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Global @dvisor
The Economic Pulse of the World
Citizens in 24 Countries Assess the Current State of their
Country’s Economy for a Total Global Perspective




                                    A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38
                                                          The Economic Pulse
These are the findings of the Global @dvisor Wave 38 (G@38),
                 an Ipsos survey conducted between October 2nd and October 16th, 2012.



    SURVEY METHOD                          COUNTRIES                             SAMPLE                              WEIGHTING


• The survey instrument is         • The countries reporting herein   • For the results of the survey       • Weighting was then employed
  conducted monthly in 24            are Argentina, Australia,          presented herein, an                  to balance demographics and
  countries around the world via     Belgium, Brazil, Canada,           international sample of 18,713        ensure that the sample's
  the Ipsos Online Panel system.     China, France, Germany,            adults age 18-64 in the US and        composition reflects that of the
                                     Great Britain, Hungary, India,     Canada, and age 16-64 in all          adult population according to
                                     Indonesia, Italy, Japan,           other countries, were                 the most recent country
                                     Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi      interviewed. Approximately            Census data, and to provide
                                     Arabia, South Africa, South        1000+ individuals participated        results intended to
                                     Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey       on a country by country basis         approximate the sample
                                     and the United States of           via the Ipsos Online Panel with       universe. The precision of
                                     America.                           the exception of Argentina,           Ipsos online polls are
                                                                        Belgium, Hungary Indonesia,           calculated using a credibility
                                                                        Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi         interval. In this case, a poll of
                                                                        Arabia, South Africa, South           1,000 is accurate to +/- 3.5
                                                                        Korea, Sweden and Turkey,             percentage points and one of
                                                                        where each have a sample              500 is accurate to +/- 5.0
                                                                        approximately 500+. In this           percentage points in their
                                                                        wave (G@33), 500+                     respective general populations.
                                                                        individuals in Denmark also           All sample surveys and polls
                                                                        participated in the survey and        may be subject to other
                                                                        1000+ individuals in Kenya            sources of error, including, but
                                                                        participated in a similar survey.     not limited to coverage error,
                                                                                                              and measurement error. For
                                                                                                              more information on credibility
                                                                                                              intervals, please visit the Ipsos
                                                                                                              website.




                                                                                    A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38                      2
                                                                                                                  The Economic Pulse
Analytic Components…
 There are three analytic components that make up the findings of this monthly Economic Pulse report.
  Each question is tracked and analyzed from questions dealing with:

            The currently perceived macroeconomic state of
            the respondent’s country:

            • Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current
              economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat
              bad or very bad?


             The currently perceived state of the local economy:

            • Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
              where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.


             A six month outlook for the local economy:

            • Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local
              area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or
              much weaker than it is now?

                                                                 A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 3
                                                                                        The Economic Pulse
THE WORLD at a GLANCE




THE
WORLD
at a
GLANCE
            A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38   4
                                  The Economic Pulse
The Top Line Summary




  Global @dvisor
            A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 5
                                  The Economic Pulse
Global Average of National Economic Assessment (36%)
       Down One Point, Lowest Since 08/09 Crash

   As 2012 comes to a close, global economic sentiment reflects a sense of impending
    trouble. The assessment line, which has been regularly teetering up and down by a
    scale of one or two points, has reached a three-year low as 36% of global citizens
    agree their current national economic situation is “good”. The assessment rating
    has reached its lowest point since the 2008/2009 crash.

   In fact, nearly all geographic regions studied reflect a negative change in aggregate
    sentiment since last sounding. The Middle East and Africa (50%) fell four points
    overall, while Latin America (41%), Asia-Pacific (40%) and Europe (24%) all fell one
    point. North America (46%) is the only exception as it remains unchanged, however,
    this is due to the cancelling out of a two point improvement in Canada (68%) and a
    two point decline in the United States (24%).

   Saudi Arabia (79%), Sweden (72%), Canada (68%), China (63%) and Australia
    (61%) lead the global pack as the countries with the highest proportions of
    respondents assessing their national economies as “good” while Spain (3%),
    Hungary (4%), Italy (6%), France (6%) and Japan (9%) sit at the bottom.

   Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Sweden (+7pts to 72%), Indonesia (+6pts
    to 46%), China (+5pts to 63%), Canada (+2pts to 68%), Poland (+2pts to 21%)

   Countries with the greatest declines: Belgium (-8pts to 28%), South Korea (-8pts to 16%),
    Germany (-8pts to 60%), Turkey (-6pts to 44%), South Africa (-5pts to 26%).
                                                               A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 6
                                                                                     The Economic Pulse
Global Average of Local Economic Assessment (27%)
       Unchanged

 The global average of local economic assessment among the core 24 countries
  remains unchanged with three in ten (27%) global citizens who agree the state of
  the current economy in their local area is ‘good’.

 The poll finds assessments of local economies to be strongest in Saudi Arabia (53%),
  Sweden (52%), China (47%), Canada (44%), Australia (42%) and Brazil (42%).

 Spain (6%), Japan (6%), Hungary (8%), Italy (8%) and France (10%) sit at the bottom
  of the global ranking for this metric.

 Countries with the greatest improvements in local economic assessment: Indonesia
  (+10pts to 36%), Sweden (+8pts to 52%), Saudi Arabia (+6pts to 53%), Brazil (+6pts
  to 42%) and Russia (+3pts to 20%).

 Countries with the greatest declines in local economic assessment: Germany (-8pts to
  39%), Belgium (-4pts to 18%), China (-4pts to 47%), Turkey (-3pts to 32%), South
  Korea (-3pts to 14%) and France (-3pts to 10%).




                                                      A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 7
                                                                            The Economic Pulse
Global Average of Future Outlook for Local Economy
       Down One Point: 22%

   Currently, a global average of 22% believe their local economy will be stronger
    six months from now, a figure that is one point lower than last wave.

   Brazil holds on to its number one spot on this measure (74%), leading India (44%),
    Saudi Arabia (44%), Indonesia (41%), Argentina (40%) and Mexico (40%).

   A very small minority of those in France (3%) and Japan (5%) express they believe
    their local economy will be stronger in half a year’s time. They are joined at the end of
    the ranking by Hungary (7%), Belgium (8%) and Italy (9%).

   Countries with the greatest improvements: Indonesia (+10pts to 41%), Brazil (+4pts
    to 74%), China (+3pts to 35%), Canada (+3pts to 21%), Sweden (+3pts to 19%) and
    South Africa (+3pts to 14%).

   Countries with the greatest declines: United States (-5pts to 25%), Turkey (-4pts to
    23%), Italy (-4pts to 9%), India (-4pts to 44%), Germany (-3pts to 11%), Russia (-3pts
    to 14%), South Korea (-3pts to 13%) and Mexico (-3pts to 40%).




                                                         A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 8
                                                                               The Economic Pulse
1. National Economic Assessments: Countries at
                        a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
                   Those Countries Where the National Area Economic Assessment…
                                                                                                         has experienced a
                          is                              has experienced an                                                                is
                                                                                                             DECLINE
                      HIGHEST                               IMPROVEMENT                                                                 LOWEST
                                                                                                             since last
                     this month                           since last sounding                                                          this month
                                                                                                             sounding
                      Saudi Arabia           79%                       Sweden                  7                   Germany      8          Spain    3%
                             Sweden          72%                    Indonesia                  6                   Belgium      8       Hungary     4%
                             Canada          68%                          China                5            South Korea         8        France     6%
                                China        63%                       Canada                  2                    Turkey      6           Italy   6%
                           Australia         61%                        Poland                 2            South Africa        5         Japan     9%
                           Germany           60%                          Brazil               1                    Russia      4   Great Britain   15%
                                 India       58%                Great Britain                  1                    Mexico      2   South Korea     16%
                                Brazil       57%                                                            United States        2        Poland     21%
                                                                                                                      Japan      2
                                                                                                             Saudi Arabia        1
                                                                                                                    Australia    1
                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                      Spain       1




Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
                                                                                                               A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38     9
                                                                                                                                      The Economic Pulse
1. National Economic Assessment: Regions at
                        a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…



                                                                                                                             CHANGE
                     REGION                                                                            NET
                                                                                                                            (since last
                     (in descending order by NET)                                                     ‘Good’
                                                                                                                            sounding)
                                                                                 BRIC                    51%                    N/A
                                                          Middle East/Africa                             50%                   4%
                                                                 North America                           46%                    N/A
                                                                             LATAM                       41%                   1%
                                                                                APAC                     40%                   1%
                                                                 G-8 Countries                           27%                   1%
                                                                             Europe                      24%                   1%




Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
                                                                                                               A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38    10
                                                                                                                                      The Economic Pulse
2. Local Economic Assessment: Countries at
                          a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
                       Those Countries Where the Local Area Economic Assessment…
                                                                                               has experienced a
                           is                                has experienced an                                               is
                                                                                                   DECLINE
                       HIGHEST                                 IMPROVEMENT                                                LOWEST
                                                                                                   since last
                      this month                             since last sounding                                         this month
                                                                                                   sounding
                       Saudi Arabia            53%                     Indonesia         10        Germany       8         Japan     6%
                              Sweden           52%                        Sweden         8            China      4         Spain     6%
                                 China         47%                Saudi Arabia           6         Belgium       4       Hungary     8%
                               Canada          44%                           Brazil      6           Turkey      3           Italy   8%
                             Australia         42%                          Russia       3      South Korea      3        France     10%
                                  Brazil       42%                         Poland        2           France      3   South Korea     14%
                                                                        Australia        1          Canada       2
                                                                   South Africa          1            India      2
                                                                         Hungary         1          Mexico       2
                                                                                                      Japan       2
                                                                                                   Argentina      1
                                                                                                 Great Britain    1
                                                                                                        Italy     1
                                                                                                       Spain      1

Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy
                                                                                                  A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38   11
                                                                                                                        The Economic Pulse
2. Local Economic Assessment: Regions at
                          a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…




                     REGION                                                               NET                            CHANGE
                     (in descending order by NET)                                       ‘Strong’                   (since last sounding)
                                                                                      Top 3 Box (5-6-7)

                                                                     BRIC                  37%                              N/C
                                             Middle East/Africa                            36%                             1%
                                                    North America                          34%                              N/C
                                                                    APAC                   29%                              N/C
                                                                  LATAM                    28%                             1%
                                                     G-8 Countries                         20%                             2%
                                                                 Europe                    19%                             1%




Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy                                 A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38   12
                                                                                                                                The Economic Pulse
3. Six Month Outlook on the Local Economy: Countries
                          at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…

           Countries where the Assessment of the Local Economic Strengthening …

                       is                               has experienced an                           has experienced a              is
                   HIGHEST                                IMPROVEMENT                                    DECLINE                LOWEST
                  this month                            since last sounding                         since last sounding        this month
                           Brazil       74%                       Indonesia                  10     United States      5        France     3%
                            India       44%                             Brazil                4             India      4         Japan     5%
                Saudi Arabia            44%                             China                 3           Turkey       4       Hungary     7%
                     Indonesia          41%                           Canada                  3             Italy      4       Belgium     8%
                     Argentina          40%                          Sweden                   3           Mexico       3           Italy   9%
                         Mexico         40%                   South Africa                    3           Russia       3   Great Britain   10%
                           China        35%                           Poland                  2      South Korea       3        Poland     10%
                                                                    Hungary                   2         Germany        3      Germany      11%
                                                                    Australia                 1     Saudi Arabia       2          Spain    11%
                                                              Great Britain                   1         Belgium        2
                                                                                                            Japan       2




Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be
much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?       A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38   13
                                                                                                                              The Economic Pulse
3. Six Month Outlook on Local Economy: Regions at
                        a Glance Compared to Last Wave…



                       REGION                                                                     NET                        CHANGE
                       (in descending order by NET)                                            ‘Stronger’               (since last sounding)

                                                                    LATAM                           52%                         1%
                                                                       BRIC                         42%                          N/C
                                                Middle East/Africa                                  27%                         1%
                                                       North America                                23%                         1%
                                                                      APAC                          24%                          N/C
                                                       G-8 Countries                                12%                         2%
                                                                   Europe                           10%                          N/C




Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be
much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?         A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38   14
                                                                                                                                The Economic Pulse
DETAILED FINDINGS




          A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38   15
                                The Economic Pulse
 Assessing The Current Economic
      Situation …



          …in Their Country




Detailed Tables B.3
                              A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38   16
                                                    The Economic Pulse
Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their
                     Country as “Good”
                                ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
                       Total                                                36%
              Saudi Arabia                                                                                           79%
                   Sweden                                                                                      72%
                    Canada                                                                                   68%
                      China                                                                            63%
                  Australia                                                                        61%
                  Germany                                                                          60%
                       India                                                                     58%
                      Brazil                                                                     57%
                 Indonesia                                                                 46%
                     Turkey                                                          44%
                 Argentina                                                  36%
                    Mexico                                             32%
                   Belgium                                        28%
                     Russia                                      27%
              South Africa                                      26%
             United States                                   24%
                     Poland                               21%
              South Korea                           16%
              Great Britain                        15%
                      Japan                9%
                     France             6%
                        Italy           6%
                   Hungary           4%
                      Spain         3%

Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic
situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?               A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38   17
                                                                                                                             The Economic Pulse
Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current
                                Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”:…                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1

                                                                                                                                                    Total Good
     70%


     60% 56% 55%


     50%                        45%
                                                                                                                                42% 41% 41%
                                                                                                    40% 41% 40%                                             40% 41%                    40% 41% 40% 40%
                                                           38% 38% 39% 39%                                                                                                    38%                                           38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37%
     40%                                 32%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               36%

                                                  29%
     30%


     20%


     10%


       0%
                                                                                                                                                                              Mar/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar/12
                       Oct/07




                                                                                                                                 Oct/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Oct/11
                                         Nov/08




                                                                                                                                          Nov/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-12
                                                                                                                                                            Jan/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov/11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan/12
                                                                                  May/10
                                                            Nov/Jan/10




                                                                                           Jun/10




                                                                                                                                                                     Feb/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                 May/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb/12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May/12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun/12
                                                                                                     Jul/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul/12
                                                                                                                       Sep/10




                                                                                                                                                   Dec/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep/12
                                                                                                              Aug/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Aug/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Aug/12
              Apr/07


                                Apr/08


                                                  Apr/09


                                                                         Apr/10




                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr/12
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38                                                                                               18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The Economic Pulse
For All Countries Tracked: Citizens Assess the
                  Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”
                             Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
                                                        Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
                 Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct
                 ‘10   ‘10   ‘10   ‘10   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘11   ‘12   ‘12   ‘12   ‘12   ‘12   ‘12   ’12   ’12   ’12   ‘12
   Argentina     38% 35% 42% 39% 45% 41% 43% 46% 46% 47% 50% 50% 59% 54% 55% 52% 55% 47% 51% 38% 45% 34% 37% 34% 36% 36%
    Australia    77% 78% 74% 75% 78% 72% 70% 70% 73% 66% 64% 56% 61% 62% 67% 68% 70% 66% 62% 64% 61% 61% 58% 59% 62% 61%
    Belgium      36% 29% 28% 31% 34% 39% 36% 41% 40% 42% 41% 37% 31% 25% 24% 19% 22% 16% 24% 21% 28% 29% 34% 35% 36% 28%
       Brazil    58% 66% 64% 62% 56% 61% 53% 52% 51% 51% 53% 52% 55% 55% 59% 56% 62% 63% 54% 59% 49% 52% 58% 51% 56% 57%
     Canada      68% 63% 63% 62% 68% 68% 64% 68% 69% 69% 72% 73% 66% 66% 62% 63% 65% 65% 64% 62% 62% 62% 63% 65% 66% 68%
       China     75% 79% 74% 72% 74% 73% 67% 75% 68% 68% 66% 61% 65% 65% 62% 55% 64% 72% 71% 62% 63% 60% 67% 53% 58% 63%
      France     10% 10% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10%               8%    11% 12%     8%    12%   7%    6%    7%    5%    6%    7%    9%    9%    9%    9%    8%    9%    6%    6%
    Germany      56% 64% 67% 63% 64% 64% 62% 67% 68% 68% 71% 66% 63% 64% 64% 61% 70% 71% 68% 68% 69% 66% 68% 69% 68% 60%
Great Britain    16% 12% 16% 13% 15% 12%             8%    10% 15% 13% 10% 11% 17% 11% 10%                 8%    13% 10% 14% 12% 10% 12% 11% 14% 14% 15%
    Hungary      7%    13%    7%   6%    3%    5%    3%    6%    5%    6%    5%    4%    4%    2%    3%    2%    2%    3%    4%    4%    3%    4%    3%    5%    4%    4%
        India    82% 88% 88% 87% 76% 77% 73% 76% 73% 71% 62% 69% 69% 75% 69% 68% 65% 74% 79% 72% 70% 58% 60% 68% 58% 58%
   Indonesia     49% 54% 45% 48% 37% 38% 40% 46% 47% 40% 41% 36% 42% 35% 50% 46% 45% 40% 35% 36% 40% 41% 40% 46% 40% 46%
         Italy   14% 16% 11% 14% 11% 14% 12% 10% 14% 10% 10%                       8%    8%    8%    6%    5%    5%    6%    6%    5%    3%    3%    4%    5%    6%    6%
       Japan     7%    8%     6%   9%    6%    8%    8%    7%    9%    8%    8%    6%    8%    6%    7%    8%    8%    9%    9%    8%    9%    9%    7%    11% 11%     9%
     Mexico      23% 25% 20% 25% 25% 33% 22% 25% 27% 29% 34% 33% 25% 28% 32% 30% 24% 29% 31% 33% 28% 28% 32% 29% 34% 32%
      Poland     33% 29% 30% 28% 23% 29% 19% 23% 22% 20% 24% 28% 27% 30% 28% 27% 27% 21% 27% 25% 25% 28% 33% 22% 19% 21%
      Russia     27% 28% 29% 27% 26% 25% 26% 26% 26% 29% 25% 26% 27% 23% 25% 30% 30% 28% 33% 33% 36% 33% 29% 28% 31% 27%
Saudi Arabia     78% 76% 81% 81% 80% 81% 85% 87% 89% 89% 87% 88% 89% 83% 89% 86% 86% 90% 89% 88% 88% 83% 85% 84% 80% 79%
South Africa     41% 46% 41% 51% 45% 45% 40% 41% 43% 42% 38% 39% 34% 39% 32% 32% 42% 40% 36% 35% 33% 38% 39% 38% 31% 26%
South Korea      35% 32% 37% 39% 34% 38% 22% 25% 29% 27% 27% 18% 21% 18% 26% 21% 17% 17% 20% 22% 20% 21% 18% 17% 24% 16%
       Spain     9%    10%    7%   7%    4%    6%    6%    8%    6%    6%    7%    6%    3%    5%    3%    4%    4%    4%    4%    3%    3%    3%    3%    4%    4%    3%
     Sweden      72% 77% 75% 75% 82% 80% 71% 78% 76% 76% 77% 70% 74% 69% 73% 74% 72% 73% 70% 71% 64% 75% 71% 81% 65% 72%
      Turkey     39% 43% 41% 41% 46% 47% 43% 49% 50% 51% 57% 48% 61% 59% 54% 58% 55% 58% 58% 51% 49% 51% 51% 56% 50% 44%
United States    15% 18% 20% 19% 20% 20% 19% 17% 23% 19% 19% 14% 15% 14% 19% 21% 21% 19% 22% 27% 23% 26% 25% 28% 26% 24%

                                                                                                           A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38                          19
                                                                                                                                               The Economic Pulse
Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month
       (Left Column) Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert
       country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?


                     % Very Good / Somewhat Good

        Total (-1)                                                36%
     Sweden (+7)                                                                                       72%
   Indonesia (+6)                                                         46%
       China (+5)                                                                          63%
     Canada (+2)                                                                                 68%
      Poland (+2)                             21%
       Brazil (+1)                                                                  57%
Great Britain (+1)                      15%
       India (N/C)                                                                   58%
 Argentina (N/C)                                                  36%
    France (N/C)              6%                                        Green marks countries experiencing improvement;
       Italy (N/C)            6%
                                                                        Blue marks countries with no change from last month;
                                                                        Red marks countries experiencing a decline…
   Hungary (N/C)         4%
Saudi Arabia (-1)                                                                                            79%
    Australia (-1)                                                                        61%
        Spain (-1)       3%
      Mexico (-2)                                           32%
United States (-2)                              24%
       Japan (-2)                  9%
      Russia (-4)                                   27%
South Africa (-5)                                   26%
      Turkey (-6)                                                       44%
    Germany (-8)                                                                       60%
     Belgium (-8)                                     28%
South Korea (-8)                        16%

                                                                                 A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38           20
                                                                                                               The Economic Pulse
Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to
       Last Month: Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
       Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?


-15%          -10%                    -5%                        0%                       5%              10%                    15%

                                                     Sweden (+7)                                     7%
                                                   Indonesia (+6)                               6%
                                                       China (+5)                          5%
                                                     Canada (+2)               2%
                                                      Poland (+2)              2%
                                                       Brazil (+1)        1%
                                                Great Britain (+1)        1%
                                                     India (N/C) 0%
                                                 Argentina (N/C) 0%
                                                     France (N/C) 0%
                                                        Italy (N/C) 0%
                                                   Hungary (N/C) 0%
                                                       -1%       Saudi Arabia (-1)
                                                       -1%       Australia (-1)
                                                         -1%         Spain (-1)
                                                   -2%               Mexico (-2)
                                                   -2%               United States (-2)
                                                   -2%               Japan (-2)
                                          -4%                        Russia (-4)
                                    -5%                              South Africa (-5)
                              -6%                                    Turkey (-6)
                     -8%                                             Germany (-8)
                     -8%                                             Belgium (-8)
                     -8%                                             South Korea (-8)

                                                                                    A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38           21
                                                                                                             The Economic Pulse
Assessing the Current Economic Situation by All Regions:
                                                                                                                                                          Very Good / Somewhat Good
       80%


             71%
       70%

           64%
       60% 61%


       50% 51%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          51%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        50%
             45%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        46%

       40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              41%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        40%


       30%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        27%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        24%
       20%


       10%
                    Apr 2007


                                          Apr 2008
                                                     Nov 2008
                                                                Apr 2009



                                                                                                   Apr 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Apr 2012
                                                                           Nov/Jan/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan 2012
                                                                                        Mar 2010


                                                                                                              May 2010



                                                                                                                                               Aug 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug 2012
                                                                                                                         Jun 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar 2011


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  May 2011



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Aug 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jun 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Feb 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar 2012


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun 2012
                                                                                                                                    Jul 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul 2012
                               Oct 2007




                                                                                                                                                          Sep 2010
                                                                                                                                                                     Oct 2010


                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct 2011


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Dec 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct 2012
                   North America (Can/US)                                                                                           LATAM                                           Europe                                             APAC                                           G8                                   BRIC                                        Middle East/Africa


Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38                                                                                                                                              22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The Economic Pulse
North American (Canada/US) Countries
                                Assessing the Current Economic Situation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              N/C
                                                                                                                                                                    Very Good / Somewhat Good
      100%

        90%

        80%
               80%
        70%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           68%

        60%

               47%
        50%

        40%

        30%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           24%
        20%

        10%

         0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar/12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct/12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov/11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan/12
                Apr 2007


                                      Apr 2008
                                                 Nov 2008
                                                            Apr 2009




                                                                                                                                                                               Nov 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             May/11
                                                                                                 Apr 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan 2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Feb/12



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          May/12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun/12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul/11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sept/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul/12
                                                                                      Mar 2010


                                                                                                            May 2010



                                                                                                                                             Aug 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Dec/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep/12
                                                                       Nov/Jan 2010




                                                                                                                       Jun 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                Feb 2011
                                                                                                                                  Jul 2010


                                                                                                                                                        Sept 2010
                           Oct 2007




                                                                                                                                                                    Oct 2010


                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec 2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Aug/12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr/12
                                                                                                                                                                                             United States                                                Canada

Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38                                                                                                 23
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The Economic Pulse
LATAM Countries
                      Assessing the Current Economic Situation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1
                                                                                                                                         Very Good / Somewhat Good
       80%


       70%


       60%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   57%

       50% 50%

              42%
       40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   36%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   32%
       30%


       20%


       10%


         0%
                                               Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                          Nov-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov-11
                                                                                                   May-10
                                                                                 Mar-10



                                                                                                            Jun-10




                                                                                                                                                                                     Feb-11
                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                May-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Feb-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-12


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             May-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-12
                                                                 Nov-09/Jan-10




                                                                                                                     Jul-10


                                                                                                                                       Sept-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sept-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-12
                             Oct-07




                                                                                                                                                 Oct-10


                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oct-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-12
                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-12
                    Apr-07


                                      Apr-08


                                                        Apr-09



                                                                                          Apr-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-12
                                                                                                                              Aug-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug-12
                                                                                                                                                          Brazil                              Argentina                                    Mexico

Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38                                                                                                          24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               The Economic Pulse
European Countries
                     Assessing the Current Economic Situation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1
                                                                                                                                      Very Good / Somewhat Good
        90%


        80%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 72%
        70%
              64%
        60% 59%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  60%
            55%
        50% 50%


        40%


        30%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 28%
              27%
        20%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      21%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 15%
        10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3%
         0%
                                               Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                        Nov-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov-11
                                                                                                  May-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-12
                                                                                Mar-10



                                                                                                           Jun-10




                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-11
                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                              May-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Feb-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-12



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-12
                                                                                                                    Jul-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sept-11
                             Oct-07




                                                                                                                                      Sep-10
                                                                                                                                               Oct-10


                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Oct-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Oct-12
                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-12
                                                                 Nov/Jan 2010
                    Apr-07


                                      Apr-08


                                                        Apr-09



                                                                                         Apr-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-12
                                                                                                                             Aug-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Aug-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aug-12
                    Germany                                      France                                    Spain                           Sweden                                  Great Britain                                         Belgium                                  Italy                           Hungary                                Poland


Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38                                                                                                               25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     The Economic Pulse
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012
Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012

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Ipsos Global @dvisor 38: The economic pulse of the world: November 2012

  • 1. Global @dvisor The Economic Pulse of the World Citizens in 24 Countries Assess the Current State of their Country’s Economy for a Total Global Perspective A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 The Economic Pulse
  • 2. These are the findings of the Global @dvisor Wave 38 (G@38), an Ipsos survey conducted between October 2nd and October 16th, 2012. SURVEY METHOD COUNTRIES SAMPLE WEIGHTING • The survey instrument is • The countries reporting herein • For the results of the survey • Weighting was then employed conducted monthly in 24 are Argentina, Australia, presented herein, an to balance demographics and countries around the world via Belgium, Brazil, Canada, international sample of 18,713 ensure that the sample's the Ipsos Online Panel system. China, France, Germany, adults age 18-64 in the US and composition reflects that of the Great Britain, Hungary, India, Canada, and age 16-64 in all adult population according to Indonesia, Italy, Japan, other countries, were the most recent country Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi interviewed. Approximately Census data, and to provide Arabia, South Africa, South 1000+ individuals participated results intended to Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey on a country by country basis approximate the sample and the United States of via the Ipsos Online Panel with universe. The precision of America. the exception of Argentina, Ipsos online polls are Belgium, Hungary Indonesia, calculated using a credibility Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi interval. In this case, a poll of Arabia, South Africa, South 1,000 is accurate to +/- 3.5 Korea, Sweden and Turkey, percentage points and one of where each have a sample 500 is accurate to +/- 5.0 approximately 500+. In this percentage points in their wave (G@33), 500+ respective general populations. individuals in Denmark also All sample surveys and polls participated in the survey and may be subject to other 1000+ individuals in Kenya sources of error, including, but participated in a similar survey. not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. For more information on credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website. A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 2 The Economic Pulse
  • 3. Analytic Components…  There are three analytic components that make up the findings of this monthly Economic Pulse report. Each question is tracked and analyzed from questions dealing with: The currently perceived macroeconomic state of the respondent’s country: • Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?  The currently perceived state of the local economy: • Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.  A six month outlook for the local economy: • Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 3 The Economic Pulse
  • 4. THE WORLD at a GLANCE THE WORLD at a GLANCE A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 4 The Economic Pulse
  • 5. The Top Line Summary Global @dvisor A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 5 The Economic Pulse
  • 6. Global Average of National Economic Assessment (36%) Down One Point, Lowest Since 08/09 Crash  As 2012 comes to a close, global economic sentiment reflects a sense of impending trouble. The assessment line, which has been regularly teetering up and down by a scale of one or two points, has reached a three-year low as 36% of global citizens agree their current national economic situation is “good”. The assessment rating has reached its lowest point since the 2008/2009 crash.  In fact, nearly all geographic regions studied reflect a negative change in aggregate sentiment since last sounding. The Middle East and Africa (50%) fell four points overall, while Latin America (41%), Asia-Pacific (40%) and Europe (24%) all fell one point. North America (46%) is the only exception as it remains unchanged, however, this is due to the cancelling out of a two point improvement in Canada (68%) and a two point decline in the United States (24%).  Saudi Arabia (79%), Sweden (72%), Canada (68%), China (63%) and Australia (61%) lead the global pack as the countries with the highest proportions of respondents assessing their national economies as “good” while Spain (3%), Hungary (4%), Italy (6%), France (6%) and Japan (9%) sit at the bottom.  Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Sweden (+7pts to 72%), Indonesia (+6pts to 46%), China (+5pts to 63%), Canada (+2pts to 68%), Poland (+2pts to 21%)  Countries with the greatest declines: Belgium (-8pts to 28%), South Korea (-8pts to 16%), Germany (-8pts to 60%), Turkey (-6pts to 44%), South Africa (-5pts to 26%). A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 6 The Economic Pulse
  • 7. Global Average of Local Economic Assessment (27%) Unchanged  The global average of local economic assessment among the core 24 countries remains unchanged with three in ten (27%) global citizens who agree the state of the current economy in their local area is ‘good’.  The poll finds assessments of local economies to be strongest in Saudi Arabia (53%), Sweden (52%), China (47%), Canada (44%), Australia (42%) and Brazil (42%).  Spain (6%), Japan (6%), Hungary (8%), Italy (8%) and France (10%) sit at the bottom of the global ranking for this metric.  Countries with the greatest improvements in local economic assessment: Indonesia (+10pts to 36%), Sweden (+8pts to 52%), Saudi Arabia (+6pts to 53%), Brazil (+6pts to 42%) and Russia (+3pts to 20%).  Countries with the greatest declines in local economic assessment: Germany (-8pts to 39%), Belgium (-4pts to 18%), China (-4pts to 47%), Turkey (-3pts to 32%), South Korea (-3pts to 14%) and France (-3pts to 10%). A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 7 The Economic Pulse
  • 8. Global Average of Future Outlook for Local Economy Down One Point: 22%  Currently, a global average of 22% believe their local economy will be stronger six months from now, a figure that is one point lower than last wave.  Brazil holds on to its number one spot on this measure (74%), leading India (44%), Saudi Arabia (44%), Indonesia (41%), Argentina (40%) and Mexico (40%).  A very small minority of those in France (3%) and Japan (5%) express they believe their local economy will be stronger in half a year’s time. They are joined at the end of the ranking by Hungary (7%), Belgium (8%) and Italy (9%).  Countries with the greatest improvements: Indonesia (+10pts to 41%), Brazil (+4pts to 74%), China (+3pts to 35%), Canada (+3pts to 21%), Sweden (+3pts to 19%) and South Africa (+3pts to 14%).  Countries with the greatest declines: United States (-5pts to 25%), Turkey (-4pts to 23%), Italy (-4pts to 9%), India (-4pts to 44%), Germany (-3pts to 11%), Russia (-3pts to 14%), South Korea (-3pts to 13%) and Mexico (-3pts to 40%). A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 8 The Economic Pulse
  • 9. 1. National Economic Assessments: Countries at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… Those Countries Where the National Area Economic Assessment… has experienced a is has experienced an is DECLINE HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT LOWEST since last this month since last sounding this month sounding Saudi Arabia 79% Sweden  7 Germany  8 Spain 3% Sweden 72% Indonesia  6 Belgium  8 Hungary 4% Canada 68% China  5 South Korea  8 France 6% China 63% Canada  2 Turkey  6 Italy 6% Australia 61% Poland  2 South Africa  5 Japan 9% Germany 60% Brazil  1 Russia  4 Great Britain 15% India 58% Great Britain  1 Mexico  2 South Korea 16% Brazil 57% United States  2 Poland 21% Japan  2 Saudi Arabia  1 Australia  1  Spain 1 Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 9 The Economic Pulse
  • 10. 1. National Economic Assessment: Regions at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… CHANGE REGION NET (since last (in descending order by NET) ‘Good’ sounding) BRIC 51% N/A Middle East/Africa 50% 4% North America 46% N/A LATAM 41% 1% APAC 40% 1% G-8 Countries 27% 1% Europe 24% 1% Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 10 The Economic Pulse
  • 11. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Countries at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… Those Countries Where the Local Area Economic Assessment… has experienced a is has experienced an is DECLINE HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT LOWEST since last this month since last sounding this month sounding Saudi Arabia 53% Indonesia  10 Germany  8 Japan 6% Sweden 52% Sweden  8 China  4 Spain 6% China 47% Saudi Arabia  6 Belgium  4 Hungary 8% Canada 44% Brazil  6 Turkey  3 Italy 8% Australia 42% Russia  3 South Korea  3 France 10% Brazil 42% Poland  2 France  3 South Korea 14% Australia  1 Canada  2 South Africa  1 India  2 Hungary  1 Mexico  2 Japan  2 Argentina  1 Great Britain  1 Italy  1 Spain  1 Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 11 The Economic Pulse
  • 12. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Regions at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… REGION NET CHANGE (in descending order by NET) ‘Strong’ (since last sounding) Top 3 Box (5-6-7) BRIC 37% N/C Middle East/Africa 36% 1% North America 34% N/C APAC 29% N/C LATAM 28% 1% G-8 Countries 20% 2% Europe 19% 1% Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 12 The Economic Pulse
  • 13. 3. Six Month Outlook on the Local Economy: Countries at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… Countries where the Assessment of the Local Economic Strengthening … is has experienced an has experienced a is HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT DECLINE LOWEST this month since last sounding since last sounding this month Brazil 74% Indonesia  10 United States  5 France 3% India 44% Brazil  4 India  4 Japan 5% Saudi Arabia 44% China  3 Turkey  4 Hungary 7% Indonesia 41% Canada  3 Italy  4 Belgium 8% Argentina 40% Sweden  3 Mexico  3 Italy 9% Mexico 40% South Africa  3 Russia  3 Great Britain 10% China 35% Poland  2 South Korea  3 Poland 10% Hungary  2 Germany  3 Germany 11% Australia  1 Saudi Arabia  2 Spain 11% Great Britain  1 Belgium  2 Japan  2 Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 13 The Economic Pulse
  • 14. 3. Six Month Outlook on Local Economy: Regions at a Glance Compared to Last Wave… REGION NET CHANGE (in descending order by NET) ‘Stronger’ (since last sounding) LATAM 52% 1% BRIC 42% N/C Middle East/Africa 27% 1% North America 23% 1% APAC 24% N/C G-8 Countries 12% 2% Europe 10% N/C Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 14 The Economic Pulse
  • 15. DETAILED FINDINGS A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 15 The Economic Pulse
  • 16.  Assessing The Current Economic Situation … …in Their Country Detailed Tables B.3 A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 16 The Economic Pulse
  • 17. Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good” ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’ Total 36% Saudi Arabia 79% Sweden 72% Canada 68% China 63% Australia 61% Germany 60% India 58% Brazil 57% Indonesia 46% Turkey 44% Argentina 36% Mexico 32% Belgium 28% Russia 27% South Africa 26% United States 24% Poland 21% South Korea 16% Great Britain 15% Japan 9% France 6% Italy 6% Hungary 4% Spain 3% Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 17 The Economic Pulse
  • 18. Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”:… 1 Total Good 70% 60% 56% 55% 50% 45% 42% 41% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 38% 38% 39% 39% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% 40% 32% 36% 29% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar/11 Mar/12 Oct/07 Oct/10 Oct/11 Nov/08 Nov/10 Oct-12 Jan/11 Nov/11 Jan/12 May/10 Nov/Jan/10 Jun/10 Feb/11 May/11 Jun/11 Feb/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/10 Jul/11 Jul/12 Sep/10 Dec/10 Sep/11 Dec/11 Sep/12 Aug/10 Aug/11 Aug/12 Apr/07 Apr/08 Apr/09 Apr/10 Apr/11 Apr/12 Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 18 The Economic Pulse
  • 19. For All Countries Tracked: Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good” Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘12 ‘12 ‘12 ‘12 ‘12 ‘12 ’12 ’12 ’12 ‘12 Argentina 38% 35% 42% 39% 45% 41% 43% 46% 46% 47% 50% 50% 59% 54% 55% 52% 55% 47% 51% 38% 45% 34% 37% 34% 36% 36% Australia 77% 78% 74% 75% 78% 72% 70% 70% 73% 66% 64% 56% 61% 62% 67% 68% 70% 66% 62% 64% 61% 61% 58% 59% 62% 61% Belgium 36% 29% 28% 31% 34% 39% 36% 41% 40% 42% 41% 37% 31% 25% 24% 19% 22% 16% 24% 21% 28% 29% 34% 35% 36% 28% Brazil 58% 66% 64% 62% 56% 61% 53% 52% 51% 51% 53% 52% 55% 55% 59% 56% 62% 63% 54% 59% 49% 52% 58% 51% 56% 57% Canada 68% 63% 63% 62% 68% 68% 64% 68% 69% 69% 72% 73% 66% 66% 62% 63% 65% 65% 64% 62% 62% 62% 63% 65% 66% 68% China 75% 79% 74% 72% 74% 73% 67% 75% 68% 68% 66% 61% 65% 65% 62% 55% 64% 72% 71% 62% 63% 60% 67% 53% 58% 63% France 10% 10% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10% 8% 11% 12% 8% 12% 7% 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 6% 6% Germany 56% 64% 67% 63% 64% 64% 62% 67% 68% 68% 71% 66% 63% 64% 64% 61% 70% 71% 68% 68% 69% 66% 68% 69% 68% 60% Great Britain 16% 12% 16% 13% 15% 12% 8% 10% 15% 13% 10% 11% 17% 11% 10% 8% 13% 10% 14% 12% 10% 12% 11% 14% 14% 15% Hungary 7% 13% 7% 6% 3% 5% 3% 6% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% India 82% 88% 88% 87% 76% 77% 73% 76% 73% 71% 62% 69% 69% 75% 69% 68% 65% 74% 79% 72% 70% 58% 60% 68% 58% 58% Indonesia 49% 54% 45% 48% 37% 38% 40% 46% 47% 40% 41% 36% 42% 35% 50% 46% 45% 40% 35% 36% 40% 41% 40% 46% 40% 46% Italy 14% 16% 11% 14% 11% 14% 12% 10% 14% 10% 10% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% Japan 7% 8% 6% 9% 6% 8% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 6% 8% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 7% 11% 11% 9% Mexico 23% 25% 20% 25% 25% 33% 22% 25% 27% 29% 34% 33% 25% 28% 32% 30% 24% 29% 31% 33% 28% 28% 32% 29% 34% 32% Poland 33% 29% 30% 28% 23% 29% 19% 23% 22% 20% 24% 28% 27% 30% 28% 27% 27% 21% 27% 25% 25% 28% 33% 22% 19% 21% Russia 27% 28% 29% 27% 26% 25% 26% 26% 26% 29% 25% 26% 27% 23% 25% 30% 30% 28% 33% 33% 36% 33% 29% 28% 31% 27% Saudi Arabia 78% 76% 81% 81% 80% 81% 85% 87% 89% 89% 87% 88% 89% 83% 89% 86% 86% 90% 89% 88% 88% 83% 85% 84% 80% 79% South Africa 41% 46% 41% 51% 45% 45% 40% 41% 43% 42% 38% 39% 34% 39% 32% 32% 42% 40% 36% 35% 33% 38% 39% 38% 31% 26% South Korea 35% 32% 37% 39% 34% 38% 22% 25% 29% 27% 27% 18% 21% 18% 26% 21% 17% 17% 20% 22% 20% 21% 18% 17% 24% 16% Spain 9% 10% 7% 7% 4% 6% 6% 8% 6% 6% 7% 6% 3% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% Sweden 72% 77% 75% 75% 82% 80% 71% 78% 76% 76% 77% 70% 74% 69% 73% 74% 72% 73% 70% 71% 64% 75% 71% 81% 65% 72% Turkey 39% 43% 41% 41% 46% 47% 43% 49% 50% 51% 57% 48% 61% 59% 54% 58% 55% 58% 58% 51% 49% 51% 51% 56% 50% 44% United States 15% 18% 20% 19% 20% 20% 19% 17% 23% 19% 19% 14% 15% 14% 19% 21% 21% 19% 22% 27% 23% 26% 25% 28% 26% 24% A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 19 The Economic Pulse
  • 20. Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month (Left Column) Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? % Very Good / Somewhat Good Total (-1) 36% Sweden (+7) 72% Indonesia (+6) 46% China (+5) 63% Canada (+2) 68% Poland (+2) 21% Brazil (+1) 57% Great Britain (+1) 15% India (N/C) 58% Argentina (N/C) 36% France (N/C) 6% Green marks countries experiencing improvement; Italy (N/C) 6% Blue marks countries with no change from last month; Red marks countries experiencing a decline… Hungary (N/C) 4% Saudi Arabia (-1) 79% Australia (-1) 61% Spain (-1) 3% Mexico (-2) 32% United States (-2) 24% Japan (-2) 9% Russia (-4) 27% South Africa (-5) 26% Turkey (-6) 44% Germany (-8) 60% Belgium (-8) 28% South Korea (-8) 16% A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 20 The Economic Pulse
  • 21. Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to Last Month: Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Sweden (+7) 7% Indonesia (+6) 6% China (+5) 5% Canada (+2) 2% Poland (+2) 2% Brazil (+1) 1% Great Britain (+1) 1% India (N/C) 0% Argentina (N/C) 0% France (N/C) 0% Italy (N/C) 0% Hungary (N/C) 0% -1% Saudi Arabia (-1) -1% Australia (-1) -1% Spain (-1) -2% Mexico (-2) -2% United States (-2) -2% Japan (-2) -4% Russia (-4) -5% South Africa (-5) -6% Turkey (-6) -8% Germany (-8) -8% Belgium (-8) -8% South Korea (-8) A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 21 The Economic Pulse
  • 22. Assessing the Current Economic Situation by All Regions: Very Good / Somewhat Good 80% 71% 70% 64% 60% 61% 50% 51% 51% 50% 45% 46% 40% 41% 40% 30% 27% 24% 20% 10% Apr 2007 Apr 2008 Nov 2008 Apr 2009 Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Nov/Jan/10 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2012 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Jul 2011 Jul 2012 Oct 2007 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 North America (Can/US) LATAM Europe APAC G8 BRIC Middle East/Africa Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 22 The Economic Pulse
  • 23. North American (Canada/US) Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation N/C Very Good / Somewhat Good 100% 90% 80% 80% 70% 68% 60% 47% 50% 40% 30% 24% 20% 10% 0% Mar/11 Mar/12 Oct/11 Oct/12 Nov/11 Jan/12 Apr 2007 Apr 2008 Nov 2008 Apr 2009 Nov 2010 May/11 Apr 2010 Jan 2011 Jun/11 Feb/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/11 Sept/11 Jul/12 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Dec/11 Sep/12 Nov/Jan 2010 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2007 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Aug/11 Aug/12 Apr/11 Apr/12 United States Canada Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 23 The Economic Pulse
  • 24. LATAM Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 1 Very Good / Somewhat Good 80% 70% 60% 57% 50% 50% 42% 40% 36% 32% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-11 May-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jun-12 Nov-09/Jan-10 Jul-10 Sept-10 Jul-11 Sept-11 Jul-12 Oct-07 Oct-10 Dec-10 Oct-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Oct-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Brazil Argentina Mexico Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 24 The Economic Pulse
  • 25. European Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 1 Very Good / Somewhat Good 90% 80% 72% 70% 64% 60% 59% 60% 55% 50% 50% 40% 30% 28% 27% 20% 21% 15% 10% 6% 4% 3% 0% Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-11 May-10 May-12 Mar-10 Jun-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Sept-11 Oct-07 Sep-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Oct-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Oct-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Nov/Jan 2010 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary Poland Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – November 2012 – G@38 25 The Economic Pulse