Exploration, serendipity and the art of SEO & social

#digitaljourneys

Exploration, serendipity
and the art of SEO & social
by Matt Owen | 18 July 2012

© Jellyfish 2012

Matt Owen (@mattlloydowen)
Head of UK Agency, Global SEO & Social
Matt has 20 years’ experience in sales and marketing and
is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Marketing (FCIM).
Joined Jellyfish in 2010 after a three year stint as Group
Account Director with iCrossing UK.
As Head of UK Agency, Matt leads the UK teams forward,
working with key clients such Fidelity, Berkeley Group
and Pfizer. Matt plays guitar in a punk-folk band, supports
Nottingham Forest, drives a Volvo and cooks great roast
potatoes (goose fat is the secret!)

Digital Journeys | Exploration, serendipity and the art of SEO & social | 18 July 2012

Explorer, pioneer, leader


Key facts

› 37,560 miles, 3 years
› 18 survivors from 237
› One ship from five
› How did they get there?

Magellan – the pitch


Best data
available at
that time


A pioneering achievement

‘The idea of the voyage itself had relied on
the not-undisputed idea of a spherical Earth.
The circumnavigation completed by
Magellan’s expedition thus confirmed the
conception of the world as a globe’


Today’s explorers


Good data = Good result?
"Magic is an elusive force," admits John Hegarty.
He came up with "Vorsprung Durch Technik" when he saw it on a
faded piece of old publicity material on a visit to an Audi factory.
Even then, the market research came back negative but Audi
bosses eventually ran the slogan. "Another example of how much
advertising research is useless," says Hegarty.


Serendipitous PPC data – UK dating site
› i married an arsehole
› olly murs tickets cardiff concert tickets
› i m lonely
› was adolf hitler married
› olympic games dates
*Serendipity – unexpected coincidence (Jeff Jarvis)


And some more...
› Share my girlfriend – financial title
› Nursing bra - online nursing degree lead
› rubbish investment tips - financial title
› solar f**k*ng panels – energy supplier
› Online stopwatch – doctoral degree programme
› pat butchers wallpaper – lifestyle title
› do they have jellyfish in cyprus – leading UK online agency


Data reliance ≠ innovation, growth


Journeys - the traditional marketing model


2.0
Google Study 2011
Google asked Shopper Sciences to do a comprehensive study
of 5,000 shoppers across 12 categories, from groceries to cars
to financial products.
The goal: show where influence takes place as shoppers move from
undecided to decided.
The data revealed that the average shopper
used 10.4 sources of information to make a
decision in 2011, up from 5.3 sources in 2010.
Yes, that number nearly doubled in one year!

User journeys - the new mental model


The new sources of information ZMOT
› Talked with friends/family about the product › Talked to a customer service representative online
› Searched online, used a search engine › Searched the web for information with my mobile phone in the store
› Comparison shopped products online › Saw product mentioned on a social networking website like Facebook
› Sought information from a product brand/manufacturer website › Received a referral notice from a friend online
› Read product reviews or endorsements online › Commented on a product mentioned on a social networking website
› Sought information from a retailer/store website › Commented on a blog that discussed product
› Read comments following an article/opinion piece online › Searched for a coupon with my mobile phone before shopping
› Became a friend/follower/”liked” a brand › Saw an ad/coupon sent to my mobile phone
› Watched videos about product online › Looked for coupons on a retailer/store website
› Read/visited a blog that discussed product › Participated in a chat or discussion online about product
› Searched for information with my mobile phone before shopping


The new sources of information ZMOT

76% 84% 77%

Stimulus ZMOT FMOT


What does this mean?
Every brand needs to consider
the role of the Zero Moment
Of Truth, and build effective
strategies and processes to
maximise this impact on success

Complex
journeys,
hard to
measure,
predict


Mapping SEO
& social objectives

The art of SEO forecasting – in practice

Request from major UK high street brand,
value driven fashion sector:
‘Our objective is to achieve no. 1 rankings across
all key products. Please supply a one year MOM forecast
which will achieve our annual traffic and turnover targets’


Not too much detail requested
SEO Generics
SEO Brand
no.
of Conversi Expecte Average no. of Convers Expecte Average
Visito on Rate no. of d Order Visitor ion no. of d Order
Month
rs
Costs
%
Orders
Revenue
Value
s
Costs
Rate %
Orders
Revenue
Value
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep


Stage one – rankings predictions


Rankings predictions – some detail


Rankings predictions – more detail


Rankings predictions – even more detail


Rankings predictions – accuracy check!

› How many keywords? 100, 1,000, How much effort?
› What about the ‘halo’ effect?
› And of course:
› Competitor activity levels
› Algorithm changes
› On-site challenges


Stage two - traffic predictions
Percent Of Traffic by Google Result


Traffic predictions – generic CTR, #1 = 30%


Traffic predictions – brand, CTR #3 = 10%


Traffic predictions – hang on…


Traffic predictions – accuracy check!

› Search volume estimations are inaccurate
› CTR will vary depending on:
› Brand or generic keywords
› Brand strength / association with search term
› SERPs environment (text, universal results)
› Seasonality


The art of SEO forecasting – in practice

› ...is absolute guess work
› It will be inaccurate
› Potentially misleading
› Only valid for single keywords, very narrow
keyword group, with good knowledge
of SERPs challenge and actual traffic data


Game over;
or think like Magellan

Would Keyword URL Pos.
Search
volume

we have
cheap flights www.skyscanner.net/ 2 694250
cheap flights to new york www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/nyca/cheap-flights-to-new-york.html 2 59541
cheap flights to india www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/in/cheap-flights-to-india.html 2 25205
cheapest flights www.skyscanner.net/ 1 21533

achieved cheapflights www.skyscanner.net/
cheap flights to amsterdam www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/ams/cheap-flights-to-amsterdam-airport.html
www.skyscanner.net/flights/uk/au/cheapest-flights-from-united-kingdom-to-
2
3
20850
15516

this?
cheap flights to australia australia.html 4 15441
cheap flights to turkey www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/tr/cheap-flights-to-turkey.html 3 15350
cheap tickets to india www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/in/cheap-flights-to-india.html 2 13991
cheap flights to malaga www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/agp/cheap-flights-to-malaga-airport.html 2 13441
cheap flight www.skyscanner.net/ 1 13208
cheap flights to tenerife www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/tene/cheap-flights-to-tenerife.html 2 13033
cheap flights to paris www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/pari/cheap-flights-to-paris.html 2 12258
cheap flights to cyprus www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/cy/cheap-flights-to-cyprus.html 3 11327
cheap flights to dubai www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/dxb/cheap-flights-to-dubai-airport.html 1 10736
cheap flights to dublin www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/dub/cheap-flights-to-dublin-airport.html 1 10047
cheap flights to alicante www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/alc/cheap-flights-to-alicante-airport.html 2 8919
cheap flights to spain www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/es/cheap-flights-to-spain.html 3 8725
cheap flights to bangkok www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/bkkt/cheap-flights-to-bangkok.html 2 8575
cheap flights to barcelona www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/bcn/cheap-flights-to-barcelona-airport.html 1 8011
cheap flights to pakistan www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/pk/cheap-flights-to-pakistan.html 1 7450
cheap flights to rome www.skyscanner.net/flights-to/rome/cheap-flights-to-rome.html 3 6841


Or tackled this?


Social media impact..?


Correlations are helpful - Twitter

› After 5,000 tweets the average ranking of URLs improves considerably
› URLs receiving over 7,500 tweets almost always rank inside the top 5 results
› Average rankings are heavily correlated to the number of tweets about each URL


Google+ correlation


Authorship correlation
› Analysed the author
integrations in the
SERPs for a million
keywords in google.com
› So, 17% of searches
delivering first page
content which featured
a rel=author signal

Ranking factors UK


Observations
› It’s a complex (digital) landscape – expect the unexpected
› SEO and social is tough to predict
› Signals becoming increasingly diverse and subtle
Correlations can help, but don’t rely on data,
especially for long term planning
› Challenging for ‘traditional’ digital thinking (acquisition focus)
› Opportunities exist, pioneering approach required


Exploration, serendipity and the art of SEO & social

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