1. How Early Warning and Response
Intelligence Applies to Crisis
Management
A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// 16 October 2013
~ featuring ~
Joe Goldberg
The Intelligence Collaborative
http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Derek Johnson
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2. Joe Goldberg has over 25 years of experience in intelligence, political risk,
crisis management, public and corporate strategy, communications and
media research. Previously, he was Senior Director, Intelligence in Motorola’s
Corporate Strategy Office where he was responsible for worldwide
intelligence processes, competitive analysis and collection. Prior to joining
Motorola, he worked for the U.S. Government for eight years where he was
involved in all facets of information collection and political analysis.
Joe is a past President of SCIP’s Board of Directors, a SCIP Fellow (2006), and
in 2013 was presented the association’s highest honor – the Meritorious
Award. He has a BA in Political Science, and Communications and Theater
Arts from the University of Iowa, and a Masters of Arts degree from Iowa in
Communications.
Joe Goldberg
Email: joe@jeggroup.com
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking
community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends
and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve realworld business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn
more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
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3. Questions, Commentary & Content
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4. Agenda
► What is a Crisis?
► Crisis and Intelligence
► Case Studies
► Bottom Lines
► Q&A and Discussion
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5. Acknowledgements
Crisis in Organizations II
Crisis Leadership Now
By Laurence Barton
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6. Crisis events are unpredictable…
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•
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A situation, sudden or evolving, that
could result in significant disruptions to
business operations, reputation, or
survival.
They are not strategic shifts, or tactical
changes in a market.
A crisis is serious. It goes beyond
normal demands or leadership actions.
Origins, causes, manifestations are many
and varied.
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7. …but not always unanticipated.
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Crisis Management (CM) is a process to
identify the potential serious situation.
The process creates organizational
response and communication plan
frameworks in advance.
Structure, plans, people, and culture form
the elements of CM capabilities.
It demands extraordinary management.
Evaluation
Preparation
Crisis
Response
Crisis Management Cycle
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8. Intelligence is Foundational to Crisis Processes
•
•
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Environmental scanning, Early Warning, War-gaming, etc.
Adept at creating and utilizing systems to gather, monitor
and interpret information.
“Free-thinkers” who are not easily distracted by events.
Comfortable sifting through large amounts of data to find
critical insights.
We know the difference between reliable information
and rumor and conjecture.
Evaluation
Intelligence
Filter
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Preparation
Crisis
Response
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9. Intelligence is Part of the Crisis Management Team
(CMT):
• Preparation, Training, Plans
• Experience in working with
diverse teams
Legal
Strategy &
Intelligence
• Strategic thinking and horizon
scanning
• Support communications and
stakeholder deliverables
“Any team attempting to make
potential life or death or business
critical decisions must have the best
and most timely information at its
fingertips.”
The Cornerstones of Crisis
Management
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HR
CMT
Leadership
PR
Security
IT
Crisis Management Team
(Size and members can vary as needed)
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10. To be effective, the CMT must have a clear understanding
of what has happened, what is happening and have a
vision of how the future may play out:
This is the role of Intelligence
In crisis situations, intelligence must help decision-making answer key
questions, such as:
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•
•
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What are we going to do now?
What are we going to do next?
What should we be thinking about and doing in the future?
What is the worst case scenario?
It involves taking an objective assessment of the situation - the known
and recognized facts - developing a strategy and delivering direction
quickly.
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11. Preparation: Intelligence Understands Early Warning
Processes – We Explore Potential Threats and Issues
“Classical” Intelligence activities:
Evaluation
Preparation
Crisis
Response
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Proactive thinking
War-gaming
SWOT
KITs
Benchmarking
External relationships
Training
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12. Response: In a Crisis, the Intelligence Function
Must Do What It Always Does, Just Quicker
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Evaluation
Preparation
Crisis Response
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Direct leadership and CMT
support
Vulnerability assessments
Crisis response scenarios
Communications strategies
Social Media mining
News filtering
External relationships
Starting to look post-crisis
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13. Speed is an Inherent Characteristic of a Crisis:
The Complexity of Social Media
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Everything happens at lightning-speed.
Overwhelming amount of data to filter.
Staff are required to work under immense pressure.
News, rumor, conjecture, inaccuracies spread fast.
Media
Sharing
Editorial
0 Hour
CRISIS
HITS
TIME
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Source: Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide

14. There is No Refuge From a Crisis
•
Crises do not just happen
to major corporations.
They can strike
everywhere: hospitals,
schools small businesses,
sports teams, churches,
and governments.
•
And in each instance,
accurate, timely
information is critical.
•
News spread quickly one Saturday evening
that former Penn State football coach Joe
Paterno had died. Except, he hadn’t.
When there is bad
intelligence, bad things
happen….
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15. Bad Intel used
by CBS
Bad
Sourcing
Bad day for CBS
(CBS did not source
OnwardState).
Bad for the
image of CBS
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16. Speed: Social Media Impact - BP Spill, April 20 – July 15, 2010
• 97,00 blog posts discussing BP, with 1,084 new
posts per day
• 2,992 links in 30 days
• 3,940 videos uploaded to YouTube containing
the exact match of “BP Oil Spill
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• A fake Twitter account was created to parody
BP’s efforts. The account had 134,792
followers - 1,036% greater than the official BP
Twitter account
• BP’s official Facebook Page averaged over 155
comments per BP wall post
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17. Evaluation: Intelligence Plays a Role Post-Crisis
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Evaluation
Preparation
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Crisis Response
•
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Look for areas for improvement
by reviewing the crisis,
evaluating the response, the
plans and procedures, tools and
facilities.
There could be a new business
reality post-crisis.
The objective nature of
Intelligence can serve as a lead
function to identify this new
environment.
Provide recommendations and
new warning mechanisms
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18. The Unpredictable Crisis
Motorola: September 11, 2001
Situation:
Following the terrorist attacks of 9-11, Motorola
had to determine the impact these events would
have on its future business operations. The
company's world-wide crisis team was convened
and tasked with gathering and analyzing all
relevant news and data in order to provide
recommendations regarding company
positioning and operational planning.
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19. The Unpredictable Crisis
Motorola: September 11, 2001
Actions:
Working with relevant business functions, the
intelligence team prepared and oversaw the
creation of threat assessments. These focused
on global business facilities, personnel,
transportation, and supply chain management. It
also undertook the task of projecting other
possible terror crisis scenarios and then created
response plans to avoid or minimize business
interference to the corporation.
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20. The Unpredictable Crisis
Motorola: September 11, 2001
“Most-likely” country vulnerability assessments:
• Threats to personnel
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Travel
Hostage/ransom
Death
• Threats to facilities
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Symbol of USA
Continuity
• Threats to business operations
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Supply chain
Air embargo
• Scenarios in Chicago – Are we next?
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21. The Anticipated Crisis
SARS – Avian Flu 2002-2004
Situation:
In late 2002, SARS began to work its way around the world.
By the time the outbreak ended in July 2003, about 800
people in 26 countries had died from the disease, just under
10 percent of those believed to have been infected. The vast
majority of SARS cases were reported in Asia. Concerns
about the disease led to severe travel restrictions in some
countries, closure of premises by government authorities,
quarantines, and other business disruptions. The Asian
Development Bank estimated the total lost business revenue
at about $60 billion. The 2004 bird-flu crisis had many
similarities to the outbreak of SARS.
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22. The Anticipated Crisis
SARS – Avian Flu 2002-2004
Actions:
Global CMT call weekly to discuss business
continuity elements in case of the pandemic.
Primary focus was current event update,
communication plan, contingency plan by country,
and on-going monitoring plans.
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23. The Unpredictable Crisis
Motorola: September 11, 2001
Primary intelligence focus was on news filtering,
external source development:
• Asia business units monitored local press and
reported.
• Reports collected from relevant global health
organizations (WHO, UN, CDC).
• Contacts made with experts and analysis
following the issue.
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24. Joe’s Bottom Line Statement #1:
Help Your Company Avoid the “Nothingness Culture”
“Nothing
Happened”
A thought process
similar to
counterintelligence in
business
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“Nothing
Happened”
“So nothing will
happen…”
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25. Joe’s Least Bottom Line Statement #2
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in
the face.” – Mike Tyson
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26. Thank you! Now how about a
little Q&A?
Email: joe@jeggroup.com
Joe Goldberg
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking
community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends
and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve realworld business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn
more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
The Intelligence Collaborative
http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
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