This document discusses international assessment of adaptation strategies for water, food, and the environment under climate change in seven river basins. It outlines the goal of downscaling climate change impacts at a regional level. It then briefly describes the seven river basins being studied, including their major issues. Next, it lists the collaborators and describes the methodology involving hydrological and food production models. It also summarizes expected climate changes in the basins and how these may impact crop yields and water resources. Adaptation strategies will be developed and evaluated based on these potential impacts.

1. International assessment of adaptation
Water, Food and Environment under Climate Change
Chu Thai Hoanh
International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

2. Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR)
16 Centers (Institutes)
Penang,
Malaysia
Nov-03

3. ADAPT
Water, Climate, Food and Environment under
Climate Change
in Seven River Basins
Nov-03

4. Adaptation in seven river basins
1. Goal
2. Basins & major issues
3. Collaborators
4. Methodologies
5. Climate changes
6. Adaptation strategies
7. Lessons learnt
Nov-03

5. Goal
Downscaling CC from global to regional level:
Develop & evaluate adaptation strategies for
river basins under climate change & climate
variability

6. Seven basins & major issues
Nov-03

7. ADAPT Basins
dry / wet areas & developed / developing regions
Rhine, EU Syr Darya, CA
185,000 km2, wet 400,000 km2, dry
Sacramento, US
70,000 km2, dry
Mekong, SEA
Zayandeh Ruh, Iran 800,000 km2, wet
42,000 km2, dry
Volta, WA Walawe, SL
400,000 km2, dry 2,400 km2, wet
Nov-03

8. Sacramento
Sacramento
Agriculture,
wetland & fisheries
Nov-03

9. Rhine
Flood control
Rhine
& urban + industry demand
Nov-03

10. Volta
Volta
Hydropower
Nov-03

11. Syr Darya
Syr Darya
Lowering of
Aral sea level
Nov-03

12. Zayandeh Ruh
Zayandeh Ruh
Agriculture vs
industry & urban demand
Nov-03

13. Walawe
Walawe
Agriculture
Nov-03

14. Mekong
Mekong
Agriculture
& flood control
Nov-03

15. Collaborators
1. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Netherlands
2. International Water Management institute (IMWI), Sri Lanka
3. International Food Policy Institute (IFPRI), USA
4. FAO, Italy
5. Institute of Infra-structural Hydrological & Environmental Engineering
(IHE), Netherlands
6. Institute for Geo-information and earth Observation (ITC),
Netherlands
7. Irrigation Department (ID), Sri Lanka
8. Mekong River Commission (MRC) Cambodia
9. Moscow State University (MSU), Russia
10. SEI-Boston, USA
11. Tarbiat Modarres University (TMU), Iran
12. Water Research Institute (WRI), Ghana
13. Wageningen University & Research (WUR), Netherlands
14. Center for Development Research (ZEF), Germany
http://www.geo.vu.nl/users/ivmadapt
Nov-03

16. ADAPT approach
Nov-03

17. Changes:
Current !Future
Nov-03

18. Socio-Economic
Socio
&
Climate Drivers
Derived from DPSIR approach
(Driving forces
Pressures
Pressures State
Impact
‘Issues & Problems’
Response)
Adaptation
strategies
‘State’ Changes
Stakeholders
Impacts
Impacts
Nov-03

19. Adaptation strategies to:
Enhance environmental quality Secure food production Enhance industrial capacity
Environment Environment
(Human) (ecosystems) Food Industry
Health security habitat waterquality Quantity Security Hydropower Transport
pcb people ha floodplain BOD Salmon Farm income Kw produced # days
at risk forest Yield Un-navigable
NaCl Fertilizer
Variation in
ha upstream
tons of Farm income
forest
River fish
% lateral
freedom
% longitudinal
freedom
Indicators
Nov-03

20. Drivers
Population growth
Climate change & variability
Current situation:
- CRU data (Climatic Research Unit,
University of East Anglia, UK)
- IPCC SRES data (Special Report on
Emission Scenarios).
- Observed data
Future situation:
SRES A2 and B2 storylines
2010-2039 & 2070-2099
Temperature & Precipitation
Nov-03

21. Climate vs Development?
Population: changes in mean
Climate change: changes in
extremes & frequency
Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers.
2000. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate
Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.
Nov-03

22. Climate change in seven basins
Nov-03

23. Syr Darya Climate 1961-90
Mean Annual Temperature (oC) Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)
HadCM3-A2: 2070-99 HadCM3-B2:
dTMP=5-6oC dTMP=4-5oC
xPRE=1.06 xPRE=1.28
Nov-03

24. Mekong precipitation
Precipitation
(mm/month)
600
500
400
A2
300
200
100
0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Precipitation
(mm/month)
600
500
400
B2 300
200
100
0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Nov-03

25. Mekong temperature
Mean temperature
(oC)
35
30
25
A2 20
15
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Mean temperature
(oC)
35
30
B2 25
20
15
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Nov-03

26. Volta climate - HadCM3 A2
34
32
1961- 2010- 2070-
Temperature (oC)
Period 1990 2039 2099 30
Temperature (oC) 27.3 28.5 31.8 28
Std (oC) 0.5 0.5 0.8
CV (%) 1.7 1.7 2.5 26
24
Precip. (mm y-1) 1079 1161 1147 CRU GCM 1961- 2010- 2070-
Std (mm y-1) 115 105 123 1990 2039 2099
CV (%) 10.7 9.0 10.7 2000
Precipitation (mm y-1)
1600
1200
800
400
CRU GCM 1961- 2010- 2070-
1990 2039 2099
Nov-03

27. Mekong
2500 B2
2000 CRU
1500 Extreme dry year
[mm]
1000
500 Extreme wet year
0
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Sacramento
2400
1800
CRU B2
Extreme dry year
[mm]
1200
600 Extreme wet year
0
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Walawe
3600
3000 CRU B2
Extreme dry year
2400
[mm]
1800
1200 Extreme wet year
600
0
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Nov-03

28. Extreme years of precipitation in the Rhine Basin
1400
1200
1000
[mm]
800
600
Extreme dry year
400
200
0 Extreme wet year
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Extreme years of precipitation in the Syr Darya Basin
700
600
500
[mm]
400
300 Extreme dry year
200
100 Extreme wet year
0
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Extreme years of precipitation in the Volta Basin
2000
1500 Extreme dry year
[mm]
1000
Extreme wet year
500
0
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Nov-03

29. Extreme years of precipitation in the Zayandeh Rud Basin
600
400
[mm]
Extreme dry year
200
0
Extreme wet year
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Nov-03

30. Changes in crop yield
& water resources
Nov-03

31. Changes in crop yield & water resources
Use models & expert knowledge
Hydrological models Food production models (dif. Scales)
Nov-03

32. SWAP model at field scale
Irrigation Precipitation
Transpiration
Evaporation Surface runoff
Unsaturated
zone
Transport:
- water
- heat
- solutes
Drainage/
Saturated subsurface
zone infiltration
Properties: Deep groundwater
- water retention
- hydraulic conductivity
Nov-03

33. Food production models
Yield Walawe / Sri Lanka
Nov-03

34. Yield BAU, HADCM3_A2
Zay_Wheat
Zay_Rice
Wal_Vege
Wal_Rice
Vol_Maize
Vol-Rice
Syr_Wheat
Syr_Cotton
Sac_Tomato
Sac_Rice
Rhi_Wheat
Rhi_SugB
Mek_Maize 2010-2039
2070-2099
Mek_Rice
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Changes in Yield (%)
Nov-03

35. Effective temperature for rice
30
temperature sum (oC)
Daily increase in
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Daily average temperature (oC)
Nov-03

36. Max, min & average temperature
Maximum
temperature (oC)
45
40
35
30
25
20
Minimum
temperature (oC)
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
30
Year
25
A2 20
15
10
Mean temperature
5 (oC)
35
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
30
25
20
15
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Nov-03

37. Food production – Syr Darya
Wheat Production 2070-99 (mln t)
6 A2: less water less food
5
4
A2
B2
3 Average Farm Income 2070-99 (USD/farm)
2
5000
1
0 4000
1961-90 NA E F I M
3000
A2
B2
2000
Cotton Production 2070-99 (mln t)
1000
3 0
1961-90 NA E F I M
A2
2
B2
1
B2: more water more food
0
1961-90 NA E F I M
Nov-03

38. Walawe - Impact on Food Security
60%
1961-1990
2010-2030
50%
2070-2099
40%
Low Yield Years
30%
20%
10%
0%
0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70
Threshold Value
Number of years with low yields, defined as a year where total rice
production is lower than the 5 years moving average considering a
Nov-03 defined Threshold Value.

39. Basin simulation models

40. SLURP model
Mekong river sub-basins
Area
Sub-basin
Raster 0.5 degree (km2)
Mun 60,912
Chi 55,985
Chi-Mun 4,175
Lancang 225,562
Nam Ou 30,708
Nam Ngum 8,886
Mekong 1 156,509
Mekong 2 20,558
Sekong 28,601
Srepok 48,318
Mekong 3 27,701
Tonlesap 86,594
China Delta 40,492
Total 795,000
Myanmar Vietnam
Lao
PDR
ThailandMEKONG
BASIN
Cambodia
Climate station
with long records
Nov-03

41. Changes in Mekong flow
Monthly Q - A2 - Mekong 3 Q (m3/s) Monthly Q - A2 - Delta
Q (m3/s)
70,000
70,000
60,000 60,000
50,000 50,000
40,000 40,000
30,000 30,000
20,000 20,000
10,000 10,000
0
0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month Month
Q (m3/s) Q (m3/s) Monthly Q - B2 - Delta
Monthly Q - B2 - Mekong 3 70,000
70,000
60,000 60,000
50,000 50,000
40,000 40,000
30,000 30,000
20,000 20,000
10,000 10,000
0 0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month Month
Nov-03

42. RHINEFLOW-2 model
Discharge Rhine Basin
Current vs A2 scenario
Current
2010-2039
2070-2099
Nov-03

43. Mekong - changes in water resources
Higher flood and more droughts in A2, 2010-39
Nov-03

44. Adaptation strategies
Nov-03

45. Four Adaptation Strategies
Environmental focused
Food focused
Industry/Energy Focused
Mix of the above
Nov-03

46. Measures Adaptation Strategies
‘E’: Environmental measures Mekong Rhine Volta
Field / Management/policy scale:
1. Side path Salmon Env. adaptation Env. adaptation Env. adaptation
2. Open reservoir in dry period strategy strategy strategy
3. Use less fertilizer
4. Develop sewage treatment plants 1 E3, E4, E5, E7 E3, E4, E6 E2, E4, E8
5. Develop dikes & protection
6. Construct flood regulation area F6 F7 F1
7. Regulate mangrove lodging
8. Protect wetlands (RAMSAR)
Food adaptation Food adaptation Food adaptation
strategy strategy strategy
2 E4 E6 E4
‘F’: Food security measures F2, F5, F9 F1, F2, F3, F5
F1, F2, F3, F5
Farmers/manager/policy scale:
1. Rainfed to irrigation ETC
2. Increase crop intensity Ind. adaptation Ind. adaptation Ind. adaptation
3. Salinity control strategy strategy strategy
4. Increase water storage capacity
5. Re-use waste water 3 F4 E6 F7
6. Desalinisation I1 I2 I3
7. Water pricing
8. Water rights
9. Insurance arrangements
Mixed adaptation Mixed adaptation Mixed adaptation
strategy strategy strategy
1.
‘I’:. Industrial measures
Built new reservoirs
4 E3, E4, E5 E4, E6 E2, E4
2. Develop sluice / barrages
F1, F2, F3 F2, F5 F1, F2
3. Sell Kw for Food I1 I2 I3
Nov-03

47. Scenarios for Mekong
No. Scenario Objective Agriculture Reforestation
development
1 Baseline Current trend Developed for Current
without CC food
2 CC-NoAgri Effects of CC Current Current
3 CC-Agri Effects of CC & Developed for Current
agriculture food
4 CC-AgriFor Effects of CC, Developed for Reforestation of
agriculture & food all shrub land
forestry (17.7%) by
mixed forest
Nov-03

48. Scenario CC-NoAgri: higher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
Monthly discharge (m3/s) % change Daily discharge (m3/s) % change
Sub-basin Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta
Max 61_90 40,995 45,681 54,829 51,161
Min 61_90 560 1,857
Ave 61_90 12,894 15,459
Scenario A2
Max 10_39 46,635 45,091 14 -1 57,387 50,294 5 -2
Min 10_39 574 1,726 2 -7
Ave 10_39 12,940 15,399 0 0
Max 70_99 57,659 54,269 41 19 74,055 66,439 35 30
Min 70_99 424 1,370 -24 -26
Ave 70_99 15,147 17,698 17 14
Scenario B2
Max 10_39 45,163 45,271 10 -1 54,016 50,188 -1 -2
Min 10_39 592 1,588 6 -15
Ave 10_39 12,973 15,397 1 0
Max 70_99 55,168 53,181 35 16 62,118 58,696 13 15
Min 70_99 466 1,311 -17 -29
Ave 70_99 13,672 16,140 6 4
Nov-03

49. Scenario CC-Agri: higher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
Monthly discharge (m3/s) % change Daily discharge (m3/s) % change
Sub-basin Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta Mekong 3 Delta Mekng 3 Delta
Max 61_90 40,995 45,681 54,829 51,161
Min 61_90 560 1,857
Ave 61_90 12,894 15,459
Scenario A2
Max 10_39 46,646 45,446 14 -1 57,629 50,533 5 -1
Min 10_39 574 1,726 2 -7
Ave 10_39 12,843 15,230 0 -1
Max 70_99 57,723 54,497 41 19 74,178 66,648 35 30
Min 70_99 424 1,370 -24 -26
Ave 70_99 14,967 17,439 16 13
Scenario B2
Max 10_39 45,504 45,264 11 -1 53,979 50,165 -2 -2
Min 10_39 592 1,484 6 -20
Ave 10_39 12,884 15,245 0 -1
Max 70_99 55,106 53,138 34 16 62,070 58,655 13 15
Min 70_99 466 1,305 -17 -30
Ave 70_99 13,512 15,902 5 3
Nov-03

50. Scenario CC-AgriFor: less severe flood
Monthly discharge (m3/s) % change Daily discharge (m3/s) % change
Mekong Mekong
Sub-basin Mekong 3 Delta 3 Delta Mekong 3 Delta 3 Delta
Max 61_90 40,995 45,681 54,829 51,161
Min 61_90 560 1,857
Ave 61_90 12,894 15,459
Scenario A2
Max 10_39 42,376 43,190 3 -5 57,410 49,928 5 -2
Min 10_39 508 1,634 -9 -12
Ave 10_39 11,905 14,119 -8 -9
Max 70_99 53,370 52,770 30 16 71,874 64,245 31 26
Min 70_99 412 1,356 -26 -27
Ave 70_99 13,809 16,103 7 4
Scenario B2
Max 10_39 44,536 41,725 9 -9 53,068 48,221 -3 -6
Min 10_39 533 1,423 -5 -23
Ave 10_39 11,942 14,132 -7 -9
Max 70_99 54,967 52,735 34 15 66,124 59,099 21 16
Min 70_99 394 1,149 -30 -38
Nov-03

51. Conclusions on basin CC
Adjust GCM data to regional conditions =>
improve regional projections
CC has a clear impact on food & water in all
basins. However, not all changes cause
negative impacts in Env. and/or Food.
Nov-03

52. Socio-Economic
Socio
&
Climate Drivers
What we have done?
Pressures 1. Described ‘Pressures, issues, problems’
‘Issues & Problems’
2. Development of Drivers (population & CC/CV)
Adaptation
strategies
‘State’ Changes
3. Simulation of Changes (food / hydrology)
Stakeholders
4. Development and evaluation of Adaptation str.
Impacts
Impacts
What to be done?
5. Cost benefit analysis
6. Link basin to global scale
7. Stakeholder involvement
Nov-03

53. Link basin strategies to global developments…..
Change in suitability for rain-fed wheat (HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s).
Fisher et al. 2002
Global Water and Agricultural: Climate Variability and Change Assessment
Global model: Mark Rosegrant (IFPRI) / Ken Strzspek (Univ. Colorado)
Nov-03

54. World market Market Food Prices Influenced by Climate Change changes
World
food prices under climate
8
P rices R elative to C u rren t P rices
7
6 MaxPlank B2 2020
MaxPlank B2 2080
5 Hadley A1 2020
4 Hadley A1 2080
Hadley B2 2020
3
Hadley B2 2080
2
1
Rice Wheat Maize Other Grain Soy Cassava and
R&T
Crop
Nov-03

55. !
- Yes, but also White House
effects
Another challenge: adaptation to adaptation strategies
Applied by others, including natural & human systems
(Ex. people in delta have to adapt to local CC and also adapt to strategies of upstream people
=> may we agree a common strategies for the whole basin?)
Nov-03

56. THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION