Day2: Mr. Rk sinha dgh presentation ippai goa

1. The 14th
Regulators & Policymakers Retreat
1st
– 4th
August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa
Gas Availability Scenario
Rajeev Kumar Sinha
Chief Technical Officer

2. The 14th
Regulators & Policymakers Retreat
1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa
Growth in Primary Energy Demand
Global Energy Demand increases by 1/3rd
, India is a major
contributor for the growth

3. The 14th
Regulators & Policymakers Retreat
1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa
Gas Consumption Growth – 2035
Major Contributor is Developing Economies

4. Demand for LNG almost doubling over the next decade.
Asian Gas Scenario - LNG Demand

5. India – Emerging LNG Market
SOURCE: Gas Industries; GIIGNL; Datamonitor; MoPNG; McKinsey analysis
High case: 75% capacity utilisation
Low case: 50% capacity utilisation
LNG imports
mtpa
86837671
+1% p.a.
202520152010
Japan
34333233
0.1% p.a.
202520152010
South Korea
17151311
+3% p.a.
202520152010
Taiwan
9
13% p.a.
2025
53
35
20
37
15
25
2010
India
564533
9
+13% p.a.
202520152010
China
India has Large Incremental Demand
Asian Gas Scenario

6. Natural gas currently ~11% of India’s energy mix;
Expected to reach 20% by 2030
25%
20%
51%
2%2%
2030
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Evolving Energy Mix – Increasing Share of Gas
12 bcm
58 bcm
26 bcm
200 bcm
India Gas Market Scenario

7. Gap Between Demand and Domestic Supply
60
80 22-26
102-106
120-124
16-20
(BCM)
64- 68GAP
(At current coal & fertilizer
pricing. Will change as
power and fertilizer policy
reforms progress)
SOURCE: McKinsey, GAIL
India Gas Market Scenario

8. Existing and Projected Re-gas Capacity
Source: MOPNG, GAIL
Existing Re-gas capacity : 14.8 MMTPA
Projected Re-gas capacity: 48.5 MMTPA
India Gas Market Scenario

9. The 14th
Regulators & Policymakers Retreat
1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa
Type
Resources In Place
Reserves
Conventional Oil & Gas
206
Billions bbl
72 Billion bbl
(35%)
Unconventional
CBM 92 TCF 9 TCF (10%)
Gas Hydrate
Under evaluation
(~1894 TCM)
Shale Gas
Under evaluation
(1000’s TCF)
Oil Shale
Under evaluation
(~ 3000 MMBBL)
INDIA’S HYDROCARBON RESOURCES

10. The 14th
Regulators & Policymakers Retreat
1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa
DEMAND-SUPPLY Projection

11. The 14th
Regulators & Policymakers Retreat
1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa
Total Discoveries : 180
On Production : 22
Under Development : 14
Commerciality Established : 25
Under Evaluation : 48
Other Stages : 71
Reserves accretion from new
Discoveries (as on 01.04.12) :737 MMT
(Considering Commercial Discoveries) (O+OEG)
Development of Discoveries
158

12. Open
Acreage
Licensing
Policy

13. •Crude Oil Pricing :
International price for Crude Oil
Actual Crude Oil price realization by NOCs under Nomination
regime is less due to subsidy sharing
•Gas Pricing and Utilization :
APM/Non-APM Price for Gas produced by ONGC & OIL
Gas Pricing Formula is approved by GoI under PSC /CBM Contract
regime
Allocation of Gas as per Gas Utilization Policy of Government
ALLOCATION AND PRICING

14. • Gas should be supplied in the following orders of priority :
Gas –Based Urea Fertilizer Plants
LPG Plants
Power Plants supplying power to the Grid/State utilities at regulated
rates under PPA
City Gas Distribution (CGD) Systems for Domestic and Transport
Sectors
Steels/Refineries/Petrochemicals for feedstock purposes
CGD for Industrial and Commercial use
Any other customers for captive and merchant power, feedstock or
fuel purposes
Guidelines introduced for selection of customers for domestic gas
available from small/ isolated fields under NOCs
GAS UTILIZATION POLICY

15. Dr. Rangarajan Committee’s recommendations on
pricing of domestically produced gas:
• Competitive domestic gas price currently does not exist in India
• The recommended domestic gas price in India will be arrived at
by averaging the following:
- Henry Hub price in the US ( for North America)
- National Balancing Point price in UK ( for Europe)
- Netback price at the sources of supply for Japan
- Netback price of Indian LNG import at the wellhead
of the exporting countries
The proposed formula to be applied prospectively across
all sectors.
Proposed Contractual Reforms

16. IEA estimates that India would need a total investment of USD 2306 billion on overall
energy supply infrastructure from 2011- 2035 ( avg USD 92 billion p.a.)
Investment Opportunities
Required energy investment, 2011-35 (USD billion)
Value through Partnerships

17. The 14th
Regulators & Policymakers Retreat
1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa