Results below estimates led by weak farm incomes, polymer price decline: JI reported a revenue of Rs12.9 billion (est. Rs14.4 billion), YoY de-growth of 6%. While growth in Micro Irrigation (MIS) (-10.5% YoY) was weak due to lower farm incomes (impacted by untimely rains and drought in Maharashtra and lower agri commodity prices), PVC Pipes (-11.1% YoY) and PE Pipes’ (-29.4% YoY) demand was impacted due to weak offtake in a deflationary polymer price environment as buyers postponed purchases. On the positive side, Food processing business reported robust growth, with Onion dehydration growing 58.3% YoY and Fruit Processing growing 24.6% YoY.
1. 11 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Agri
Jain Irrigation
Atul Mehra (Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Niket Shah (Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
CMP: INR66 TP: INR100 (+51%) Buy28,534 8,627
Bloomberg JI IN
Equity Shares (m) 443.1
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 29.3/0.5
52-Week Range (INR) 133/56
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -4/-44/-35
Avg Val,INRm/Vol ‘000 409/4,526
Free float (%) 71.3
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales 59.8 70.7 83.8
EBITDA 7.7 9.3 11.1
Adj PAT 0.5 2.0 3.7
EPS (INR) 1.0 4.3 8.1
Gr (%) -29.5 325.0 87.0
BV/Sh.INR 46.5 49.9 56.8
RoE (%) 2.2 9.0 15.2
RoCE (%) 8.6 11.4 14.2
P/E (x) 64.9 15.3 8.2
P/BV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2
Estimate change
29%
TP change
17%
Rating change
Worst is behind; expect recovery in FY16
n Results below estimates led by weak farm incomes, polymer price decline: JI
reported a revenue of INR12.9b (est. INR14.4b), YoY de-growth of 6%. While
growth in Micro Irrigation (MIS) (-10.5% YoY) was weak due to lower farm
incomes (impacted by untimely rains and drought in Maharashtra and lower agri
commodity prices), PVC Pipes (-11.1% YoY) and PE Pipes’ (-29.4% YoY) demand
was impacted due to weak offtake in a deflationary polymer price environment as
buyers postponed purchases. On the positive side, Food processing business
reported robust growth, with Onion dehydration growing 58.3% YoY and Fruit
Processing growing 24.6% YoY.
n Margins impacted by inventory write-down, PAT lower due to forex loss:
EBITDA stood at INR1.49b (est. INR1.73b) in 3QFY15, with EBITDA margin at
11.5% (est. 12%). Margin was impacted due to an inventory loss of INR180m
(1.4% of revenue) due to lower PVC prices, adjusted for which margin expanded
50bp YoY. Reported PAT for the quarter stood at -INR396m (est.
-INR198m), against INR259m in 3QFY14, impacted by forex loss (INR458m) due to
MTM impact of INR depreciation on forex loans.
n MIS working capital improvement on track: Gross receivable days in MIS
business declined by 14 days QoQ (from 211 in 2QFY15 to 197 days in 3QFY15).
Management maintained its guidance of 180 receivable days for FY15 and 120 for
FY16 along with a debt reduction of INR3b for 4QFY15.
n Valuation and view: We expect strong free cash generation over FY15-17E led by
domestic MIS business, which should aid to reduce the debt-equity from 1.8x in
FY15 to 1.3x in FY17E. We cut the earnings estimates for FY16E/17E by 43%/29%
respectively to reflect the lower-than-expected growth and margins. We expect
growth and margins to recover in FY16 on the back of a normal monsoon and
lower polymer prices. We maintain Buy, with a TP of INR100 (12x FY17E EPS).
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
2. 11 February 2015 2
Jain Irrigation
Results below estimates
n JI reported overall revenue of INR12.9b (est INR14.4b) as against INR13.8b in
3QFY14 marking a YoY de-growth of 6%.
n Growth was lower than expected due to lower growth in MIS business in
Maharashtra, impacted by untimely rains and drought.
n Similarly, deflationary polymer price environment impacted growth in PVC and
PE Pipes business as buyers postponed purchases.
n EBITDA stood at INR1.49b (Est INR1.73b) in 3QFY15 with EBITDA margins at
11.5% (Est 12.0%).
n Interest costs increased by 2.6% YoY and stood at INR1,205m in 3QFY15 as
against INR1,174m in 3QFY14.
n Forex loss for the quarter stood at INR458m.
n Consequently, PAT for the quarter stood at INR-396m (Est INR-198m) as against
INR259m in 3QFY14.
n Management expects FY16 to be a better year on expectation of a normal
monsoon and lower probability of El Nino affecting rains.
n Similarly, margins are expected to improve in FY16 due to lower polymer prices.
Exhibit 1: Consolidated revenue trend (INR m)
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 2: EBITDA trend (INR m)
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3: PAT trend (INR m)
Source: Company, MOSL
14,094 12,171 13,746 18,333 15,534 12,702
12,919
11.5
22.3
26.6
9.0 10.2
4.4
-6.0
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
Consolidated Revenue (INR m) Growth (YoY) %
2,086 1,523 1,710 2,562 2,006 1,572 1,492
14.8
12.5 12.4
14.0 12.9 12.4 11.5
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
EBITDA Margins (%)
-603 -807
259
753
203
-235
-396
0.0
-93.7
1.5
-1.5 NM NM NM
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
PAT Growth (%)
3. 11 February 2015 3
Jain Irrigation
MIS growth negative due to weak farm incomes
n MIS business de-grew by 10.5% to INR3.6b. While export business de-grew 26%
YoY, domestic business reported weak growth of -8%.
n Domestic MIS business was impacted due to muted demand on account of
untimely rains in Maharashtra and pressure on agri commodity prices.
n States like Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and North & North East posted
positive growth during the quarter.
n Management highlighted that despite extremely weak rural sentiments,
domestic MIS growth for 3QFY15 was steady due to better marketing efforts.
n Maharashtra government is expected to announce time-bound schedules for
mandatory sugarcane drip irrigation implementation. Management expects
sugarcane to be INR80-90b opportunity which can drive long term growth.
n MIS volume declined by ~3-4%.
n JI has an outstanding order book of INR1.2b in MIS export business.
Exhibit 4: MIS business growth by segment MIS business contribution by segment
Segment 3QFY14 3QFY15 YoY Segment 3QFY14 3QFY15 YoY
Retail 2,621 2,527 -4% Retail 64% 69% 5%
Project 894 707 -21% Project 22% 19% -3%
Export 559 414 -26% Export 14% 11% -3%
Total 4,074 3,648 -10% Total 100% 100% 0%
Source: Company, MOSL
Most of government subsidy receivables have been recovered
n Government subsidy receivables have been reduced from INR9.7b in FY12 to
INR2.7b in 2QFY15. This has been led shift in favor of business to more
progressive states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan.
n Management believes government subsidy receivables will further decline to
less than INR2.0b in FY15. This is despite higher growth for the MIS business.
Exhibit 5: Break-up of MIS receivables (INR b)
MIS -Receivables FY12 FY13 FY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Dealer 2.5 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.5
Institutional 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3
Project 3.1 2.4 3.4 4.0 4.4 3.4
Govt. Subsidy 9.7 7.1 3.9 3.4 2.6 2.7
Export 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7
Total 17.7 12.7 11.9 11.5 10.5 9.6
Source: Company, MOSL
4. 11 February 2015 4
Jain Irrigation
MIS working capital improvement on right trajectory
n MIS net working capital improved by 61 days YoY from 306 days in 3QFY14 to
245 days in 3QFY15.
n MIS Debtors days showed a significant improvement of 68 days from 265 days in
3QFY14 to 197 days in 3QFY15.
n Inventory days improved by 12 days YoY to 101 days in 3QFY15.
Exhibit 6: MIS revenue trend
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 7: MIS networking capital reducing
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 8: MIS debtors decreased by 68 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 9: MIS inventory days reduced by 12 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
Polymer price deflation drives de-growth in PVC and PE piping businesses
n PVC piping business de-grew by 11.1% YoY from INR1.97b in 3QFY14 to
INR1.75b in 3QFY15.
n PE piping business de-grew by 29.4% to INR1b in 3QFY15.
n Demand was impacted as deflationary polymer price environment resulted in
buyers to postpone purchases.
n Inventory days in piping business improved by 14 days YoY to 40 days.
n Debtor days in piping business increased by 22 days YoY to days.
n Consequently Net working capital days in piping business reduced by 24 days to
-31 days.
n De-growth in PE piping business in 3QFY15 is expected to recover led by major
infrastructure related orders expected in 4Q.
n Similarly, as crude oil and polymer prices have now stabilized, demand revival is
expected in the PVC pipes business as well.
3,855 2,933 4,074 6,225 4,248 3,801
3,647
16.5 17.2
25.7 24.8
10.2
29.6
-10.5
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
MIS revenue (INR M) Growth (YoY %)
296
317 306
255
235
255 245
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Net Working Capital
308
279 265 257 243
211 197
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Debtor days (Gross) 116
113 113
98
103 102 101
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Inventory days
5. 11 February 2015 5
Jain Irrigation
Exhibit 10: PVC Piping revenue trend
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 11: Piping net working capital days negative
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 12: Piping inventory days down 14 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 13: Piping receivable days up by 22 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 14: PE piping revenues trend (INR m)
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 15: PVC Sheets revenues trend (INR m)
Source: Company, MOSL
3,247 1,089 1,976 2,440
2,578
1,323 1,757
36.5
1.6 3.0
-8.3
-20.6
21.5
-11.1
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
PVC Pipes Revenue (INR m) Growth (YoY %)
-11
-16
-7 -8
-20
-11
-31
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Net Working Capital
58 60
54
35 37 37 40
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Inventory days
67
58
39
51
44
49
61
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Debtor days (Gross)
752 1,688 1,479 1,259 696
753
1,044
-3.3
197.7
95.9
22.8
-7.5 -55.4
-29.4
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
PE Piping Revenue Growth (YoY %)
342 539 604 676 407
377
367
-17
65
22
117
19.1
-30.0
-39.2
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
PVC Sheets revenue Rev. YoY
6. 11 February 2015 6
Jain Irrigation
Food processing business delivered strong growth
n Food processing business delivered strong performance with onion dehydration
revenue growing by 58.3% YoY to INR272m; while fruit processing business
growing by 24.6% YoY to INR1.2b.
n Food processing inventory days declined by 40 days YoY to 246 days. However
Debtor days were up by 50 days to 98 days, which as per management is a
temporary phenomenon.
n Net working capital saw a slippage of 91 days YoY to 226 days.
Exhibit 16: Dehydrated Onions growth trend
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 17: Fruit processing growth trend
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 18: FP inventory days down 40 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 19: FP receivable days up 50 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 20: FP net working capital days increased by 91 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
495 439
172
920 652 616 272
74.9
8.9
-29.5
19.3
31.7 40.4
58.3
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
Onion Dehydration revenue (INR m) Rev. YoY
881 913 963 1,946 1300
802
1,200
-16.3
50.7 49.1
39.6 47.6
-12.2
24.6
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
Fruit Processing revenue (INR m) Rev. YoY
345
315
286
190
264 276
246
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Inventory days
66 66
48
88 87
102 98
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Debtor days (Gross)
162 155
135
78
176
195
226
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Net Working Capital
7. 11 February 2015 7
Jain Irrigation
Net working capital on consolidated basis improved by 7 days
n On a consolidated (C/L) basis net working capital reduced from 161 days to 154
days in 3QFY15 (158 days in 2QFY15).
Exhibit 21: C/L inventory days declined by 2 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 22: C/L receivable days declined by 23 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 23: C/L net working capital days declined by 7 days YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
137 135
126
104
119 121 124
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Inventory days
137 141
123 129 122 115
106
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Debtor days (Gross)
162
174
161
142 145
158 154
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Net Working Capital
8. 11 February 2015 8
Jain Irrigation
Consolidated debt to reduce by INR3b annually
n Consolidated Net debt for 3QFY15 stood at INR42.9b as against INR42.4b in
2QFY15, marking an increase of INR0.5b on a QoQ basis.
n On a YoY basis debt increased by INR0.9b from INR42b to INR42.9.
n Management is targeting to reduce debt by atleast INR3b annually over FY15-
17. Annual capex is expected to be contained at INR2b.
n SAFL has an outstanding loan book of INR1.35b and NPAs are expected to be
less than 1%. However, growth in new disbursements during the quarter was
not strong due to weak sentiments.
Exhibit 24: Standalone net debt
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 25: Consolidated net debt
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 26: Debt Equity to decline from 1.8x in FY15 to 1.3x in FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
29.9
30.8
31.1
28.2
29.4
31.6 31.7
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Standalone Net Debt (INR b)
40.1
41.9 42
38.9
39.8
42.4
42.9
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Consolidated Net Debt (INR b)
34,442
35,654
38,601 38,442
35,420
32,865
2.0
1.6
1.8 1.8 1.5
1.3
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Net Debt (INR m) Net DER (x)
9. 11 February 2015 9
Jain Irrigation
Valuation and view
We value JI at a multiple of 12x FY17E EPS, (discount to long term average multiple
of 20x), which we believe is justified considering:
n India’s largest MIS player with a dominant market share of 55%
JI is the largest player in India's organized micro irrigation sector, with a dominant
market share of 55% and much higher than the second largest player Netafim (20%
market share). There remains immense potential for micro irrigation in India as out
of total irrigation potential of ~140 Mha and MIS potential of ~69.5 Mha, only 5 Mha
(~3.5% of the total irrigation potential) is covered under MIS currently, implying
significant growth potential over the long term. JI with its dominant market
leadership is best placed to capture this growth potential.
n Change in business model to drive de-leveraging
JI has changed its business model to ensure that the company is not exposed to
payment delays associated with subsidy receivables. Management is targeting to
reduce gross receivable days to 180 in FY15 and 120 in FY16 which should ensure
annual debt reduction of INR3b purely due to better working capital management.
Additionally, the company is looking to raise INR5b in FY16 from 25% stake sale in its
food processing business, proceeds of which would go towards further debt
retirement. We have not factored this scenario in our forecasts, which can
potentially reduce debt by another INR5b in FY16. We expect strong free cash
generation, which should reduce debt-equity from 1.8x to 1.3x over FY15-17E.
n Strong leadership in the high-growth food processing business
JI is India’s largest player in the food processing sector, with a market share of ~30%
and is the third largest in the world. Only 2% of India’s total produce is processed,
compared to ~60-80% in some developed countries (80% US and Malaysia). Also,
India's share in the global food trade is a miniscule 1.5%. Given the growing demand
for processed food, due to lifestyle changes and storage advantages, the segment is
expected to be a strong growth driver for the company.
Exhibit 27: 15-year PE band
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 28: 15-year PB band
Source: Company, MOSL
We value the stock at 12x FY17E EPS and arrive at a target price of INR100 – 51%
upside. Maintain Buy rating.
10. 11 February 2015 10
Jain Irrigation
Story in charts
Exhibit 29: JI is the market leader in MIS business in India
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 30: MIS penetration in India is lowest in world
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 31: Gross debtors set to decline
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 32: Hence, debt to equity to decline from 1.8x to 1.3x
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 33: Food processing is another key opportunity for JI
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 34: RoE to improve
Source: Company, MOSL
55%
20%
25%
Jain Irrigation Netafim Others
Market share of key players in micro irrigation systems in India 90%
78%
65%
55% 52%
10%
3%
Israel Russia Spain US Brazil China India
MIS penetration across countries (%)
255
316
369
343 329
257
180
150 130
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Gross Sundry Debtors
34,442
35,654
38,601 38,442
35,420
32,865
2.0
1.6
1.8 1.8 1.5
1.3
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Net Debt (INR m) Net DER (x)
80% 80%
70%
30%
2%
USA Malaysia France Thailand India
% of food processing
13.5
2.4 3.1
2.2
9.0
15.2
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
RoE (%)
14. 11 February 2015 14
Jain Irrigation
Corporate profile: Jain Irrigation
Exhibit 37: Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13
Promoter 28.7 28.7 27.5
DII 2.7 3.3 1.6
FII 44.9 48.0 53.0
Others 23.7 20.1 18.0
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 38: Top holders
Holder Name % Holding
MKCP Institutional Investor (Mauritius) II Ltd 7.9
International Finance Corporation 3.0
Templeton Funds -Templeton Foreign Fund 2.5
Macquarie Bank Ltd 2.3
Shivanand Shankar Mankekar 1.9
Exhibit 39: Top management
Name Designation
Bhavarlal H Jain Chairman
Ashok B Jain Vice Chairman
Anil B Jain Managing Director
Ajit B jain Joint Managing Director
Atul Bhavarlal Jain Joint Managing Director
Exhibit 40: Directors
Name Name
Bhavarlal H Jain Vasant V Warty*
Ashok B Jain Ghanshyam Dass*
Anil B Jain Arun Kumar Jain*
Ajit B jain Radhika C Pereira*
Atul Bhavarlal Jain R Swaminathan
D R Mehta* H P Singh
*Independent
Exhibit 41: Auditors
Name Type
Haribhakti & Co Statutory
Ernst & Young Internal
Exhibit 42: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
MOSL
forecast
Consensus
forecast
Variation
(%)
FY15 1.0 3.0 -65.6
FY16 4.3 8.3 -48.1
FY17 8.1 9.6 -15.5
Company description
Established in 1986, JI is a transnational
organization headquartered at Jalgaon,
Maharashtra, India. JI employs over 5,000
associates and manufactures a number of
products, including drip and sprinkler irrigation
systems, PVC & PE piping systems, plastic sheets,
green houses, bio-fertilizers, solar products
including water-heating systems, photovoltaic
appliances and solar pumps. JI processes fruits and
vegetables into aseptic concentrates, frozen fruits
and dehydrated vegetables, respectively. It has 21
manufacturing plants spread over 5 continents and
its products are supplied to 110 countries through
3,000 dealers and distributors worldwide.
Exhibit 36: Sensex rebased
16. 11 February 2015 16
Jain Irrigation
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