose, control environmental hazards, follow through on
product disposal, and make a commitment outside the company (United Nation Global
Compact, 2006).

Firstly, by using water resources wisely as it is a precious resource addressed by
producer of wines and spirits. Presses and vats should be cleaned frequently in order to
produce champagne or cognac with finest quality. However, to limit the use of water required
for cleaning, LVMH are developing simple measures, such as training employees in water
conservation and use of shut-off nozzles on hoses, or more technical solutions such as closed
circuit air conditioners and bottle washers, automated rinsing sequences and many more
(LVMH, 2012).

Secondly, energy usage is the core of environmental issues. Engines, transportations
and burning fossil fuels in boilers would generate greenhouse effect. It is a global challenge
to use energy in a more competent manner. LVMH incorporate the challenges and came up
with using streamline energy on production sites. According to LVMH, it provides financial
assistance to the organization to conduct prior energy diagnoses in order to identify ways of
optimizing their energy use. Perfumes of Christian Dior energy consumption dropped from
14.2 MWh in 1999 to 8.6 MWh in 2003 per ton of product manufactured (LVMH, 2012).

Thirdly, LVMH recently designed a tool to help workshops with packaging decisions
leading to a decreasing of empty space of inner and outer layer of the packaging. In addition,
usage of tissue papers and plastic protections in containers containing bags, trunks, and shoes
for shipment are also abolished for its continuing efforts. According to LVMH, leather goods
manufacturer produced a report in 2010 on the Carbon Footprint of the Neverfull bag,
comparing the old and new shipment packaging. The resulting initiatives led to a 60%
reduction in shipped volume, representing an annual saving of more than 950 MtCO2e
(LVMH Environment Report, 2011).



Financial Plan

7.0 Plan 1
State of Nature
Decision Competitive Foreign Poor Competitive
Conditions ($) Conditions ($)
Expand 800,000 500,000
Maintain status quo 1,300,000 -150,000
Sell now 320,000 320,000

7.1 Maximax
State of Nature
Decision Competitive Foreign Poor Competitive Maximax
Expand 800,000 500,000 $800,000
Maintain status quo 1,300,000 -150,000 1,300,000
Sell now 320,000 320,000 320,000
According to Maximax approach, LV should make decision to maintain status quo because it
will gain the most finance capital.

7.2 Maximin
State of Nature
Decision Competitive Foreign Poor Competitive Maximin
Expand 800,000 500,000 $500,000
Maintain status quo 1,300,000 -150,000 -150,000
Sell now 320,000 320,000 320,000
According to Maximin approach, LV should make decision to expand the market because it
will gain more profit.



7.3 Minimax Regret
State of Nature
Competitive Poor Minimax
Decision Foreign Competitive Regret
1,300,000 – 500,000 –
Expand 800,000 800,000 = 500,000 500,000 = 0 500,000
500,000
1,300,000 – 500,000 – (-
Maintain 1,300,000 1,300,000 = 0 -150,000 150,000) = 650,000
status quo 650,000
1,300,000 – 500,000 –
Sell now 320,000 320,000 = 320,000 320,000 = 980,000
980,000 180,000
According to Minimax Regret approach, LV should make decision to expand their market
which is $500,000 to gain higher return of investment.

7.4 Hurwicz
Competitive Poor
Alternatives Foreign Competitive Criterion of realism
Conditions Conditions
D1 500,000 0 (0.3)(500,000) + (0.7)(0) = 150,000
D2 0 650,000 (0.3)(650,000) + (0.7)(0) = 195,000
D3 980,000 180,000 (0.3)(980,000) + (0.7)(180,000) = 420,000
According to Hurwicz approach, LV should make decision to sell the business because

7.5 Expected Value
Alternatives CFC (0.7) PCC (0.3) Expected Value
D1 $800,000 $500,000 (800,000)(0.7)+(500,000)(0.3) = 710,000
D2 1,300,000 -150,000 (1,300,000)(0.7)+(-150,000)(0.3) =865,000
D3 320,000 320,000 (320,000)(0.7)+(320,000)(0.3) = 320,000
According to Expected Value approach, LV should make decision to maintain status quo for
the organization because



7.6 Expected Opportunity Loss
Alternatives CFC PCC Expected Opportunity Loss
D1 500,000 0 (500,000)(0.7) + (0)(0.3) = 350,000
D2 0 650,000 (0)(0.7) + (650,000)(0.3) = 195,000
D3 980,000 180,000 (980,000)(0.7) + (180,000)(0.3) = 740,000
According to EOL approach, LV should make decision to maintain status quo for the
organization because

7.7 Expected Value of Perfect Information
EVwPI = (1,300,000)(0.7) + (500,000)(0.3) = 1,060,000

EVPI = EVwPI – EvwoPI

EVPI = $1,060,000 – 865,000

= $195,000

The expected value of true or correct information is $195,000.



8.0 Plan 2
Stock Price Change Probability Cumulative Interval of Random
($) Probability Number
-2 0.05 0.05 0-0.05
-1 0.10 0.15 0.06-0.15
0 0.25 0.40 0.16-0.40
+1 0.20 0.60 0.41-0.60
+2 0.20 0.80 0.61-0.80
+3 0.10 0.90 0.81-0.90
+4 0.10 1.00 0.91-1.00

Random Numbers 0.1091 0.9407 0.1941 0.8083
Price Per Share -1 +4 0 +3
Average stimulated price per share = 6/3 = 2

Random Numbers 0.2540 0.7144 0.0563 0.0125
Price Per Share 0 +2 -1 -2
Average stimulated price per share = - 1/3 = - 0.33



9.0 References
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10.0 Appendices

10.1 Appendix 1

Source:

10.2 Appendix 2

Source:


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