Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for April for the London Evening Standard shows that George Osborce delivered the best rated Conservative Budget since 1987, but vast majority still feel there is a cost of living crisis. It also shows a boost for UKIP and Nigel Farage after the debates about Europe. http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3366/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-April-2014.aspx

1. POLITICAL MONITOR
April 2014
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000

2. Voting Intentions

3. 3
Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -5
All giving a voting
intention: 80%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
32%
37%
9%
14%
8%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014, all certain to vote = 585
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 55%
Conservative lead = -6
31%
37%
9%
15%
8%

4. 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
37%
Howard elected
(Nov 03)
2005
General
Election
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM
(Jun 07)
9%
31%
2010
General
Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions September ‘03 – April ‘14
(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
15%

5. Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders

6. 6
56
63
56
36
58
38
29
30
40
33
Net
satisfaction
Swing from
March
2014
-18 +0.5
-34 -1.5
-26 -2.5
+4 +7
-25 +0.5
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7. 7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
29%
%satisfied
Cameron
Clegg
Campbell
Clegg elected
(Jan 08)
General
Election
38%
Miliband
30%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders September ‘07 – April ‘14
Farage 40%

8. 8
Netsatisfaction
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR
MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

9. 9
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
April 2006 – April 2014April 2014
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -18
38%
56%
6%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014

10. 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 230 Conservative supporters 18+, 5th -7th April 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
80%
18%
3%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +62 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
April 2006 – April 2014April 2014

11. 11
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2014)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Netsatisfaction

12. 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – April 2014April 2014
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
30%
56%
14%
Net = -26

13. 13
53%38%
9%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 312 Labour supporters 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
April 2014
Net = +15
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – April 2014

14. 14
Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
April 2008 – April 2014April 2014
29%
63%
9%
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -34

15. 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 77 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 5th -7th April 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
April 2014
60%
37%
3%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +23
Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
April 2008 – April 2014
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16. 16
40%
36%
24%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
All
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +4
March 2013 – April 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

17. 17
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Nigel Farage
(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 120 UKIP supporters, 5th -7th April 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
93%
3%4%
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +90
March 2013 – April 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

18. The economy

19. 19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
Improve
Stay the same
Get worseImprove
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
April 2014
EOI = +25
49%
25%
24%
2%

20. 20
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jul-97
Oct-97
Jan-98
Apr-98
Jul-98
Oct-98
Jan-99
Apr-99
Jul-99
Oct-99
Jan-00
Apr-00
Jul-00
Oct-00
Jan-01
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+17
-46
-56
-48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Index(getbetterminusgetworse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+25

21. Post-Budget 2014 perceptions

22. 22
The Budget – a good thing for you personally?
From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing...?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
25%
60%
16%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
Don’t know
Good thing
Bad thing
...for me personally
(April 2012)
43%
35%
22%
...for me personally
(April 2014)
Don’t know
Good thing
Bad thing

23. 23
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
The Budget – a good thing for you personally?
From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing for
you personally?
% saying ‘good thing’
34%
68%
26%
41%
36%
42%
32%
42%
49%
40%
36%
27%
36%35%
11%
16%15%
25%
20%
29%
33%
36%
26%
42%
45%
24%
34%
21%
26%25%
43%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne

24. 24
33%
53%
14%
The Budget – a good thing for the country?
From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing...?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
Don’t know Good thing
Bad thing
...for the country
(April 2012)
48%
33%
19%
...for the country
(April 2014)
Don’t know Good thing
Bad thing

25. 25
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
The Budget – a good thing for the country?
From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing for
the country?
% saying ‘good thing’
47%
69%
39%
47%48%
46%
35%
37%
45%
40%
42%
28%
32%
34%
23%
29%
20%
23%
27%
56%57%
46%
48%
52%
65%
37%
45%
25%
54%
33%
48%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne

26. 26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Satisfaction with George Osborne
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way George Osborne is doing his job as Chancellor of the
Exchequer?
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
April 2014
Net = +3
June 2010 – April 2014
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
47%
44%
9%
BB
BB AAS
AB
BB
AB
BB BB
AAS
AB BB
AB
AAS= After Autumn Statement
BB= Before Budget
AB= After Budget

27. 27
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
Satisfaction with the chancellor- long term trend
% saying ‘satisfied’
66%
44%
67%
52%
45% 45%
34%
39%
44%
42%
37%
39%
36%37%
18%
31%
17%
24%
28%
38%
34%
52%
44%
56%
45%
42%
48%
52%
34%
41%
55%
57%
48%
46%
49%
47%
42%
32%
28%
36%
40%
36%
38%
28%27%
47%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-76
Mar-77
Apr-78
Jul-80
Mar-82
Jun-83
Mar-85
Mar-86
Mar-87
Mar-88
Mar-89
Mar-90
Mar-91
Mar-92
Mar-93
Dec-93
Dec-94
Nov-95
Dec-95
Nov-96
Dec-96
Jul-97
Feb-98
Mar-98
Mar-99
Feb-00
Mar-00
Jul-00
Sep-00
Nov-00
Mar-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Mar-04
Nov-05
Feb-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Mar-08
Mar-10
Jun-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Mar-13
Apr-14
Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

28. 28
51%
55%
31%
25%
5%
7%
6%
10%
4%
2%
3%
2%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree
Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know
Is there a ‘cost of living crisis’?
Some people believe/ Ed Miliband has said that despite recent growth in the UK economy, the cost of living has continued to rise for many
people, creating a ‘cost of living crisis’. To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree that there is currently a ‘cost of living crisis’ in the UK?
Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: SPLIT SAMPLE, 489 & 513 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
Some people believe that…
Ed Miliband has said that…
12%80%
10%82%

29. Best leader and best party

30. 30
Which leader would make the most capable PM?
Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister…?
Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014.
9%
5%
20%
34%Cameron
Miliband
Clegg
Farage

31. 31
Which leader would make the most capable PM?
Trend
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014.
N.B: question not asked exactly same way (e.g. Farage added in 2014). Take caution when comparing trends.
Cameron
Miliband
(Brown in Feb 2010
& 2009)
Clegg Farage
April 2014 34% 20% 5% 9%
April 2011 45% 25% 7% N/A
Sept 2010 49% 19% 10% N/A
Feb 2010 38% 29% 12% N/A
Sept 2009 41% 24% 16% N/A
Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister…?

32. 32
Leader image
Which leader do you think…
MilibandCameron Clegg Farage
Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014.
… best understands
the problems facing
Britain?
… would be best in
a crisis?
… is most out of
touch with ordinary
people?
15%
14%
15%
40%
9%
5%
16%
43%
17%
9%
25%
23%

33. 33
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014.
N.B: question not asked exactly same way (e.g. Farage added in 2013/14). Take caution when comparing trends.
Cameron
Miliband
(Brown in
2009)
Clegg Farage
… best understands
the problems facing
Britain
April 2014 23% 25% 9% 17%
May 2013 27% 23% 8% 16%
Sept 2009 33% 33% 15% N/A
… would be best in a
crisis?
April 2014 43% 16% 5% 9%
Sept 2009 37% 34% 9% N/A
… is most out of
touch with ordinary
people?
April 2014 40% 15% 14% 15%
May 2013 48% 15% 10% 10%
Sept 2009 28% 46% 10% N/A
Which leader do you think…
Leader image- trend

34. 34
Party image
And which political party do you think…
… would be best at
looking after the
interests of people
like you?
… is most clear and
united about what its
policies should be?
25%
6%
18%
23%
12%
8%
31%
29%
12%
8%
27%
29%
Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014.
LabourConservatives Liberal Democrats UKIP
… has the best
policies for the
country as a whole?

35. 35
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014.
N.B: question not asked exactly same way (e.g. UKIP added in 2014). Take caution when comparing trends.
Conservatives Labour
Liberal
Democrats
UKIP
… has the best
policies for the
country as a whole
April 2014 29% 27% 8% 16%
Feb 2010 29% 27% 16% N/A
… would be best at
looking after the
interests of people
like you?
April 2014 29% 31% 8% 12%
Sept 2009 30% 26% 17% N/A
… is most clear
about what its
policies should be?
April 2014 23% 18% 6% 25%
Sept 2009 30% 14% 17% N/A
Party image- trend
And which political party do you think…