Nine in ten Britons (92%) describe our economy as being in a bad situation according to the latest Ipsos Global @dvisor conducted online in 24 countries around the world.
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Ipsos Global @dvisor 28: The economic pulse of the world: January 2012
1. Global @dvisor
Global @d isor
The Economic Pulse of the World
Citizens in 24 Countries Assess the Current State of their
Country’s Economy for a Total Global Perspective
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28
The Economic Pulse
2. These are the findings of the Global @dvisor Wave 28 (G@28),
an Ipsos survey conducted between December 6th and December 19th, 2011.
SURVEY METHOD COUNTRIES SAMPLE WEIGHTING
• The survey instrument is • The countries reporting herein • For the results of the survey • Weighting was then employed
conducted monthly in 24 are Argentina, Australia, presented herein, an to balance demographics and
countries around the world via Belgium, Brazil, Canada, international sample of 21,245 ensure that the sample's
the Ipsos Online Panel system. China, France, Germany, adults age 18-64 in the US and composition reflects that of the
Great Britain Hungary, India
Britain, Hungary India, Canada,
Canada and age 16-64 in all
16 64 adult population according to
Indonesia, Italy, Japan, other countries, were the most recent country
Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi interviewed. Approximately Census data, and to provide
Arabia, South Africa, South 1000+ individuals participated results intended to
Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey on a country by country basis approximate the sample
and the United States of via the Ipsos Online Panel with universe. A survey with an
America.
America the exception of Argentina,
Argentina unweighted probability sample
Belgium, Indonesia, Mexico, of this size and a 100%
Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, response rate would have an
South Africa, South Korea, estimated margin of error of +/-
Sweden and Turkey, where 3.1 percentage points for a
each have a sample sample of 1,000 and an
approximately 500+.
500+ estimated margin of error of +/
+/-
4.5 percentage points 19 times
out of 20 per country of what
the results would have been
had the entire population of
adults in that country had been
polled. All sample surveys and
ll d l d
polls may be subject to other
sources of error, including, but
not limited to coverage error,
and measurement error.
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 2
The Economic Pulse
3. Analytic Components…
There are three analytic components that make up the findings of this monthly Economic Pulse report.
Each question is tracked and analyzed from questions dealing with:
The
Th currently perceived macroeconomic state of
tl i d i t t f
the respondent’s country:
• Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current
economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat
bad or very bad?
The currently perceived state of the local economy:
• Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong econom toda and 1 means a very weak econom
here er economy today er eak economy.
A six month outlook for the local economy:
• Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local
area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or
much weaker than it is now?
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 3
The Economic Pulse
4. SUMMARY
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 4
The Economic Pulse
5. A Global Pause
December economic confidence assessment levels softened this wave, in step with
the trend seen for the second half of 2012: up one point one month, down one point
the next, ending off in December with a one-point dip to 38% of global citizens
, g p p % g
assessing current national economic conditions in their country as “good”.
Despite the subtle zig-zag, the aggregate assessment rating of national economies
has
h remained essentially unchanged. Thi t d i mirrored b a l k of movement thi
i d ti ll h d This trend is i d by lack f t this
sounding by the global assessments of current local economic conditions (29%
‘strong’) and expectations of the future of the local economy (24% ‘stronger’). The
relative stability seems to imply a g
y p y global pause, as the world took a deep breath
p , p
in December, waiting to see what 2012 will bring.
But on the regional level, the economic assessments show more variation. In fact,
every
e er geographic region e perienced some mo ement this sounding on
experienced movement so nding
assessments of their national economy. The Middle East and Africa (59%)
improved one point while North America (42%) improved two points. Latin America
(
(46%) declined three p
) points, Asia-Pacific (42%) declined two p
, ( ) points and Europe (
p (23%),
),
already in last place by a painful margin, softened an additional point.
– Europe’s declining figures are dragged in particular by Belgium, which dropped 17 points since
its 2011 highpoint in April. Since May, Italy has dropped eight points, Great Britain five points,
and even juggernaut Germany, a global leader, is showing a modest decline of four points
since May.
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 5
The Economic Pulse
6. The United States: Hints at an Upswing?
The last quarter of 2011 proved quite interesting in
ocal
North America. On predictions of the future of their
Future Lo
local economies, Americans improved eight points
l l i A i i d i ht i t
and have overtaken the Canadians.
15% 23%
– US (23%) vs. Canada (19%) reporting they expect the
g
future of their local economies to be ‘stronger’ 17% 19%
F
America’s hopefulness comes at a time when both
national and local economic assessments trended
upwards last quarter.
Local
– 21% say national economy is “good”, +6 pts since Sept 48% 45%
– 23% say local economy is ‘strong’, +5 pts since Sept
18% 23%
Canada continues to be a global leader on economic
confidence, though its national and local
al
Nationa
assessments are both reporting three points lower
66% 63%
this sounding than in September.
– 63% say national economy is “good”, -3 pts since Sept
– 45% say local economy is ‘strong’, -3 pts since Sept
% y y g, p p 15% 21%
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 6
The Economic Pulse
7. THE WORLD at a GLANCE
THE
WORLD
at a
GLANCE
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 7
The Economic Pulse
8. One Point Dip for the Global Average of National
Economic Assessments (38%)
The global aggregate assessment of national economies inches back downwards one point
this month to 38% of global citizens reporting current economic conditions in their country
are “good”.
good
The polls finds Saudi Arabia (86%) has inspired the most economic confidence among its
residents, by a wide margin. Consistent global leaders Sweden (74%), Australia (68%), India
(68%) and C
d Canada (63%) appear t t il b hi d S di A bi ’ near unanimous national
d to trail behind Saudi Arabia’s i ti l
economic assurance.
The people of Hungary (2%), Spain (4%), Italy (5%), France (5%), Japan (8%) and Great
Britain (8%) appear to find little reason to have confidence in their national economies.
Countries with the greatest improvements: Russia (+5 to 30%), Turkey (+4 to 58%), the
United States (+2 to 21%), Australia (+1 to 68%), C
U it d St t ( 2 t 21%) A t li ( 1 t 68%) Canada ( 1 t 63%) Sweden (+1 to
d (+1 to 63%), S d ( 1 t
74%), Spain (+1 to 4%) and Japan (+1 to 8%).
Countries with the greatest declines: South Korea (-5 to 21%), Belgium ( 5 to 19%),
(5 (-5
Indonesia (-4 to 46%), Saudi Arabia (-3 to 86%), Germany (-3 to 61%), Argentina (-3 to
52%) and Brazil (-3 to 56%).
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 8
The Economic Pulse
9. No Change for the Global Average of Local Economic
Assessment (29%)
The global average of local economic assessment among the 24 countries remains
unchanged again this month with three in ten (29%) citizens rating their current local
economies as “good ”
good.
When asked to assess their local economies, a 16-point gap exists between Saudi Arabia
(64%) and runners up China (48%), India (48%) and Sweden (48%). Australia (47%) and
Brazil
B il (46%) are next i li
t in line.
Japan (5%) sits in last place on this measure, followed by Spain (6%), Hungary (7%), Italy
(10%) and France (12%).
Countries with the greatest improvements: Sweden (+5 to 48%), the United States (+4 to
23%), Poland (+2 to 21%), Canada (+1 to 45%), Russia (+1 to 19%), Turkey (+1 to 45%)
and A t li ( 1 t 47%)
d Australia (+1 to 47%).
Countries with the greatest declines: Saudi Arabia (-3 to 64%), Brazil (-3 to 46%), Germany
(2
(-2 to 41%), Spain ( 2 to 6%), South Africa (-2 to 23%), Belgium (-2 to 14%) and Argentina
(-2 (2 (2
(-2 to 34%).
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 9
The Economic Pulse
10. Global Average of Future Outlook for Local Economy
Remains Unchanged (24%) Since August 2011
When asked to look ahead six months from now, one quarter (24%) of them expect the
economy in their local area to be “stronger,” a figure that has remained unchanged since
August of last year
year.
This wave shows, yet again, that Brazil’s future outlook trumps all the rest with seven in ten
(71%) reporting they expect their local economies to be stronger. Saudi Arabia (60%) falls
next, followed b I di (50%) Argentina (45%) M i (39%) and I d
t f ll d by India (50%), A ti (45%), Mexico d Indonesia (37%)
i (37%).
Almost no one in France (2%) seems to express confidence in the future of their local
economy. Similarly, those in Hungary (3%), Belgium (5%), Japan (7%) and Great Britain
(7%) rank last on this measure.
Countries with the greatest improvements: Turkey (+7 to 35%), Saudi Arabia (+6 to 60%),
Indonesia ( 5 t 37%) Spain (+4 to 21%), Poland (+3 to 16%) and the United States (+3 to
I d i (+5 to 37%), S i ( 4 t 21%) P l d ( 3 t d th U it d St t ( 3 t
23%).
Countries with the greatest declines: China (-10 to 32%), Italy ( 9 to 12%), Sweden (-4 to
( 10 (-9 (4
12%), South Africa (-4 to 16%) and Hungary (-3 to 3%).
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 10
The Economic Pulse
11. 1. National Economic Assessments: Countries at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
Those Countries Where the Country Economic Assessment…
is has experienced an has experienced a is
HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT DECLINE LOWEST
this month since last sounding since last sounding this month
Saudi Arabia 86% Russia 5 China 7 Hungary 2%
Sweden 74% Turkey 4 South Korea 5 Spain 4%
Australia 68% United States 2 Belgium 5 Italy 5%
India 68% Australia 1 Indonesia 4 France 5%
Canada 63% Canada 1 Saudi Arabia 3 Japan 8%
Germany 61% Sweden 1 Germany 3 Great Britain 8%
Turkey 58% Spain 1 Argentina 3 Belgium 19%
Brazil 56% Japan
p 1 Brazil 3 United States 21%
China 55% Mexico 2 South Korea 21%
Great Britain 2
France 2
Poland
P l d 1
Hungary 1
Italy 1
India 1
Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 11
The Economic Pulse
12. 1. National Economic Assessment: Regions at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
CHANGE
REGION NET
(since last
(in descending order by NET) ‘Good’
sounding)
Middle East/Africa 59% 1%
BRIC 52% 2%
LATAM 46% 3%
North America (Can/US) 42% 2%
APAC 42% 2%
G8 25% N/C
Europe 23% 1%
Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 12
The Economic Pulse
13. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Countries at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
Those Countries Where the Local Area Economic Assessment…
is has experienced an has experienced a is
HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT DECLINE LOWEST
this month since last sounding since last sounding this month
Saudi Arabia 64% Sweden 5 Saudi Arabia 3 Japan 5%
China 48% United States 4 Brazil 3 Spain 6%
India 48% Poland 2 Germany 2 Hungary 7%
Sweden 48% Canada 1 Spain 2 Italy 10%
Australia 47% Russia 1 South Africa 2 France 12%
Brazil 46% Turkey 1 Belgium 2 Great Britain 13%
Canada 45% Australia 1 Argentina 2 Belgium 14%
Turkey 45% Mexico 1 South Korea 17%
Indonesia 1 Russia 19%
Japan
J 1 Poland
P l d 21%
Hungary 1
South Korea 1
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 13
The Economic Pulse
14. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Regions at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
REGION NET CHANGE
(in descending order by NET) ‘Strong’ (since last sounding)
Top 3 Box (5-6-7)
Middle East/Africa 44% 2%
BRIC 40% 1%
North America 34% 2%
LATAM 34% 2%
APAC 31% N/C
G-8 Countries 21% N/C
Europe
E 19% N/C
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 14
The Economic Pulse
15. 3. Six Month Outlook on the Local Economy: Countries
at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
Countries where the Assessment of the Local Economic Strengthening …
is has experienced an has experienced a is
HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT DECLINE LOWEST
this month since last sounding since last sounding this month
Brazil 71% Turkey 7 China 10 France 2%
Saudi Arabia 60% Saudi Arabia 6 Italy 9 Hungary 3%
India 50% Indonesia 5 Sweden 4 Belgium 5%
Argentina 45% Spain 4 South Africa 4 Japan 7%
Mexico 39% Poland 3 Hungary 3 Great Britain 7%
Indonesia 37% United States 3 South Korea 2 Sweden 12%
Turkey 35% Japan 1 Russia 2 South Korea 12%
China 32% Belgium 1 Great Britain 2 Italy 12%
Germany 2 Germany 13%
Australia 2 Russia 15%
Argentina 2
Brazil 1
Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be
much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 15
The Economic Pulse
16. 3. Six Month Outlook on Local Economy: Regions at
a Glance Compared to Last Wave…
REGION NET CHANGE
(in descending order by NET) ‘Stronger’ (since last sounding)
LATAM 51% 2%
BRIC 42% 3%
Middle East/Africa 37% 3%
APAC 24% 2%
North America 21% 2%
G-8 Countries 12% 2%
Europe 10% 1%
Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be
much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 16
The Economic Pulse
17. DETAILED FINDINGS
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 17
The Economic Pulse
18. Assessing The Current Economic
Situation
Sit ti …
…in Their Country
y
Detailed Tables B.3
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 18
The Economic Pulse
19. Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their
Country as “Good”
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
Total 38%
Saudi Arabia 86%
Sweden 74%
Australia 68%
India 68%
Canada 63%
Germany 61%
Turkey 58%
Brazil 56%
China 55%
Argentina 52%
Indonesia 46%
South Africa 32%
Mexico 30%
Russia 30%
Poland 27%
%
South Korea 21%
United States 21%
Belgium 19%
Great Britain 8%
Japan 8%
France 5%
Italy 5%
Spain 4%
Hungary 2%
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic
situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 19
The Economic Pulse
20. 1
Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current
Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”:…
Total Good
70%
60% 56% 55%
50% 45%
42% 41% 41%
40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40%
38% 38% 39% 39% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38%
40% 32%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Dec/10
Dec/11
Apr/07
Oct/07
Apr/08
Apr/09
Apr/10
Jun/10
Jul/10
Aug/10
Sept/10
Feb/11
Jun/11
Oct/10
Jan/11
Mar/11
Apr/11
Jul/11
Aug/11
Sept/11
Oct/11
Nov/08
v/Jan/10
Nov/10
Nov/11
May/10
May/11
S
S
Nov
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 20
The Economic Pulse
22. Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month
(Left Column) Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert
country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
Total (-1) 38%
Russia (+5) 30%
Turkey (+4) 58%
United States (+2) 21%
Australia (+1) 68%
Canada (+1) 63%
Sweden (+1) 74%
Spain (+1) 4%
Japan (+1) 8%
South Africa (N/C) 32%
India ( 1)
(-1) 68%
Italy (-1) 5%
Hungary (-1) 2% Green marks countries experiencing improvement;
Poland (-1) 27% Blue marks countries with no change from last month;
France (-2) 5% Red marks countries experiencing a decline…
Great Britain (-2) 8%
Mexico (-2) 30%
Brazil (-3) 56%
Argentina (-3) 52%
Germany (-3) 61%
Saudi Arabia (-3) 86%
Indonesia (-4) 46%
Belgium (-5) 19%
South K
S th Korea ( 5)
(-5) 21%
China (-7) 55%
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 22
The Economic Pulse
23. Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to
Last Month: Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Russia (+5) 5%
Turkey (+4) 4%
United States (+2) 2%
Australia (+1) 1%
Canada (+1) 1%
Sweden (+1) 1%
Spain (+1) 1%
Japan (+1) 1%
South Africa (N/C) 0%
-1% India (-1)
-1% Italy (-1)
-1% Hungary (-1)
-1% Poland (-1)
-2% France (-2)
-2% Great Britain (-2)
-2% Mexico (-2)
-3% Brazil (-3)
-3% Argentina (-3)
-3% Germany (-3)
-3% Saudi Arabia (-3)
-4% Indonesia (-4)
-5% Belgium (-5)
-5%
5% South K
S th Korea ( 5)
(-5)
-7% China (-7)
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 23
The Economic Pulse
24. Assessing the Current Economic Situation by All Regions:
Current Tracked Status:
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
80%
71%
70%
64%
59%
60%
61%
51% 52%
50%
46%
45%
40% 42%
30%
25%
20% 23%
10%
07
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
07
08
09
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
08
10
10
11
11
Oct/0
Mar/1
Jun/1
Aug/1
Oct/1
Dec/1
Feb/1
Mar/1
Jun/1
Aug/1
Oct/1
Dec/1
Apr/0
Apr/0
Apr/0
Nov/Jan/1
Apr/1
Jul/1
Sept/1
Jan/1
Apr/1
Jul/1
Sept/1
Nov/0
May/1
Nov/1
May/1
Nov/1
North America (Can/US) LATAM Europe APAC G8 BRIC Middle East/Africa
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 24
The Economic Pulse
25. North American (Canada/US) Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation 2
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
100%
90%
80%
80%
70%
63%
60%
47%
50%
40%
30%
21%
20%
10%
0%
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
07
07
08
08
09
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
Sept 201
Dec 201
Jan 201
Mar/1
Apr/1
Jun/1
Jul/1
Aug/1
Oct/1
Dec/1
Apr 200
Oct 200
Apr 200
Nov 200
Apr 200
Nov/Jan 201
Mar 201
Apr 201
May 201
Jun 201
Jul 201
Aug 201
Oct 201
Nov 201
Feb 201
Sept/1
Nov/1
May/1
United States Canada
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 25
The Economic Pulse
26. LATAM Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation
3
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
80%
70%
60% 56%
50%
50%
52%
42%
40%
30%
30%
20%
10%
0%
07
07
08
09
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
08
10
11
10
11
Apr-0
Oct-0
Apr-0
Apr-0
Nov-09/Jan-1
Mar-1
Apr-1
Jun-1
Jul-1
Aug-1
Sept-1
Oct-1
Dec-1
Jan-1
Feb-1
Mar-1
Apr-1
Jun-1
Jul-1
Aug-1
Sept-1
Oct-1
Dec-1
Nov-0
Nov-1
Nov-1
May-1
May-1
Brazil Argentina Mexico
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 26
The Economic Pulse
27. European Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation
1
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
90%
82%
80%
70%
64%
60%
50%
40%
34%
30%
20% 23%
15%11%
10%
11% 5%
4%
0%
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
Jan-
Feb-
Mar-
Apr-
Jun-
Jul-
Aug-
Sept-
Oct-
Dec-
Nov-
May-
Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary Poland
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – January 2012 – G@28 27
The Economic Pulse