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2014 will be the year of a
diversifying and expanding
office recovery

United States
Office Review
Q4 2013
…
Landlord confidence continues to grow; for the 12th consecutive
quarter, asking rents increased and decreased concessions
nationally. Further, when examining tenant leverage ahead
across markets, less than 10 percent of geographies JLL tracks
will be categorized as tenant-favorable in 2015.
Ending 2013, growth no longer concentrated as strongly
in specific regions or industry niche markets
Leasing activity

• Q4 posted 61.4 million square feet of leasing activity.
• Leasing levels down 6.1 percent from Q3 2013.
• Annual 2013 leasing levels up 6.5 percent from 2012

Absorption

• Absorption levels increase with 15th consecutive quarter of occupancy growth.
• Absorption gains totaled 13.2 million square feet in the quarter and overall in 2013 nearly reached 40.0
million square feet, the highest volume in the recovery so far.
• Throughout the year, New York, Houston, Dallas, the Bay Area and Seattle were the largest contributors to
absorption nationally.

Vacancy

• Vacancy dropped 20 basis points to a recovery low of 16.6 percent during the quarter and dropped from
17.0 percent last year..
• CBD vacancy fell below 14.0 to 13.9 percent and in the suburbs, vacancy levels closed the year at 18.2
percent.

Rents

•
•
•
•
•

Construction

• Construction starts no longer dominated by specific geographies.
• Most markets will not see new deliveries enter the market until 2015, presenting challenges for large
tenants, especially in CBDs.

Tenants have far less leverage across urbanized, core markets, especially in Trophy and Class A buildings.
Rents have now increased in 12 of the past 13 quarters.
Class A rent growth continues to trump Class B rent movement across the board.
Rents growing over four times faster in CBDs than suburbs.
Concessions continue to erode and are now at 2008 levels nationally.

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

3
Consistent number of markets posting quarterly increases
in leasing activity (45.8 percent of markets)
Up

Neutral

Down

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%

30%
20%
10%
0%
2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

4
Leasing activity totaled 61.4 million square feet, down 6.1
percent from Q3
90,000,000

26-quarter trailing average

80,000,000

Leasing activity (s.f.)

70,000,000
60,000,000

50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

5
Q4 2013 posted leasing activity 14.0 percent higher than
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2012
Q4 2011
Q4 2010
Q4 2009
Q4 2008
Q4 2007

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

Leasing activity (s.f.)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

6
Annual leasing activity 6.5 percent higher in 2013 than in
2012, but third-highest during recovery
300,000,000

Leasing activity (s.f.)

250,000,000

200,000,000

150,000,000

100,000,000

50,000,000

0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

7
A wide range of geographies leasing fastest relative
to supply
Leasing activity as percentage of inventory

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
New York

San Francisco

San Francisco
Peninsula

Minneapolis

Boston

Silicon Valley

Fairfield County

St. Louis

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

8
Q4 marks 15th consecutive quarter of positive net
absorption, highest since 2007
Quarterly net absorption (as % of inventory)

1.5%

15-year trailing quarterly average
1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.0%
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

9
2013 annual net absorption reaches 1.1 percent of
inventory, surpasses 15-year average
Net absorption as a percent of inventory

5.0%

15-year trailing annual average

4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

10
Suburban Class A space comprises the majority of
absorption, with Class B presence growing
Class A (CBD)
Class B (suburban)

50,000,000

Class A (suburban)
Class C (CBD)

2011

2012

Class B (CBD)
Class C (suburban)

YTD net absorption (s.f.)

40,000,000

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

0

-10,000,000
2010

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

11
Geographic spread of the recovery and growth in New
York make 2013 the most balanced year of the recovery
NYC and DC
Tech markets
Energy markets

2010

2012

Sunbelt
All other markets

2010: New York and DC comprise 70.0 percent of
absorption.
2011: Tech and energy emerge, comprising 52.5
percent of absorption; New York and DC fall to 5.1
percent.
2012: Sunbelt markets grow to over one-third of
absorption, but tech and energy remain dominant
(58.2 percent of 2012 absorption); New York and
DC both post negative annual absorption.
2013: No sector or region contributes more than
one quarter of annual absorption, all others
contribute 26.4 percent.

11.1%
26.4%

2011

2013

21.6%

18.6%
22.3%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

12
Energy, tech and Sunbelt markets all posting aboveaverage absorption; energy and tech remain ahead
3.5%

Energy markets

YTD net absorption (% of stock)

3.0%

Tech markets

Sunbelt markets
U.S. average

2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

13
New York’s strong Q4 performance makes East Coast
largest contributor for the first time since Q2 2011
East Coast

Central

West Coast

100%
80%

Share of quarterly absorption (%)

60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

14
Although a tiny portion of inventory, Atlanta and
Florida contributing disproportionately to recovery
7.4%

20,000,000

22.9%
Atlanta

1,261.6%
Florida

63.3%

Rest of East Coast

Net absorption (s.f.)

15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000

0
-5,000,000
-10,000,000
2010

2011

2012

2013

15
Class B absorption has risen in line with Class A rents
as tenants seek affordable space options…
Class B net absorption

0.8%

Class A rent

$36
$35
$34

0.4%

$33
0.2%
$32
0.0%
$31
-0.2%

$30

-0.4%

Class A average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)

Class B YT D net absorption (as % of stock)

0.6%

$29

-0.6%

$28
2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

16
…but Class A remains the leader in absorption since 2011

Trophy & Class A net
absorption

Class B and C net
absorption

83.4 18.4
m.s.f. m.s.f.
2011-2013

2011-2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

17
…with 80.9 of Q4 absorption being Class A space
350%

295.2%

Class A share of quarterly absorption

300%

250%

200%

150%

133.5%

100%

98.5%

93.9%
74.5%

82.0%

76.3%

78.3%

73.4%

80.9%

63.5%

45.2%

50%

0%

2011
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

18
Even in large block-deprived CBDs, Class A space
responsible for nearly all absorption…
180%

166.2%

Class A share of quarterly absorption

160%
140%
120%
100.0%

100%

90.4%

106.1%

88.8%

88.1%
80.8%

92.0%

86.5%

74.8%

80%
60%

49.6%

40%
20%
0.0%

0%

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

19
…while the percentage has slowly fallen in the suburbs
180%

167.8%

Class A share of quarterly absorption

160%
140%
120%

116.9%
102.5%

97.9%

100%

84.3%

85.3%

75.1%

80%

73.4%

72.8%

70.3%

62.3%
60%
43.2%
40%
20%

0%

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

20
Driving the B market of late? Creative space in
tech hubs
CBD year-end net absorption (% of stock)

6.0%

Class A

Class B

5.4%

4.9%

5.0%
4.0%

3.4%
3.0%

3.0%

2.1%

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

1.0%

1.0%

0.7%
0.3%

0.0%

-1.0%

-0.7%

-0.5%

-2.0%

Austin

Portland

Detroit

San Francisco

Seattle

Oakland-East Bay

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

21
Overall, Class A continues to trump commodity
according to most indicators

of absorbed space in 2013
has been Class A

per square foot difference
between Class A and B space…

the rate at which Class A rates are
growing compared to Class B

difference between Class A and
Class B total vacancy

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

22
Total vacancy still falling very slowly, but levels now
the lowest since before 2009
20%
19%

16.6%

18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
13%
12%
11%

Q4 2010

Q3 2013

Q2 2013

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q3 2012

Q2 2012

Q1 2012

Q4 2011

Q3 2011

Q2 2011

Q1 2011

Q4 2010

Q3 2010

Q2 2010

Q1 2010

Q4 2009

Q3 2009

Q2 2009

Q1 2009

10%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

23
Still, vacancy levels remain near historical highs
20%

16.6%

18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

6%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

24
Total vacancy down across building classes and
geographies, but with significant variance
22%

Class A (CBD)

Class A (suburban)

Class B (CBD)

Class B (suburban)

Class C (CBD)

Class C (suburban)

B

Total vacancy (%)

20%

18%

16%
C A

14%

12%

10%
2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

25
Office growth being driven by atypical tenant
industries
Industry

Employment base

Most affected office markets to date

State Government
Federal Government
Media-print
Finance / banking
Law firms
Consulting
Accounting
Telecom
Retail / consumer goods
Education
Media digital and TV
Green energy / clean technology
Real estate (Residential)

Contracting
Contracting
Contracting
Contracting
Contracting (Rightsizing)
Contracting (Rightsizing)
Contracting (Rightsizing)
Stable
Stable
Growing
Growing
Growing
Growing

California, Illinois, New Jersey
Washington, DC
LA, NYC
NYC, Charlotte, Chicago, Palm Beach, Pittsburgh
Washington, DC, NYC, SF, Atlanta, LA
NYC, Chicago, Washington, DC
Chicago, NYC, LA
NJ, Dallas, Atlanta
NYC, Atlanta, Los Angeles
Everywhere
Atlanta, NYC, LA, Philadelphia, Washington, DC
Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley, Denver

Technology

Growing

Natural Gas / Oil Energy
Biotech / pharmaceutical

Growing
Growing

Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Austin, Seattle, Portland,
Midtown South NYC, Cambridge, MA
Denver, Houston, Dallas, Pittsburgh
San Francisco, San Diego, NJ/Phil, Boston, RDU

Southern CA, Nevada, AZ, FL, GA, Carolinas

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

26
Demographics and technology are driving productivity
and utilization and the next evolution of office space
use
150
SF/employee
average target
density, down from
225 in 2009

15%
Space reduction
by U.S. law firms
and financial
services relocating

72%
Of global CREs plan
to aggressively
increase density in
next 3 years

50%
Of the U.S.
workforce was
baby boomers in
2010. Gen Y will
be 50% by 2020

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

27
And as a result, law firms are shifting
•
•
•
•

Going digital
Elimination of law libraries
One-sized fits all office
Higher administrative ratios

•
•
•

Migration to glass boxes
Migration to long and lean
Migration to smaller floorplates

15.2%

20.5%

24.7%

Giveback by law firm
across the U.S. when
relocating

Giveback by law firm
across the top 7 U.S. markets
when relocating

Giveback by law firm
across DC when
relocating

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

28
Consulting / accounting are shifting
•
•
•

Benching
Work flexibly and client officing
Offices gone; collaboration
rooms in

•
•

Increasingly looking at new
construction to meet efficiency
standards
Industry giving back most space

25.0%

225 s.f.

90 s.f.

Giveback by
consulting firms
across the U.S. when
relocating

Average space per consultant
in years past

Average space per
consultant in the most
efficient firms today

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

29
Technology companies are shifting
•
•
•

Benching is standard
Less personal space, more
shared and amenity space
“Open Hangar” design preferred

•
•
•

Migration to Class B+ with
character
Space viewed as core to culture
Remote work is waning

17.4%

14.2%

11.2%

Percent increase in
high tech service jobs
since 2009

Vacancy rate in core tech
markets, compared to
16.8% nationwide

Growth in core tech
market rents in 2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

30
Banks are shifting
•
•
•

Regulation and cost pressures
forcing portfolio consolidation
Offices shrinking
Business units competing

10.1%
Giveback by average
bank across the U.S.
when renewing (with
headcount flat)

•
•
•

Branch reductions common
Increasing importance of back
office (2nd / 3rd –tier markets)
Remote working increasing

86%

66%

Percent of banking
transactions that no
longer need a teller

Percent of surveyed
banks planning to
reduce their RE
footprint

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

31
Even the federal government is shifting
•
•
•
•

Telecommuting
Benching
Collocations
Minimal funds to implement

•
•
•

Consolidations in low cost
buildings/submarkets
Migration to off-center locations
Disposition of underutilized assets.

170 s.f.

$1.7 billion

15.9%

Target utilization rate
per employee for
federally leased space

Amount spent annually by
GSA for properties deemed
underutilized

Average giveback by
GSA across Metro DC
when relocating in FY
2013

Source: GSA.gov, Jones Lang LaSalle Research

32
After a slowdown earlier in the year, faster office-using
employment growth pushes down vacancy
Office-using employment

Total vacancy

19.0%
18.5%

29,000

18.0%

28,500

17.5%
28,000
17.0%

27,500

16.5%

15.5%
2013

26,500
2012

16.0%

2011

27,000

Total vacancy

Office-using employees (thousands)

29,500

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

33
CBD vacancy drops 30 basis points to 13.9 percent;
suburban down 10 basis points to 18.2 percent
25%
23%
21%

Total vacancy (%)

19%
17%

15%
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

34
Sublease space falls once again to 54.4 million square
feet, nearing recovery low
100,000,000
90,000,000

70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
Q2
20
Q3 07
20
Q4 08
20
Q1 08
20
Q2 09
20
Q3 09
20
Q4 09
20
Q1 09
20
Q2 10
20
Q3 10
20
Q4 10
20
Q1 10
20
Q2 11
20
Q3 11
20
Q4 11
20
Q1 11
20
Q2 12
20
Q3 12
20
Q4 12
20
Q1 12
20
Q2 13
20
Q3 13
20
Q4 13
20
13

Sublease space (s.f.)

80,000,000

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

35
Q4 2013

Q3 2013

Q2 2013

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q3 2012

Q2 2012

Q1 2012

Q4 2011

Q3 2011

Q2 2011

Q1 2011

Q4 2010

Q3 2010

Q2 2010

Q1 2010

Q4 2009

Q3 2009

Q2 2009

Q1 2009

Q4 2008

Q3 2008

Q2 2008

Q1 2008

Q4 2007

Q3 2007

Q2 2007

Quarterly percent change

Marketed rents increase 0.4 percent during the quarter,
registering their 12th straight quarter of increases

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

36
Rental growth fastest in CBD Class A (+15.3 percent)
and suburban Class C (+7.3 percent) space
$50

Class A (CBD)

Class A (suburban)

Class B (CBD)

Class B (suburban)

Class C (CBD)

Class C (suburban)

$40
A

$35
$30
$25

BC

Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)

$45

$20
$15
$10
2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

37
U.S. office market moves farther along the clock as
more markets shift into landlord-favorable territory
Seattle-Bellevue
Houston, San Francisco
San Francisco Peninsula, Silicon Valley

Peaking
phase

Falling
phase

Rising
phase

Bottoming
phase

Dallas

Austin
Pittsburgh
Denver
Boston, Orange County
Tampa, United States
Atlanta, Indianapolis, Los Angeles,
New York, Richmond
Miami, San Diego
Cleveland, Cincinnati,
Minneapolis, Oakland-East Bay,
Philadelphia, Portland, San Antonio
Charlotte, Detroit, Fairfield County, Milwaukee,
Sacramento, St. Louis, Westchester County
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

Orlando, West Palm Beach
Baltimore, New Jersey
Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville
Washington, DC
Chicago, Columbus, Hampton Roads,
Phoenix, Raleigh-Durham

38
Faster rent growth and declining vacancy in CBDs
contributing to faster movement along clock
Midtown South (New York)

Seattle-Bellevue
San Francisco

Peaking
phase

Falling
phase

Rising
phase

Bottoming
phase

Austin, Houston
Miami
Denver
Pittsburgh, San Jose CBD
Boston, Philadelphia
Atlanta, Tampa, United States CBD
Greenwich CBD, Indianapolis
Midtown (New York),
Portland, Stamford CBD
Oakland-East Bay
Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Los Angeles,
Minneapolis, White Plains CBD
Charlotte, Dallas, Jacksonville, Milwaukee,
Raleigh-Durham, San Antonio
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

Baltimore, Orlando, Phoenix,
West Palm Beach
St. Louis
Sacramento
Chicago, Columbus, Downtown
(New York), Fort Lauderdale,
Richmond, San Diego. Washington, DC

39
Suburban markets still struggling with elevated
vacancy, with more submarkets tenant-friendly
Silicon Valley
Seattle-Bellevue

Peaking
phase

Falling
phase

Rising
phase

Dallas, Houston, San Francisco

Bottoming
phase

San Francisco Peninsula
Cambridge

Austin, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles, Portland (Westside)
Denver, Richmond
Indianapolis, Orange County, Tampa
Baltimore, Boston, Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia,
San Diego, United States Suburbs
Atlanta, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee,
Minneapolis, Oakland- East Bay,
Sacramento, San Antonio, St. Louis
Charlotte
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

Southern New Jersey
Jacksonville
Orlando, West Palm Beach
Fort Lauderdale
Miami, Central and Northern New
Jersey, Northern Virginia
Northern Delaware, Raleigh-Durham,
Suburban Maryland
Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Fairfield
County, Hampton Roads, Portland
(East, Vancouver), Westchester County

40
Since 2010, quarterly rent growth more volatile in
CBD than suburbs, but faster on average
CBD rent growth

Suburban rent growth

3.5%

Quarterly rent change (%)

2.5%
CBD average:
1.1%

1.5%
0.5%
-0.5%

Suburban
average: 0.0%

-1.5%
-2.5%
-3.5%
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

41
Slightly faster rental growth in suburbs results in rent
gap narrowing by $0.12 in Q4
$40

CBD

Suburbs

$38
$36
$34

$15.48

$32
$30
$28

$11.36

$26

$24
$22
$20
2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

42
Similar rental growth rates resulted in the Class A
premium falling slightly for the second time in 2013
$5.00

Difference between Class A and overall rents

$4.80
$4.60
$4.40

$4.20
$4.00
$3.80

$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

43
Concessions wobbling near end of 2013, but overall
decline in TI allowances and free months vs. 2012
Months

Average rent abatement (months)

$ PSF

Average tenant improvement allowance

7

$31.00
6.1

6

6.2
5.7

$30.00
5.5

5.1

5.3

5

$28.00

4.1
4

$29.00

$27.00

3.5

$26.00

3

$25.00

2

$24.00
1

$23.00

0

$22.00
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

44
As vacancy falls, so does leverage for tenants and tenant
build-out allowances from landlords
Average TI package

Total vacancy

$31

19.0%

18.5%

18.0%
$29
17.5%

$28

Total vacancy

Average TI package

$30

17.0%
$27
16.5%
$26

16.0%

$25

15.5%
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

45
New supply coming to market slowly increasing, but
still well below historic norms
140,000,000
120,000,000

Historical average
amount of completions
(s.f.) per year

Completions (s.f.)

100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

46
The majority of new construction is now in suburbs
rather than CBDs
Class A (CBD)

100%

Class A (suburban)

Class B (CBD)

Class B (suburban)

Class C (CBD)

Class C (suburban)

90%

Under construction (s.f.)

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

47
Deliveries in Q4 bring overall construction volumes
down slightly, but geographic spread increasing
Spec construction underway
in many markets, including:
Atlanta
Charlotte
Dallas
Houston
New York
Northern Virginia
Seattle
San Francisco
Silicon Valley
Washington, DC

160,000,000
140,000,000

Under construction (s.f.)

120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

48
The vast majority of new completions are Class A, with
an increasing share in the suburbs
Class A (CBD)

Class A (suburban)

Class B (CBD)

Class B (suburban)

Class C (CBD)

25,000,000

Class C (suburban)

YT D completions (s.f.)

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0
2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

49
27.7 percent of markets reporting an increase in
construction starts…
Up

Neutral

Down

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%

30%
20%
10%
0%
2011

2012

2013

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

50
…and no specific region was home to a majority of
starts
900,000
800,000

Construction starts (s.f.)

700,000

802,500

645,000

600,000
500,000

465,001
423,331

400,000

360,000

358,934

321,000

300,000
200,000
100,000

309,500

300,425
231,733

220,000
168,220

126,652
49,099

0

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research

51
Into 2014 and 2015, the spreading and enhancement of growth
nationally across industries and geographies highly benefits diversified
economies like Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Atlanta,
Phoenix, among others.

…
>> Access our complete
report on the current state of
the U.S. market

©2014 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,
Inc. All rights reserved. All
information contained herein is
from sources deemed reliable;
however, no representation or
warranty is made to the
accuracy thereof.

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U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013

  • 1. 2014 will be the year of a diversifying and expanding office recovery United States Office Review Q4 2013
  • 2. … Landlord confidence continues to grow; for the 12th consecutive quarter, asking rents increased and decreased concessions nationally. Further, when examining tenant leverage ahead across markets, less than 10 percent of geographies JLL tracks will be categorized as tenant-favorable in 2015.
  • 3. Ending 2013, growth no longer concentrated as strongly in specific regions or industry niche markets Leasing activity • Q4 posted 61.4 million square feet of leasing activity. • Leasing levels down 6.1 percent from Q3 2013. • Annual 2013 leasing levels up 6.5 percent from 2012 Absorption • Absorption levels increase with 15th consecutive quarter of occupancy growth. • Absorption gains totaled 13.2 million square feet in the quarter and overall in 2013 nearly reached 40.0 million square feet, the highest volume in the recovery so far. • Throughout the year, New York, Houston, Dallas, the Bay Area and Seattle were the largest contributors to absorption nationally. Vacancy • Vacancy dropped 20 basis points to a recovery low of 16.6 percent during the quarter and dropped from 17.0 percent last year.. • CBD vacancy fell below 14.0 to 13.9 percent and in the suburbs, vacancy levels closed the year at 18.2 percent. Rents • • • • • Construction • Construction starts no longer dominated by specific geographies. • Most markets will not see new deliveries enter the market until 2015, presenting challenges for large tenants, especially in CBDs. Tenants have far less leverage across urbanized, core markets, especially in Trophy and Class A buildings. Rents have now increased in 12 of the past 13 quarters. Class A rent growth continues to trump Class B rent movement across the board. Rents growing over four times faster in CBDs than suburbs. Concessions continue to erode and are now at 2008 levels nationally. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 3
  • 4. Consistent number of markets posting quarterly increases in leasing activity (45.8 percent of markets) Up Neutral Down 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 4
  • 5. Leasing activity totaled 61.4 million square feet, down 6.1 percent from Q3 90,000,000 26-quarter trailing average 80,000,000 Leasing activity (s.f.) 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 5
  • 6. Q4 2013 posted leasing activity 14.0 percent higher than Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2012 Q4 2011 Q4 2010 Q4 2009 Q4 2008 Q4 2007 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 Leasing activity (s.f.) Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 6
  • 7. Annual leasing activity 6.5 percent higher in 2013 than in 2012, but third-highest during recovery 300,000,000 Leasing activity (s.f.) 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 7
  • 8. A wide range of geographies leasing fastest relative to supply Leasing activity as percentage of inventory 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% New York San Francisco San Francisco Peninsula Minneapolis Boston Silicon Valley Fairfield County St. Louis Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 8
  • 9. Q4 marks 15th consecutive quarter of positive net absorption, highest since 2007 Quarterly net absorption (as % of inventory) 1.5% 15-year trailing quarterly average 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 9
  • 10. 2013 annual net absorption reaches 1.1 percent of inventory, surpasses 15-year average Net absorption as a percent of inventory 5.0% 15-year trailing annual average 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 10
  • 11. Suburban Class A space comprises the majority of absorption, with Class B presence growing Class A (CBD) Class B (suburban) 50,000,000 Class A (suburban) Class C (CBD) 2011 2012 Class B (CBD) Class C (suburban) YTD net absorption (s.f.) 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 -10,000,000 2010 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 11
  • 12. Geographic spread of the recovery and growth in New York make 2013 the most balanced year of the recovery NYC and DC Tech markets Energy markets 2010 2012 Sunbelt All other markets 2010: New York and DC comprise 70.0 percent of absorption. 2011: Tech and energy emerge, comprising 52.5 percent of absorption; New York and DC fall to 5.1 percent. 2012: Sunbelt markets grow to over one-third of absorption, but tech and energy remain dominant (58.2 percent of 2012 absorption); New York and DC both post negative annual absorption. 2013: No sector or region contributes more than one quarter of annual absorption, all others contribute 26.4 percent. 11.1% 26.4% 2011 2013 21.6% 18.6% 22.3% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 12
  • 13. Energy, tech and Sunbelt markets all posting aboveaverage absorption; energy and tech remain ahead 3.5% Energy markets YTD net absorption (% of stock) 3.0% Tech markets Sunbelt markets U.S. average 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 13
  • 14. New York’s strong Q4 performance makes East Coast largest contributor for the first time since Q2 2011 East Coast Central West Coast 100% 80% Share of quarterly absorption (%) 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 14
  • 15. Although a tiny portion of inventory, Atlanta and Florida contributing disproportionately to recovery 7.4% 20,000,000 22.9% Atlanta 1,261.6% Florida 63.3% Rest of East Coast Net absorption (s.f.) 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 -5,000,000 -10,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 15
  • 16. Class B absorption has risen in line with Class A rents as tenants seek affordable space options… Class B net absorption 0.8% Class A rent $36 $35 $34 0.4% $33 0.2% $32 0.0% $31 -0.2% $30 -0.4% Class A average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) Class B YT D net absorption (as % of stock) 0.6% $29 -0.6% $28 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 16
  • 17. …but Class A remains the leader in absorption since 2011 Trophy & Class A net absorption Class B and C net absorption 83.4 18.4 m.s.f. m.s.f. 2011-2013 2011-2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 17
  • 18. …with 80.9 of Q4 absorption being Class A space 350% 295.2% Class A share of quarterly absorption 300% 250% 200% 150% 133.5% 100% 98.5% 93.9% 74.5% 82.0% 76.3% 78.3% 73.4% 80.9% 63.5% 45.2% 50% 0% 2011 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 18
  • 19. Even in large block-deprived CBDs, Class A space responsible for nearly all absorption… 180% 166.2% Class A share of quarterly absorption 160% 140% 120% 100.0% 100% 90.4% 106.1% 88.8% 88.1% 80.8% 92.0% 86.5% 74.8% 80% 60% 49.6% 40% 20% 0.0% 0% 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 19
  • 20. …while the percentage has slowly fallen in the suburbs 180% 167.8% Class A share of quarterly absorption 160% 140% 120% 116.9% 102.5% 97.9% 100% 84.3% 85.3% 75.1% 80% 73.4% 72.8% 70.3% 62.3% 60% 43.2% 40% 20% 0% 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 20
  • 21. Driving the B market of late? Creative space in tech hubs CBD year-end net absorption (% of stock) 6.0% Class A Class B 5.4% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% -1.0% -0.7% -0.5% -2.0% Austin Portland Detroit San Francisco Seattle Oakland-East Bay Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 21
  • 22. Overall, Class A continues to trump commodity according to most indicators of absorbed space in 2013 has been Class A per square foot difference between Class A and B space… the rate at which Class A rates are growing compared to Class B difference between Class A and Class B total vacancy Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 22
  • 23. Total vacancy still falling very slowly, but levels now the lowest since before 2009 20% 19% 16.6% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% Q4 2010 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 10% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 23
  • 24. Still, vacancy levels remain near historical highs 20% 16.6% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 6% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 24
  • 25. Total vacancy down across building classes and geographies, but with significant variance 22% Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) B Total vacancy (%) 20% 18% 16% C A 14% 12% 10% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 25
  • 26. Office growth being driven by atypical tenant industries Industry Employment base Most affected office markets to date State Government Federal Government Media-print Finance / banking Law firms Consulting Accounting Telecom Retail / consumer goods Education Media digital and TV Green energy / clean technology Real estate (Residential) Contracting Contracting Contracting Contracting Contracting (Rightsizing) Contracting (Rightsizing) Contracting (Rightsizing) Stable Stable Growing Growing Growing Growing California, Illinois, New Jersey Washington, DC LA, NYC NYC, Charlotte, Chicago, Palm Beach, Pittsburgh Washington, DC, NYC, SF, Atlanta, LA NYC, Chicago, Washington, DC Chicago, NYC, LA NJ, Dallas, Atlanta NYC, Atlanta, Los Angeles Everywhere Atlanta, NYC, LA, Philadelphia, Washington, DC Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley, Denver Technology Growing Natural Gas / Oil Energy Biotech / pharmaceutical Growing Growing Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Austin, Seattle, Portland, Midtown South NYC, Cambridge, MA Denver, Houston, Dallas, Pittsburgh San Francisco, San Diego, NJ/Phil, Boston, RDU Southern CA, Nevada, AZ, FL, GA, Carolinas Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 26
  • 27. Demographics and technology are driving productivity and utilization and the next evolution of office space use 150 SF/employee average target density, down from 225 in 2009 15% Space reduction by U.S. law firms and financial services relocating 72% Of global CREs plan to aggressively increase density in next 3 years 50% Of the U.S. workforce was baby boomers in 2010. Gen Y will be 50% by 2020 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 27
  • 28. And as a result, law firms are shifting • • • • Going digital Elimination of law libraries One-sized fits all office Higher administrative ratios • • • Migration to glass boxes Migration to long and lean Migration to smaller floorplates 15.2% 20.5% 24.7% Giveback by law firm across the U.S. when relocating Giveback by law firm across the top 7 U.S. markets when relocating Giveback by law firm across DC when relocating Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 28
  • 29. Consulting / accounting are shifting • • • Benching Work flexibly and client officing Offices gone; collaboration rooms in • • Increasingly looking at new construction to meet efficiency standards Industry giving back most space 25.0% 225 s.f. 90 s.f. Giveback by consulting firms across the U.S. when relocating Average space per consultant in years past Average space per consultant in the most efficient firms today Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 29
  • 30. Technology companies are shifting • • • Benching is standard Less personal space, more shared and amenity space “Open Hangar” design preferred • • • Migration to Class B+ with character Space viewed as core to culture Remote work is waning 17.4% 14.2% 11.2% Percent increase in high tech service jobs since 2009 Vacancy rate in core tech markets, compared to 16.8% nationwide Growth in core tech market rents in 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 30
  • 31. Banks are shifting • • • Regulation and cost pressures forcing portfolio consolidation Offices shrinking Business units competing 10.1% Giveback by average bank across the U.S. when renewing (with headcount flat) • • • Branch reductions common Increasing importance of back office (2nd / 3rd –tier markets) Remote working increasing 86% 66% Percent of banking transactions that no longer need a teller Percent of surveyed banks planning to reduce their RE footprint Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 31
  • 32. Even the federal government is shifting • • • • Telecommuting Benching Collocations Minimal funds to implement • • • Consolidations in low cost buildings/submarkets Migration to off-center locations Disposition of underutilized assets. 170 s.f. $1.7 billion 15.9% Target utilization rate per employee for federally leased space Amount spent annually by GSA for properties deemed underutilized Average giveback by GSA across Metro DC when relocating in FY 2013 Source: GSA.gov, Jones Lang LaSalle Research 32
  • 33. After a slowdown earlier in the year, faster office-using employment growth pushes down vacancy Office-using employment Total vacancy 19.0% 18.5% 29,000 18.0% 28,500 17.5% 28,000 17.0% 27,500 16.5% 15.5% 2013 26,500 2012 16.0% 2011 27,000 Total vacancy Office-using employees (thousands) 29,500 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 33
  • 34. CBD vacancy drops 30 basis points to 13.9 percent; suburban down 10 basis points to 18.2 percent 25% 23% 21% Total vacancy (%) 19% 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 34
  • 35. Sublease space falls once again to 54.4 million square feet, nearing recovery low 100,000,000 90,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Q2 20 Q3 07 20 Q4 08 20 Q1 08 20 Q2 09 20 Q3 09 20 Q4 09 20 Q1 09 20 Q2 10 20 Q3 10 20 Q4 10 20 Q1 10 20 Q2 11 20 Q3 11 20 Q4 11 20 Q1 11 20 Q2 12 20 Q3 12 20 Q4 12 20 Q1 12 20 Q2 13 20 Q3 13 20 Q4 13 20 13 Sublease space (s.f.) 80,000,000 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 35
  • 36. Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2 2008 Q1 2008 Q4 2007 Q3 2007 Q2 2007 Quarterly percent change Marketed rents increase 0.4 percent during the quarter, registering their 12th straight quarter of increases 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 36
  • 37. Rental growth fastest in CBD Class A (+15.3 percent) and suburban Class C (+7.3 percent) space $50 Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) $40 A $35 $30 $25 BC Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) $45 $20 $15 $10 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 37
  • 38. U.S. office market moves farther along the clock as more markets shift into landlord-favorable territory Seattle-Bellevue Houston, San Francisco San Francisco Peninsula, Silicon Valley Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Dallas Austin Pittsburgh Denver Boston, Orange County Tampa, United States Atlanta, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, New York, Richmond Miami, San Diego Cleveland, Cincinnati, Minneapolis, Oakland-East Bay, Philadelphia, Portland, San Antonio Charlotte, Detroit, Fairfield County, Milwaukee, Sacramento, St. Louis, Westchester County Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research Orlando, West Palm Beach Baltimore, New Jersey Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville Washington, DC Chicago, Columbus, Hampton Roads, Phoenix, Raleigh-Durham 38
  • 39. Faster rent growth and declining vacancy in CBDs contributing to faster movement along clock Midtown South (New York) Seattle-Bellevue San Francisco Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Austin, Houston Miami Denver Pittsburgh, San Jose CBD Boston, Philadelphia Atlanta, Tampa, United States CBD Greenwich CBD, Indianapolis Midtown (New York), Portland, Stamford CBD Oakland-East Bay Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, White Plains CBD Charlotte, Dallas, Jacksonville, Milwaukee, Raleigh-Durham, San Antonio Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research Baltimore, Orlando, Phoenix, West Palm Beach St. Louis Sacramento Chicago, Columbus, Downtown (New York), Fort Lauderdale, Richmond, San Diego. Washington, DC 39
  • 40. Suburban markets still struggling with elevated vacancy, with more submarkets tenant-friendly Silicon Valley Seattle-Bellevue Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Dallas, Houston, San Francisco Bottoming phase San Francisco Peninsula Cambridge Austin, Pittsburgh Los Angeles, Portland (Westside) Denver, Richmond Indianapolis, Orange County, Tampa Baltimore, Boston, Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia, San Diego, United States Suburbs Atlanta, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Oakland- East Bay, Sacramento, San Antonio, St. Louis Charlotte Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research Southern New Jersey Jacksonville Orlando, West Palm Beach Fort Lauderdale Miami, Central and Northern New Jersey, Northern Virginia Northern Delaware, Raleigh-Durham, Suburban Maryland Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Fairfield County, Hampton Roads, Portland (East, Vancouver), Westchester County 40
  • 41. Since 2010, quarterly rent growth more volatile in CBD than suburbs, but faster on average CBD rent growth Suburban rent growth 3.5% Quarterly rent change (%) 2.5% CBD average: 1.1% 1.5% 0.5% -0.5% Suburban average: 0.0% -1.5% -2.5% -3.5% Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 41
  • 42. Slightly faster rental growth in suburbs results in rent gap narrowing by $0.12 in Q4 $40 CBD Suburbs $38 $36 $34 $15.48 $32 $30 $28 $11.36 $26 $24 $22 $20 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 42
  • 43. Similar rental growth rates resulted in the Class A premium falling slightly for the second time in 2013 $5.00 Difference between Class A and overall rents $4.80 $4.60 $4.40 $4.20 $4.00 $3.80 $3.60 $3.40 $3.20 $3.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 43
  • 44. Concessions wobbling near end of 2013, but overall decline in TI allowances and free months vs. 2012 Months Average rent abatement (months) $ PSF Average tenant improvement allowance 7 $31.00 6.1 6 6.2 5.7 $30.00 5.5 5.1 5.3 5 $28.00 4.1 4 $29.00 $27.00 3.5 $26.00 3 $25.00 2 $24.00 1 $23.00 0 $22.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 44
  • 45. As vacancy falls, so does leverage for tenants and tenant build-out allowances from landlords Average TI package Total vacancy $31 19.0% 18.5% 18.0% $29 17.5% $28 Total vacancy Average TI package $30 17.0% $27 16.5% $26 16.0% $25 15.5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 45
  • 46. New supply coming to market slowly increasing, but still well below historic norms 140,000,000 120,000,000 Historical average amount of completions (s.f.) per year Completions (s.f.) 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 46
  • 47. The majority of new construction is now in suburbs rather than CBDs Class A (CBD) 100% Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) 90% Under construction (s.f.) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 47
  • 48. Deliveries in Q4 bring overall construction volumes down slightly, but geographic spread increasing Spec construction underway in many markets, including: Atlanta Charlotte Dallas Houston New York Northern Virginia Seattle San Francisco Silicon Valley Washington, DC 160,000,000 140,000,000 Under construction (s.f.) 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 48
  • 49. The vast majority of new completions are Class A, with an increasing share in the suburbs Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) 25,000,000 Class C (suburban) YT D completions (s.f.) 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 49
  • 50. 27.7 percent of markets reporting an increase in construction starts… Up Neutral Down 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 50
  • 51. …and no specific region was home to a majority of starts 900,000 800,000 Construction starts (s.f.) 700,000 802,500 645,000 600,000 500,000 465,001 423,331 400,000 360,000 358,934 321,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 309,500 300,425 231,733 220,000 168,220 126,652 49,099 0 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research 51
  • 52. Into 2014 and 2015, the spreading and enhancement of growth nationally across industries and geographies highly benefits diversified economies like Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Phoenix, among others. …
  • 53. >> Access our complete report on the current state of the U.S. market ©2014 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.