The latest polling from Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor reveals the majority of Britons think a hung parliament is bad for the country, both in regard to the 2010 result and looking forward to 2015. But despite this opposition to coalitions, half expect to see another coalition in 2015; 51% believe it is very/fairly likely, with 45% saying it is very/fairly unlikely.

1. POLITICAL MONITOR
January 2014
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000

2. Voting Intentions

3. Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
3
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
All giving a voting
intention: 81%
All certain to vote: 56%
7%
9%
Labour
11%
32%
Conservative
Lib Dem
11%
30%
13%
11%
UKIP
Other
37%
Conservative lead = -5
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th -14h January 2014, all certain to vote = 606
39%
Conservative lead = -9
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

4. Voting Intentions October ‘03 – January ‘14
(all certain to vote)
4
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
2005
Howard elected General
Brown as PM
(Jun 07)
(Nov 03)
Election
Cameron elected
50
(Dec 05)
2010
General
Election
40
39%
30
30%
20
13%
11%
10
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
Jan-04
Oct-03
0
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5. Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders

6. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
6
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
Swing from
Net
December
% Dissatisfied
% Satisfied
satisfaction
2013
David Cameron
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
53
37
59
-0.5
-28
+0.5
31
53
-14
29
57
Nigel Farage
The Government
39
-22
+1.5
-2
+1.5
-28
-1.5
35
31
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th - 14th January 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7. Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
0
Campbell
10
Brown
Cameron
50
30
Miliband
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
39%
35%
31%
29%
Farage
40
% satisfied
20
General
Election
Clegg elected
(Jan 08)
70
7
Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – January ‘14
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
60
Clegg

8. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
8
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction
CAMERON
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
THATCHER
BROWN
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAJOR
BLAIR
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9. David Cameron (satisfaction)
9
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
January 2006 – January 2014
January 2014
Don’t know
Satisfied
70
8%
Dissatisfied
60
50
39%
40
30
Satisfied
20
53%
10
0
Dissatisfied
Net = -14
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10. David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
10
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
January 2006 – January 2014
January 2014
Don’t know
5%
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
16%
79%
Net = +63
Base: 261 Conservative supporters 18+, 11th -14th January 2014
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

11. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2014)
11
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
Net satisfaction
CAMERON (2005-2010)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12. Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
12
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
January 2014
October 2010 – January 2014
Satisfied
Don’t know
70
16%
Dissatisfied
60
31%
50
40
30
20
Satisfied
10
0
53%
Dissatisfied
Net = -22
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th-14th January 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13. Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
13
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
January 2014
October 2010 – January 2014
Satisfied
Don’t know
70
10%
60
Satisfied
50
40
50%
30
20
40%
Dissatisfied
10
0
Dissatisfied
Net = +10
Base: 326 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14. Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
14
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
January 2014
Don’t know
January 2008 – January 2014
Satisfied
14%
70
Dissatisfied
60
29%
50
40
30
20
10
Satisfied
0
57%
Dissatisfied
Net = -28
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th-14th January 2014
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

15. Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
15
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
January 2014
Don’t know
35%
10%
January 2008 – January 2014
Satisfied
55%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Dissatisfied
Net = +20
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 102 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 11 th-14th January 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16. Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
16
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
All
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t know
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
1%
5%
27%
35%
Dissatisfied
37%
94%
Net = -2
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 90 UKIP supporters, 11th-14th January 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Net = +89
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17. The economy

18. Economic Optimism Index
18
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
January 2014
80
Don’t know
4%
Get worse
Improve
70
60
Get worse
Stay the same
50
26%
45%
40
30
20
26%
0
Stay the same
Improve
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
10
EOI = +19
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19. -80
Apr-97
Jul-97
Oct-97
Jan-98
Apr-98
Jul-98
Oct-98
Jan-99
Apr-99
Jul-99
Oct-99
Jan-00
Apr-00
Jul-00
Oct-00
Jan-01
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Index (get better minus get worse)
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
+28
-46
-60
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
19
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
40
+23
20
+19
0
-20
-40
-48
-56
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

20. Coalition MOT

21. The coalition: good or bad thing?
21
As you will know, the general election on May 6th 2010 resulted in a hung parliament where no party had an overall
majority. Do you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no party achieved an overall majority?
Good thing
May 2010
November 2010
April 2011
7%
8%
8%
55%
January 2014
8%
32%
34%
38%
40%
52%
Don’t know
Bad thing
58%
60%
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

22. Health of the Coalition
22
Do you think that the Coalition government is or is not…
% Is not
…working as a united team?
May 2010*
April 2011
July 2012
May 2013
January 2014
…dealing with the economic
crisis effectively?
May 2010*
April 2011
July 2012
May 2013
January 2014
…likely to last until 2015
July 2012
May 2013
January 2014
…providing stable
May 2010*
April 2011
July 2012
government?
May 2013
January 2014
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
* When asked in May 2010, the wording was ‘Do you think the new government will or will not…’
49
66
65
62
49
63
61
50
29
33
52
38
19
34
40
54
48
42
% Is
43
26
28
30
42
28
32
42
63
59
40
55
75
55
53
39
45
51
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

23. Is there appetite for another hung parliament?
Thinking about the next general election, do you think it will be a good thing or a bad thing for the country if
no party achieves an overall majority?
Don’t know
9%
Good thing
26%
Bad thing
65%
Conservative Labour
Good thing %
LibDem
UKIP
21
55
18
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
21
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
23

24. What about the perceived likelihood of another
coalition?
And regardless of your personal views of coalitions how likely or unlikely do you think it is that there will be
another coalition government after the next general election.
Don’t know
4%
Very unlikely
16%
Very likely
14%
51%
45%
29%
37%
Conservative Labour
Likely %
LibDem
UKIP
58
66
48
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
42
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
24

25. Who is each party’s supporters’ favoured
coalition partner?
25
You said that you would vote for/be inclined to support the Conservatives/Labour/Liberal Democrats/UKIP if there were a general election tomorrow.
Suppose that no party has an overall majority after the election. How strongly would you support or oppose the Conservatives/Labour/Liberal
Democrats/UKIP forming a coalition government with …INSERT if they had enough seats between them for a majority?
Form a coalition with the…
...UKIP
% Oppose
44
40
Conservative supporters
17
...Liberal Democrats
Liberal Democrat
supporters
63
21
…Conservatives
35
65
53
29
…Conservatives
UKIP supporters
…Labour
62
17
…Green Party
…Labour
70
21
...Liberal Democrats
Labour supporters
% Support
45
Base: 261 Conservative, 326 Labour, 102 Liberal Democrat and 90 UKIP supporters, all British adults 18+,
11th – 14th January 2014
64
47
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor