Time Series Foundation Models - current state and future directions
cogitators
1. Sowing Prosperity
Team Details
Sunil Kumar MN| Alan Bagya Praveen| Gokula Bala|
Sathish Prabahar| Harinivash B|
Boosting Agricultural Productivity
The timely challenge for India
2. Current Scenario of agriculture in
India
GDP growth
• The GDP share of agriculture in India has decline
to less than 14% over last 50 years
• Average agriculture growth is 3.7% during 11th
five year plan
Employment
• Two thirds of India’s population depends on
rural employment
• 42% of farmers are ready to quit agriculture due
to low farm income
• Famers receive price 20% less than what the
consumer pays
Land
• 20 lakh hectares of cultivable land have been put
to use for non agricultural purposes
• About 120.72 and 8.4 million hectares of land is
degraded due to soil erosion, water logging and
soil salinity respectively
• Annually India is losing nearly 0.8, 1.8 & 26.3
million tonnes of nitrogen, phosphorous &
potassium respectively
Water
• 80% of water resources are used for agriculture,
out of it only 38% is efficiently utilized and
remaining is lost in the distribution system
• In India, abstraction of ground water is 251 cubic
km per year, -25% of global groundwater
abstraction in the world
• Soil Fertility and Soil Erosion
• Ground water level depletion
• Water ContaminationNatural
• Access to formal and informal
Education
• Knowledge of farming management
systems
Human
• Precision Farming
• Simulation techniques to estimate the
water level and climatic condition
• Fertilizers
Technology
• Credit access
• Insurance Schemes for crops
• Government subsidies and minimum
support price
Financial
• Access to markets through proper
transport
• Storage facilitiesPhysical
PreProduction
DuringProduction
Post-Production
Overview of all process in agriculture
3. Driving factors for the Proposed model
• Increase in food Demand: The population of India is
growing at the rate of 1.8% per year and is expected
to double in 40 years
• Concentration on Rainfed agriculture: Out of 3
hectare of cultivable land in our country, two thirds
are under rainfed agriculture
• Average Age: In 2020, the average age of the Indian
is estimated to be 29 years
• Scope of agriculture: 42% of farmers are ready to
quit agriculture due to higher income in other
sectors
• Retail System: Indian retail system is highly
inefficient
• Transport and Storage facilities: Lack of transport
and storage facilities for crops to reach the
consumers
• Lack of information: Deprivation of local
infrastructure, climatic conditions, information on
soil quality and awareness on technology to farmers
• 83% of famers have operating land holdings of
less than 2 hectares
The need for a change in model to increase agricultural productivity
Expected outcomes of the model
• Increased outcome: The most important
outcome of this model would be increased
livelihood for the farmers and their ability to
exercise more responsible use of the natural
resource base
• Empowerment: Empowers the farmers through
informed decisions taken by them and to increase
capacity to sustain their own development efforts
• Creating Operational Links: The operating
institutional links that would be created between
the farmers ,development committees and
universities enabling them to overcome
production and post harvest specific farmers
• Skilled labours: Availability of better skilled
personnel in specific areas such as irrigated and
irrigated helps in improving agricultural
productivity by solving timely solutions to
problem
• Employment: Both rural and urban employment
can be improved to an greater extent
4. Proposed Model- Value Delivery Network (Not a solution, but certainly helps!)
India
Alluvial Black
Red &
Yellow
Rain-Fed region
Zonal
Committee1
Village
Zone1
Business
Model1
Village
Zone2
Business
Model2
Irrigated region
Zonal
Committee2
Village
Zone3
Business
Model3
Village
Zone4
Business
Model4
Laterite Desert Mountain
Region based
States
classified
based on 6
soil Types
Zonal committee
under each region
Group of villages
form a zone and
monitored by each
Zonal committee
Vision: To build a productive, competitive and diversified agricultural sector
and facilitate rural employment
5. Implementation of Value Delivery Network
• It is a special network formed exclusively for agricultural sector to develop dynamic agricultural
model and knowledge system
• Classification based on soil: The regionalization of agricultural Indian states are done based on six
major types of soil distributed across India.
• Classification based on water dependency: Every Indian states are sub-divided into two major
regions based on dependency on water viz., rainfed and irrigated
• Committee members: Each region will have regulatory body(Zonal Committee) which comprises
of expert personnel- Environmentalist, Economist, Pedologist, Agricultural technology specialist
employed by the central governments.
• Zonal group division: Both regions(rainfed, irrigated) are further sub divided into zones(group of
villages-approx 5-10).
• Zonal members: Every zone will have zonal administrative Officer, Intermediary officer, Legal
advisor, Crop protection officer, Knowledge personnel
• Database framework: Each zone will have zonal database framework which would facilitate
interconnection between all zones across India. This database contains farmer details, crops
produced, technology used, details regarding financial Supports and the respective business
model
• Village: Each village will have a village representative who is an agriculturalist who is responsible
for farming and the business model followed
• Various business models(Joint venture, contract farming, management contract and supply chains
relations ) can be followed to create greater value for both farmers and consumers
6. Environmentalist
• To increase agro-forestry projects
• Studies the climatic change pattern and advice
zonal officers on timely cultivation and timely
harvesting
Hydrologist
• To manage the ground water level and its
quality and takes care in controlling water
depletion and contamination
• To monitor farmers to follow drip/drop
irrigation techniques and efficient utilization of
water
Economist
• To conduct research on econometric analysis
on values of crop production, water supply
demand and soil fertility
• To study demand and supply of the market and
alarm the situation to zonal officers
Pedologist
• To study soil formation, classification, fertility
and the proper use and management of soil
• Chemical composition of the soil are tested to
grow crops and plants accordingly
Techno Specialist
• To improve agriculture mechanization
• Facilitates modern agricultural practices
Legal advisors
• To create awareness on beneficial schemes for
farmers
• To ensure every farmers access to credit and
insurance policies
Zonal administrative officer
• To conduct quarterly meetings among farmers
to motivate and influence their agricultural
mechanisms
• To distribute the resources to farmers and also
decides the business model based on feasibility
Crop protection officer
• Encourage development of drought and
climate resistant genes
• Interact with village groups to facilitate them to
use integrated pest management techniques
depending on the crop
Intermediary Officer
• To procure produces directly from farmers and
channelize it to the government and consumers
• Encourage farmers to engage privately through
national innovation centre for activities
Knowledge Personnel
• To play an interface role between regional
experts and farmers
• To educate every individual on latest
technologies , crop yielding techniques and
better plant protection methods through
training programs and workshops
Roles and Responsibilities of officers in the value delivery network
Regional officers(Zonal Committee) Zonal officers
7. Agriculture investment need not always be a private land tenure-Explore different
models
Business model Advantages Challenges and
Opportunities
Joint venture •Shared risks and benefits
•Reduced political risks and
supplies supplier information
•Increased capacity, value addition
activities, co-existence and
immediate livelihood benefits
Contract farming •Secured market for suppliers,
access to credit, farmers maintain
land ownership
•Monopsony
•Well established –Equitable
distribution within the market
chain
•high value crops
Multi-parti model •Government agencies, private
companies and farmers can play
roles in different areas of value
chain
•Negotiation power
•Enforcement- Contract default
•Clarity on terms of relationship
Cooperative farming •Co-financing- Credit, extension
services, research
•Conservation agriculture
involving local communities as
partners and co-producers
Management contract •Build capacity and strategic
alliances with other practitioners
•Opportunities beyond direct
agriculture
Models can be chosen/ customized deliberately to suit the need
Other innovative models can also be followed for environmental and economical sustainability
8. Acquisition act: Land acquisition act can be strengthened
Supply chain management: Improve supply chain management
Support Price: Minimum support price for crops
Cropping incentive: Increase in cropping intensity and Incentives
for farmers
Land reforms: Beneficiaries of land reforms can be organised in
to self help groups that empower them for equitable access to
credit, irrigation water and quality seeds
Increased opportunities in other sectors and loss in farm income leads to
decline in average size of land holdings. Action needs to be taken to promote
technology, water and soil resources thereby increasing the productivity
Database creation: Database containing the collection
of latest technologies and implications of WTO on
agriculture can be created which would enable the
farmers to gain access to best practices
Geographic information systems : Land can be mapped
digitally and pertinent geodetic data such as
topography and contours can be combined to provide
analysis of soil.
Biotechnology: Use of genetically modified crops such
as water resistant crops will reduce the farmers
dependence on water and would improve the growth
Simulation Tools: Collecting the historical data related
for past 30 years and combining the data with inputs
such as soil, water facilities to provide suggestion on
the crops that can be planted for the current year to
farmers.
Improve technology in agriculture
Check dams: Check dams, canals, lakes and ponds can be
constructed to maintain the under ground water table
Irrigation facility: Good efficient irrigation techniques like drip
irrigation
Harvesting techniques: Improve rain water harvesting &
recycling techniques
Water shed management: Develop integrated water shed
management models
Partnerships: Partnership with local farmers will introduce
pivot irrigation as an alternate to traditional flood irrigation
Government programme: Dedicated government programme
and integrated aquifer mapping to manage groundwater level
Increase in water resources
Soil fertility: Soil fertility to be analysed & Soil test to
be done before plantation for proper crop selection
Fertilizers: Eco-friendly pesticides & fertilizers are used
Crop Rotation: Rotation of crops to regenerate
nutrients and encourage contour farming
Cover Crops: Cover crops are planted alongside with
other crops to avoid soil erosion and prevent over
exposure to sun
Soil resources development
Steps to be taken to maintain land resources
9. Recommended Government Policies and advantages
Policies Advantages
Concept of public and private can be
introduced in agriculture and allied sectors
Better capital investment
Intermediaries between producers and
consumers can be eliminated
Huge benefits and profits to farmers
Method of contract farmers between producer
and consumer can be practiced
More people would take up agricultural activity
incentivizing to produce more
Concept of cooperative/Integrating farming can
be introduced among small and marginal land
holders
Opportunity to increase economic yield per
unit area per unit time
Effective utilization of land
Leasing in and leasing out of agricultural land
can be legalised and permitted within ceiling
limits of various states
Illegal possession of land can be controlled
More Dynamic Insurance policies Helps the capacity of the farmers in absorbing
the shock( Extreme weather and climate
changes)
Enactment of laws for ecological foundation for
climate resilient agriculture, waste
management and carbon sequestration of soil
Overall natural resources can be managed
efficiently
10. Additional Solutions
• Media channel: An exclusive media channel for agricultural programs which include crop cultivation
techniques, schemes for farmers, technological updates.
• Promotion for agricultural education:
Agricultural universities are to be increased which promote
Compulsory subjects on farming are to be introduced for 8th to 10th standard students.
• Creating awareness among farmers:
Organizing yearly agriculture conferences for zonal officers and workshops on Innovative
techniques for farmers through agricultural university.
Encourage farmers to take up non farming activities like poultry, cattle, fishing and other activities
which provide opportunities for off-farm employment and increase their income
• Labor employment:
MGNREGA can be extended to provide employment in agriculture, eliminating dearth of farm
labourers.
• Food processing: Demand for processed food is expected to increase because of high income and
demand Investment in food processing would enhance the income of farmers.
• Exclusive transportation: A separate transportation department for distribution of agricultural produces
to the market
• Utilization of rainfed areas: The potential of the rainfed areas has not been fully utilised. Rainfed areas
are prioritised for agricultural production through the proposed model
• Tillage agriculture: Reform agricultural practices to be less harmful for forest regeneration by utilising
zero tillage agriculture
• Bio fuel: Contribution of bio fuel to energy supply will improve energy security and provide new income
source for farmers because at present bio fuel 35 billion lit is 2 % of annual gasoline consumption
world wide
• Improve supply chain management
11. •Optimizing the use of energy in crop production
and management of waste in agricultural crops
•On a technological prone environment, it is
difficult to concentrate more on agriculture in initial
stages
•Despite existing agricultural sector, developing a
new network requires huge investment and
maintenance cost
• The infrastructure cost for starting new
agricultural universities is high
•Budget allocation towards agriculture needs to be
redefined
•Career trends for younger generation needs to be
directed towards agriculture
•Integration and cooperation between the different
roles in regional committee and zonal officers is
important
•Suitable business models need to be chosen based
on the environment, technology and availability of
resources
Implementation Challenges
The value delivery network for improving agricultural productivity involves
various challenges and implementation risks
In India, 6,40,867 villages are divided approximately into
64,000 zones. 30 people per zone will lead to 19,20,000
employees of which 9,20,000 people are specialists and
remaining are for administrative services.
In addition to this, 80,000 specialists are required to
operate at the state level. In total 10,00,000 Specialist
are to be recruited from agricultural universities
Opening of more agricultural universities and increase in
number of seats will bring about a lakh of students. This
will increase the demand and would encourage youth to
take up agriculture. In 5 years, the requirement of
10,00,000 employees would be satisfied.
The proposed model to be successful would at least
require 5 years to after having created the demand for
agricultural courses in India.
Future employment opportunities
12. •http://www.icar.org.in/en/node/5943
•http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/
•http://www.gov.ns.ca/agri/bde/news/pdfs/AgriBusinessPlan.pdf - A new agri-business plan
•http://www.rainforestconservation.org/rainforest-primer/6-conservation-of-tropical-rainforests/a-
means-of-conserving-tropical-rainforests/6-improvement-of-agricultural-methods-and-productivity
•http://www.igidr.ac.in/newspdf/srijit/PP-069-SMD1.pdf- Policies for Raising Agricultural Growth and
Productivity in India
•http://www.preservearticles.com/201106228367/causes-for-low-productivity-of-indian-
agriculture.html
•http://www.unescap.org/pdd/publications/apdj_10_2/mahadevan.pdf
•http://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/publications/sro-sa-agri-iputs-business-opportunities.pdf
References