The document discusses recurring 40-45 year cycles in culture, society, values, and expression. It notes similarities between the current period and the 1970s/1930s in terms of economic discontent, unpopular presidents, craft/artisanal trends, and social experimentation. It presents a model of recurring 40-45 year cycles moving between internal/relational phases focused on social reform and external/material phases of economic growth. The document speculates on possible trends in the upcoming 2020s including limited government, massive technological innovations, conformity pressures, and emerging market economic focus.

1. Déjà Vu All Over Again
The Forty-Year Cycle in
Culture and Society
Jim Lee, APF
Trends Breakfast
University & Whist Club

2. History seldom repeats itself,
but it usually rhymes…
Mark Twain

3. Why are we reliving the
1970’s?

4. Speaking as a GenXer

5. Economic Discontent
Current 1970’s 1930’s

6. Unpopular Presidents
Current 1970’s 1930’s

7. Crafting, Artisanal Everything
Current 1970’s 1930’s

8. Folk Music
Current 1960’s & 1970’s 1930’s

9. Social Experimentation
Current 1970’s 1930’s

10. What about the 1890’s?

11. What about the 1890’s?

12. 1920’s
1960’s
2000’s
1930’s
1970’s
2010’s
1950’s
1990’s
2030’s
1940’s
1980’s
2020’s
Values and Expression
40-45 Year Cycle
ExternalInternal
Relational
Material

13. • Internal/Relational: The excesses of the previous
decades are brought into question at an individual
level. Real estate values peak. The social fabric
unravels and there is a shifting focus towards social
reform. Young adults become less conformist and
more counter-cultural. (1920’s, 1960’s, 2000’s)
• External/Relational: This is a period of public
unrest and skepticism. Standards of living are
redefined. The economy is in a state of prolonged
stagnation, yet major progress is made in terms of
providing for social equality and environmental
sustainability. Institutions eventually hit the “reset”
button, providing a foundation for new growth
and prosperity. (1930’s, 1970’s, 2010’s)
• External/Material: Is a period of rising optimism.
It is typically a “golden age” period for
conservatism and business. There is privatization,
de-regulation and a less involved government.
(1940s, 1980’s, 2020’s)
• Internal/Material: The focus shifts somewhat
towards the family. Politics are still conservative,
and the economy has stabilized into a period of
predictable economic growth. Wealth and power
becomes more concentrated. Eventually, success
leads to excess – leading to speculative bubbles.
(1950’s, 1990’s, 2030’s)

14. • Values: Material vs. Relational
• Expression: Internal vs. External
Values & Expression Cycle

15. Relational
• Declining social mood
• Reform
• Social Capital
• Uncertainty
• Counter-culture
• Localism/Isolationism
Values Cycle
Material
• Rising social mood
• Growth
• Financial Capital
• Confidence
• Conformity
• Globalism/Aggression

16. Expression Cycle
Internal
• Thought
• Family
• Nesting
External
• Action
• Individual
• Exploration


17. Arrogance/
Shock
Anger
Confidence Optimism
The Socionomic Connection
Declining Social Mood
Rising Social Mood
ActionContemplation

18. A Possible Future –
Previewing the 2020’s
Politics: Smaller, more limited government. Rise of a “big man.”
Science: Massive innovations coming to market based on AI,
smart robotics, ubiquitous computing, personalized genomics,
energy storage technologies. Return of ambitious science projects.
Culture: Careful re-examination of male gender roles (to reach
fruition by 2030’s). Greater pressures toward conformity.
Designers as brands. Digital nomads, urbanization, and the
continued rise of status cities.
Entertainment: More goofball humor and fewer “dark” themes.
Kawaii gets big. Increasingly, the audience chooses outcomes of
stories.
Economy: New bull market after restructuring (repudiation?) of
the U.S. debt. Focus on emerging markets for growth.

19. Thinking about Tomorrow
(Koans for Futurists)
• What is work without employment?
• What is the role of men in a culture with less need
for risk-taking, physicality, or territoriality?
• How does one conform within a post-modern
society?
• What is rare within an economy of abundance?
• What does it mean to be human?

20. DISCLOSURES
• Strategic Foresight Investments LLC ("StratFI") is a Registered Investment
Advisor ("RIA"), registered in the State of Delaware. StratFI provides asset
management and related services for clients nationally.
• Information contained in this report is for informational and educational
purposes only and is not to be considered investment advice or a
recommendation to purchase any particular security. One should not engage
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