ISPC8

1. Achim Dobermann
Research Prioritization, IDOs, and
the Post-2015 Sustainable
Development Agenda

2. Jharkhand, Eastern India, September 2013

3. Mandu, Jharkhand, 8 September 2013
A product that meets
a clear demand.

4. • IR74371-70-1-1 (parents: 1 IRRI, 1 TV)
• Cross made in 1997: target was upland rice
• Succession of projects and IRRI breeders (3)
• 1 key NARS (CRURRS) + drought network partners
• Official release in 2009 in JH and OR for RL
• Spreading rapidly in many states through local
partners + IRRI: seed + agronomy
• Funds: CGIAR core, GCP, Cirad, BMZ, IFAD, BMGF,
government, state, ….
• Released and spreading in Bangladesh and Nepal
(e.g., USAID-FtF, BMGF)
• Shared with many other countries and companies
“Rice developed through collaboration”

5. VARIETY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINES
TRAIT DISCOVERY
GENE DISCOVERY
MARKER APPLICATIONS
 Traits
 QTLs, Genes,
DNA-sequences
 DNA-markers,
marker applications
 Product profiles - trait packages
 Varieties, Variety portfolios
 Breeding lines, Parental lines
 Breeder / Foundation seeds
TRAITDEVELOPMENT
E. Nissilae, IRRI

6. Key questions for us
What needs to be done?
How are we going to do it?
How much does it cost?
Where can we find the money?
How can we track it and adjust?

7. Strategic assessment of research
priorities for IRRI in Asia, 2010-2013
• Does IRRI’s greatest potential to benefit the poor
– rest in irrigated or rainfed environments?
– arise in South Asia or Southeast Asia?
– stem from genetic improvement or enhanced
management?
– result from upstream science or downstream adaptation
and delivery?
• Approach: compile and integrate state of the art
understanding, data and tools to evaluate 63
potential technology solutions (IRRI role)
D. Raitzer, IRRI

8. Approach
1. Background
analysis (baseline
scenarios, etc.)
2. Analysis of data
on problem
prevalence
3. Characterization
of scientific
solutions
(assumptions,
timeframes,
effectiveness)
4. Estimation of
outcomes and effects
at scale (adoption,
productivity, supply)
5. Partial
equilibrium
modeling
Output:
Expected
impacts
quantified

9. 1 - IR 2 - IR / other 3 - IR / IR 4 - IR / IR / other 5 - RF 6 - RF / RF 7 - RF / RF other 8 - RF Dry/Upland
New rice agro-ecologies for Asia (ca. 2005)

10. Projected change in harvested area 2012-
2035 (ARIMA, proportion)
D. Raitzer, IRRI

11. Example of constraint characterization output – average area
affected by flooding (proportion harvested area)
D. Raitzer, IRRI

12. Example of constraint
characterization process - biotic
Detailed loss surveys of
456 farms in 6
Production Situations
RICEPEST and Epirice
modeling
Data collected by
3000 Indonesian staff
for 22 years on rice
damage, reconciled
to AEs
Expert
knowledge
Results of on farm
experiments in 6
Production Situations
Estimates

13. Stage 4: Modeling - logistic diffusion
Adoption over time is modeled against a symmetric logistic
diffusion curve by solving for the inflection point using
provided points on the curve by season/ecology/subregion
International research
attributable adoption
identified via
difference between
adoption curve and
delayed availability

14. Overall results
• Gains do not exceed yield gaps
– Total increases in Asian rice production by 2035 due
to the 63 technologies analyzed: 6.4% – 10%
– Total increases in Asian rice production by 2035
attributable to international research: 4.0% – 6.3%
• Gains consistent with research contributions assessed
historically in Asia.
• Includes R&D pipeline at various stages, from basic
research to ready to use products.
D. Raitzer, IRRI

15. Aggregate impact potential (2005 PPP$, discounted
at 5%), low attributable scenario 2013-2035

16. Results by ecology & subregion – total
benefits (2005 PPP$ billions)

17. Results by ecology & subregion – benefits
to the PPP$2 poor (2005 PPP$ billions)

18. Potential international research impacts from 2013
to 2035 – ‘constant’ elasticity with positive shutdown price in “low”
scenario (values in billions of discounted [5%] 2005 PPP$, DALYs in millions)
Host plant
resistance
Abiotic stress
tolerance Inbred yield C4 rice
Hybrid
rice
Other
traits Management Mechanization
Total 3.35 10.92 8.27 2.11 2.28 2.22 7.43 4.14
Consumers 1.31 4.53 3.54 0.85 1.01 0.97 2.79 3.22
Producers 1.84 5.58 4.00 1.07 1.03 1.30 3.72 4.75
Hired labor 0.19 0.76 0.70 0.18 0.23 (0.08) (0.26) (3.87)
Poor consumers 0.37 1.60 1.03 0.22 0.35 0.26 0.84 0.93
Poor producers 0.43 1.82 1.06 0.25 0.32 0.31 0.85 0.67
Poor hired labor 0.10 0.49 0.35 0.09 0.12 (0.04) (0.15) (1.81)
Total poor (PPP2/day) 0.90 3.90 2.44 0.57 0.79 0.53 1.54 (0.21)
DALYs reduced 0.51 2.33 1.98 0.51 0.71 0.49 1.22 1.33
GHG & water 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 1.17 0.04
Germplasm Management related

19. Major individual international rice research solutions (“low”
scenario, positive shutdown price, 2013-2035 surplus effects in million
2005 PPP$ discounted [5%])
Total benefits
Total benefits
to 1.25 poor
(including
labor)
Total benefits
to 2 poor
(including
labor)
DALYs
reduced
GHG &
water
Varieties with increased
attainable yield 5,393 652.0 1,678.4 1.4 21.0
Inbred yield potential 2,874 283.8 760.4 0.6 7.3
Submergence tolerant varieties 2,326 363.6 812.3 0.5 8.1
Hybrid yield potential 2,281 317.7 789.2 0.7 5.6
Introgression of drought QTLs
2,223 472.8 1,034.2 0.6 8.6
Site-specific nutrient mgt. (NPK) 2,227 216.7 556.0 0.3 13.1
C4 rice 2,112 213.7 569.9 0.5 7.5
Salt tolerant varieties for coastal
areas 1,946 299.9 662.2 0.4 4.0
Water-saving irrigation (AWD) 1,469 71.4 158.9 0.1 1,040.0
D. Raitzer, IRRI

20. Results by upstream/downstream

21. What can we use it for?
• Transparent, documented methodology and data:
baseline for subsequent assessments (ex, post)
• Easy to update and tailor to various applications:
scenarios, hypotheses,…
• Internalizes impact thinking and culture
• Discover what we know, and what we don’t know:
guidance for filling critical data gaps
• Guidance for research priorities and fundraising:
exposes many trade-offs

22. How should the CGIAR spend its money?
CRP CRP Title
Actual unpsent
carried forward
from 2012
Expected new
W1for 2013
Expected W2
for 2013
90% OF 2012
expenditure
Proposed
W/W2
allocation
1.1 Drylands Systems 0.9 6.4 8.2 15.5 15.5
1.2 Humid tropics 0.2 8.5 5.0 13.5 13.7
1.3 AAS 4.1 1.9 8.7 7.8 14.7
2 PIM 11.7 7.8 12.9 17.8 32.4
3.1 WHEAT 1.6 5.3 4.8 10.9 11.7
3.2 MAIZE 4.7 9.7 4.2 14.0 18.6
3.3 GRiSP 0 25.8 6.1 31.9 31.9
3.4 RTB 11.3 9.8 12.8 20.1 33.9
3.5 Grain legumes 2.6 11.2 9.3 23.1 23.1
3.6 Dryland cereals 2 6.2 3.4 9.9 11.6
3.7 Livestock and fish 7.5 0.0 15.2 7.4 22.7
4 A4NH 8.1 5.0 16.2 11.4 29.3
5 WLE 6.7 8.3 10.2 21.9 25.2
6
Forests, Trees &
Agroforestry 0.2 19.7 6.6 26.3 26.5
7 CCAFS 4.9 32.8 4.0 36.8 41.7
Gene banks 2.6 8.6 2.2 10.8 13.4
Total CRP 69 167 130 279 366

23. Can this be done in the CGIAR?
• Robust methodology for a new SRF and the
whole CGIAR portfolio?
• Robust methodology for all CRPs?
• What adaptations would be needed? Who will
do it?
• Monitoring mechanisms?

24. 1 Genetic
Resources
2 New
Varieties
3 Production
Systems
5 Targeting
& Policy
6 Regional
Delivery
Global and Regional
R&D Product Lines
2.1. Informatics and MET
2.2. Improved traits
2.3. Stress-tol. rice
2.4. HY irrigated rice
2.5. Hybrid rice
2.6. Healthier rice
Activities Products
Milestones
Regional/National
Initiatives
- System solutions
- Public & private
partners
Outcomes
( Regional)
for target
regions
Impact
4 New Products
& Value Chains
GRiSP R&D
Themes
Partners
• 5-yr work and business plan: 2011-2015
• Interdisciplinary, product-oriented R&D: 94 R&D Products
clustered in 26 Product lines under 6 Themes
• New frontiers research projects
• Capacity building & gender
15-20% 25-30% 20-30% 5-10% 5-10% 10%
GRiSP Themes, Product Lines & Products

25. The Timeline for C4 Rice
Gene
discovery
and
molecular
toolbox
development
Characterize
regulatory
controls
Transform
rice to
express
Kranz
anatomy
and the C4
metabolic
enzymes
Optimize
C4 function
in
transgenic
rice
Breed C4
transgenics
into local
varieties
3 years
3 years
5 years
4 years

26. Theme 1 ----- Theme 2, 3,4 -------------------------- Theme 5 Theme 6
Genes, varieties,
management
technologies,
information
gateway, models,
data, tools,
capacity, etc
Products
locally
adapted and
promoted by
public, NGO,
and private
sector
Products
adopted by
farmers, value
chain actors,
policy makers,
other
stakeholders
Increased
nutritious rice
production
Stable and
affordable
price of rice
Increased
resource use
efficiency
Rural Poverty
Nutrition and
health
Food Security
Sustainability
Products Intermediate Development Outcomes Impact
Development partnerships
Science partnerships
Timeline
Farmers: 1000s 10.000s 100.000s millions
GRiSP
CGIAR SLOs

27. Schematic impact pathway
Product
Pilot site farmer
adopters, and
benefits seen
Large scale
dissemination
Large numbers
of farmers adopt
Increased
productivity
SLO (food security, poverty,
sustainability, H&N)
Collaborative partner
adopters, and
benefits seen
GRiSP
“Outside”
Research outcome –
Intermediate and
end user
Intermediate
development
Outcome (IDO)
5->10 years
3-6 years
6-9 years
9-12 years
>> 12 years
100s
1000s
100,000s
1,000,000s
Farmers

28. GRiSP Theme 1
Genetic Diversity
GRiSP Theme 2
Breeding
GRiSP Theme 5
Policy and Impact
GRiSP Theme 6
Capacity and Delivery
GRiSP Theme 4
Value adding
GRiSP Theme 3
CNRM
SLO1 Rural PovertySLO3 Nutrition and healthSLO2 Food Security SLO4 Sustainability
Gene Bank; Novel
gene pool;
Valuable-trait genes
Breeding tools;
breeding lines; (hybrid)
varieties for biotic and
abiotic stress, high
yield, nutritious value
Resource-use efficient, low
carbon-footprint management
practices; Adaptations to
stresses and Climate Change;
Mechanized and Diversified
systems
Post-harvest technologies,
Strategies for market
access, Specialty rices,
Novel rice-based products
C4 rice
Information and tools
for technology
targeting; Impact
assessments; Global
rice information for
policy analysis
Tools for communication and
Extension; Models and tools
for capacity building;
Platforms for innovation and
delivery; Seed and variety
delivery systems
NARES and ARIs
use tools, genes,
(pre-)breeding lines
to develop improved
local rice varieties
Pro-poor and pro-gender
improved management
practices locally adapted
by NARES and promoted
by public, NGO, and
private sector
Post-harvest technologies,
market-access solutions,
and value-added products
locally adapted by NARES
Local policy makers and
decision takers
enlightened about rice
policy opportunities
Extension, delivery, and
capacity building models
employed by local stakeholders
Functional (public,
NGO, private) local
rice seed delivery
systems/markets
Farmers adopt
improved and
nutritious rice
varieties
Farmers adopt
sustainable and
environmentally-friendly
rice management
practices
Rice value-chain actors
adopt improved post-
harvest practices
New cadre of high-quality rice
researchers and extension
agents; extended partnerships
for delivery and impact at
scale
Policies in place that
support positive
impact from rice
research
Increased rice yield
Increased rice
production
Enhanced
ecosystem resilience
Reduced pesticide
use
Increased water,
labor, and energy
use efficiency
Increased consumption
of nutritious rice
Stable and affordable
price of rice
Increased expandable income on nonrice
items by poor rice farmers (and urban
dwellers)
Stable and sufficient
market availability of
rice
Increased income by
actors in the rice
value chain
Reduced cost of rice
production
Reduced mycotoxin
contamination in rice
Farmers produce value-
added and novel products
Reduced GHG
emissions. carbon
footprint in rice
production Reduced post-
harvest loss in rice
Increased value adding
in the rice value chain
Intermediate
Development
Outcome
Research
Outcome
Outputs: products
End user
Partners
Enablingactions
Local rice seed distribution
systems deployed
Enablingactions
Increased health of rice
farmers and rice
consumers
Urban Poverty
Breeders effectively
access genebank for
trait mining
Improved and
accelerated
variety
development
with novel traits
Increased women
empowerrment
Participation of
women in decision
making
MDG: reduced poverty MDG: increased gender equity

29. GRiSP IDOs
SLO 1: Reduced rural poverty
SLO 2: Improved food security
SLO 3: Improved nutrition and health
SLO 4: Sustainably managed natural resources
# IDO SLOs
1 Increased rice yield 1,2,3
2 Increased rice productivity (or resource-use efficiency) 1,2,3
3 Decreased poverty of net rice consumers (urban and rural) and
rice producers
1
4 Increased sustainability and environmental quality of rice-based
cropping systems
4
5 Improved efficiency and increased value in rice value chain 1,2,3
6 Improved nutrition status derived from rice consumption 3
7 Increased rice genetic diversity for current and future
generations
1,2,3
8 Increased pro-poor and gender-equitable delivery systems for
improved rice technologies
1-4
9 Increased gender equity in the rice value chain 1,2,3

30. Potential performance indicators
Indicator IDO Theme Asia Africa Latin America Global
India-Bihar
India-Odissa
B’desh-South,
coastal
Myanmar-
cebtral,delta
Vietnam-South
Laos,cambodia
Philippines
Nigeria
Ghana
Tanzania
Mozambique
Senegal
Madagascar
Peru,Equador,
Colombia
Venezuela
Dominicanrep.,
Nicaragua
Uruguay,RGS-
Brasil
1 Genetic gain 1 1,2 x x X
2 Farmers’ yield 1 2,3 x x x x X
3 Water productivity 2,4 3
4 Fertilizer productivity 2,4 3
5 Consumer expenditure on rice 3 5 X
6 Income from rice farming 3 5
7 Pesticide use 4 3
8 Greenhouse gas emissions 4 3 X
9 Post-harvest loss 5 4
10 Value added through specialty
products
5 4

31. What is an IDO? How are we going to
measure it?
Are we going to measure real or virtual
performance?
Will this inspire and guide us to do
better research?
Will anyone outside the CGIAR
understand all that?

32. How can the CGIAR contribute to the
post-2015 sustainable development
agenda?
Economic development
Social inclusion
Environmental sustainability
Good governance

33. Post-2015 process work streams
• UN GA session, Sep 25
• Open Working Group
http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org
• UN System Task Team
• High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons
• Sustainable Development Solutions Network
(SDSN), http://unsdsn.org
• National, regional, global and thematic
consultations, http://www.worldwewant2015.org
• UN Global Compact,
http://www.unglobalcompact.org/

34. http://unsdsn.org
03 June 2013

35. 10 Sustainable Development Goals
1. End Extreme Poverty Including Hunger
2. Achieve Development within Planetary Boundaries
3. Ensure Effective Learning for All Children and Youth for Life
and Livelihood
4. Achieve Gender Equality, Social Inclusion, and Human Rights
for All
5. Achieve Health and Wellbeing at All Ages
6. Improve Agricultural Systems and Raise Rural Prosperity
7. Empower Inclusive, Productive and Resilient Cities
8. Curb Human-Induced Climate Change and Ensure Sustainable
Energy
9. Secure Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Good
Management of Natural Resources
10. Transform Governance for Sustainable Development
http://unsdsn.org

36. Goal 6: Improve Agriculture Systems and
Raise Rural Prosperity
Targets:
• 6a. Ensure sustainable food production systems that
achieve high yields with high efficiency of water,
nutrients, and energy, and have low food losses and
waste.
• 6b. Halt forest and wetland conversion to agriculture,
protect soil resources, and ensure that farming systems
are resilient to climatic change and disasters.
• 6c. Ensure universal access in rural areas to basic
resources and infrastructure services (land, water,
sanitation, modern energy, transport, mobile and
broadband communication, agricultural inputs, and
advisory services).

37. Target 6a: Sustainable food production
systems
Indicators:
• Cereal yield growth rate (% p.a.)
• Crop yield gap (actual yield as % of yield potential)
• Livestock and fish productivity growth
• Full-chain nitrogen [phosphorus] use efficiency (%)
• Crop water productivity (tons of harvested product per
unit irrigation water)
• …..
• ……

38. Target 6a: Sustainable food production
systems
Aspirational outcomes:
• Annual yield growth rate of major food crops approaches
or exceeds [1.5]%.
• The majority of farms achieve [80]% of the attainable
water-limited yield potential by 2030.
• Livestock productivity in developing countries doubled by
2030, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Full-chain efficiency of nitrogen and phosphorus
increased by [x]% relative to current levels in each
country with sub-optimal efficiency.
• Water productivity of crop production increased by [30]%
in countries with high water use for irrigation.

39. The CGIAR should adopt the post-2015
framework and terminology
Post-2015 SD
• SDG
• Targets
• Indicators and metrics
for them
• (specific outcomes)
CGIAR
• SLOs
• IDOs
• Indicators
• …
 the timelines for the post-2015 process, a new SRF and a
CRP II portfolio seem to match: 2013-2015

40. Could the CGIAR also step up and - as
a major contribution to the post-2105
agenda - become the world leader in
monitoring the performance of
agriculture in developing countries?

41. Messages
• Embrace the ongoing SDG process and use the
same framework.
• Focus on the unique role of the CGIAR:
outcome-oriented research for SD.
• Do better priority setting at System (SRF) and
CRP level using a uniform, transparent, robust
theory of change and methodology.
• Measure the measurable at critical points along
the R&D pipeline, for faster and greater impact.
• Leave enough room for the unexpected.