This document provides guidelines for journalists on appropriately reporting opinion polls. It discusses [1] determining whether a poll meets professional standards, [2] deciding if a poll's findings have newsworthiness, and [3] the appropriate way to publish poll findings. Key points include checking a poll's methodology, sample size, and margin of error; using polls to enhance issues coverage rather than set the agenda; and providing full context and disclosure when publishing poll results. The guidelines aim to help journalists identify valid, reliable polls and determine the most meaningful way to communicate poll findings to their audience.

1. s of
Form rting
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A
Op in io n ary 201
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d, 6 Febru
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Brice R

2. Objectives
1) Determine whether a poll has been conducted according to
accepted professional standards
2) Determine whether a poll’s findings have legitimate news
value
3) Determine an appropriate way to publish/broadcast newsy
polls findings

3. INTRODUCTION

4. Polls are an inseparable part of news coverage. There is no
more accurate way to gauge the sentiments of the public
than through a carefully designed and executed opinion
poll:
 Because well done polls are reliable sources of
information, journalists must pay attention to them;
 Because not all polls are well done, journalists must
recognize which polls are valid and which polls are
meaningless. Polls results can be influenced by many
factors (wording, ordering of questions, sample etc.)
so be careful not to be influenced…

5. 1) WHEN DOES A POLL MEET
ACCEPTED PROFESSIONAL
STANDARDS?

6. • Only report on “scientific” polls
The major difference between scientific and unscientific
polls is who picks the respondents for the survey.
In a scientific one, the pollster identifies and seeks out the
people while in an unscientific poll the respondents
usually volunteer their opinions, selecting themselves for
the poll – for instance Internet polls and SMS polls.

7. • Ask yourself a number of questions to decide if the poll is
scientific or not (read Chapter 14 of Media Council of
Kenya’s Guidelines for Election Coverage for more on
this). Key Questions Every Journalist Should Ask About
Poll Results include:
– Who did the poll?
– Who paid for the poll and why was it done?
– How many people were interviewed for the survey?
– How were the respondents chosen?
– What is the sampling error for the poll results?
– When was the poll done?
– What area (nation, state, or region) or what group (teachers, lawyers,
Democratic voters, etc.) were these people chosen from?

8. – Are the results based on the answers of all the people interviewed?
– Who should have been interviewed and was not? Or do response rates
matter?
– How were the interviews conducted? What about polls on the Internet or
World Wide Web?
– Who’s on first?
– What questions were asked?
– In what order were the questions asked?
– What about "push polls?"
– What other polls have been done on this topic? Do they say the same
thing? If they are different, why are they different?
– What about exit polls?

9. Answers:
- If the answers sound good, the poll was conducted properly. Then
you can decide to report or not, depending on information / news
you can gather from the poll.
- If a poll appears to have been conducted using dubious
methodology: 1) do not publish: its outcome should receive no
mention in the media, 2) there may be another story behind the
poll…
Key concerns:
– Validity. Who commissioned has an influence on results.
– Capacity of the pollster (reliability and truthfulness of results)
– Representativity.
– Margin of error.
– Context.

10. 2) WHEN IS A POLL
NEWSWORTHY?

11. Use the opinion poll as a source of information.
Information must be timely and newsy.
Examples – Newsy or not?
-Dec 2012: Raila Odinga leads voting intentions having 42% voting
intentions. The second favorite candidate for Kenyans is Uhuru Kenyatta
with 40% voting intentions.
-January 2012: Kalonzo Musyoka is the most popular leader in Eastern
province - 80% of voters saying they would vote for him in the next
election.
-February 2012: Voters are particularly concerned about two issues in the
country: inflation and security. When asked “what is your main
preoccupation?” 25% responded “inflation” and 23% “insecurity’’

12. Be careful:
= Voting intentions are not always newsy
= Voting intentions are not the only thing that
matters
= What are the real issues contained in the opinion
poll that matter for your audience/readership?
= Follow up on poll results by investigations.
Opinion polls are not a story on their own but a
source of information.

13. Advice to journalists
1)Beware of press releases that suggest a “slight” or “modest” trend
2) Distinguish between poll findings and a pollster’s interpretation of poll
findings.
Example 1: X leads with 42% while Y has 39%.
Example 2: This has an impact on that – but there is no evidence of impact.
There may be a huge difference disguised in a press release. So have
your own interpretation!
3) Investigate alternative explanations for poll results that are surprising.
Is it a one day instant poll? Is it an online poll claiming to represent
voters? Is there a low response rate?

14. Advice to journalists
4) Beware of analysts who seek to predict the election based on a
poll. A poll’s ability to predict is limited because:
- at least 10% of all voters make up their mind on the voting
day .
- contemporary campaigns are designed to move voters late
in the campaign (most advertising is spent the weekend
before the election).
- Polls often underestimate the third-party candidate (le Pen
in France in 2002; Ross Perot in the US in 1992).

15. 5) Lighten up on the horse race.
Opinion polls and media releases of major candidates focus on the horse race
especially the final two months of the campaign. Don’t be fixated on a story!
Do not neglect to give voters what they want/need to help them decide for
whom they vote.
Media studies show that voters are much more interested
in stories about the candidates issue positions and stories
about how the election might affect them than they are in
stories about the horse race. Many voters say the media
pay too much attention to the horse race.

16. Advice to journalists
6) Don’t use polls to decide what issues to emphasize in election
coverage.
An opinion poll can’t set the campaign agenda – that would be an
abdication of your leadership responsibility. Opinion poll is data. You
should use poll to enhance your leadership not substitute it.
7) Don’t use polls to ask the public for its expert opinion in
matters where it is not expert.
Q: “Do you think that the Kenyan foreign policy should reconsider the
partnership with Burma?”
8) Don’t consider the public is monolithic with uniform knowledge
and concern. It is just the sum of particular groups…

17. 3) APPROPRIATE WAY
TO PUBLISH/BROADCAST
POLLS FINDINGS

18. When any public opinion findings are published in print media,
these should be accompanied by a clear statement of:
-a) the name of the research organization carrying out the survey
-b) the universe effectively represented (i.e. who was interviewed)
-c) the achieved sample size and its geographical coverage
-d) the dates of field work
-e) the sampling method used
-f) the method by which the information was collected (personal, telephone
interview etc.)
-g) the relevant question asked. To avoid possible ambiguity the actual wording of
the question should be given.
In case of broadcast media:
it may not be possible to give information on all these points so cover as a
minimum points a) through d) above.
TV: use visuals to cover these points!

19. Recommendation for print journalists: use a ‘data box’
The survey was
carried out by ABC
Research on behalf
of Internews using a Survey carried out by XYZ Research on
national quota behalf of News Inc. National survey of 1234
sample of 1111 adults of 18 and above, interviewed by
adults of voting age telephone between 25th and 28th February
personally 2012 using random digit dialing and a quota
interviewed in 102 sample.
locations between 1st-
5th March 2012.

20. It is even simpler for on line journalists as they can provide
information at the bottom of the article and a link to the whole
study!
Example:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57395703-503544/poll-obamas-a

21. Advice to journalists
1) Make clear which group is of voters is being measured: voters,
registered voters, probable voters etc.
2) The percentage of respondents who give “I don’t know answers” and
those who say they are not going to vote must always be given. They
can significantly affect the findings!
3) In the case of voting intentions surveys, it must be always be made
clear if voting percentages include any of these respondents who
answered “don’t know” or “will not vote”.
4) Always report polls with context.
Example: precise if the poll was conducted three days after the ICC
confirmation of hearings, or one week before the Kenyan military
incursion into Somalia etc.

22. 5) Understand and give the margin of error in the case of voting intentions
surveys, especially when there is a horse race (see New York Times
policy).
Question: How could journalists report on the findings of the 2007 Synovate
poll saying that Kibaki had 42% intention votes and Raila 39% bearing in
mind the 3% margin of error?

23. Advice to journalists
6) When reporting the comparison between polls, the margin
of sampling error of the difference “between” polls must be
determined.
7) Avoid using polls conducted by parties or individual
campaigns. Prefer the polls commissioned by your media
house.

24. THANK YOU!