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The shape of the future
E-commerce: The emergence of a new asset class?
Alexandra Tornow
Head of EMEA Logistics
& Industrial Research
Why logistics real estate: The retail factor
1
Improving quality of logistics assets …
but large parts of the existing stock
will remain competitive
High and increasing diversity
of space requirements drive
opportunities for all lot sizesNew distribution patterns drive
incremental demand for
logistics space
The inexorable shift to ‘everywhere
consumption’is pushing the
importance of the asset class
Logistics network
alignment has only just begun
Source: JLL
Incremental logistics demand
2
10 million
sq m p/a
13.2 million
sq m p/a
Further globalization of supply chains
Source: JLL
The boom era
2004 - 2008
Economic woes
2009 - 2013
New retail patterns
30%
… and a variety of different delivery options
Increased supply chain complexity
3
Today, the path of a parcel
involves up to four warehouses …
LOCAL COLLECTION
DEPOT
HUB
LOCAL DELIVERY
DEPOT
E-FULFILLMENT CENTRE CLICK &
COLLECT
SAME-DAY
DELIVERY
CAR DROP-OFF
Package repository
through secure access
PRIVATE
PARCEL BOX
SAME-HOUR
DELIVERY
Based on predictive
analytics
SHIP
FROM STORE
LOCKER
STATIONS
At major transport
interlinks
NEW
CONCEPTS
Yet to be designed
+
Source: JLL
Different building types and their location characteristics
4
Areas that can be outside a traditional ‘cluster of
gravity’ location offering excellent access to transport
infrastructure and high availability of workforce
Metropolitan area / proximity to large conurbations
and transport infrastructure including ports and
multi-modal sites (train, barges)
At the edge or within major cities / urban areas
At the edge or within major cities / urban areas
Metropolitan area / proximity to large
conurbations and transport infrastructure;
in proximity to e-fulfilment centres
MEGA E-FULFILLMENT
CENTRES
PARCEL HUB / SORTATION
CENTRE
PARCEL DELIVERY CENTRE &
URBAN LOGISTICS DEPOT
RETURN PROCESSING
CENTRE
DOT.COM WAREHOUSE FOR
ONLINE FOOD FULFILLMENT
Source: JLL
5
JLL occupier survey: % of respondents indicating their floorspace requirements (multiple responses possible)
No size fits all …
38%
Very large
(30,000 - 50,000 sq m)
32%
Medium sized
(10,000 - 30,000 sq m)
30%
Small
(below 10,000 sq m)
25%
Mega-sheds
(above 50,000 sq m)
Source: JLL logistics and industrial occupier survey Europe in cooperation with CoreNet Global
… but big is beautiful
The ‘emergence’ of mega sheds…
6
6.5 million sq m
Completed
2009 – H1 2014
~ 1.1 million sq m
Under construction
Source: JLL
… and their tenant base
7
25%
3 PL
23%
Online
23%
Multi-channel
21%
General retail
6%
Manufacturing
2%
Other
Source: JLL
Single unit assets >50,000 sq m
394
8
The geography of mega sheds
Source: JLL
190*
276
910
2,490
282
540
512
584
225
160
100
1,340
n/a
,000 sq m
*planned
Improving quality of logistics assets
9
More than of new facilities built since 200930 million sq m
Featuring:
Mezzanine floorspace
Power supply
Loading doors
Employee rooms
Car parking
Port location
Rail access
Multi-modal
Sustainability
`
P
Source: JLL
Month 00, 2014 10
36%
16%
48%
standard modern general specification
build to suit or specific standards
both types are needed
Required standard of
facilities
Source: JLL logistics and industrial occupier survey Europe in cooperation with CoreNet Global
But fears of obsolescence are unnecessary
Logistics network not fit for the future
Live-poll results of 70+ seminar attendees
11
Source: JLL, Corenet Global
3%
Yes, current network
alignment is fit for
purpose
67%
No, current network
alignment will need
significant future
restructuring.
30%
Minor adjustments
required
The opportunities
Why logistics real estate?
12
 Growing geographic spread: rising appeal of smaller markets
 Widespread demand offers opportunities for all lot sizes
 Large-size single assets: continued development
 Further potential for portfolio and JV deals
 Moving up the risk curve: value-add and opportunistic
 Further yield compression as asset class matures
Growing liquidity: further stock expansion
Source: JLL
13
Logistics real estate networks will continue to
evolve, sustaining ongoing healthy market fundamentals
and therefore further opportunities for landlords,
developers and investors
For successful ‘everywhere consumption’
logistics and supply chain management
are critical
This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without
the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no
representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. Jones Lang
LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.
Contact
14
Alexandra Tornow
Head of EMEA Logistics & Industrial Research
Frankfurt
+49 (0)69 2003 1352
alexandra.tornow@eu.jll.com
de.linkedin.com/pub/alexandra.tornow
@aletornow

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E-commerce: The emergence of a new asset class?

  • 1. The shape of the future E-commerce: The emergence of a new asset class? Alexandra Tornow Head of EMEA Logistics & Industrial Research
  • 2. Why logistics real estate: The retail factor 1 Improving quality of logistics assets … but large parts of the existing stock will remain competitive High and increasing diversity of space requirements drive opportunities for all lot sizesNew distribution patterns drive incremental demand for logistics space The inexorable shift to ‘everywhere consumption’is pushing the importance of the asset class Logistics network alignment has only just begun Source: JLL
  • 3. Incremental logistics demand 2 10 million sq m p/a 13.2 million sq m p/a Further globalization of supply chains Source: JLL The boom era 2004 - 2008 Economic woes 2009 - 2013 New retail patterns 30%
  • 4. … and a variety of different delivery options Increased supply chain complexity 3 Today, the path of a parcel involves up to four warehouses … LOCAL COLLECTION DEPOT HUB LOCAL DELIVERY DEPOT E-FULFILLMENT CENTRE CLICK & COLLECT SAME-DAY DELIVERY CAR DROP-OFF Package repository through secure access PRIVATE PARCEL BOX SAME-HOUR DELIVERY Based on predictive analytics SHIP FROM STORE LOCKER STATIONS At major transport interlinks NEW CONCEPTS Yet to be designed + Source: JLL
  • 5. Different building types and their location characteristics 4 Areas that can be outside a traditional ‘cluster of gravity’ location offering excellent access to transport infrastructure and high availability of workforce Metropolitan area / proximity to large conurbations and transport infrastructure including ports and multi-modal sites (train, barges) At the edge or within major cities / urban areas At the edge or within major cities / urban areas Metropolitan area / proximity to large conurbations and transport infrastructure; in proximity to e-fulfilment centres MEGA E-FULFILLMENT CENTRES PARCEL HUB / SORTATION CENTRE PARCEL DELIVERY CENTRE & URBAN LOGISTICS DEPOT RETURN PROCESSING CENTRE DOT.COM WAREHOUSE FOR ONLINE FOOD FULFILLMENT Source: JLL
  • 6. 5 JLL occupier survey: % of respondents indicating their floorspace requirements (multiple responses possible) No size fits all … 38% Very large (30,000 - 50,000 sq m) 32% Medium sized (10,000 - 30,000 sq m) 30% Small (below 10,000 sq m) 25% Mega-sheds (above 50,000 sq m) Source: JLL logistics and industrial occupier survey Europe in cooperation with CoreNet Global … but big is beautiful
  • 7. The ‘emergence’ of mega sheds… 6 6.5 million sq m Completed 2009 – H1 2014 ~ 1.1 million sq m Under construction Source: JLL
  • 8. … and their tenant base 7 25% 3 PL 23% Online 23% Multi-channel 21% General retail 6% Manufacturing 2% Other Source: JLL
  • 9. Single unit assets >50,000 sq m 394 8 The geography of mega sheds Source: JLL 190* 276 910 2,490 282 540 512 584 225 160 100 1,340 n/a ,000 sq m *planned
  • 10. Improving quality of logistics assets 9 More than of new facilities built since 200930 million sq m Featuring: Mezzanine floorspace Power supply Loading doors Employee rooms Car parking Port location Rail access Multi-modal Sustainability ` P Source: JLL
  • 11. Month 00, 2014 10 36% 16% 48% standard modern general specification build to suit or specific standards both types are needed Required standard of facilities Source: JLL logistics and industrial occupier survey Europe in cooperation with CoreNet Global But fears of obsolescence are unnecessary
  • 12. Logistics network not fit for the future Live-poll results of 70+ seminar attendees 11 Source: JLL, Corenet Global 3% Yes, current network alignment is fit for purpose 67% No, current network alignment will need significant future restructuring. 30% Minor adjustments required
  • 13. The opportunities Why logistics real estate? 12  Growing geographic spread: rising appeal of smaller markets  Widespread demand offers opportunities for all lot sizes  Large-size single assets: continued development  Further potential for portfolio and JV deals  Moving up the risk curve: value-add and opportunistic  Further yield compression as asset class matures Growing liquidity: further stock expansion Source: JLL
  • 14. 13 Logistics real estate networks will continue to evolve, sustaining ongoing healthy market fundamentals and therefore further opportunities for landlords, developers and investors For successful ‘everywhere consumption’ logistics and supply chain management are critical
  • 15. This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. Jones Lang LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication. Contact 14 Alexandra Tornow Head of EMEA Logistics & Industrial Research Frankfurt +49 (0)69 2003 1352 alexandra.tornow@eu.jll.com de.linkedin.com/pub/alexandra.tornow @aletornow