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Gas Development Master Plan
Gas Infrastructure Development


Presented by:
John Bowers
Petroleum Development Consultants, UK


Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta
21 June 2012
Contents
• Key objectives
• Key technical issues
• Transportation Systems
      Transmission pipelines
      Distribution systems
      LNG
      CNG Ships
• Gas Utilisation




                                2
Key objectives
• Gas Development Master Plan will focus on:
   – Gas demand-supply projections
   – Optimum gas field development to meet growing demand
   – Substitution of export gas with domestic supply
   – Optimizing flow patterns from existing fields to demand centres
   – Optimizing the expansion of gas supply and transmission infrastructure
   – Recommending policy, legal, regulatory and institutional framework
   To produce:
     A proposed investment timeline through 2025 along with potential
     projects that need to be financed - including identification of the least
     cost and most optimal gas-based solutions for Indonesia




                                                                                 3
Transmission & Distribution Plan
• There is an existing plan for gas transmission &
  distribution development which we will analyse.
• The supply & demand basis for that plan is not
  completely clear on initial review.
• There is also another study prepared on behalf of ADB
  which we will take into account.
• Our GDMP will also determine the interconnectivity
  requirements essential for load management and
  security of supply.




                                                          4
Key technical issues
• Supply
   •   Location and volume of gas available for local/ domestic market;
   •   Spare LNG capacity after export commitments;

• Demand
   •   Location of major consumers;
   •   Appropriate markets/ utilisation;
   •   Load duration & load factor

• Transportation systems
   •   Appropriate to circumstances;
   •   Load factors and load management;
   •   Security of supply;

                                                                          5
Key technical issue - 1
           Gas supply locations                 Principal ‘domestic’
                                                      demand




      Pipelines exist

                        700 km
                                      1800 km




• Distances are the key issue for transportation?

                                                                       6
Gas Transportation Systems
• Comparative relationship between transport systems
•   Pipelines
      Short/ medium distance
      High capacity
                                             Pipelines          LNG
•   LNG
      Long distances


                                Gas Volume
      High capacity
•   CNG                                                        CNG

      Medium/ long distance                                   Stranded
      Small capacity
                                                 Distance to Market



                                                                          7
Key technical issue - 2
                                                              100%
• Load Profile
                                                              80%
  •   Daily (diurnal), see example




                                               POWER DEMAND
  •
                                                              60%
      Annual (seasonal swing)
  •   For Indonesia, daily profile most                       40%


      important                                               20%



• Load duration curve                                          0%
                                                                     0   3   6    9       12        15   18   21   24
                                                                                      HOUR OF DAY
  •   Relationship between generating          100%
      capacity requirements and
      capacity utilization.                           80%

  •   Flat line means high utilisation.               60%

  •   Also applies to gas pipeline                    40%
                                                                                 BASE LOAD
                                                      20%
• Load factor (%)
                                                              0%
  •   = Average load/ Peak load
  •   High LF vital for efficient power generation
  •   Low LF requires larger diameter pipelines for higher flow rates plus storage
      capacity to meet peak flows
                                                                                                                        8
Pipeline Transmission systems
• Reasonable capital cost depending on:
  • Distances between supply points and demand centres
  • ease of construction – topography/ terrain
  • Operating pressure
• Low operating costs:
  • Low maintenance, high reliability
  • Long life
• Inherent linepack storage for load management
• Interconnection gives high security of supply
• Less flexible if location of demand changes




                                                         9
Distribution systems
• High capital cost & low capacity depending on:
  •   Pipe length & diameter
  •   Restricted operating pressures - safety
  •   Urban conditions, ease of construction, traffic,
  •   No inherent storage – designed to meet peak load
• Low operating costs:
  • Low maintenance, good reliability
  • Long life
• Long term investment




                                                         10
LNG Systems
• High capital cost
  • Need spare liquefaction capacity to be viable
  • Onshore re-gas terminal or FSRU
  • Ships
• High operating costs
  •   Shipping costs
  •   Cryogenic materials, expensive to replace
  •   High maintenance but generally reliable
  •   Medium life
• Inherent storage for load management
• Flexible location (FSRUs)




                                                    11
CNG Shipping
• Reasonable capital cost depending on;
  • Compression requirements
  • Capacity
• Reasonable operating costs, but
  • Reliability?
  • Maintenance?
  • Medium life?
• Low capacity,
  • Inherent storage but delivery scheduling critical without fixed storage
• Relatively unproven concept




                                                                              12
Gas Utilisation
Power generation, base load or peak shaving
Fertilisers, feedstock, cement;
Energy intensive industrial developments
• Households & commercial premises
  ? Only for cooking, water heating
  ? High investment, low revenue
• Vehicle fuel (CNG) dependent on:
  ? Availability of filling stations
  ? Cost of conversion




                                               13

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Gas infrastructure john bowers (formatted)

  • 1. Gas Development Master Plan Gas Infrastructure Development Presented by: John Bowers Petroleum Development Consultants, UK Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta 21 June 2012
  • 2. Contents • Key objectives • Key technical issues • Transportation Systems  Transmission pipelines  Distribution systems  LNG  CNG Ships • Gas Utilisation 2
  • 3. Key objectives • Gas Development Master Plan will focus on: – Gas demand-supply projections – Optimum gas field development to meet growing demand – Substitution of export gas with domestic supply – Optimizing flow patterns from existing fields to demand centres – Optimizing the expansion of gas supply and transmission infrastructure – Recommending policy, legal, regulatory and institutional framework To produce: A proposed investment timeline through 2025 along with potential projects that need to be financed - including identification of the least cost and most optimal gas-based solutions for Indonesia 3
  • 4. Transmission & Distribution Plan • There is an existing plan for gas transmission & distribution development which we will analyse. • The supply & demand basis for that plan is not completely clear on initial review. • There is also another study prepared on behalf of ADB which we will take into account. • Our GDMP will also determine the interconnectivity requirements essential for load management and security of supply. 4
  • 5. Key technical issues • Supply • Location and volume of gas available for local/ domestic market; • Spare LNG capacity after export commitments; • Demand • Location of major consumers; • Appropriate markets/ utilisation; • Load duration & load factor • Transportation systems • Appropriate to circumstances; • Load factors and load management; • Security of supply; 5
  • 6. Key technical issue - 1 Gas supply locations Principal ‘domestic’ demand Pipelines exist 700 km 1800 km • Distances are the key issue for transportation? 6
  • 7. Gas Transportation Systems • Comparative relationship between transport systems • Pipelines  Short/ medium distance  High capacity Pipelines LNG • LNG  Long distances Gas Volume  High capacity • CNG CNG  Medium/ long distance Stranded  Small capacity Distance to Market 7
  • 8. Key technical issue - 2 100% • Load Profile 80% • Daily (diurnal), see example POWER DEMAND • 60% Annual (seasonal swing) • For Indonesia, daily profile most 40% important 20% • Load duration curve 0% 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 HOUR OF DAY • Relationship between generating 100% capacity requirements and capacity utilization. 80% • Flat line means high utilisation. 60% • Also applies to gas pipeline 40% BASE LOAD 20% • Load factor (%) 0% • = Average load/ Peak load • High LF vital for efficient power generation • Low LF requires larger diameter pipelines for higher flow rates plus storage capacity to meet peak flows 8
  • 9. Pipeline Transmission systems • Reasonable capital cost depending on: • Distances between supply points and demand centres • ease of construction – topography/ terrain • Operating pressure • Low operating costs: • Low maintenance, high reliability • Long life • Inherent linepack storage for load management • Interconnection gives high security of supply • Less flexible if location of demand changes 9
  • 10. Distribution systems • High capital cost & low capacity depending on: • Pipe length & diameter • Restricted operating pressures - safety • Urban conditions, ease of construction, traffic, • No inherent storage – designed to meet peak load • Low operating costs: • Low maintenance, good reliability • Long life • Long term investment 10
  • 11. LNG Systems • High capital cost • Need spare liquefaction capacity to be viable • Onshore re-gas terminal or FSRU • Ships • High operating costs • Shipping costs • Cryogenic materials, expensive to replace • High maintenance but generally reliable • Medium life • Inherent storage for load management • Flexible location (FSRUs) 11
  • 12. CNG Shipping • Reasonable capital cost depending on; • Compression requirements • Capacity • Reasonable operating costs, but • Reliability? • Maintenance? • Medium life? • Low capacity, • Inherent storage but delivery scheduling critical without fixed storage • Relatively unproven concept 12
  • 13. Gas Utilisation Power generation, base load or peak shaving Fertilisers, feedstock, cement; Energy intensive industrial developments • Households & commercial premises ? Only for cooking, water heating ? High investment, low revenue • Vehicle fuel (CNG) dependent on: ? Availability of filling stations ? Cost of conversion 13