Ipsos MORI Scottish Independence Referendum June 2014

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Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI
Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
June 2014

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All (1,003); all certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014
Yes
34%
No
52%
Undecided
13%
All voters
Yes
36%
No
54%
Undecided
10%
Certain to vote

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Referendum voting intention – recent trend
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
No
Yes
Undecided

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Voting intention excluding undecided
Base: All excluding undecided (881); all certain to vote excluding undecided (766). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June
2014
Yes
40%
No
60%
All voters
Yes
40%
No
60%
Certain to vote

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Referendum voting intention excluding undecided –
recent trend
Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
No
Yes

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Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (660). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014
Yes
40%
No
60%
All definitely decided and certain to vote
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14
No
Yes

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Q. And, how likely would you be to vote in an immediate referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you
would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote?
Increase in self-reported turnout
Base: All. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
55+
All
16-24
% Absolutely certain to vote

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37%
Scots who…
 may not vote (18%)
 will vote but are undecided (8%)
 will vote but may change their vote (11%)

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18% 19% 17%
82% 81% 83%
All Yes voters No voters
Definitely
decided
May change
mind
Q. (To all giving a voting intention) Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may
change your mind before you vote? Q. (To all undecided voters) Which way are you most inclined to vote?
Definitely decided or might you change your
mind?
Base: All giving a voting intention (881). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13
% Definitely decided
No
Yes

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Q. (To all giving a voting intention) Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may
change your mind before you vote? Q. (To all undecided voters) Which way are you most inclined to vote?
Which way are undecided voters leaning?
Base: All undecided (122). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014
Yes
23%
No
32%
Undecided
45%
All undecided voters

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Long-term trend of support for independence
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

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Voting intention by gender
Base: All certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014
46%
46%
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Men Women
% voting Yes
28%
61%

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38%
51%
11%
Voting intention by age group
Yes
No
45%
44%
39%
51%
9%
31%
61%
9%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
% voting Yes

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Voting intention by levels of deprivation
41%
51%
33%
59%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
% voting Yes

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96%
10%
85%6%
Voting intention by party support
Yes
No
79%
10%
8%
81%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
SNP Lab Con Lib Dem
% voting Yes

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Technical details
• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents
(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 26th May – 1st June 2014
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless
otherwise stated

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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot

Ipsos MORI Scottish Independence Referendum June 2014

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