The image-of-america-2008-2009

1

The Image of America:
Then (2008) - and Now (2009)

Presented by: Sir Robert Worcester
English-Speaking Union
Paris
21 September 2009

Understanding public opinion research 2

We measure perceptions, not facts

Two kinds of findings we bring to our clients:
- reality, and misperception

Five things we find: behaviour, knowledge, and…

three levels of ‘views’:
– Opinions

– Attitudes

– Values

Measuring images
4

1. You can’t measure images in a vacuum
2. Familiarity breeds favourability, not
contempt
3. Images are built on trust
4. Images are built gradually, but can be
destroyed instantly

5

Image of America:
Then

America wrong to bomb Libya: 1986
7

Q. “Do you think President Reagan Q. “Do you think Mrs Thatcher was right or
was right or wrong to order the wrong to give President Reagan permission
bombing of Libya on Monday night in for American bombers to fly from British
reaction to Libya’s support given to bases to participate in the attack on Libya?”
terrorists?”

DK DK
5% 4%
Right Right

29% 25%

66% 71%
Wrong Wrong

Gallup & Harris MORI
Base: c. 1,000 British adults aged 16+ on 17 April 1986 (all three, on same day

“Hatred of America Unites the World” (Sunday Telegraph, 25.02.07)
8

By Niall Ferguson

“Being hated is no fun…
and few people hate being hated more than Americans…
Being hated is what happens to dominant empires…
That’s a feeling American soldiers in Baghdad must know pretty well…
The paradox of unfriendly allies is not confined to the Middle East…
Anti-Americanism is nothing new in European politics…
Back in 1999, 83 per cent of British people surveyed… said they had a
favourable opinion of the United States…
But by 2006… that proportion had fallen to 56%.”

British were favourable to USA, even in 2006
9

Q Please now tell me how favourable or unfavourable your overall opinions
or impression is of each country I read out. Please keep in mind that it is
your overall opinion that we are interested in.
Very Mainly Neither/ Mainly Very Don’t know % net
favourable favourable nor unfav. unfav /no opinion % net change
favour- from
able 2005
4%
20%
70%
50%
+67% 23% 3% 4% +67% N/A

+67% 2%
21% 68% 47% 26% 1% 5% +67% N/A

+38% 9%
8% 47% 39% 39% 8% 5% +38% +6%

+30% 18%
11% 48% 37% 32% 13% 5% 2% +30% -2%

18%
11% 53% 42%
+35% 26% 13% 5%3% +35% +6%

Base: British adults (1,064) 2-7 March 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI

British concerns about American influence
10

Q Please tell me whether you think America has too much, too little, or
about the right amount of influence on each of the following…

Too Much About right Too little
Editors
Defence
57%
Policy 67% 16% 7% 9%
British
60%
Television 59% 22% 8% 11%
British 12%
Industry 56% 24% 7% 13%
28%
British
Economy 51% 27% 11% 11%
28%
British
Morality 31% 27% 11% 31%


British image of the USA - 2006
11

Q “Here is a list of things that some people have said about various
countries. Would you look through the list and call out the
numbers of those things that you think apply to America?”
% change
Top Mentions from 2005

Good place for holiday 68% +8

Essential military ally 44% 0

Good place to do business 40% +3

Sound economic base 27% +2

Inept in foreign policy 27% +3

Understands Britain well
24% +3
Contributes to Britain’s
0
economic prosperity 21%
Leader in solving world
0
problems 20%

Reasons for British unfavourability towards USA
12

‘Others’ reasons for unfavourability
They didn’t have the flood in 2006 [It] seems very
New Orleans under control – superficial and self-
not bothered with the poor centred

US Government is
against other cultures;
Fanatical about especially the Islamic
Christianity world

They are racist.
Death sentence


Reasons for British unfavourability towards USA
13

They seem to They think they are
think they are in 2006 so much better than
charge of the anyone else
whole world

(they are) not
caring, such as
Religious when New
fundamentalism Orleans was
neglected during
the crisis
I don’t like
their
President
Too
much
crime


Images by comparison: perceptual map
14

2006
Rather unfriendly Supports strong EU

Competitor not ally

Leader in solving
Policies disrupt world problems
Contributes to Britain’s Germany
NATO
Inept foreign policy economic prosperity
Good training system
Poor educational system Good place to
Essential military ally business
do Making an effective effort to
USA solve its domestic problems
Shares Britain’s
economic goals Better political Good health service
Helpful to Britain in system than Britain
resolving problems
Sound economic base
Understands Britain well
Strong environmental
Good for holiday policy
Canada

Base: Adults: Britain (1,064), 2 - 7 March 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI

Was it us, or them? - 2008
15

Q. “Please tell me if you have a very Q. “Please tell me if you have a very
favourable, somewhat favourable, favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat
somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable or very unfavourable view of
unfavourable view of the United Americans?”
States?”
Very
DK favourable
Very 8% 53%
unfavourable 11% 13% 70%
10% 9%
12% 5%
37% 4%
+16 +70
45% Somewhat
25% favourable
57%
Somewhat
unfavourable
Swing = 27

Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2008

Americans, and USA, regarded rather differently (2008)
16

100%
Opinion of the United States
HIGH/ 2
R = 0.77
LOW Kenya
80% S. Korea
Nigeria Canada
Britain Mexico
Lebanon
France India HIGH/
60% Poland
Germany Russia HIGH
Brazil Indonesia
50% Argentina
Japan
40% Spain China
Jordan

Egypt
20% Pakistan

LOW/ Turkey LOW/
LOW HIGH
0%
0% 20% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100%

Opinion of Americans

New US President’s Foreign Policy?
17

Q What is your view of the new US President’s US foreign policy, will it change for the
better, not change that much, or change for the worse?

% Change for the better % Change for the worse
USA 45 5

Britain 53 3
Germany 64 1
France 68 1
Spain 67 1
Russia 32 14
Turkey 29 13
Pakistan 20 24
Indonesia 48 7

Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2008

18

Image of America:
Now

19

International Attitudes

Favourable views of the USA – 2000 - 2009
20

Q Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable
or very unfavorable opinion of the United States.
%
90
83%
Very/Somewhat Favourable (all now above 50%)
80
France 75%
EUROPE
70 Britain 69%
Germany 64%
60
53% Spain 58%
50
42% Average
40 increase in
33% favourability
Core support:
30 = + 73%
Britain c. 50% 31%

20 France c. 40%
Spain c. 35%
10 Germany c. 30%
The Bush Years Obama
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Base: c. 27,000 adults in 25 countries Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2009
Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week

21

100
%
Very/Somewhat Favourable (Others now above 50%)
90

80 S. Korea 78%
70% India 76%
70 Poland 67%
68% Canada 68%
66% Indonesia 63%
60 Brazil 61%
50% Japan 59%
50 55% Lebanon 55%
51%
Others 47%
40 Average
Kenya 90% (up from 87%) Average increase in
37%
30
Nigeria 79% (up from 64%) increase in favourability
favourability
Israel 71% (down from 78%)
20 = +10%
Mexico 69% (Up from 47%) = +10%
10
Argentina 38% (up from 22%)
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008


22

%
90
Very/Somewhat Favourable (still below 50%)
80
Average
70
increase in
favourability
60
= +2%
50
46% China 47%
40 Russia 44%
41%
30
Egypt 27%
22% Jordan 26%
20 19%
19% Pakistan 16%
10 Turkey 14%
12%
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008


Confidence in US President
23

Q How much confidence do you have in US President George W. Bush to do the
right thing regarding world affairs?” (2008) / US President Barack Obama…? (2009)
Obama lift
% A lot/some % Not too much/none
USA 37 +24% 60
+70%
Britain 16 81
Germany 14 +79% 85
France 13 +78% 87
Spain 8 +64% 88
Russia 22 +15% 69
Turkey 2 +31% 89
Pakistan 7 +5% 61
Indonesia 23 +48% 66

Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2008/2009

Low Confidence in Bush, Most high on Obama
24

100%
HIGH/ HIGH/
LOW HIGH
80%
Kenya
George W. Bush
Confidence in

60%
Nigeria
India

LOW/ Poland LOW/
40%
LOW Lebanon HIGH
China S. Korea
Canada
Russia Indonesia Japan
20% Britain
Mexico Brazil Germany
Egypt France
Jordan Spain
Pakistan Argentina
Turkey
0%
R2 = .22
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Confidence in Barack Obama
Base: c. 27,000 adults in 25 countries Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2008/9

“Hello, I’m Barack Obama” (in Port of Spain, to Chavez)
26

The US should exert strong leadership
28

Q. “How desirable is it that the United States exert strong leadership in world affairs?”

2008 2009

Very
DK desirable
Very 7% 38%
desirable 5% 12% 58%
3% 37%
19% 10%
56% 31%
- 22 27% + 21
Somewhat
desirable 46%
37%
Somewhat
desirable
Swing = 20.5

Base: 7,015 European Union citizens, Fr, Germ, Italy, Neth, Poland, UK, Port. (Source: TNS/GMF)

Respecting human and citizens rights bring respect
29

Q, “Thinking about the attributes listed please choose the top two attributes that you think
are the most important for a country to have in order to be respected.” (Average of Top Two Attributes)
Respects human rights 36%
What they are
Respects the rights of its citizens 26% looking for
Contributes to international peace and cooperation 23%

Has a strong economy 21%

Has strong democratic values and institutions 21%

Its people enjoy a good standard of living 21%
What the USA is
Respects its neighbors and other countries 14%
talking about
Makes a positive difference in the world 14%

Contributes to international socio-economic development 9%

Contributes to the global economy 7%

Is a good country in which to invest 3%

Has a strong commitment to culture and the arts 3%

Nov 2008…Sample of c. 1,000 per Country http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/ Source: Ipsos North America

Attributes associated with the United States
30

Q, “How does the United States compare with other countries, based on the
following attributes?” (% Well above average + Slightly above average)
Its people enjoy a good standard of living 59%

Contributes to the global economy 59%

Has strong democratic values and institutions 51%
What the USA is
Has a strong economy 48% talking about
Contributes to international socio-economic
48%
development

Respects the rights of its citizens 46%

Has a strong commitment to culture and the arts 40%

Respects human rights 39%
What they are
Is a good country in which to invest 39% looking for
Makes a positive difference in the world 37%

Contributes to international peace and
28%
cooperation

Respects its neighbors and other countries 22%


Respects human rights
31

Q “How does the United States compare with other countries,
based on the following attributes?” Well above average Slightly above average
Total 15% 24% 39%

India 44% 31% 75%

The United States 32% 29% 61%

Poland 24% 37% 61%

China 23% 29% 52%

The Czech Republic 18% 34% 52%

South Korea 18% 34% 52%

Russia 24% 27% 51%

Turkey 20% 21% 41%

Italy 14% 26% 40%

Japan 13% 27% 40%

Great Britain 13% 26% 39%

Canada 13% 26% 39%

France 11% 22% 33%

Australia 11% 22% 33%

Brazil 11% 19% 30%

Mexico 10% 19% 29%

Spain 7% 17% 24%

The Netherlands 6% 18% 24%

Belgium 6% 17% 23%

Germany 4% 15% 19%

Sweden 3% 15% 18%

Argentina 6% 10% 16%

Respects human rights
32

based on the following attributes?” Slightly below average Well below average
Total 12% 7% 19%

Sweden 23% 12% 35%

Spain 19% 12% 31%

Belgium 20% 10% 30%


Germany 19% 10% 29%

Mexico 16% 12% 28%


France 17% 9% 26%

Brazil 14% 10% 24%


Canada 12% 7% 19%

Italy 11% 5% 16%


Turkey 7% 8% 15%

Russia 9% 4% 13%

China 7% 6% 13%

The United States 10% 2%12%

Japan 9% 2%11%

The Czech Republic 7% 2%9%


Poland 4%2% 6%

India 2% 3%
1%


Respect the rights of its citizens
33

Total 19% 27% 46%

India 51% 30% 81%

Poland 29% 37% 66%

China 30% 35% 65%

Russia 31% 29% 60%




Turkey 30% 25% 55%

Japan 17% 33% 50%


Italy 18% 28% 46%

Mexico 16% 27% 43%

Canada 14% 26% 40%

Brazil 17% 22% 39%


France 14% 23% 37%


Spain 11% 21% 32%


Belgium 7% 21% 28%

Germany 5% 23% 28%

Sweden 3% 18% 21%


Respect the rights of its citizens 34

Total 16% 11% 27%


Spain 26% 18% 44%

Mexico 21% 21% 42%

Sweden 27% 14% 41%

Germany 25% 13% 38%

Turkey 14% 22% 36%

Belgium 22% 13% 35%

Brazil 19% 16% 35%


France 20% 10% 30%


Italy 15% 8% 23%


China 10% 11% 21%

Canada 12% 8% 20%

Russia 11% 8% 19%

Japan 14% 4% 18%



The United States 7% 2%9%

Poland 5% 4% 9%

India 4%2% 6%


Contributes to international peace and cooperation
35

Total 10% 18% 28%

India 32% 28% 60%


Poland 19% 27% 46%



China 12% 22% 34%


Italy 12% 19% 31%

Canada 11% 19% 30%



Japan 7% 23% 30%

France 9% 18% 27%

Spain 8% 14% 22%

Belgium 6% 16% 22%

Germany 4% 14% 18%

Brazil 7% 10% 17%

Russia 6% 11% 17%

Mexico 5% 11% 16%

Sweden 3% 12% 15%

Turkey 5% 7% 12%

Argentina 3% 5% 8%


Contributes to international peace and cooperation
36

Total 19% 24% 43%


Turkey 17% 52% 69%

Mexico 21% 44% 65%

Russia 31% 28% 59%

Brazil 24% 32% 56%

Sweden 24% 28% 52%

Spain 22% 26% 48%

Germany 23% 23% 46%

Belgium 23% 21% 44%

China 18% 24% 42%

Canada 20% 21% 41%

France 19% 21% 40%

Italy 18% 17% 35%

Japan 18% 16% 34%






Poland 14% 14% 28%

India 9% 7% 16%



Defence barely registers on the
current list of public concerns… 38

Q. What would you say are the most important issues facing Britain today?

Top mentions % Change since
April 2009
Economy 59 -6

Race relations/immigration 30 +1

Crime/law and order 30 +2

Unemployment 20 -3

Morality/Individual Behaviour 14 +6

NHS 13 -2

Education/Schools 12 -1

Inflation/prices 10 -3

Pollution/Environment 8 0
Housing 8 +2
Defence/Foreign Affairs/ 7 -2
Terrorism
Base: 1,006 British adults, fieldwork 21 – 27 May 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI

…indeed concern with defence is at its
lowest point since before 9/11 39

Q. What would you say are the most important issues facing Britain today?
Howard Cameron Brown
% becomes
Tory Leader
becomes
Tory Leader
becomes
PM
70 War in
Iraq London
Bombs
60 9/11

Failed terror
50 attacks in
London and
Glasgow
40
War in
Kosovo
30

20 Foot and
Mouth General Election -
crisis extra £400 million
10 allocated for
defence budget

0
May May May May May May May May May May May May May
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Base: 1,006 British adults, fieldwork 21 – 27 May 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI

Despite this, half the public think we
should be spending more on defence 40

Q. In the UK, for every £1 of public spending, 5 pence goes to Defence. Do you
think this is too much, too little, or about the right amount for the UK to be
spending on Defence?

Too little
50 51%

Swing = 13%
40 The right amount

33%
30

20

10
Too much
6%
0
Sept/Oct 2006 Feb/March 2007 Aug/Sept 2007 March/April 2008 Sept/Oct 2008 Mar-09

Base: 1,030 British adults, fieldwork 13 – 30 March 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI

Afghanistan: substantial gap favour US Anti-
terrorism v. agree keeping troops there 41

Q Do you favour or oppose U.S. led efforts in Afghanistan?
Q Should the U.S. and NATO keep troops in Afghanistan or remove them?
FAVOUR KEEP GAP
Russia 54 16 -38%
Poland 66 30 -36%
Brazil 60 26 -34%
China 50 16 -34%
Mexico 56 22 -34%
Spain 59 44 -25%
France 74 50 -24%
USA 81 57 -24%
Israel 80 59 -23%
Germany 68 48 -20%
Britain 64 46 -18%
Canada 59 43 -16%
Turkey 24 15 -9%
S. Korea 23 38 15%
Base: c. 750 – 1,200 adults in each country, May – June 2009 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project

42

Thank you.
Questions?
rmworcester@yahoo.com

Afghanistan: most favour US led anti-terrorism efforts
43

Q. Do you favour or oppose U.S. led efforts in Afghanistan?

2007 2009 +/-
Russia 50% 54% +4%
Poland 52 66 +14
Brazil 41 60 +19
China 26 50 +24
Mexico 31 56 +25
Spain 21 59 +38
France 43 74 +31 +19%
USA 70 81 +11
Israel 78 80 +2
Germany 42 68 +24
Britain 38 64 +26
Canada 37 69 +22
Turkey 9 24 +15
S. Korea 10 23 +13

Afghanistan: Keeping Troops in Afghanistan?
44

Q Should the U.S. and NATO keep troops in Afghanistan or remove them?
2008 2009 +/-
Russia 14 16 +2
Poland 24 30 +6
Brazil 19 26 +7
China 8 16 +8
Mexico 12 22 +10
Spain 34 44 +10
France 46 50 +4 +5%
USA 50 57 +7
Israel 59 59 0
Germany 43 48 +5
Britain 48 46 -2
Canada 43 43 0
Turkey 8 15 +7
S. Korea 37 38 +1

The image-of-america-2008-2009

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