Ipsos MORI's briefing back for 2011 Scottish Labour Party Conference presented by Mark Diffley

1. Scottish Labour Party Conference 2011
An Ipsos MORI briefing
October 2011
Contacts:
Mark.Diffley@ipsos.com
0131 240 3269

2. Holyrood

3. Our latest poll found Labour trailing the SNP by 21
points in Holyrood voting intention
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you
use your first vote?
Others – 3%
Lib Dem
7%
SNP
13%
Conservative
49%
28%
Labour
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).
Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

4. Just under a year ago, Labour looked on course to regain
power at Holyrood, but support has fallen considerably
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
Scottish Parliament Election Scottish Parliament Election
Result Result
Labour’s share of voting
50 intention has fallen by 13 49%
points in less than a year
40
30 28%
20
13%
10
7%
0 3%
Mar- Jun- Sep- Mar- Jun- May- 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- May- Aug-
05 05 05 06 06 07 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 11 11
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI

5. In the last year, Labour has lost support across
all groups…
Percentage point change since November 2010 (+/-)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+
-15
Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib
Dem Dem Dem Dem Dem Dem
Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, November 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

6. …almost exclusively to the SNP
Percentage point change since November 2010 (+/-)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Working Not working Retired Urban Rural
Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib Lab SNP Con Lib
Dem Dem Dem Dem Dem
Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, November 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

7. The challenge facing the new leader

8. Almost two thirds of Scots are satisfied with the way
Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Alex Salmond is doing his
job as First Minister?
Don’t know
9%
28%
Dissatisfied Satisfied
62%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

9. The new leader will have to do better than Iain
Gray…
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing their job as …?
Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Don’t know
Alex Salmond 51% 35% +16 14%
Annabel Goldie 32% 30% +2 38%
Iain Gray 33% 34% -1 33%
Tavish Scott 26% 34% -8 40%
Data from April 2011
Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 14-18 April2011

10. …particularly if they are to engage with the party’s
supporters
Q. Before this interview, how much, if anything, would you say you knew about Iain Gray?
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Iain Gray is doing his job as leader of the
Scottish Labour Party?
Knowledge among Satisfaction among
Labour supporters Labour supporters
Never heard Don’t know
of them 15% A great
19% deal
24%
Satisfied
23% 58%
Heard of but 18%
43%
knew nothing Dissatisfied
about
A little
Data from April 2011
Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 14-18 April 2011

11. Westminster

12. Labour fair slightly better in Westminster voting
intention, but still trail the SNP by 19 points
Q. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Others – 4%
Lib Dem
6%
SNP
15%
42%
Conservative
33%
Labour
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).
Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

13. The party’s share of voting intention has fallen since
the General Election
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
General Election General Election
Result Result
50
42%
40
30 33%
20
15%
10
6%
4%
0
Mar- May- Mar- Jun- 2007 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- May- Aug- Nov- Aug-
05 05 06 06 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 11
Year
Base: All certain to vote – March 2005 (434); March 2006 (526); June 2006 (520); August (571); November 2009 (576);
February 2010 (608); April 2010 (685); August 2010 (710); November 2010 (640); August 2011 (608)
Pre Aug 2009 – data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults face-to-face; Post Aug 2009 - Data collected among c.1,000
Scottish adults 18+ by telephone

14. Almost half of Scots are dissatisfied with his performance
as party leader, while only around a third are satisfied…
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Ed Miliband is doing his
job as Leader of the Labour Party?
Don’t know
16%
35%
Satisfied
49%
Dissatisfied
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

15. …and Ed still has some way to go to match the
popularity of his predecessor in Scotland
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as
Leader of the Labour Party/Prime Minister?
% Satisfied % Don’t know % Dissatisfied
Ed Miliband Gordon Brown
(August 2011) (April 2010)
16% 9%
35%
48%
44%
49%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 14-17 April 2011; 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

16. A considerable proportion of Labour supporters are
dissatisfied with his performance
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Ed Miliband is doing his
job as Leader of the Labour Party?
Don’t know
9%
36% 55% Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

17. Important issues

18. Unemployment is a particular concern for
Labour supporters
Q. What do you see as the most important issue facing Scotland today?
Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Scotland today?
Labour
(Most + others) supporters
Economy/economic situation 33% 28%
Unemployment/factory closure 31% 32%
/ lack of industry
Education/schools 26% 27%
Public spending cuts 20% 22%
NHS/hospitals/health care 17% 20%
Crime/law and order/ASB 14% 17%
Scottish independence/devolution 12% 11%
Immigration/immigrants
9% 8%
(race relations)
Sectarianism 7% 6%
Housing 7% 8%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

19. Among Scots, the economy is the most important issue but concern
about unemployment has risen sharply since the election
Q. What do you see as the most important/other issue facing Scotland today?
50
40
Economy 33%
30 Unemployment 31%
Education 26%
20 Public sector cuts 20%
NHS 17%
Crime 14%
10
0
Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI

20. Economic optimism

21. Scots are slightly more optimistic about the prospects for
the Scottish economy than they are for the UK economy
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same
or get worse over the next 12 months?
UK economy Scottish economy
Don’t know, 2% Don’t know, 4%
Improve Improve
18%
22%
Worsen 42%
49%
Worsen
30% Stay the
same
Stay the 32%
same
Base: All asked about UK economy (508); all asked about Scottish economy (494) Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011

22. Optimism has dipped slightly since April, though it is
not as low as this time last year
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same
or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)
UK economy Scotland's economy
% Net UK General Election Comprehensive Scottish Scottish
improve Spending budget Parliament
Review approved Election
30
20
10
0
Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11
-10
-20 -20%
-30
-31%
-40
-50
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone (half were asked about UK economy
and half about Scottish economy) Source: Ipsos MORI

23. Labour supporters are most pessimistic about the
Scottish economy
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same
or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)
% Improve % Worsen
28 24
15 15
48 44 33
53
Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

24. And have consistently been the most pessimistic
about the Scottish economy over the last year
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition of Scotland will improve,
stay the same or get worse over next 12 months?(% improve minus % worse)
Con Lab Lib SNP
% Net UK General Election Comprehensive Scottish budget Scottish Parliament
improve Spending Review approved election
50
40
30
20
10
+5%
0
Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11
-5%
-10
-14%
-20
-30
-40
-41%
-50
-60
Base: All asked about Scottish economy (509).
Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011

25. Independence

26. The majority of Scots support increased powers for
the Scottish Parliament…
Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask
whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish
Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland
remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or
disagree with the proposal:
Undecided/ Don’t know
8%
Support
Oppose 26%
66%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011
Source: Ipsos MORI

27. Only a third of Scots support independence
Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to
extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an
independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would
you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:
Undecided/ Don’t know
7%
Support
35%
Oppose
58%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011
Source: Ipsos MORI

28. Just over half of Labour supports support more
powers while the vast majority oppose independence
Q. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this
proposal:
Full fiscal powers Independence
Undecided/ Don’t know – 5% Undecided/ Don’t know – 1%
Support
Support 19%
Oppose
Oppose
38%
57%
80%
Base: All Labour supporter in Scottish Parliament election (174). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+,
25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

29. The majority of Scots would like the referendum to
be held earlier than the SNP plans
Q. When do you think the referendum should be held?
Don’t know – 3%
Never/shouldn’t
be held
6%
As soon as
28% possible
Between 2 and 5
years from now
37% 55%
27%
Within the next
2 years
Base: All certain to vote = 68% (703).
Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

30. Thank you
For further information contact
mark.diffley@ipsos.com on 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com 0131 240 3264
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