Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor indicates that George Osborne has taken a firm lead over Ed Balls as most capable Chancellor in the eyes of the public, having been neck-and-neck in August. Four in ten (40%) see Mr Osborne as the more capable Chancellor, an eleven percentage point lead over Mr Balls (29%). In August they were tied, with Mr Osborne on 36% and Mr Balls on 35%.

1. POLITICAL MONITOR
December 2013
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000

2. Voting Intentions

3. Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
3
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
All giving a voting
intention: 81%
All certain to vote: 54%
11%
Labour
8%
32%
Conservative
Lib Dem
11%
10%
10%
33%
9%
UKIP
Other
39%
Conservative lead = -7
Base 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9h December 2013, all certain to vote = 578
37%
Conservative lead = -4
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

4. Voting Intentions September ‘03 – December ‘13
(all certain to vote)
4
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
2005
Howard elected General
Brown as PM
(Jun 07)
(Nov 03)
Election
Cameron elected
50
(Dec 05)
2010
General
Election
40
37%
33%
30
20
10
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Sep-08
Jun-08
Mar-08
Dec-07
Sep-07
Jun-07
Mar-07
Dec-06
Sep-06
Jun-06
Mar-06
Dec-05
Sep-05
Jun-05
Mar-05
Dec-04
Sep-04
Jun-04
Mar-04
Dec-03
Sep-03
0
10%
9%
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5. Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders

6. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
6
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
Swing from
Net
November
% Dissatisfied
% Satisfied
satisfaction
2013
David Cameron
39
52
-13
+4
Nick Clegg
57
28
-29
+7
Ed Miliband
54
29
-25
-1
33
-5
+4
32
-25
+3
38
Nigel Farage
The Government
58
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th - 9th December 2013. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7. Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
0
Campbell
10
Farage
40
30
Miliband
% satisfied
Cameron
50
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
39%
33%
29%
28%
Brown
20
General
Election
Clegg elected
(Jan 08)
70
7
Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – December ‘13
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
60
Clegg

8. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
8
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction
CAMERON
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
THATCHER
BROWN
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAJOR
BLAIR
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9. David Cameron (satisfaction)
9
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
December 2013
January 2006 – December 2013
Satisfied
Don’t know
70
9%
Dissatisfied
60
50
39%
40
30
Satisfied
20
52%
10
0
Dissatisfied
Net = -13
Base 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10. David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
10
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
December 2013
January 2006 – December 2013
Don’t know
Satisfied
5%
Dissatisfied
17%
78%
Net = +61
Base: 249 Conservative supporters 18+, 7th -9th December 2013
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

11. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2013)
11
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
Net satisfaction
CAMERON (2005-2010)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12. Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
12
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
December 2013
October 2010 – December 2013
Satisfied
Don’t know
70
16%
Dissatisfied
60
29%
50
40
30
20
Satisfied
10
0
54%
Dissatisfied
Net = -25
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th-9th December 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13. Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
13
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
December 2013
Don’t know
October 2010 – December 2013
Satisfied
70
13%
60
Satisfied
50
40
47%
30
20
41%
Dissatisfied
10
0
Dissatisfied
Net = +6
Base: 327 Labour supporters 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14. Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
14
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
December 2013
Don’t know
Satisfied
January 2008 – December 2013
70
Dissatisfied
60
15%
28%
50
40
30
20
10
Satisfied
0
57%
Dissatisfied
Net = -29
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+,7th-9th December 2013
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

15. Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
15
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
December 2013
Don’t know
January 2008 – December 2013
Satisfied
14%
50%
36%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Dissatisfied
Net = +14
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 84 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 7th-9th December 2013. N.B. small base size indicative only
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16. Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
16
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
All
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t know
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
6%
28%
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
6%
33%
87%
38%
Net = -5
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 62 UKIP supporters, 7th-9th December 2013. N.B. small base size indicative only
Net = +81
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17. The economy

18. Economic Optimism Index
18
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
December 2013
80
Don’t know
Get worse
Improve
2%
70
60
Stay the same
Get worse
50
26%
44%
40
30
20
27%
0
Stay the same
Improve
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
10
EOI = +18
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19. Mar-97
Jun-97
Sep-97
Dec-97
Mar-98
Jun-98
Sep-98
Dec-98
Mar-99
Jun-99
Sep-99
Dec-99
Mar-00
Jun-00
Sep-00
Dec-00
Mar-01
Jun-01
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Index (get better minus get worse)
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
+28
-46
-60
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
19
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
40
+23
20
+18
0
-20
-40
-48
-56
-64
-80
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

20. Ed Balls, George Osborne &
Boris Johnson: policies and
personalities

21. Perceptions of Balls, Osborne & Johnson and
their policies
21
Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Chancellor, George Osborne/ Shadow Chancellor, Ed
Balls/ London Mayor, Boris Johnson?
Ed Balls
George
Osborne
Boris
Johnson
%
%
%
I like him and I like his policies
16
19
39
I like him but I do not like his policies
11
8
20
I do not like him but I like his policies
10
17
5
I do not like him and I do not like his policies
41
37
18
Don't know
22
19
18
Total like him
27
27
59
Total do not like him
51
54
23
Total like his policies
26
36
44
Total do not like his policies
52
45
38
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

22. Osborne vs. Balls: most capable Chancellor
22
Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s
Ed Balls?
August 2013
Don’t know
December 2013
Don’t know
George
Osborne
12%
12%
Neither
36%
George
Osborne
Neither
18%
29%
35%
Ed Balls
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013, 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013
40%
19%
Ed Balls
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

23. Most capable Chancellor - trend
23
Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s
Ed Balls?
50
Ed Balls
40
30
36
36
35
40
38
35
37
36
34
35
35
34
29
29
George Osborne
20
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each time
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
0
Mar-11
10
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor