Traditionally our technology has spoken for us, but these days the products have become so sophisticated that the technology is becoming imperceptible. With that step; our roles in them, the careers they present and the business opportunities all diminish. Out of sight is out of mind; and out of mind is de-prioritised.
1. 1
Title: Letting our Achievements Speak for Us
Abstract:
The Danger of - Letting our Achievements Speak for Us
Not for us the muddy puddle, the drafty damp hut, the hungry cold night. By exploiting the discoveries of our
forefathers, our 21c world is full of wonderful things; I think we should all be happy as kings! Yet we are not.
It is human nature to 'accept the background' as a given, and to complain about its limitations. So whilst our
value should be recognised for our part in providing this wonderful environment, it is not. To the
man/woman in the street, our achievements are miracles on a par with the miracle of life itself; pervasive
and free. So as our products become more sophisticated and the technologies they depend on less visible; our
roles in creating them become ever less valued, to the point where they have no value. Investment in them
will fail, people will not chose them as careers, people will not be taught of them, advances will not be made
in them ... and a return to an earlier, simpler life is inevitable. Whilst you don't need to know how grass
grows, to grow grass; you can't make a smart-phone without knowledge. Technology has stopped speaking
to the people, so it cannot speak for us. It is becoming a societal imperative, that we (scientists and
engineers) develop our own public voice.
Context
1hr Seminar at The School of Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Computer Science, University of Liverpool, UK. 7mar13
EEE&CS has a regular seminar series inviting national and international speakers.
http://www.liv.ac.uk/electrical-engineering-electronics-and-computer-science/
Pdf and Tube available at http://ianp24.blogspot.co.uk/
2. 2
Prof. Ian Phillips
Principal Staff Eng’r,
ARM Ltd
ian.phillips@arm.com
Visiting Prof. at ...
Contribution to Industry
Award 2008
EEE&CS Seminar
Uo.Liverpool
07mar13
1v1
Pdf and Tube available at http://ianp24.blogspot.co.uk/
3. 3
Our 21c World ...
Statistics ...
Population ~7,000,000,000
Growth rate ~2%pa
Life expectancy 60-80yr
... Mission: Celebrity, Leisure
4. 4
Electronic Systems are Everywhere ...
Entertainment, Amusement, Social ...
Important but not Vital
Very Personal; so greatly valued
5. 5
Electronic Systems are Everywhere ...
Security, Transport, Logistics, Financial, Energy, Trade,
Communications, Health, Environment, Business ...
Vital: Personally, Environmentally and Economically
Largely Invisible; so are seldom personally valued!
6. 6
Source: Adapted from Morgan Stanley, Nov 2009
Electronic Systems Will Create Our Future
As we and our Economies, will be so Dependent On
Them, then nationally we Need to ...
Better Understand - Where they come from
Better Understand - Our various roles within them
Better Understand - Our Businesses Involvement in them
Minimise - Our Exposure to their Globalisation!
7. 7
Do Our Achievements Speak For Us ?
... Science + Engineering made the world we live in: Yet ...
... most people don’t see it, and have no idea what “we” do in it!
8. 9
The Science That Lets Us to Do ...
Electronics is the pinnacle of
mankind’s ingenuity in the
manipulation of matter ...
Enables us all to do such
wonderful things!
Dependent on Mathematics,
Physics and Chemistry
The measure of what humans
can achieve by reusing the
ingenuity of our predecessors ...
“Standing on the shoulders of
giants” (Isaac Newton)
Though it is very-very clever ...
It is not actually Magic!
It is not nearly as Magical as the
Nature that surrounds us! “Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from Magic!” (A.C.Clarke)
9. 10
The Threshold of Magic 1: Clarke: Any sufficiently
advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic.
Everybody has a threshold, beyond which observed Functionality is
Indistinguishable From Magic1
!
Chemical Systems
Biological Systems
Economic Systems
Electronic Systems
The Incandescent Light:
is the
for most non-scientific,
but well-educated people!
... We will ALL lose if we fail to
explain the difference between
Magic and Science to the Public!
... Our roles will not be recognised or valued;
Teaching and Research will go; Tech. Jobs will follow.
... And Our Society will become dependent on Others.
10. 11
On the Shoulders of Giants...
What we do is laborious and precise ...
Involves Large Teams Working Together
Involves International Cooperation
Is built-on many generations of global
Scientists, Physicists, Mathematicians,
Chemists and Engineers that precede us.
Is enabled by Globalisation ...
Global ICT and The Internet
Standardisation of Tools and Methods
International Contract Law
Containerisation
English as a Lingua-Franca
... And advances at an ever accelerating pace!
11. 12
Life Before Science
Cro-Magnon Man (Us!) – 35,000 yr ago
‘Developed’ out of Homo-Sapien (Wise Human) >100,000 yr
Mission: Survive Nature (1,000 generations)
The Philosophers – 2,500-1,000 yr ago
Pythagoras, Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Archimedes, ...
Mission: Understanding Nature
The Scientists – 1,000-500 yrs ago
Galileo, Descartes, (1000 ad)
Electricity - William Gilbert (1600ad)
Mission: Manipulation of Nature
The Engineers – 260 yrs ago
Industrial Revolution (1750: 8 gen’n)
Mission: Exploitation of Nature
Year 0: Science Meets Exploitation
... Economic (and Population) Explosion
Universe – 13.6Byr
Earth – 4.5Byr
Thomas Telford’s Iron Bridge (1778), Ironbridge, UK
12. 13
32,000 Years to get To This...
World Stats
WW Pop’n ~100K ->1M
Growth rate ~0.1%pa
Life expectancy 30-40yr
... Mission: Survive and Grow
Technology ...
Low dry-stone walls
Wooden poles and sticks
Thatch, turf, plants, mud and hide
Timber split using wedges
Sharp stones for cutting
... Strategy for next 3,500yrs: “If it was good enough for my
father’s, father’s, father’s, ... father; its good enough for me!”
13. 14
The Industrial Revolution (c1750)
Exploitation of Nature
Unleashing the Power of Science, by delivering it in ways that satisfied a
Volume Need ... We now call this Business.
Created Personal Money and the Consumer
It began in the United Kingdom, then spread throughout Europe, North
America, and eventually the world.
Most noticeable changes were in agriculture, manufacturing, mining,
transportation, and technology
Mechanisation of the textile industries,
Development of iron-making techniques
Transportation expansion through canals, improved roads and railways.[5]
Steam power, water wheels and powered machinery
Profound impact on socio-economic and cultural conditions
... For the first time in human history (35kyr), the living standards of
the masses of ordinary people underwent sustained growth
14. 15
Exploitation of the Atom (c1940)
Electronic Technology is ...
...The Most Exciting thing mankind has Ever created!
... And it has all happened within the span of one life-time!
Early Electronics The First Transistor (1947) Integrated Transistor
~70 yrs
15. 16
Gordon Moore: c1965
“Moore's Law” was coined by Carver Mead in 1970, from Gordon
Moore's article in Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965 "Cramming
more components onto integrated circuits“.
“The complexity for minimum
component costs has increased at a rate
of roughly a factor of two per year ...
Certainly over the short term this rate can be
expected to continue, if not to increase. Over
the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit
more uncertain, although there is no reason to
believe it will not remain nearly constant for at
least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number
of components per integrated circuit for
minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such
a large circuit can be built on a single wafer”
In 1965 he was designing ICs with ~50 transistors!
Moore’s Law has held for ~50 years ... Taking us to 100B transistor ICs
Gordon Moore, Founder of Intel
17. 18
The Transistor Today...
Asen Assenov
a.asenov@elec.gla.ac.uk
Modelled ‘views’ of a 30 x 30 nm transistor
3,000 transistors sit side-by-side
in the thickness of a bank-note!
A Few Hundred Billion on a chip!
2x that in 18 months time !!!1Mbyte
Atoms!
20. 21
The Productivity Revolution (1990)
Reuse Of Everything
Makes Incremental design possible
Supports Design Partitioning and Bigger Design Teams
Allows High-Level Abstraction Languages and Synthesis Tools
Encourages Methodology, Procedure and Quality
Compute Engines
Enables greater use of Memory (Easy to compile)
Enables larger family of complex (on-chip) circuit blocks
Enables Reuse of blocks of Software Code
Enables bigger Design Teams to be focussed
Today >95% of Design is Reused from Previous Product
Hardware, Software, System, RF, Analogue, Displays, Keyboards, etc
Even 5% of new design (1B gates => 5M gates) is a big job for a large team.
21. 22
Computer: A Machine for Computing ...
Computing ...
... A general term for algebraic manipulation of data ...
... State and Time are normally factors in this.
It can include phenomena ranging from human thinking to calculations
with a narrower meaning. Wikipedia
Usually used it to exercise analogies (models) of real-world situations;
Frequently in real-time.
... So What is the Difference between SW and HW ?
y=F(x,t,s)
Numerated
Phenomena
IN (x)
Processed Data/
Information
OUT (y)
22. 23
Antikythera c87BC ... Planet Motion Computer
See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1CuR29OajI
Mechanical
Technology
• Inventor: Hipparchos (c.190 BC – c.120 BC).
Ancient Greek Astronomer, Philosopher and Mathematician.
• Single-Task, Continuous Time, Analogue Mechanical Computing (With backlash!)
23. 24
Orrery c1700 ... Planet Motion Computer
• Inventor: George Graham (1674-1751). English Clock-Maker.
• Single-Task, Continuous Time, Analogue Mechanical Computing (With backlash!)
Mechanical
Technology
24. 25
Babbage's Difference Engine 1837
The difference engine consists of a number of columns, numbered from 1 to N. Each column is able to store one decimal number. The only operation the engine
can do is add the value of a column n + 1 to column n to produce the new value of n. Column N can only store a constant, column 1 displays (and possibly prints)
the value of the calculation on the current iteration.
Computer for Calculating Tables: A Basic ALU Engine
(Re)construction
c2000
Mechanical
Technology
32. 33
Evolution of Radio
Bush Radio
7 Transistors
1 Diode
c1960
Evoke DAB Radio
100 M Transistors
2-3 Embedded Processors
c2005
BTH
Crystal Set
1 Diode
c1925
Tele-Verta Radio
4 Valves
1 Rectifier Valve
c1945
Ian’s ‘Span’
34. 35
Pinnacle of Computing is
There is only Input/Output
And Processing.
HW, SW, Analogue, Mech.IL, etc
are just ‘age’-related
Architectural Decisions
37. 38
It is Cool Inside Too!
iPhone 4's vibrator motor. rear-facing 5 MP camera with
720p video at 30 FPS, tap to
focus feature, and LED flash.
http://www.ifixit.com
Down 1-Level: Modules
... Stuff that doesn’t grow on trees! (ie: It also has to be Created)
38. 39
And Cool Design Inside the Modules...
http://www.ifixit.com
The Control Board.
Down 1-Level:
Modules
39. 40
Inside The Control Board (a-side)
http://www.ifixit.com
Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies
Visible Design-Team Members ...
Samsung (flash memory) - (ARM Partner)
Cirrus Logic (audio codec) - (ARM Partner)
AKM (Magnetic Sensor)
Texas Instruments (Touch Screen Controller and mobile DDR) - (ARM Partner)
Invisible Design-Team Members ...
Software Tools, OS & Drivers, GSM Security; Graphics, Video and Sound ...
Manufacturing, Assembly, Test, Certification ...
40. 41
Inside The Control Board (b-side)
GPS
Bluetooth,
EDR &FM
http://www.ifixit.com
Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies
Visible Design-Team Members...
A4 Processor, specified by Apple, designed and manufactured by Samsung ...
The central unit that provides the iPhone 4 with its GP computing power.
Reported to contain ARM A8 600 MHz CPU (other ARM CPUs and IP)
ST-Micro (3 axis gyroscope) - (ARM Partner)
Broadcom (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS) - (ARM Partner)
Skyworks (GSM)
Triquint (GSM PA)
Infineon (GSM Transceiver) - (ARM Partner)
41. 42
Inside the A4 SIP Package (Cross-section)
Down 3-Levels: IC Packaging
The processor is the centre rectangle. The silver circles beneath it are solder balls.
Two rectangles above are RAM die, offset to make room for the wirebonds.
Putting the RAM close to the processor reduces latency, making RAM faster and cuts power.
Unknown Mfr (Memory)
Samsung (Processor)
Unknown (System-In-Package Technology)
http://www.ifixit.com
Processor SOC Die
2 Memory Dies
Glue
Memory
‘Package’
4-Layer Platform
Package’
42. 43
A lot of Cool Stuff in a Smart Phone ...
... And none of it Grows on Trees!
43. 44
Lots of Designers/Manufacturers Globally ...
159 Tier-1 Suppliers ...
Thousands of Design Engineers
10’s of thousands of Engineers
Globally !
... Hundreds more Tier-2
suppliers (Including ARM)
44. 45
How Much Reuse ?
Mobile Products have ~500m gate SoCs / ~500m lines of code
~Doubling every 18mth
Designer Productivity: is just 100-1000 Gates(Lines)/day
That is tested, verified, incorporated gates/lines
That is 2,500-25,000 p.yrs to design from scratch! (Un-Resourceable)
‘Typical Designs’ have just 50-100 p.yr available resource ...
That’s just ~0.5% New (>99% Reuse!)
Not Viable to do a clean-sheet product design (Nor has been since ~1995)
The core HW/SW is only a part of a Product
There’s all of the other Components and Sub-Systems
There’s the IO systems (RF, Audio, Optical, Geo-spatial, Temporal)
There’s the Mechanical
There’s the Reproduction (Factory)
There's the Business Model (Cash-flow, Distribution, Legal)
There’s the Support (Repair, Installation, Maintenance, Replacement)
45. 46
Consolidate and Move-On!
Methods and Tools (all Disciplines) underpin this ...
Reuse of Modules and Components
Reuse of Existing Software Code and Circuits
Sharing Methodology
Sharing Architecture
Creating Tools to Accelerate Methodology and Repeatability
Design For “x” (DFx) is Design For up-stream Deployment
Includes DFR (Design For Reuse)
A significant part is (and will remain) Knowledge based ...
The Designer has done similar work before
The Team has Collective experience
The Company has experience and a customer base
The Role of the Design Engineer is to ...
Create Order out of Chaos using Knowledge
Identify and Apply Appropriate Knowledge, to create a Viable Product
46. 47
Technologies Enable Many Products
Transport
Energy
Entertainment
Health
Security
Communications
Tools
Robotics
Micro-Electronics
Software
Optics (etc etc)
Science ≠ Technology ≠ Product
Technologies are Sciences which
are ready for deployment in a
“Critical Product” situation.
47. 48
But a Product is More than Technology
21c Businesses are (better be)
Selling ‘Stuff’ that People want; at a Price they can Afford
With Business Models that are (sufficiently) Cash +ve
Business needs
End-Customers buy Functionality (not Technology)
Competition is Global (2nd
is for Losers)
New Products are
Design is a Cost/Risk to be Minimised
(New) Technology ...
Just Enables Product Options (Not all are good)
Can Increases Cost/Risk, more than the Return!
Competition, Suppliers (tech. and products) and Investors are global
But so are the Opportunities ...
... Business (and You) must embrace Global Opportunities to be succeed!
48. 49
Electronic Age:
1975-2005
Electronic System
Age:
2003-2030
A Set of Accessible Technologies to maintain marketable
Functional Growth Rate, ‘Within The Box’.
Preceded by Wood Age ⇒ Stone Age ⇒ Bronze Age ⇒ Iron Age ...
Dawn of the Electronic Systems Age ...
FunctionalDensity(units)
1960 1980 2000 2020
102
1010
106
1012
100
49. 50
So What Does ARM Do?
ARM designs “processor technology” that lies at
the heart
of advanced consumer products
http://www.arm.com/
52. 53
Today, users require a pocket ‘Super-Computer’ ...
Silicon Technology Provides a few-Billion transistors ...
ARM’s Technology makes it Practical to utilise them ...
More and More Complex System Chips
• 10 Processors
• 4 x A9 (A15*) Processors (2x2):
• 4 x MALI 400 (800*) Frag. Proc
• 1 x MALI 400 (800*) Vertex Proc
• 1 x MALI Video CoDec
• Software Stacks, OS’s and Design
Tools/
• ARM Technology gives
chip/system designers ...
• Improved Productivity
• Improved TTM
• Improved Quality/Certainty
http://www.arm.com/
* Already advancing to the next family !
53. 54
The Chip is the Core of the System
ARM Technology drives efficient
Electronic System solutions:
Software increasing system efficiency
with optimized software solutions
Diverse components, including CPU
and GPU processors designed for
specific tasks
Interconnect System IP delivering
coherency and the quality of service
required for lowest memory bandwidth
Physical IP for a highly optimized
processor implementation
Backed by >900 Global Partners ...
>800 Licences
Millions of Developers
http://www.arm.com/
54. 55
ARM – Architecture for the Digital World
1998 2012 2020
40+billion
chips to date
150+billion
chips cumulative
in 2020
http://www.arm.com/
55. 56
1990 - "A barn in Cambridge"
12 engineers, in Cambridge
No Revenue, No Patents
Cash from Apple & VLSI
Spin-out of Acorn UK ...
BBC Computers in Schools (1981)
Roots in Uo.Cambridge (c1975)
... A Dream to become the Global
Standard for Embedded CPUs
2013 - "The worlds leading IP Product"
Powering >90% of the Smart Electronic Systems in the world
75% of all the devices connected to the Internet
8.7B CPUs shipped (2012): +20%pa, 40B total (>50x all PCs!)
FTSE 100 (MarCap £12.8B): Revenue ~£580M, PBT ~47%, R&D ~30% (2012)
Cambridge HQ: 25 offices/labs and 2,400 people ww (990 in the UK)
>95% revenue is foreign earnings
The World’s Favourite IP Provider
http://www.arm.com/
56. 57
Innovation & Efficiency Underpins It All
ARM’s 21c Role is to make the
Creation of High-Performance,
Electronic Systems as
Productive, Economical and Reliable
as possible ...
Through Reuse and Hw/Sw Methodology
around a family of CPU cores
57. 58
Intuitive and Natural User Interfaces
More pixels, greater fidelity
Leading Innovation in Computing Devices
Continued Innovation on Energy Efficiency
Protection of your Data
Always on, Always Connected
Delivered through a single Architecture and a broad partnership
Mobile Device Trends
58. 59
Societies Challenges in the 21c
Urbanisation (Smart Cities)
Health (eHealth)
Transport
Energy (Smart Grid)
Security
Environment
will not ‘fix’ any
of these Challenges in themselves, but
their Technology will Enable all of them!
... Technologies are
Key Enabling Technologies (KETs)
Food/Water
Ageing Society
Sustainability
Digital Inclusion
Economics
59. 60
Conclusions
are a growing feature our lives today;
and they will underpin society and our economy tomorrow.
It is important that we maintain our presence in their global life-cycles and do not
become overly dependent on the beneficence of others.
Technology is Magical, but it is not Magic
Whilst we may be ‘clever’, we are not Magicians.
Advances are painstaking and precise, and ES Products emerge from the efforts of
Global Networks of Physical and Knowledge contributors.
The simplest life-forms are still way above any science or technology today.
It is important to Explain Ourselves to the Public
The Public need us to build and maintain their 21C, and its economy.
We need their support for the Education, Research and Finance; which will lead to
advances in the Science; and ultimately the creation of Businesses, Jobs and Careers.
is the Bridge between Us and the Public
Discipline Boundaries are administratively convenient, but counterproductive!
61. 62
Reading & References
Electronics 2015: Making a Visible Difference (Referred)
DTI EIGT Report, HMG URN 04/1812, 2004.
Engineering UK 2009 (and 2011): The state of engineering (Referred)
EngineeringUK (ex Engineering Council), 2009 and 2011.
The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (Disruptive Tech.)
by Clayton M. Christensen: HBS Press, 1997
Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology (Research in 21C)
by Henry William Chesbrough : HBS Press, 2003
The World Is Flat (Globalisation)
by Thomas L. Friedman: Penguin, 2005
Staying Power (Business)
by Michael Cusumano: Oxford, 2010
A Short History of Nearly Everything (A different view on what we know)
by Bill Bryson: Black Swan, 2003
The Voyages of the Beagle (Scientific Observation) – Free on-line
By Charles Darwin,1860
An Essay on the Principles of Population (Natural Competition) – Free on-line
By Thomas Malthus,1789